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Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.
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Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Proteínas Oncogênicas Virais , Neoplasias Orofaríngeas , Infecções por Papillomavirus , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Papillomavirus Humano , Marcadores Genéticos , Fatores de Risco , Papillomavirus Humano 16/genética , Anticorpos Antivirais , Fatores de Transcrição/genética , Proteínas Oncogênicas Virais/genéticaRESUMO
The well-known gene-environment interaction between alcohol consumption and aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) genotype in upper aerodigestive tract cancer risk may improve our ability to identify high-risk subjects. Here, we developed and validated risk prediction models for this cancer in Japanese men and evaluated whether adding the gene-environment interaction to the model improved the predictive performance. We developed two case-cohort datasets in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study: one from subjects in the baseline survey for model development (108 cases and 4049 subcohort subjects) and the second from subjects in the 5-year follow-up survey for model validation (31 cases and 1527 subcohort subjects). We developed an environmental model including age, smoking status, and alcohol consumption, and a gene-environment interaction model including age, smoking status, and the combination of alcohol consumption and the ALDH2 genotype. We found a statistically significant gene-environment interaction for alcohol consumption and the ALDH2 genotype. The c-index for the gene-environment interaction model (0.71) was slightly higher than that for the environmental model (0.67). The values of integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement for the gene-environment interaction model were also slightly higher than those for the environmental model. Goodness-of-fit tests suggested that the models were well calibrated. Results from external model validation by the 5-year follow-up survey were consistent with those from the model development by the baseline survey. The addition of a gene-environment interaction to a lifestyle-based model might improve the performance to estimate the probability of developing upper aerodigestive tract cancer for Japanese men.
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Aldeído-Desidrogenase Mitocondrial/genética , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/genética , Neoplasias Esofágicas/genética , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Adulto , Idoso , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/genética , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/patologia , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/patologia , Neoplasias Esofágicas/patologia , Interação Gene-Ambiente , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Although intake of highly sugary foods is considered to be a potential risk factor for colorectal cancer through hyperinsulinemia, the association of sugar intake and colorectal adenoma, a precursor lesion to most colorectal cancer, is poorly understood, particularly in Asian populations. We undertook a cross-sectional study in a Japanese population to investigate the association between dietary sugar intake and the prevalence of colorectal adenoma. Study subjects were selected from participants who underwent magnifying colonoscopy with dye spraying as part of a cancer screening program and who responded to a self-administered questionnaire before the colonoscopy. A total of 738 cases with colorectal adenoma and 697 controls were enrolled. Dietary intakes of glucose, fructose, galactose, sucrose, maltose, lactose, and total sugars (sum of these six mono- or disaccharides) were calculated from a food frequency questionnaire, and divided into quartiles based on the distribution among controls. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of colorectal adenoma were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Total sugar intake was not significantly associated with the prevalence of colorectal adenoma (odds ratio for the highest intake group compared to reference group = 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.73; P for trend = .34). Furthermore, no statistically significant positive associations were observed for any of the six mono- or disaccharides. Findings were similar on additional analyses by site, size, and number of adenomas. Our findings do not support an association between high sugar intake and increased odds ratios of colorectal adenoma.
