Influences on emergency department attendance among frail older people with deteriorating health: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the patterns and influences on repeated emergency department attendance among frail older people with deteriorating health. STUDY DESIGN: Multicentre prospective cohort study (International Access Rights and Empowerment II study) with convergent mixed methods design. METHODS: Eligible patients were aged ≥65 years, with Clinical Frailty Score ≥5, and ≥1 hospital admission or ≥2 acute attendances in the previous 6 months. Questionnaires were administered to participants over 6 months and we extracted clinical data from the medical records. We conducted modified Poisson multivariable regression analysis to identify factors associated with repeated emergency department attendance (≥2 over 6 months) and thematic analysis of qualitative interviews. RESULTS: A total of 90 participants were recruited. The mean age was 84 years, and 63% were women. Of 87 participants, 21 experienced repeated emergency department attendance. Severe and/or overwhelming pain (adjusted prevalence ratio 2.44, 95% confidence interval 1.17-5.11), greater number of comorbidities (1.32, 1.08-1.62), ≥10 community nursing contacts (2.93, 1.31-6.56), and a total of ≥2 weeks spent in hospital during the previous 6 months (2.91, 1.24-6.84) were associated with repeated attendance. From 45 interviews, we identified influences on emergency department attendance: 1. inaccessibility of community healthcare; 2. perceived barriers to community healthcare seeking; 3. perceived benefits of hospital admission; 4. barriers to recovery during previous hospital admission (unsuitable food, inactivity); and 5. poorly coordinated transitions between settings. CONCLUSIONS: We identified missed opportunities to optimise older people's recovery during hospital admission, such as improved food and a timely and coordinated discharge, which may reduce reattendances. Proactive care in the community with systematic assessment of symptoms may be required, particularly for those with multimorbidity.

The stability of care preferences following acute illness: a mixed methods prospective cohort study of frail older people.

BACKGROUND: Patient preferences are integral to person-centred care, but preference stability is poorly understood in older people, who may experience fluctuant illness trajectories with episodes of acute illness. We aimed to describe, and explore influences on the stability of care preferences in frail older people following recent acute illness. METHODS: Mixed-methods prospective cohort study with dominant qualitative component, parallel data collection and six-month follow up. STUDY POPULATION: age ≥ 65, Rockwood Clinical Frailty score ≥ 5, recent acute illness requiring acute assessment/hospitalisation. Participants rated the importance of six preferences (to extend life, improve quality of life, remain independent, be comfortable, support 'those close to me', and stay out of hospital) at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks using a 0-4 scale, and ranked the most important. A maximum-variation sub-sample additionally contributed serial in-depth qualitative interviews. We described preference stability using frequencies and proportions, and undertook thematic analysis to explore influences on preference stability. RESULTS: 90/192 (45%) of potential participants consented. 82/90 (91%) answered the baseline questionnaire; median age 84, 63% female. Seventeen undertook qualitative interviews. Most participants consistently rated five of the six preferences as important (range 68-89%). 'Extend life' was rated important by fewer participants (32-43%). Importance ratings were stable in 61-86% of cases. The preference ranked most important was unstable in 82% of participants. Preference stability was supported by five influences: the presence of family support; both positive or negative care experiences; preferences being concordant with underlying values; where there was slowness of recovery from illness; and when preferences linked to long term goals. Preference change was related to changes in health awareness, or life events; if preferences were specific to a particular context, or multiple concurrent preferences existed, these were also more liable to change. CONCLUSIONS: Preferences were largely stable following acute illness. Stability was reinforced by care experiences and the presence of family support. Where preferences were unstable, this usually related to changing health awareness. Consideration of these influences during preference elicitation or advance care planning will support delivery of responsive care to meet preferences. Obtaining longer-term data across diverse ethnic groups is needed in future research.

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. METHODS: We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. RESULTS: By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. CONCLUSIONS: If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need.