Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems.

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass-fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Conditional vulnerability of plant diversity to atmospheric nitrogen deposition across the United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has been shown to decrease plant species richness along regional deposition gradients in Europe and in experimental manipulations. However, the general response of species richness to N deposition across different vegetation types, soil conditions, and climates remains largely unknown even though responses may be contingent on these environmental factors. We assessed the effect of N deposition on herbaceous richness for 15,136 forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland sites across the continental United States, to address how edaphic and climatic conditions altered vulnerability to this stressor. In our dataset, with N deposition ranging from 1 to 19 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1), we found a unimodal relationship; richness increased at low deposition levels and decreased above 8.7 and 13.4 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1) in open and closed-canopy vegetation, respectively. N deposition exceeded critical loads for loss of plant species richness in 24% of 15,136 sites examined nationwide. There were negative relationships between species richness and N deposition in 36% of 44 community gradients. Vulnerability to N deposition was consistently higher in more acidic soils whereas the moderating roles of temperature and precipitation varied across scales. We demonstrate here that negative relationships between N deposition and species richness are common, albeit not universal, and that fine-scale processes can moderate vegetation responses to N deposition. Our results highlight the importance of contingent factors when estimating ecosystem vulnerability to N deposition and suggest that N deposition is affecting species richness in forested and nonforested systems across much of the continental United States.

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event.

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western United States. Given this increase, there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation, and water balance on fire-severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate-severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high-severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high-severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. The proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high-severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate-severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

Effects of invasive plants on fire regimes and postfire vegetation diversity in an arid ecosystem.

We assessed the impacts of co-occurring invasive plant species on fire regimes and postfire native communities in the Mojave Desert, western USA. We analyzed the distribution and co-occurrence patterns of three invasive annual grasses (Bromus rubens, Bromus tectorum, and Schismus spp.) known to alter fuel conditions and community structure, and an invasive forb (Erodium cicutarium) which dominates postfire sites. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for each of the four taxa and analyzed field plot data to assess the relationship between invasives and fire frequency, years postfire, and the impacts on postfire native herbaceous diversity. Most of the Mojave Desert is highly suitable for at least one of the four invasive species, and 76% of the ecoregion is predicted to have high or very high suitability for the joint occurrence of B. rubens and B. tectorum and 42% high or very high suitability for the joint occurrence of the two Bromus species and E. cicutarium. Analysis of cover from plot data indicated two or more of the species occurred in 77% of the plots, with their cover doubling with each additional species. We found invasive cover in burned plots increased for the first 20 years postfire and recorded two to five times more cover in burned than unburned plots. Analysis also indicated that native species diversity and evenness as negatively associated with higher levels of relative cover of the four invasive taxa. Our findings revealed overlapping distributions of the four invasives; a strong relationship between the invasives and fire frequency; and significant negative impacts of invasives on native herbaceous diversity in the Mojave. This suggests predicting the distributions of co-occurring invasive species, especially transformer species, will provide a better understanding of where native-dominated communities are most vulnerable to transformations following fire or other disturbances.

Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur pollution increased over much of the United States during the twentieth century from fossil fuel combustion and industrial agriculture. Despite recent declines, nitrogen and sulfur deposition continue to affect many plant communities in the United States, although which species are at risk remains uncertain. We used species composition data from >14,000 survey sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate the association between nitrogen and sulfur deposition and the probability of occurrence for 348 herbaceous species. We found that the probability of occurrence for 70% of species was negatively associated with nitrogen or sulfur deposition somewhere in the contiguous United States (56% for N, 51% for S). Of the species, 15% and 51% potentially decreased at all nitrogen and sulfur deposition rates, respectively, suggesting thresholds below the minimum deposition they receive. Although more species potentially increased than decreased with nitrogen deposition, increasers tended to be introduced and decreasers tended to be higher-value native species. More vulnerable species tended to be shorter with lower tissue nitrogen and magnesium. These relationships constitute predictive equations to estimate critical loads. These results demonstrate that many herbaceous species may be at risk from atmospheric deposition and can inform improvements to air quality policies in the United States and globally.

A multi-scale evaluation of pack stock effects on subalpine meadow plant communities in the Sierra Nevada.

We evaluated the influence of pack stock (i.e., horse and mule) use on meadow plant communities in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks in the Sierra Nevada of California. Meadows were sampled to account for inherent variability across multiple scales by: 1) controlling for among-meadow variability by using remotely sensed hydro-climatic and geospatial data to pair stock use meadows with similar non-stock (reference) sites, 2) accounting for within-meadow variation in the local hydrology using in-situ soil moisture readings, and 3) incorporating variation in stock use intensity by sampling across the entire available gradient of pack stock use. Increased cover of bare ground was detected only within "dry" meadow areas at the two most heavily used pack stock meadows (maximum animals per night per hectare). There was no difference in plant community composition for any level of soil moisture or pack stock use. Increased local-scale spatial variability in plant community composition (species dispersion) was detected in "wet" meadow areas at the two most heavily used meadows. These results suggest that at the meadow scale, plant communities are generally resistant to the contemporary levels of recreational pack stock use. However, finer-scale within-meadow responses such as increased bare ground or spatial variability in the plant community can be a function of local-scale hydrological conditions. Wilderness managers can improve monitoring of disturbance in Sierra Nevada meadows by adopting multiple plant community indices while simultaneously considering local moisture regimes.

Detecting the influence of rare stressors on rare species in Yosemite National Park using a novel stratified permutation test.

Statistical models often use observational data to predict phenomena; however, interpreting model terms to understand their influence can be problematic. This issue poses a challenge in species conservation where setting priorities requires estimating influences of potential stressors using observational data. We present a novel approach for inferring influence of a rare stressor on a rare species by blending predictive models with nonparametric permutation tests. We illustrate the approach with two case studies involving rare amphibians in Yosemite National Park, USA. The endangered frog, Rana sierrae, is known to be negatively impacted by non-native fish, while the threatened toad, Anaxyrus canorus, is potentially affected by packstock. Both stressors and amphibians are rare, occurring in ~10% of potential habitat patches. We first predict amphibian occupancy with a statistical model that includes all predictors but the stressor to stratify potential habitat by predicted suitability. A stratified permutation test then evaluates the association between stressor and amphibian, all else equal. Our approach confirms the known negative relationship between fish and R. sierrae, but finds no evidence of a negative relationship between current packstock use and A. canorus breeding. Our statistical approach has potential broad application for deriving understanding (not just prediction) from observational data.

A network extension of species occupancy models in a patchy environment applied to the Yosemite Toad (Anaxyrus canorus).

A central challenge of conservation biology is using limited data to predict rare species occurrence and identify conservation areas that play a disproportionate role in regional persistence. Where species occupy discrete patches in a landscape, such predictions require data about environmental quality of individual patches and the connectivity among high quality patches. We present a novel extension to species occupancy modeling that blends traditional predictions of individual patch environmental quality with network analysis to estimate connectivity characteristics using limited survey data. We demonstrate this approach using environmental and geospatial attributes to predict observed occupancy patterns of the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus (= Bufo) canorus) across >2,500 meadows in Yosemite National Park (USA). A. canorus, a Federal Proposed Species, breeds in shallow water associated with meadows. Our generalized linear model (GLM) accurately predicted ~84% of true presence-absence data on a subset of data withheld for testing. The predicted environmental quality of each meadow was iteratively 'boosted' by the quality of neighbors within dispersal distance. We used this park-wide meadow connectivity network to estimate the relative influence of an individual Meadow's 'environmental quality' versus its 'network quality' to predict: a) clusters of high quality breeding meadows potentially linked by dispersal, b) breeding meadows with high environmental quality that are isolated from other such meadows, c) breeding meadows with lower environmental quality where long-term persistence may critically depend on the network neighborhood, and d) breeding meadows with the biggest impact on park-wide breeding patterns. Combined with targeted data on dispersal, genetics, disease, and other potential stressors, these results can guide designation of core conservation areas for A. canorus in Yosemite National Park.

On the nature of identity fusion: insights into the construct and a new measure.

Previous research has documented the consequences of feeling fused with a group; here we examine the nature of identity fusion. Specifically, we sought to determine what fusion is and the mediating mechanisms that lead fused individuals to make extraordinary sacrifices for their group. Guided by the assumption that fusion emphasizes the extent to which people develop relational ties to the group, we developed a measure designed to capture feelings of connectedness and reciprocal strength with the group. In 10 studies, the newly developed scale displayed predicted relationships with related measures, including an earlier (pictorial) measure of fusion and a measure of group identification. Also as expected, fusion scores were independent of several measures of personality and identity. Moreover, the scale predicted endorsement of extreme progroup behaviors with greater fidelity than did an earlier pictorial measure of identity fusion, which was, in turn, superior to a measure of group identification. Earlier evidence that the personal and social selves of fused persons are functionally equivalent was replicated, and it was shown that feelings of agency and invulnerability mediated the effects of fusion on extreme behavior. Finally, Spanish- and English-language versions of the verbal fusion scale showed similar factor structure as well as evidence of convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity in samples of Spaniards and Americans, as well as immigrants from 22 different countries. This work advances a new perspective on the interplay between social and personal identity.