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Adenoma/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Açúcares da Dieta/efeitos adversos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Adenoma/induzido quimicamente , Adulto , Idoso , Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais/induzido quimicamente , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Estudos Transversais , Dieta/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Frutose/efeitos adversos , Galactose/efeitos adversos , Glucose/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , Lactose/efeitos adversos , Masculino , Maltose/efeitos adversos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estado Nutricional , Fatores de Risco , Sacarose/efeitos adversos , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
To elucidate the individual impacts of insulin and blood glucose on cancer risk, we investigated the association of plasma C-peptide, a surrogated marker of insulin and glycated albumin (GA), a more stable marker of blood glucose, with all-site and site-specific cancer risk by mutually accounting for their confounding effects. The study was prospectively conducted with nearly 4,000 cancer cases arising in our population-based cohort of 33,736 subjects who answered the baseline questionnaire and supplied blood samples. After exclusion of subjects with apparent DM, analysis was done in 3,036 cancer cases and 3,667 subcohort subjects. Among men and women combined, highest levels of C-peptide were statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of all-site [Hazard ratio (HR): 1.21; 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.42], colon [1.73; 1.20-2.47], liver [3.23; 1.76-5.91], kidney, renal pelvis and ureter cancers [2.47; 1.07-5.69], compared to the respective lowest levels, after adjustment for GA levels. Among these C-peptide-related cancers, colon and liver cancers also showed an increased risk associated with elevated GA levels independently of C-peptide levels. The corresponding HRs for colon and liver cancers compared to the highest and lowest GA levels were 1.43 [1.02-2.00] and 2.02 [1.15-3.55], respectively. Effect modification by gender was only evident for the association between C-peptide and colon cancer (p for interaction = 0.04). Higher insulin levels, independently of higher blood glucose levels, may be relevant to DM-related carcinogenesis for several cancer sites. Examination of circulating insulin levels is a plausible option in evaluating cancer risk even in individuals who have not developed DM.
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Peptídeo C/sangue , Neoplasias/sangue , Albumina Sérica/metabolismo , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Povo Asiático , Feminino , Produtos Finais de Glicação Avançada , Humanos , Japão , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/etnologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Medição de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Risco , Albumina Sérica GlicadaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: A marker is needed to identify individuals at risk for pancreatic cancer. Increases in branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) have been associated with pancreatic cancer. We performed a prospective case-control study to study the association between plasma BCAA levels and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large cohort. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study selected from 30,239 eligible participants 40-69 years old within the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study. Over 16.4 years, 170 newly diagnosed pancreatic cancer cases were identified. Each case was matched to 2 controls by age, gender, geographic area, and fasting time at blood collection. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic cancer were calculated using conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Increased plasma BCAA levels at baseline were associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer. Compared with the lowest quartile of BCAA levels, the OR in the highest quartile was 2.43 (95% CI 1.21-4.90), and the OR per 1 SD increase in BCAA levels was 1.32 (95% CI 1.05-1.67). The association was especially strong for cases with blood samples collected at least 10 years before cancer diagnosis (OR per SD 1.60, 95% CI 1.10-2.32) compared with those detected less than 10 years before diagnosis (OR per SD 1.16, 95% CI 0.86-1.57). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study, we found an association between increased plasma BCAA level and increased risk of pancreatic cancer-particularly when the increase in BCAAs was observed at least 10 years before diagnosis. These findings add to the growing body of evidence for the association between BCAA levels and pancreatic cancer risk.
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Aminoácidos de Cadeia Ramificada/sangue , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/etiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/sangue , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Although the impact of tobacco consumption on the occurrence of lung cancer is well-established, risk estimation could be improved by risk prediction models that consider various smoking habits, such as quantity, duration, and time since quitting. We constructed a risk prediction model using a population of 59 161 individuals from the Japan Public Health Center (JPHC) Study Cohort II. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact of age, gender, and smoking-related factors (cumulative smoking intensity measured in pack-years, age at initiation, and time since cessation). Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates were calculated with consideration of the competing risk of death from other causes. Finally, the model was externally validated using 47 501 individuals from JPHC Study Cohort I. A total of 1210 cases of lung cancer occurred during 986 408 person-years of follow-up. We found a dose-dependent effect of tobacco consumption with hazard ratios for current smokers ranging from 3.78 (2.00-7.16) for cumulative consumption ≤15 pack-years to 15.80 (9.67-25.79) for >75 pack-years. Risk decreased with time since cessation. Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates ranged from 0.04% to 11.14% in men and 0.07% to 6.55% in women. The model showed good predictive performance regarding discrimination (cross-validated c-index = 0.793) and calibration (cross-validated χ2 = 6.60; P-value = .58). The model still showed good discrimination in the external validation population (c-index = 0.772). In conclusion, we developed a prediction model to estimate the probability of developing lung cancer based on age, gender, and tobacco consumption. This model appears useful in encouraging high-risk individuals to quit smoking and undergo increased surveillance.
