A cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstove intervention to prevent pneumonia in children under 5 years old in rural Malawi (the Cooking and Pneumonia Study): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: WHO estimates exposure to air pollution from cooking with solid fuels is associated with over 4 million premature deaths worldwide every year including half a million children under the age of 5 years from pneumonia. We hypothesised that replacing open fires with cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstoves would reduce pneumonia incidence in young children. METHODS: We did a community-level open cluster randomised controlled trial to compare the effects of a cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstove intervention to continuation of open fire cooking on pneumonia in children living in two rural districts, Chikhwawa and Karonga, of Malawi. Clusters were randomly allocated to intervention and control groups using a computer-generated randomisation schedule with stratification by site, distance from health centre, and size of cluster. Within clusters, households with a child under the age of 4·5 years were eligible. Intervention households received two biomass-fuelled cookstoves and a solar panel. The primary outcome was WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI)-defined pneumonia episodes in children under 5 years of age. Efficacy and safety analyses were by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN59448623. FINDINGS: We enrolled 10 750 children from 8626 households across 150 clusters between Dec 9, 2013, and Feb 28, 2016. 10 543 children from 8470 households contributed 15 991 child-years of follow-up data to the intention-to-treat analysis. The IMCI pneumonia incidence rate in the intervention group was 15·76 (95% CI 14·89-16·63) per 100 child-years and in the control group 15·58 (95% CI 14·72-16·45) per 100 child-years, with an intervention versus control incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1·01 (95% CI 0·91-1·13; p=0·80). Cooking-related serious adverse events (burns) were seen in 19 children; nine in the intervention and ten (one death) in the control group (IRR 0·91 [95% CI 0·37-2·23]; p=0·83). INTERPRETATION: We found no evidence that an intervention comprising cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstoves reduced the risk of pneumonia in young children in rural Malawi. Effective strategies to reduce the adverse health effects of household air pollution are needed. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Collecting standardised urban health indicator data at an individual level for adults living in urban areas: methodology from EURO-URHIS 2.

Background: An aim of the EURO-URHIS 2 project was to collect standardised data on urban health indicators (UHIs) relevant to the health of adults resident in European urban areas. This article details development of the survey instruments and methodologies to meet this aim. 32 urban areas from 11 countries conducted the adult surveys. Using a participatory approach, a standardised adult UHI survey questionnaire was developed mainly comprised of previously validated questions, followed by translation and back-translation. An evidence-based survey methodology with extensive training was employed to ensure standardised data collection. Comprehensive UK piloting ensured face validity and investigated the potential for response bias in the surveys. Each urban area distributed 800 questionnaires to age-sex stratified random samples of adults following the survey protocols. Piloting revealed lower response rates in younger males from more deprived areas. Almost 19500 adult UHI questionnaires were returned and entered from participating urban areas. Response rates were generally low but varied across Europe. The participatory approach in development of survey questionnaires and methods using an evidence-based approach and extensive training of partners has ensured comparable UHI data across heterogeneous European contexts. The data provide unique information on health and determinants of health in adults living in European urban areas that could be used to inform urban health policymaking. However, piloting has revealed a concern that non-response bias could lead to under-representation of younger males from more deprived areas. This could affect the generalisability of findings from the adult surveys given the low response rates.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]). INTERPRETATION: Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Lung function in woodsmoke-exposed Guatemalan children following a chimney stove intervention.

RATIONALE: Household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuel combustion is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, with considerable impact from respiratory infections in children. The impact of HAP on lung function is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The Childhood Exposure to Respirable Particulate Matter (CRECER) prospective cohort study followed Guatemalan children who participated in the Randomised Exposure Study of Pollution Indoors and Respiratory Effects (RESPIRE) trial of a chimney stove intervention to determine the effect of early childhood HAP exposure on growth of lung function. METHODS: RESPIRE households with pregnant women or infant children were randomised to receive a chimney stove at the beginning or at the end of the 18-month trial. During CRECER, a subset of these children, as well as children from households with newly installed stoves, were followed with spirometry beginning at age 5. Biomass smoke exposure was measured using personal carbon monoxide tubes. Two-stage regression models were employed to analyse associations with lung function growth. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Longitudinal peak expiratory flow (PEF) and FEV1 data were available for 443 and 437 children, respectively, aged 5-8 (mean follow-up 1.3 years). Decreases in PEF growth of 173 mL/min/year (95% CI -341 to -7) and FEV1 of 44 mL/year (95% CI -91 to 4) were observed with stove installation at 18 months compared with stove installation at birth in analyses adjusted for multiple covariates. No statistically significant associations were observed between personal HAP exposure and lung function. CONCLUSIONS: A significant decrease in PEF growth and a large non-significant decrease in FEV1 growth were observed with later stove installation. Additional studies including longer follow-up and cleaner stoves or fuels are needed.

