Fecal microbiota composition is a better predictor of recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection than clinical factors in a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea. Fidaxomicin and fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) are effective, but expensive therapies to treat recurrent CDI (reCDI). Our objective was to develop a prediction model for reCDI based on the gut microbiota composition and clinical characteristics, to identify patients who could benefit from early treatment with fidaxomicin or FMT. METHODS: Multicentre, prospective, observational study in adult patients diagnosed with a primary episode of CDI. Fecal samples and clinical data were collected prior to, and after 5 days of CDI treatment. Follow-up duration was 8 weeks. Microbiota composition was analysed by IS-pro, a bacterial profiling technique based on phylum- and species-specific differences in the 16-23 S interspace regions of ribosomal DNA. Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and adaptive group-regularized logistic ridge regression (AGRR) were used to construct prediction models for reCDI. RESULTS: 209 patients were included, of which 25% developed reCDI. Variables related to microbiota composition provided better prediction of reCDI and were preferentially selected over clinical factors in joint prediction models. Bacteroidetes abundance and diversity after start of CDI treatment, and the increase in Proteobacteria diversity relative to baseline, were the most robust predictors of reCDI. The sensitivity and specificity of a BART model including these factors were 95% and 78%, but these dropped to 67% and 62% in out-of-sample prediction. CONCLUSION: Early microbiota response to CDI treatment is a better predictor of reCDI than clinical prognostic factors, but not yet sufficient enough to predict reCDI in daily practice.

Can we screen less frequently for STI among PrEP users? Assessing the effect of biannual STI screening on timing of diagnosis and transmission risk in the AMPrEP Study.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users are screened quarterly for STIs. We assessed the consequences of less frequent STI testing. We also assessed determinants of asymptomatic STI and potential for onward transmission. METHODS: Using data from the AMPrEP study, we assessed the proportion of syphilis, and genital, anal, and pharyngeal chlamydia and gonorrhoea diagnoses which would have been delayed with biannual versus quarterly screening. We assessed the potential for onward transmission by examining reported condomless anal sex (CAS) in periods after to-be-omitted visits when screening biannually. We assessed determinants of incident asymptomatic STIs using Poisson regression and calculated individual risk scores on the basis of the coefficients from this model. RESULTS: We included 366 participants. Median follow-up was 47 months (IQR 43-50). 1,183STIs were diagnosed, of which 932(79%) asymptomatic. With biannual screening, 483 asymptomatic STIs (52%) diagnoses would have been delayed at 364 study visits. Of these visits, 129 (35%), 240 (66%) and 265 (73%) were followed by periods of CAS with steady, known casual or unknown casual partners, respectively. Older participants had a lower risk of asymptomatic STI (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.86/10-year increase, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.92), while CAS with known (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.68) and unknown (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.34) casual partners and chemsex (IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.78) increased the risk. The individual risk scores had limited predictive value (sensitivity=0.70 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.74), specificity=0.50 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.51)). CONCLUSION: Reducing the STI screening frequency to biannually among PrEP users will likely result in delayed diagnoses, potentially driving onward transmission. Although determinants for asymptomatic STIs were identified, predictive power was low.

Health-related quality of life in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis: A longitudinal population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Data regarding health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are sparse and have only been studied cross-sectionally in a disease which runs a fluctuating and unpredictable course. We aim to describe HRQoL longitudinally by using repeated measurements in a population-based cohort. METHODS: Every 3 months from May 2017 up to August 2020, patients received digital questionnaires at home. These included the EQ-5D, 5-D Itch, patient-based SCCAI and patient-based HBI. The SF-36, measuring HRQoL over eight dimensions as well as a physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) score, was sent annually. Data were compared with Dutch reference data and a matched IBD disease control from the population-based POBASIC cohort. Mixed-effects modelling was performed to identify factors associated with HRQoL. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-eight patients completed 2576 questionnaires. A significant reduction of small clinical relevance in several mean HRQoL scores was found compared with the Dutch reference population: 46.4 versus 48.0, p = .018 for PCS and 47.5 versus 50.5, p = .004 for MCS scores. HRQoL outcomes were significantly negatively associated with coexisting active IBD (PCS -12.2, p < .001 and MCS -12.0, p < .001), which was not the case in case of quiescent IBD. Decreasing HRQoL scores were also negatively associated with increasing age (PCS -0.1 per 10 years, p = .002), female sex (PCS -2.8, p < .001), diagnosis of AIH overlap (PCS -3.7, p = .059), end-stage liver disease (PCS -3.7, p = .015) and presence of itch (PCS -9.2, p < .001 and MCS -3.1, p = .078). The odds of reporting a clinically relevant reduction in EQ-5D scores showed seasonal variation, being lowest in summer (OR = 0.48 relative to spring, p = .037). In patients with liver transplant, HRQoL outcomes were comparable to the Dutch general population. CONCLUSIONS: PSC patients report impaired HRQoL of small clinical relevance compared with the general population. After liver transplantation, HRQoL scores are at comparable levels to the general population. HRQoL scores are associated with potentially modifiable factors such as itch and IBD activity.