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Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidade , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/etiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Few prospective studies have investigated the etiology of brain tumor, especially among Asian populations. Both coffee and green tea are popular beverages, but their relation with brain tumor risk, particularly with glioma, has been inconsistent in epidemiological studies. In this study, we evaluated the association between coffee and greed tea intake and brain tumor risk in a Japanese population. We evaluated a cohort of 106,324 subjects (50,438 men and 55,886 women) in the Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study (JPHC Study). Subjects were followed from 1990 for Cohort I and 1993 for Cohort II until December 31, 2012. One hundred and fifty-seven (70 men and 87 women) newly diagnosed cases of brain tumor were identified during the study period. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for the association between coffee or green tea consumption and brain tumor risk were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. We found a significant inverse association between coffee consumption and brain tumor risk in both total subjects (≥3 cups/day; HR = 0.47, 95%CI = 0.22-0.98) and in women (≥3 cups/day; HR = 0.24, 95%CI = 0.06-0.99), although the number of cases in the highest category was small. Furthermore, glioma risk tended to decrease with higher coffee consumption (≥3 cups/day; HR = 0.54, 95%CI = 0.16-1.80). No association was seen between green tea and brain tumor risk. In conclusion, our study suggested that coffee consumption might reduce the risk of brain tumor, including that of glioma, in the Japanese population.
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Neoplasias Encefálicas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Encefálicas/etiologia , Café , Comportamento de Ingestão de Líquido , Chá , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Japão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Gradação de Tumores , Vigilância da População , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Risco , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
Coffee is a commonly consumed beverage which contains several potential anticarcinogenic and chemopreventive compounds, and has been hypothesized to have protective effects in colorectal neoplasia. However, the limited available data on coffee consumption in relation to colorectal adenoma (CRA), a precursor lesion to most colorectal cancers, remain largely inconsistent. In this study, we evaluated the association of coffee intake with the risk of CRA in a middle-aged Japanese population. Study subjects were selected from examinees who underwent total colonoscopy as part of a cancer screening program and responded to self-administered dietary and lifestyle questionnaires. A total of 738 patients with adenoma and 697 controls were included in the study. Coffee intake was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire, and divided into quartiles based on the distribution among controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of CRA, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. High coffee consumption was associated with a reduced risk of CRA, with a multivariate-adjusted OR for the highest versus lowest quartile of coffee intake of 0.67 (95% CI = 0.48-0.93; ptrend = 0.02). The inverse association of coffee intake was limited to proximal (OR = 0.64; 95%CI = 0.44-0.95; ptrend = 0.04) and distal colon adenoma (OR = 0.62; 95%CI = 0.39-0.99; ptrend = 0.06), and appeared to be more evident with small (OR = 0.68; 95%CI = 0.49-0.96; ptrend = 0.04) and single adenomas (OR = 0.65; 95%CI = 0.44-0.95; ptrend = 0.02). Green tea intake was not found to be associated with CRA risk. This study provides support for the protective effect of coffee drinking on colon adenomas, a precursor of colon cancer.
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Adenoma/prevenção & controle , Café/química , Neoplasias Colorretais/prevenção & controle , Substâncias Protetoras/uso terapêutico , Adenoma/diagnóstico , Adenoma/etnologia , Adulto , Idoso , Povo Asiático/estatística & dados numéricos , Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/etnologia , Dieta , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Comportamento Alimentar , Feminino , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Razão de Chances , Substâncias Protetoras/química , Fatores de Risco , Inquéritos e Questionários , TóquioRESUMO
Microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX1) plays an important role in the activation and detoxification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, carcinogens found in cigarette smoke. Polymorphisms in exon 3 (Y113H) and exon 4 (H139R) of the EPHX1 have been associated with enzyme activity. We investigated the risk of colorectal cancer in relation to the EPHX1 Y113H and H139R polymorphisms and assessed effect modifications of cigarette smoking and the other covariates. The interaction between the EPHX1 polymorphisms and selected genetic polymorphisms was also examined. We used data from Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study, a community-based case-control study, including 685 cases and 778 controls. In-person interviews were conducted to assess lifestyle factors. The EPHX1 Y113H and H139R polymorphisms were determined by the TaqMan assay and the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism, respectively. Neither of the two polymorphisms nor the imputed EPHX1 phenotype was associated with colorectal cancer risk. Cigarette smoking and alcohol intake showed no effect modification on the association with the EPHX1 polymorphisms or the imputed EPHX1 phenotype. Increased risks of colorectal cancer associated with the 113Y allele and imputed EPHX1 phenotype were observed among individuals with high body mass index (BMI; ≥25.0 kg/m(2)), but not among those with low BMI (<25.0 kg/m(2)). The risk decreased with an increasing number of the 139R allele in the null genotypes of GSTM1/GSTT1. It is unlikely that the EPHX1 polymorphisms play an important role in colorectal carcinogenesis. The observed interactions of the EPHX1 polymorphisms with BMI and the GSTM1/GSTT1 genotypes warrant further investigation.
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Neoplasias Colorretais/etiologia , Epóxido Hidrolases/genética , Polimorfismo Genético , Fumar , Idoso , Alelos , Índice de Massa Corporal , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Feminino , Genótipo , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Razão de Chances , RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A considerable interest has been drawn to potential protective effects of bilirubin against oxidative stress-related diseases. Smoking is known to be associated with lower concentrations of serum bilirubin, but other behavioral correlates of serum bilirubin have not been well studied. In this cross-sectional study, we examined the associations of behavioral and clinical factors with serum total bilirubin in Japanese men and women. METHOD: The study subjects comprised of 4802 men and 6414 women aged 49-76 years who participated in the baseline survey of an ongoing cohort study on lifestyle-related diseases in Fukuoka, Japan. With consideration to time of the day of blood sampling and fasting hours, the associations with smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, physical activity, coffee, tea, blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), HDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol with serum bilirubin were evaluated by analysis of covariance and multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: While smoking was negatively associated with serum bilirubin, alcohol consumption was positively associated with serum bilirubin in both men and women. Coffee consumption was associated with lower bilirubin concentrations in both sexes. In the multiple linear regression analysis, HDL cholesterol was positively and HbA1c was negatively associated with bilirubin in both men and women, and the associations were more evident in women. CONCLUSION: Smoking, alcohol use and coffee consumption were important behavioral correlates of serum bilirubin in Japanese men and women. Serum HDL cholesterol was a measurable clinical correlate of bilirubin in women.
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is well known as a strong risk factor for both of end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular disease. To clarify the association of polymorphisms in the genes encoding antioxidant enzymes (SOD2, CAT, GPx, TXNRD, SEPP1, SEP15 and SELS) with the risk of CKD in Japanese, we examined this association using the cross-sectional data of Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort (J-MICC) Study. The subjects were 3,285 men and women, aged 35-69 years, selected from J-MICC Study participants for whom genotyping were conducted by multiplex polymerase chain reaction-based Invader assay. The prevalence of CKD was determined for CKD stages 3-5 (eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). When those with CAT C-262T C/C were defined as reference, those with CAT C-262T C/T demonstrated the OR for CKD of 0.67 (95% CI 0.43-1.06) with the marginally significant trend for decreased odds ratio with increasing numbers of T allele (p = 0.070). There were no significant associations between the other polymorphisms with CKD risk. The present study found a marginally significant trend of the decreased risk of CKD with increasing numbers of T allele of CAT, which may suggest the possibility of personalized risk estimation of this life-limiting disease in the near future.
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BACKGROUND: Oxidative stress has been implicated in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Bilirubin is a potent endogenous antioxidant, and coffee is a major source of exogenous antioxidants. Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), a marker of oxidative stress, is a strong predictor of the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study evaluated the effect modification of bilirubin and coffee consumption on the association of serum GGT with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and the combined effect of bilirubin and coffee on HbA1c concentrations. METHODS: The subjects were 4492 men and 6242 women aged 49-76 years who participated in the baseline survey of an on-going cohort study on lifestyle-related diseases in Fukuoka, Japan. Geometric means of HbA1c were examined according to quartile categories of GGT, with stratification by serum total bilirubin (≥ 0.6 mg/dL versus less in men and ≥ 0.5 mg/dL versus less in women) and coffee consumption (< 1, 1-3 and ≥ 4 cups of per day). Statistical adjustment was made for age, smoking, alcohol use and body mass index by using analysis of covariance. RESULTS: HbA1 concentrations increased progressively with increasing levels of GGT in both men and women. The increasing trend of HbA1c concentrations associated with GGT did not differ by either bilirubin status or coffee consumption. Both men and women with high bilirubin had consistently lower concentrations of HbA1c across the GGT quartiles. Higher coffee consumption was associated with lower concentrations of HbA1c in women with low bilirubin (trend P = 0.04), but not with high bilirubin (trend P = 0.37). There was no such association between coffee and HbA1c in men with either low or high bilirubin levels. CONCLUSIONS: Bilirubin is possibly protective against deterioration of glucose metabolism. Further studies are needed regarding the combined effect of bilirubin and coffee on glucose metabolism.
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PURPOSE: We evaluated personality dimensions captured by an abbreviated 8-item questionnaire and examined associations of the personality traits with health behaviours and subjective well-being (SWB) measures. METHODS: The subjects were 11,554 participants in the Kyushu University Fukuoka Cohort Study who completed a self-administered questionnaire inquiring health behaviours, morbidity, personality, and SWB. Personality was assessed by using a questionnaire appeared to capture neuroticism and extraversion traits, and SWB-related variables were assessed with 3 single-item questions. RESULTS: Neuroticism was negatively and extraversion was positively associated with BMI. Extraversion, but not neuroticism, was positively associated with smoking and alcohol drinking. After multivariate adjustment, neuroticism was strongly associated with each of 3 SWB measures. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratios for the highest versus lowest quintile of neuroticism were 6.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.05-7.33) for perceived stress; 0.21 (95% CI, 0.18-0.25) for good health condition; and 0.26 (95% CI, 0.22-0.31) for life satisfaction. Extraversion showed no clear association with the SWB measures. CONCLUSIONS: The neuroticism and extraversion scales were associated with health behaviours and BMI differently. The neuroticism scale, but not the extraversion scale, was strongly associated with higher perception of stress, poorer perceived health, and lower satisfaction with life in a Japanese population.
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Transtornos de Ansiedade/epidemiologia , Transtornos de Ansiedade/psicologia , Extroversão Psicológica , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , Estilo de Vida , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neuroticismo , Psicometria , Qualidade de Vida , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
Purpose of the review: The goal of this review is to highlight emerging biomarker research by the key phases of the cancer continuum and outline the methodological considerations for biomarker application. Recent findings: While biomarkers have an established role in targeted therapy and to some extent, disease monitoring, their role in early detection and survivorship remains to be elucidated. With the advent of omics technology, the discovery of biomarkers has been accelerated exponentially, therefore careful consideration to ensure an unbiased study design and robust validity is crucial. Summary: The rigor of biomarker research holds the key to the success of precision health care. The potential clinical utility and the feasibility of implementation should be central to future biomarker research study design.
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BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality globally. Early detection through risk-based screening can markedly improve prognosis. However, most risk models were developed in North American cohorts of smokers, whereas less is known about risk profiles for never-smokers, which represent a growing proportion of lung cancers, particularly in Asian populations. METHODS: Based on the China Kadoorie Biobank, a population-based prospective cohort of 512 639 adults with up to 12 years of follow-up, we built Asian Lung Cancer Absolute Risk Models (ALARM) for lung cancer mortality using flexible parametric survival models, separately for never and ever-smokers, accounting for competing risks of mortality. Model performance was evaluated in a 25% hold-out test set using the time-dependent area under the curve and by comparing model-predicted and observed risks for calibration. RESULTS: Predictors assessed in the never-smoker lung cancer mortality model were demographics, body mass index, lung function, history of emphysema or bronchitis, personal or family history of cancer, passive smoking, and indoor air pollution. The ever-smoker model additionally assessed smoking history. The 5-year areas under the curve in the test set were 0.77 (95% confidence interval = 0.73 to 0.80) and 0.81 (95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 0.84) for ALARM-never-smokers and ALARM-ever smokers, respectively. The maximum 5-year risk for never and ever-smokers was 2.6% and 12.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study is among the first to develop risk models specifically for Asian populations separately for never and ever-smokers. Our models accurately identify Asians at high risk of lung cancer death and may identify those with risks exceeding common eligibility thresholds who may benefit from screening.
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Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Adulto , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Fumar/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Pulmão , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: It has been suggested that soy food and isoflavone intake may be protective against the risk of colorectal cancer. However, epidemiologic evidence remains sparse and inconsistent. We addressed this issue in the Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study subjects were the 816 incident cases of histologically confirmed colorectal cancer and 815 community controls. Intakes of soy foods and isoflavones were assessed by in-person interview using a computer-assisted dietary method. Logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of colorectal cancer with adjustment for dietary intakes of calcium and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids as well as for body mass index, physical activity, alcohol use, and other lifestyle factors. RESULTS: Energy-adjusted intakes of soy foods (dry weight) and isoflavones were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in men and postmenopausal women, but not in premenopausal women. The multivariate-adjusted OR for the highest versus lowest quintile was 0.65 (95% CI 0.41-1.03, p for trend = 0.03) for soy foods and 0.68 (95% CI 0.42-1.10, p for trend = 0.051) for isoflavones in men. The corresponding values for postmenopausal women were 0.60 (95% CI 0.29-1.25, p for trend = 0.053) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.33-1.40, p for trend = 0.049). The site-specific analysis showed inverse associations of soy foods (p for trend = 0.007) and isoflavones (p for trend = 0.02) with rectal cancer in men. CONCLUSION: The findings add to epidemiologic evidence for protective effects of soy foods and isoflavones in colorectal carcinogenesis.
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Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Dieta , Isoflavonas/administração & dosagem , Alimentos de Soja , Idoso , Ingestão de Alimentos , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Entrevistas como Assunto , Japão/epidemiologia , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pós-Menopausa , RiscoRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Tumor protein p53 gene and its negative regulator, murine double minute 2 homolog are important components for cell-cycle arrest and apoptosis. An arginine-to-proline substitution at codon 72 in the p53 gene is reported to decrease apoptotic potential, while a thymine-to-guanine polymorphism at nucleotide 309, named SNP309, of murine double minute 2 gene increases transcription of the gene. These two polymorphisms therefore may be of importance in colorectal carcinogenesis. The relation of these polymorphisms to colorectal cancer risk was addressed in the Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study. METHODS: We genotyped the two polymorphisms in 685 incident cases of colorectal cancer and 778 community controls by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. Statistical adjustment was made for sex and age. RESULTS: The proline allele of p53 gene and the guanine allele of SNP309 were each associated with a small, statistically non-significant increase in the odds ratio of colorectal cancer; the adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for arginine/proline and proline/proline genotypes combined versus arginine/arginine genotype of p53 gene was 1.23 (0.99-1.52) and that for thymine/guanine and guanine/guanine genotypes combined versus thymine/thymine genotype of SNP309 was 1.27 (0.98-1.63). Individuals harboring the proline allele of p53 gene and the guanine allele of SNP309 showed an odds ratio of 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.51). CONCLUSIONS: Codon 72 polymorphism of p53 and SNP309 in combination may confer an increased risk of colorectal cancer.
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Povo Asiático/genética , Neoplasias Colorretais/etnologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/genética , Genes p53/genética , Polimorfismo de Fragmento de Restrição , Proteínas Proto-Oncogênicas c-mdm2/genética , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-IdadeRESUMO
Few studies have addressed the relation between dietary patterns and colorectal cancer in Japan. We investigated dietary patterns in relation to colorectal cancer risk in a community-based case-control study. The association with dietary patterns was also examined for different sites of colorectal cancer. Data were derived from the Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study, including 800 cases and 775 controls interviewed from September 2000 to December 2003. The cases were admitted to one of the participating hospitals for the first surgical treatment during this period. We identified dietary patterns using principal component analysis of intakes of twenty-nine items of food groups and specific foods. Quartile categories of each dietary pattern were used, and non-dietary lifestyle factors and total energy intake were adjusted for in the analysis. We identified three dietary patterns: prudent, high-fat and light-meal patterns. The prudent dietary pattern characterised by high intakes of vegetables, fruits, seafoods and soya foods showed a nearly significant protective association with the overall risk of colorectal cancer (trend P = 0.054), and it was statistically significantly related to a decreased risk of distal colon cancer (trend P = 0.002), but not to that of either proximal colon or rectal cancer. The high-fat and light-meal dietary patterns were not materially related to the overall or site-specific risk of colorectal cancer. In summary, a prudent dietary pattern was associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer, especially with that of distal colon cancer, in a fairly large case-control study in Japan.
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Neoplasias do Colo/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias Colorretais/prevenção & controle , Dieta , Idoso , Povo Asiático , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Neoplasias do Colo/etiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/etiologia , Dieta/normas , Feminino , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise de Componente PrincipalRESUMO
PURPOSE: Although height and body mass index (BMI) are reported to be positively associated with several common cancers, evidence regarding their association with brain tumor risk remains sparse, particularly in Asian populations. In this study, we analyzed the association between height and BMI and brain tumor risk in a Japanese population using a large population-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: A total of 102,925 participants (48,213 men and 54,712 women) enrolled in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study were followed from baseline, namely 1990 for cohort I and 1993 for cohort II, until 2012. Information on participants' dietary and lifestyle habits, including height and body weight, was collected through survey questionnaires administered at baseline. We used the Cox proportional hazards regression model to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for brain tumor incidence, with adjustment for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 18.1 years, 157 (70 men and 87 women) cases of brain tumor were newly diagnosed. BMI showed a statistically insignificant positive association with the risk of brain tumor. In addition, statistically significant positive trends were seen for men and meningioma, with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for a BMI of 27.5 to less than 40 versus 18.5 to less than 23 kg per m2 of 2.14 (95% CI = 0.99-4.59) (P = 0.03) and 1.98 (95% CI = 0.84-4.67) (P = 0.046), respectively. In contrast, height showed no clear association with brain tumor risk, overall or in subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with a BMI of 18 to less than 23.5 kg per m2, a higher BMI was associated with higher risk of brain tumor, particularly in men and with meningioma.
Assuntos
Estatura , Índice de Massa Corporal , Neoplasias Encefálicas/etnologia , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Japão/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Intake of heterocyclic amines (HCAs) and other mutagenic compounds formed during cooking has been hypothesized to be responsible for the positive association observed between red meat and colorectal cancer. We evaluated whether well-done/very well-done preferences for various meat and fish items, higher intakes of meat and fish, and meat-derived and fish-derived HCA are associated with the risk of colorectal adenoma (CRA) in a Japanese-Brazilian population. We selected 302 patients with adenoma and 403 control individuals who underwent total colonoscopy between 2007 and 2013, and collected information on aspects of meat intake using a detailed questionnaire. We also estimated HCA intake of the study participants using an HCA database that matched the cooking methods of this population. Latent class analysis on the basis of response to doneness preferences for different cooking methods of commonly consumed meat and fish items identified four distinct subgroups. Compared with the subgroup characterized by a preference for rare/medium well-done cooking for most meat and fish items, the odds ratio of CRA for the well-done/very well-done preference subgroup was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.51-2.75). High intake of mixed-meat dishes was suggestively associated inversely with CRA, whereas a high intake of poultry was associated positively with CRA. No clear association with intake of total or specific HCAs and no effect modification by N-acetyltransferase 2 acetylation genotype were observed. We found no statistically significant associations between meat and HCA intake and CRA. These findings do not support a positive association between meat and meat-derived HCA intake and the risk of CRA.