Use of Temperature Sensors to Determine Exclusivity of Improved Stove Use and Associated Household Air Pollution Reductions in Kenya.

Household air pollution (HAP) contributes to 3.5-4 million annual deaths globally. Recent interventions using improved cookstoves (ICS) to reduce HAP have incorporated temperature sensors as stove use monitors (SUMs) to assess stove use. We deployed SUMs in an effectiveness study of 6 ICSs in 45 Kenyan rural homes. Stove were installed sequentially for 2 weeks and kitchen air monitoring was conducted for 48 h during each 2-week period. We placed SUMs on the ICSs and traditional cookstoves (TCS), and the continuous temperature data were analyzed using an algorithm to examine the number of cooking events, days of exclusive use of ICS, and how stove use patterns affect HAP. Stacking, defined as using both a TCS and an ICS in the same day, occurred on 40% of the study days, and exclusive use of the ICS occurred on 25% of study days. When researchers were not present, ICS use declined, which can have implications for long-term stove adoption in these communities. Continued use of TCSs was also associated with higher HAP levels. SUMs are a valuable tool for characterizing stove use and provide additional information to interpret HAP levels measured during ICS intervention studies.

Clean fuels for resource-poor settings: A systematic review of barriers and enablers to adoption and sustained use.

BACKGROUND: Access to, and sustained adoption of, clean household fuels at scale remains an aspirational goal to achieve sufficient reductions in household air pollution (HAP) in order to impact on the substantial global health burden caused by reliance on solid fuels. AIM AND OBJECTIVES: To systematically appraise the current evidence base to identify: (i) which factors enable or limit adoption and sustained use of clean fuels (namely liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), biogas, solar cooking and alcohol fuels) in low- and middle-income countries; (ii) lessons learnt concerning equitable scaling-up of programmes of cleaner cooking fuels in relation to poverty, urban-rural settings and gender. METHODS: A mixed-methods systematic review was conducted using established review methodology and extensive searches of published and grey literature sources. Data extraction and quality appraisal of quantitative, qualitative and case studies meeting inclusion criteria were conducted using standardised methods with reliability checking. FINDINGS: Forty-four studies from Africa, Asia and Latin America met the inclusion criteria (17 on biogas, 12 on LPG, 9 on solar, 6 on alcohol fuels). A broad range of inter-related enabling and limiting factors were identified for all four types of intervention, operating across seven pre-specified domains (i.e. fuel and technology characteristics, household and setting characteristics, knowledge and perceptions, financial, tax and subsidy aspects, market development, regulation, legislation and standards, and programme and policy mechanisms) and multiple levels (i.e. household, community, national). All domains matter and the majority of factors are common to all clean fuels interventions reviewed although some are fuel and technology-specific. All factors should therefore be taken into account and carefully assessed during planning and implementation of any small- and large-scale initiative aiming at promoting clean fuels for household cooking. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations in quantity and quality of the evidence this systematic review provides a useful starting point for the design, delivery and evaluation of programmes to ensure more effective adoption and use of LPG, biogas, alcohol fuels and solar cooking. FUNDING: This review was funded by the Department for International Development (DfID) of the United Kingdom. The authors would also like to thank the Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co-ordinating Centre (EPPI-Centre) for their technical support.

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Does household use of biomass fuel cause lung cancer? A systematic review and evaluation of the evidence for the GBD 2010 study.