Species abundance correlations carry limited information about microbial network interactions.

Unraveling the network of interactions in ecological communities is a daunting task. Common methods to infer interspecific interactions from cross-sectional data are based on co-occurrence measures. For instance, interactions in the human microbiome are often inferred from correlations between the abundances of bacterial phylogenetic groups across subjects. We tested whether such correlation-based methods are indeed reliable for inferring interaction networks. For this purpose, we simulated bacterial communities by means of the generalized Lotka-Volterra model, with variation in model parameters representing variability among hosts. Our results show that correlations can be indicative for presence of bacterial interactions, but only when measurement noise is low relative to the variation in interaction strengths between hosts. Indication of interaction was affected by type of interaction network, process noise and sampling under non-equilibrium conditions. The sign of a correlation mostly coincided with the nature of the strongest pairwise interaction, but this is not necessarily the case. For instance, under rare conditions of identical interaction strength, we found that competitive and exploitative interactions can result in positive as well as negative correlations. Thus, cross-sectional abundance data carry limited information on specific interaction types. Correlations in abundance may hint at interactions but require independent validation.

Ability of epidemiological studies to monitor HPV post-vaccination dynamics: a simulation study.

Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are caused by a broad diversity of genotypes. As available vaccines target a subgroup of these genotypes, monitoring transmission dynamics of nonvaccine genotypes is essential. After reviewing the epidemiological literature on study designs aiming to monitor those dynamics, we evaluated their abilities to detect HPV-prevalence changes following vaccine introduction. We developed an agent-based model to simulate HPV transmission in a heterosexual population under various scenarios of vaccine coverage and genotypic interaction, and reproduced two study designs: post-vs.-prevaccine and vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated comparisons. We calculated the total sample size required to detect statistically significant prevalence differences at the 5% significance level and 80% power. Although a decrease in vaccine-genotype prevalence was detectable as early as 1 year after vaccine introduction, simulations indicated that the indirect impact on nonvaccine-genotype prevalence (a decrease under synergistic interaction or an increase under competitive interaction) would only be measurable after >10 years whatever the vaccine coverage. Sample sizes required for nonvaccine genotypes were >5 times greater than for vaccine genotypes and tended to be smaller in the post-vs.-prevaccine than in the vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated design. These results highlight that previously published epidemiological studies were not powerful enough to efficiently detect changes in nonvaccine-genotype prevalence.

Vaccine Effectiveness Following Routine Immunization With Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine: Protection Against Incident Genital HPV Infections From a Reduced-Dosing Schedule.

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been offered to preadolescent girls via the National Immunization Program in a 2-dose schedule since 2014. The current study estimates vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HPV infections up to 4 years postvaccination among girls eligible for routine 2-dose immunization. METHODS: A cohort study (HAVANA2) was used in which participants annually filled out an online questionnaire and provided a vaginal self-sample for determination of HPV by the SPF10-LiPA25 assay, able to detect 25 HPV types. VE against incident type-specific infections and pooled outcomes was estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model with shared frailty between the HPV types. RESULTS: In total, 2027 girls were included in the study, 1098 (54.2%) of whom were vaccinated with 2 doses. Highest incidence rate was 5.0/1000 person-years (HPV-51) among vaccinated participants and 9.1/1000 person-years (HPV-74) among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted pooled VE was 84.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.0%-96.5%) against incident HPV-16/18 infections and 86.5% (95% CI, 39.5%-97.08%) against cross-protective types HPV-31/33/45. CONCLUSIONS: Four years postvaccination, 2 doses of bivalent HPV vaccine were effective in the prevention of incident HPV-16/18 infections and provided cross-protection to HPV-31/33/45. Our VE estimates rival those from 3-dose schedules, indicating comparable protection by 2-dose schedules.