BACKGROUND: Around 2.4 billion people use traditional biomass fuels for household cooking or heating. In 2006, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded emissions from household coal combustion are a Group 1 carcinogen, while those from biomass were categorised as 2A due to epidemiologic limitations. This review updates the epidemiologic evidence and provides risk estimates for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study. METHODS: Searches were conducted of 10 databases to July 2012 for studies of clinically diagnosed or pathologically confirmed lung cancer associated with household biomass use for cooking and/or heating. FINDINGS: Fourteen eligible studies of biomass cooking or heating were identified: 13 had independent estimates (12 cooking only), all were case-control designs and provided 8221 cases and 11 342 controls. The ORs for lung cancer risk with biomass for cooking and/or heating were OR 1.17 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.37) overall, and 1.15 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.37) for cooking only. Publication bias was not detected, but more than half the studies did not explicitly describe a clean reference category. Sensitivity analyses restricted to studies with adequate adjustment and a clean reference category found ORs of 1.21 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.39) for men (two reports, compiling five studies) and 1.95 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.27) for women (five reports, compiling eight studies). Exposure-response evidence was seen for men, and higher risk for women in developing compared with developed countries, consistent with higher exposures in the former. CONCLUSIONS: There is now stronger evidence for biomass fuel use causing lung cancer, but future studies need better exposure assessment to strengthen exposure-response evidence.

Health impacts of anthropogenic biomass burning in the developed world.

Climate change policies have stimulated a shift towards renewable energy sources such as biomass. The economic crisis of 2008 has also increased the practice of household biomass burning as it is often cheaper than using oil, gas or electricity for heating. As a result, household biomass combustion is becoming an important source of air pollutants in the European Union.This position paper discusses the contribution of biomass combustion to pollution levels in Europe, and the emerging evidence on the adverse health effects of biomass combustion products.Epidemiological studies in the developed world have documented associations between indoor and outdoor exposure to biomass combustion products and a range of adverse health effects. A conservative estimate of the current contribution of biomass smoke to premature mortality in Europe amounts to at least 40 000 deaths per year.We conclude that emissions from current biomass combustion products negatively affect respiratory and, possibly, cardiovascular health in Europe. Biomass combustion emissions, in contrast to emissions from most other sources of air pollution, are increasing. More needs to be done to further document the health effects of biomass combustion in Europe, and to reduce emissions of harmful biomass combustion products to protect public health.

The role of mixed methods in improved cookstove research.

The challenge of promoting access to clean and efficient household energy for cooking and heating is a critical issue facing low- and middle-income countries today. Along with clean fuels, improved cookstoves (ICSs) continue to play an important part in efforts to reduce the 4 million annual premature deaths attributed to household air pollution. Although a range of ICSs are available, there is little empirical evidence on appropriate behavior change approaches to inform adoption and sustained used at scale. Specifically, evaluations using either quantitative or qualitative methods provide an incomplete picture of the challenges in facilitating ICS adoption. This article examines how studies that use the strengths of both these approaches can offer important insights into behavior change in relation to ICS uptake and scale-up. Epistemological approaches, study design frameworks, methods of data collection, analytical approaches, and issues of validity and reliability in the context of mixed methods ICS research are examined, and the article presents an example study design from an evaluation study in Kenya incorporating a nested approach and a convergent case oriented design. The authors discuss the benefits and methodological challenges of mixed-methods approaches in the context of researching behavior change and ICS use recognizing that such methods represent relatively uncharted territory. The authors propose that more published examples are needed to provide frameworks for other researchers seeking to apply mixed methods in this context and suggest a comprehensive research agenda is required that incorporates integrated mixed-methods approaches, to provide best evidence for future scale-up.

Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. FINDINGS: We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. INTERPRETATION: Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. FUNDING: WHO.

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. METHODS: We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UK's rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. FINDINGS: For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimer's disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. INTERPRETATION: The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Millions dead: how do we know and what does it mean? Methods used in the comparative risk assessment of household air pollution.

In the Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) done as part of the Global Burden of Disease project (GBD-2010), the global and regional burdens of household air pollution (HAP) due to the use of solid cookfuels, were estimated along with 60+ other risk factors. This article describes how the HAP CRA was framed; how global HAP exposures were modeled; how diseases were judged to have sufficient evidence for inclusion; and how meta-analyses and exposure-response modeling were done to estimate relative risks. We explore relationships with the other air pollution risk factors: ambient air pollution, smoking, and secondhand smoke. We conclude with sensitivity analyses to illustrate some of the major uncertainties and recommendations for future work. We estimate that in 2010 HAP was responsible for 3.9 million premature deaths and ∼4.8% of lost healthy life years (DALYs), ranking it highest among environmental risk factors examined and one of the major risk factors of any type globally.