Evidence-based impact projections of single-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in India: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule. METHODS: In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born. FINDINGS: Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Approximate likelihood-based estimation method of multiple-type pathogen interactions: An application to longitudinal pneumococcal carriage data.

While the serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae are known to compete during colonization in human hosts, our knowledge of how competition occurs is still incomplete. New insights of pneumococcal between-type competition could be generated from carriage data obtained by molecular-based detection methods, which record more complete sets of serotypes involved in co-carriage than when detection is done by culture. Here, we develop a Bayesian estimation method for inferring between-type interactions from longitudinal data recording the presence/absence of the types at discrete observation times. It allows inference from data containing co-carriage of two or more serotypes, which is often the case when pneumococcal presence is determined by molecular-based methods. The computational burden posed by the increased number of types detected in co-carriage is addressed by approximating the likelihood under a multi-state model with the likelihood of only those trajectories with minimum number of acquisition and clearance events between observation times. The proposed method's performance was validated on simulated data. The estimates of the interaction parameters of acquisition and clearance were unbiased in settings with short sampling intervals between observation times. With less frequent sampling, the estimates of the interaction parameters became more biased, but their ratio, which summarizes the total interaction, remained unbiased. Confounding due to unobserved heterogeneity in exposure could be corrected by including individual-level random effects. In an application to empirical data about pneumococcal carriage in infants, we found new evidence for between-serotype competition in clearance, although the effect size was small.

Human Papillomavirus Genotype Replacement: Still Too Early to Tell?

BACKGROUND: Although human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are highly efficacious in protecting against HPV infections and related diseases, vaccination may trigger replacement by nontargeted genotypes if these compete with the vaccine-targeted types. HPV genotype replacement has been deemed unlikely, based on the lack of systematic increases in the prevalence of nonvaccine-type (NVT) infection in the first decade after vaccination, and on the presence of cross-protection for some NVTs. METHODS: To investigate whether type replacement can be inferred from early postvaccination surveillance, we constructed a transmission model in which a vaccine type and an NVT compete through infection-induced cross-immunity. We simulated scenarios of different levels of cross-immunity and vaccine-induced cross-protection to the NVT. We validated whether commonly used measures correctly indicate type replacement in the long run. RESULTS: Type replacement is a trade-off between cross-immunity and cross-protection; cross-immunity leads to type replacement unless cross-protection is strong enough. With weak cross-protection, NVT prevalence may initially decrease before rebounding into type replacement, exhibiting a honeymoon period. Importantly, vaccine effectiveness for NVTs is inadequate for indicating type replacement. CONCLUSIONS: Although postvaccination surveillance thus far is reassuring, it is still too early to preclude type replacement. Monitoring of NVTs remains pivotal in gauging population-level impacts of HPV vaccination.

Population Impact of Girls-Only Human Papillomavirus 16/18 Vaccination in The Netherlands: Cross-Protective and Second-Order Herd Effects.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs achieve substantial population-level impact, with effects extending beyond protection of vaccinated individuals. We assessed trends in HPV prevalence up to 8 years postvaccination among men and women in the Netherlands, where bivalent HPV vaccination, targeting HPV types 16/18, has been offered to (pre)adolescent girls since 2009 with moderate vaccination coverage. METHODS: We used data from the PASSYON study, a survey initiated in 2009 (prevaccination) and repeated biennially among 16- to 24-year-old visitors of sexual health centers. We studied genital HPV positivity from 2009 to 2017 among women, heterosexual men, and unvaccinated women using Poisson generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for individual- and population-level confounders. Trends were studied for 25 HPV types detected by the SPF10-LiPA25 platform. RESULTS: A total of 6354 women (64.7% self-reported unvaccinated) and 2414 heterosexual men were included. Percentual declines in vaccine types HPV-16/18 were observed for all women (12.6% per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10.6-14.5]), heterosexual men (13.0% per year [95% CI, 8.3-17.5]), and unvaccinated women (5.4% per year [95% CI, 2.9-7.8]). We observed significant declines in HPV-31 (all women and heterosexual men), HPV-45 (all women), and in all high-risk HPV types pooled (all women and heterosexual men). Significant increases were observed for HPV-56 (all women) and HPV-52 (unvaccinated women). CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence for first-order herd effects among heterosexual men against HPV-16/18 and cross-protective types. Additionally, we show second-order herd effects against vaccine types among unvaccinated women. These results are promising regarding population-level and clinical impact of girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in a country with moderate vaccine uptake.

Partial Protective Effect of Bivalent Human Papillomavirus 16/18 Vaccination Against Anogenital Warts in a Large Cohort of Dutch Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: There is ongoing debate about the possible protective effect of the bivalent human papillomavirus (2vHPV) vaccine, targeting oncogenic types HPV-16/18, against anogenital warts (AGWs), commonly attributed to HPV-6/11. We performed a retrospective registry-based open cohort study to assess the effect of 2vHPV vaccination on AGWs. METHODS: We linked general practice (ie, primary care) data from women born between 1993 and 2002, who had been eligible for HPV vaccination in the Netherlands, to the Dutch national immunization registry on an individual level. Women were followed until their first AGW diagnosis or end of follow-up. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were estimated using Poisson regression with vaccination status as a time-dependent exposure. RESULTS: We linked data of 96 468 women with a total of 328 019 years observation time and 613 AGW diagnoses (incidence: 1.87/1000 person-years). At the end of follow-up, 61% were 2vHPV vaccinated (≥ 1 dose) of whom 91% were fully vaccinated. The AGW incidence was lower among those with ≥ 1 dose vs 0 doses (aIRR, 0.75 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .64-.88]). The effect of vaccination was stronger after full vaccination (aIRR, 0.72 [95% CI, .61-.86]) and for women who were offered vaccination at 12-13 years of age (aIRR, 0.69 [95% CI, .51-.93]) vs those at 13-16 years of age (aIRR, 0.77 [95% CI, .64-.93]). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest population-based study so far to examine the effect of 2vHPV vaccination on AGWs, with reliable individual information on AGW diagnoses and vaccination status. The results indicate that 2vHPV vaccination partially protects against AGWs, especially when administered in early adolescence.

Estimating the direct effect of human papillomavirus vaccination on the lifetime risk of screen-detected cervical precancer.

Birth cohorts vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) are now entering cervical cancer screening. Assessment of (pre)cancer (CIN3+) risk is needed to assess the residual screening need in vaccinated women. We estimated the lifetime (screen-detected) CIN3+ risk under five-yearly primary HPV screening between age 30 and 60, using HPV genotyping and histology data of 21,287 women participating in a screening trial with two HPV-based screening rounds, 5 years apart. The maximum follow-up after an HPV-positive test was 9 years. We re-estimated the CIN3+ risk after projecting direct vaccine efficacy for the bivalent and the nonavalent HPV vaccines, assuming life-long protection. The lifetime CIN3+ risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.5-4.9) and declined by 53.5% and 70.5% after bivalent vaccination without and with cross-protection, respectively, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 1.9% (1.4-2.4) and 1.2% (0.9-1.5). The CIN3+ risk declined by 88.5% after nonavalent vaccination, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 0.5% (0.2-0.7). The latter risk increased to 1.6% when vaccine protection only lasted until the first screening round at age 30. Among HPV-positive women with abnormal adjunct cytology, the nine-year CIN3+ risk was 16.9% (8.7-32.4) after nonavalent vaccination. In conclusion, HPV vaccination will lead to a strong decline in the lifetime CIN3+ risk and the remaining absolute CIN3+ risk will be very low. Primary HPV testing combined with adjunct cytology at five-year intervals still seems feasible even after nonavalent vaccination, although unlikely to be cost-effective. Our results support a de-intensification of screening programs in settings with high vaccination coverage.