Determinants of care seeking for children with pneumonia and diarrhea in Guatemala: implications for intervention strategies.

OBJECTIVES: We identified barriers to care seeking for pneumonia and diarrhea among rural Guatemalan children. METHODS: A population-based survey was conducted twice from 2008 to 2009 among 1605 households with children younger than 5 years. A 14-day calendar recorded episodes of carer-reported pneumonia (n = 364) and diarrhea (n = 481), and formal (health services, public, private) and informal (neighbors, traditional, local shops, pharmacies) care seeking. RESULTS: Formal care was sought for nearly half of severe pneumonias but only for 27% within 2 days of onset, with 31% and 18%, respectively, for severe diarrhea. In multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with formal care seeking were knowing the Community Emergency Plan, mother's perception of illness severity, recognition of World Health Organization danger signs, distance from the health center, and having someone to care for family in an emergency. CONCLUSIONS: Proximal factors associated with recognizing need for care were important in determining formal care, and were strongly linked to social determinants. In addition to specific action by the health system with an enhanced community health worker role, a systems approach can help ensure barriers are addressed among poorer and more remote homes.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS: In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION: Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Promoting health and advancing development through improved housing in low-income settings.

There is major untapped potential to improve health in low-income communities through improved housing design, fittings, materials and construction. Adverse effects on health from inadequate housing can occur through a range of mechanisms, both direct and indirect, including as a result of extreme weather, household air pollution, injuries or burns, the ingress of disease vectors and lack of clean water and sanitation. Collaborative action between public health professionals and those involved in developing formal and informal housing could advance both health and development by addressing risk factors for a range of adverse health outcomes. Potential trade-offs between design features which may reduce the risk of some adverse outcomes whilst increasing the risk of others must be explicitly considered.

State and national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use: results from measurements and modeling in India for estimation of the global burden of disease.

BACKGROUND: Previous global burden of disease (GBD) estimates for household air pollution (HAP) from solid cookfuel use were based on categorical indicators of exposure. Recent progress in GBD methodologies that use integrated-exposure-response (IER) curves for combustion particles required the development of models to quantitatively estimate average HAP levels experienced by large populations. Such models can also serve to inform public health intervention efforts. Thus, we developed a model to estimate national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use in India, together with estimates for 29 states. METHODS: We monitored 24-hr household concentrations of PM2.5, in 617 rural households from 4 states in India on a cross-sectional basis between November 2004 and March 2005. We then, developed log-linear regression models that predict household concentrations as a function of multiple, independent household level variables available in national household surveys and generated national / state estimates using The Indian National Family and Health Survey (NFHS 2005). RESULTS: The measured mean 24-hr concentration of PM2.5 in solid cookfuel using households ranged from 163 µg/m3 (95% CI: 143,183; median 106; IQR: 191) in the living area to 609 µg/m3 (95% CI: 547,671; median: 472; IQR: 734) in the kitchen area. Fuel type, kitchen type, ventilation, geographical location and cooking duration were found to be significant predictors of PM2.5 concentrations in the household model. k-fold cross validation showed a fair degree of correlation (r = 0.56) between modeled and measured values. Extrapolation of the household results by state to all solid cookfuel-using households in India, covered by NFHS 2005, resulted in a modeled estimate of 450 µg/m3 (95% CI: 318,640) and 113 µg/m3 (95% CI: 102,127) , for national average 24-hr PM2.5 concentrations in the kitchen and living areas respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model affords substantial improvement over commonly used exposure indicators such as "percent solid cookfuel use" in HAP disease burden assessments, by providing some of the first estimates of national average HAP levels experienced in India. Model estimates also add considerable strength of evidence for framing and implementation of intervention efforts at the state and national levels.