Bivalent Vaccine Effectiveness Against Anal Human Papillomavirus Positivity Among Female Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinic Visitors in the Netherlands.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are indicated for anal cancer prevention, but evidence for vaccine effectiveness (VE) against anal HPV infections among women is limited. We estimated the VE (≥1 dose) against anal HPV positivity of the bivalent vaccine, whose target types HPV-16/18 are associated with approximately 90% of HPV-related anal cancers. Among 548 female STI clinic visitors 16-24 years old who provided an anal swab sample as part of a repeated cross-sectional survey, VE against HPV-16/18 was 89.9% (95% confidence interval, 63.0%-97.2%). Type-specific VE correlated well with VE against cervicovaginal HPV (Spearman ρ = 0.76), suggesting comparable effectiveness of HPV-16/18 vaccination against genital and anal infections.

Evidence for Missing Positive Results for Human Papilloma Virus 45 (HPV-45) and HPV-59 with the SPF10-DEIA-LiPA25 (Version 1) Platform Compared to Type-Specific Real-Time Quantitative PCR Assays and Impact on Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) epidemiological and vaccine studies require highly sensitive HPV detection systems. The widely used broad-spectrum SPF10-DEIA-LiPA25 (SPF10 method) has reduced sensitivity toward HPV-45 and -59. Therefore, anogenital samples from the PASSYON study were retrospectively analyzed with type-specific (TS) HPV-45 and -59 real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. The SPF10 method missed 51.1% of HPV-45 and 76.1% of HPV-59 infections that were detected by the TS qPCR assays. The viral copy number (VCn) of SPF10-missed HPV-45 and -59 was significantly lower than SPF10-detected HPV-45 and -59 (P < 0.0001 for both HPV types). Sanger sequencing showed no phylogenetic distinction between SPF10-missed and SPF10-detected HPV-59 variants, but variants bearing the A6562G single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the SPF10 target region were more likely to be missed (P = 0.0392). HPV cooccurrence slightly influenced the detection probability of HPV-45 and -59 with the SPF10 method. Moreover, HPV-59 detection with the SPF10 method was hampered more in nonvaccinated women than vaccinated women, likely due to a stronger masking effect by increased HPV cooccurrence in the former group. Consequently, the SPF10 method led to a strong negative vaccine effectiveness (VE) of -84.6% against HPV-59, while the VE based on TS qPCR was 3.1%. For HPV-45, the relative increase in detection in nonvaccinated women compared vaccinated women was more similar, resulting in comparable VE estimates. In conclusion, this study shows that HPV-45 and -59 detection with the SPF10 method is dependent on factors including VCn, HPV cooccurrence, and vaccination, thereby showing that knowledge of the limitations of the HPV detection method used is of great importance.

Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Effectiveness Correlates With Phylogenetic Distance From HPV Vaccine Types 16 and 18.

To substantiate cross-protection reported across AS04-adjuvanted bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (2vHPV) studies, we reevaluated vaccine effectiveness against type-specific HPV positivity as a function of phylogenetic distance to vaccine target types HPV-16 and -18. We provide evidence of sustained cross-protection up to 8 years postvaccination in a high-risk population in the Netherlands. Moreover, our findings suggest that genomic distance better explains cross-protection than distance measures based on capsid antigens only. Taken together, 2vHPV is predicted to provide partial cross-protection against HPV-31, -33, -35, -45, -52, and possibly -58, that is, acknowledged oncogenic types with close phylogenetic relationships to HPV-16 or -18.

Assessment of herd effects among women and heterosexual men after girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination in the Netherlands: A repeated cross-sectional study.

Data on the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on the population HPV prevalence are largely obtained from women. We assessed the impact of the girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination program in the Netherlands that started in 2009, on trends in HPV prevalence among women and heterosexual men, using data from the PASSYON study. In this cross-sectional study, the HPV prevalence among 16- to 24-year-old visitors to sexually transmitted infection clinics was assessed in 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015. We compared the genital postvaccination HPV prevalence with the prevaccination prevalence (2009) using Poisson GEE models. In total, we included 4,996 women and 1,901 heterosexual men. The percentage of women who reported to be vaccinated increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 37% in 2015. Among all women, the HPV16/18 prevalence decreased from 23% prevaccination to 15% in 2015 (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 0.62, ptrend < 0.01). Among heterosexual men, the HPV16/18 prevalence decreased from 17% prevaccination to 11% in 2015 (aPR 0.52, ptrend < 0.01). Of the heterosexual men with a steady partner, HPV16/18 prevalence was lower among those whose steady partner had been vaccine-eligible in the national immunization program (aPR 0.13). Among unvaccinated women, the HPV16/18 prevalence in 2015 was not different from prevaccination. The decreasing HPV16/18 prevalence among heterosexual men and the reduced HPV16/18 prevalence among heterosexual men with a vaccine-eligible steady partner strongly suggests herd protection from girls-only vaccination. Absence of notable herd effects among unvaccinated women 6 years postvaccination may be due to the moderate vaccine uptake among girls in the Netherlands.

Potential effectiveness of prophylactic HPV immunization for men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: A multi-model approach.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for anal cancer, primarily related to human papillomavirus genotype 16 (HPV16) infections. At 8.5 per 100,000 per year, the incidence rate of anal cancer among MSM is similar to that of cervical cancer among adult women in the Netherlands. However, MSM are not included in most HPV vaccination programs. We explored the potential effectiveness of prophylactic immunization in reducing anogenital HPV16 transmission among MSM in the Netherlands. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a range of mathematical models for penile-anal HPV16 transmission, varying in sexual contact structure and natural history of infection, to provide robust and plausible predictions about the effectiveness of targeted vaccination. Models were informed by an observational cohort study among MSM in Amsterdam, 2010-2013. Parameters on sexual behavior and HPV16 infections were obtained by fitting the models to data from 461 HIV-negative study participants, considered representative of the local MSM population. We assumed 85% efficacy of vaccination against future HPV16 infections as reported for HIV-negative MSM, and age-specific uptake rates similar to those for hepatitis B vaccination among MSM in the Netherlands. Targeted vaccination was contrasted with vaccination of 12-year-old boys at 40% uptake in base-case scenarios, and we also considered the effectiveness of a combined strategy. Offering vaccine to MSM without age restrictions resulted in a model-averaged 27.3% reduction (90% prediction interval [PI] 11.9%-37.5%) in prevalence of anal HPV16 infections, assuming similar uptake among MSM as achieved for hepatitis B vaccination. The predicted reduction improved to 46.1% (90% PI 21.8%-62.4%) if uptake rates among MSM were doubled. The reductions in HPV16 infection prevalence were mostly achieved within 30 years of a targeted immunization campaign, during which they exceeded those induced by vaccinating 40% of preadolescent boys, if started simultaneously. The reduction in anal HPV16 prevalence amounted to 74.8% (90% PI 59.8%-93.0%) under a combined vaccination strategy. HPV16 prevalence reductions mostly exceeded vaccine coverage projections among MSM, illustrating the efficiency of prophylactic immunization even when the HPV vaccine is given after sexual debut. Mode of protection was identified as the key limitation to potential effectiveness of targeted vaccination, as the projected reductions were strongly reduced if we assumed no protection against future infections in recipients with prevalent infection or infection-derived immunity at the time of immunization. Unverified limitations of our study include the sparsity of data to inform the models, the omission of oral sex in transmission to the penile or anal site, and the restriction that our modeling results apply primarily to HIV-negative MSM. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that targeted vaccination may generate considerable reductions in anogenital HPV16 infections among MSM, and has the potential to accelerate anal cancer prevention, especially when combined with sex-neutral vaccination in preadolescence.

Estimating the Human Papillomavirus Genotype Attribution in Screen-detected High-grade Cervical Lesions.

BACKGROUND: Genotype attribution in high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+) can be calculated by the hierarchical or proportional method, but these do not account for the genotype distribution in the general population and cannot assess the number of genotype-specific high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+). METHODS: We present a statistical method for estimating genotype-specific CIN3+ risks and genotype attribution in CIN3+ from cervical screening samples. A key assumption is that genotype-specific infections in women with multiple infections have independent progression risks. We applied the method to 512 human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women referred for colposcopy and validated it by laser-capture microscopy-polymerase chain reaction. We also compared performance by simulation. RESULTS: For endpoint CIN3+, the summed deviation of attributable fractions between the estimated genotype-specific attributable fractions and laser-capture microscopy polymerase chain reaction-based attributable fractions was similar for the three methods: 0.17 for the new method (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.091, 0.28), 0.19 (95% CI = 0.11, 0.33) for the hierarchical method and 0.15 (95% CI = 0.085, 0.26) for the proportional method. Simulations indicated that the new method outperformed the other methods for endpoint CIN3+ when the number of HPV-positive women was large. Exclusion of HPV16-positive women had only a small effect on the estimated genotype-specific risks, supporting the independence assumption. CONCLUSIONS: Genotype-specific attribution in CIN3+ can be accurately predicted by a model that assumes independence between genotypes with respect to disease progression. The method can be used to monitor HPV vaccine effectiveness for prevention of genotype-specific CIN3+ and to assess disease risk after vaccination.

Bivalent Vaccine Effectiveness Against Type-Specific HPV Positivity: Evidence for Cross-Protection Against Oncogenic Types Among Dutch STI Clinic Visitors.

Background: Observational postmarketing studies are important to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimated VE from the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine against HPV positivity of vaccine and nonvaccine types in a high-risk population. Methods: We included all vaccine-eligible women from the PASSYON study, a biennial cross-sectional survey in Dutch sexually transmitted infection clinics. Vaginal swabs were analyzed using a polymerase chain reaction-based assay (SPF10-LiPA25) able to detect the 12 high-risk HPV (hrHPV) types 16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59. We compared hrHPV positivity between self-reported vaccinated (≥1 dose) and unvaccinated women, and estimated VE by a logistic mixed model. Results: We included 1087 women of which 53% were hrHPV positive and 60% reported to be vaccinated. The adjusted pooled VE against HPV-16/18 was 89.9% (81.7%-94.4%). Moreover, we calculated significant VE against nonvaccine types HPV-45 (91%), HPV-35 (57%), HPV-31 (50%), and HPV-52 (37%). Among women who were offered vaccination 5/6 years ago, we estimated similar VE against HPV-16/18 (92%) and all hrHPV types (35%) compared to women who were offered vaccination <5 years ago (83% and 33%, respectively). Conclusion: We demonstrated high VE of the bivalent vaccine against HPV-16/18 and cross-protection against HPV-45/35/31/52. Protection against HPV-16/18 was sustained up to 6 years postvaccination.

Inferring Pathogen Type Interactions Using Cross-sectional Prevalence Data: Opportunities and Pitfalls for Predicting Type Replacement.

BACKGROUND: Many multivalent vaccines target only a subset of all pathogenic types. If vaccine and nonvaccine types compete, vaccination may lead to type replacement. The plausibility of type replacement has been assessed using the odds ratio (OR) of co-infections in cross-sectional prevalence data, with OR > 1 being interpreted as low risk of type replacement. The usefulness of the OR as a predictor for type replacement is debated, as it lacks a theoretical justification, and there is no framework explaining under which assumptions the OR predicts type replacement. METHODS: We investigate the values that the OR can take based on deterministic S usceptible- I infected- S usceptible and S usceptible- Infected- Recovered- S usceptible multitype transmission models. We consider different mechanisms of type interactions and explore parameter values ranging from synergistic to competitive interactions. RESULTS: We find that OR > 1 might mask competition because of confounding due to unobserved common risk factors and cross-immunity, as indicated by earlier studies. We prove mathematically that unobserved common risk factors lead to an elevation of the OR, and present an intuitive explanation why cross-immunity increases the OR. We find that OR < 1 is predictive for type replacement in the absence of immunity. With immunity, OR < 1 remains predictive under biologically reasonable assumptions of unidirectional interactions during infection, and an absence of immunity-induced synergism. CONCLUSIONS: Using the OR in cross-sectional data to predict type replacement is justified, but is only unambiguous under strict assumptions. An accurate prediction of type replacement requires pathogen-specific knowledge on common risk factors and cross-immunity.