Control of household air pollution for child survival: estimates for intervention impacts.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels affects 2.8 billion people in developing countries, including children and pregnant women. The aim of this review is to propose intervention estimates for child survival outcomes linked to HAP. METHODS: Systematic reviews with meta-analysis were conducted for ages 0-59 months, for child pneumonia, adverse pregnancy outcomes, stunting and all-cause mortality. Evidence for each outcome was assessed against Bradford-Hill viewpoints, and GRADE used for certainty about intervention effect size for which all odds ratios (OR) are presented as protective effects. RESULTS: Reviews found evidence linking HAP exposure with child ALRI, low birth weight (LBW), stillbirth, preterm birth, stunting and all-cause mortality. Most studies were observational and rated low/very low in GRADE despite strong causal evidence for some outcomes; only one randomised trial was eligible.Intervention effect (OR) estimates of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.75) for ALRI, 0.71 (0.65, 0.79) for LBW and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for stillbirth are proposed, specific outcomes for which causal evidence was sufficient. Exposure-response evidence suggests this is a conservative estimate for ALRI risk reduction expected with sustained, low exposure. Statistically significant protective ORs were also found for stunting [OR=0.79 (0.70, 0.89)], and in one study of pre-term birth [OR=0.70 (0.54, 0.90)], indicating these outcomes would also likely be reduced. Five studies of all-cause mortality had an OR of 0.79 (0.70, 0.89), but heterogenity precludes a reliable estimate for mortality impact. Although interventions including clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves are available and can deliver low exposure levels, significant challenges remain in achieving sustained use at scale among low-income households. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing exposure to HAP could substantially reduce the risk of several child survival outcomes, including fatal pneumonia, and the proposed effects could be achieved by interventions delivering low exposures. Larger impacts are anticipated if WHO air quality guidelines are met. To achieve these benefits, clean fuels should be adopted where possible, and for other households the most effective solid fuel stoves promoted. To strengthen evidence, new studies with thorough exposure assessment are required, along with evaluation of the longer-term acceptance and impacts of interventions.

Effect of reduction in household air pollution on childhood pneumonia in Guatemala (RESPIRE): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia causes more child deaths than does any other disease. Observational studies have indicated that smoke from household solid fuel is a significant risk factor that affects about half the world's children. We investigated whether an intervention to lower indoor wood smoke emissions would reduce pneumonia in children. METHODS: We undertook a parallel randomised controlled trial in highland Guatemala, in a population using open indoor wood fires for cooking. We randomly assigned 534 households with a pregnant woman or young infant to receive a woodstove with chimney (n=269) or to remain as controls using open woodfires (n=265), by concealed permuted blocks of ten homes. Fieldworkers visited homes every week until children were aged 18 months to record the child's health status. Sick children with cough and fast breathing, or signs of severe illness were referred to study physicians, masked to intervention status, for clinical examination. The primary outcome was physician-diagnosed pneumonia, without use of a chest radiograph. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT). Infant 48-h carbon monoxide measurements were used for exposure-response analysis after adjustment for covariates. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN29007941. FINDINGS: During 29,125 child-weeks of surveillance of 265 intervention and 253 control children, there were 124 physician-diagnosed pneumonia cases in intervention households and 139 in control households (rate ratio [RR] 0·84, 95% CI 0·63-1·13; p=0·257). After multiple imputation, there were 149 cases in intervention households and 180 in controls (0·78, 0·59-1·06, p=0·095; reduction 22%, 95% CI -6% to 41%). ITT analysis was undertaken for secondary outcomes: all and severe fieldworker-assessed pneumonia; severe (hypoxaemic) physician-diagnosed pneumonia; and radiologically confirmed, RSV-negative, and RSV-positive pneumonia, both total and severe. We recorded significant reductions in the intervention group for three severe outcomes-fieldworker-assessed, physician-diagnosed, and RSV-negative pneumonia--but not for others. We identified no adverse effects from the intervention. The chimney stove reduced exposure by 50% on average (from 2·2 to 1·1 ppm carbon monoxide), but exposure distributions for the two groups overlapped substantially. In exposure-response analysis, a 50% exposure reduction was significantly associated with physician-diagnosed pneumonia (RR 0·82, 0·70-0·98), the greater precision resulting from less exposure misclassification compared with use of stove type alone in ITT analysis. INTERPRETATION: In a population heavily exposed to wood smoke from cooking, a reduction in exposure achieved with chimney stoves did not significantly reduce physician-diagnosed pneumonia for children younger than 18 months. The significant reduction of a third in severe pneumonia, however, if confirmed, could have important implications for reduction of child mortality. The significant exposure-response associations contribute to causal inference and suggest that stove or fuel interventions producing lower average exposures than these chimney stoves might be needed to substantially reduce pneumonia in populations heavily exposed to biomass fuel air pollution. FUNDING: US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHO.