Characterizing physician directory data quality: variation by specialty, state, and insurer.

BACKGROUND: As U.S. legislators are urged to combat ghost networks in behavioral health and address the provider data quality issue, it becomes important to better characterize the variation in data quality of provider directories to understand root causes and devise solutions. Therefore, this manuscript examines consistency of address, phone number, and specialty information for physician entries from 5 national health plan provider directories by insurer, physician specialty, and state. METHODS: We included all physicians in the Medicare Provider Enrollment, Chain, and Ownership System (PECOS) found in ≥ 2 health insurer physician directories across 5 large national U.S. health insurers. We examined variation in consistency of address, phone number, and specialty information among physicians by insurer, physician specialty, and state. RESULTS: Of 634,914 unique physicians in the PECOS database, 449,282 were found in ≥ 2 directories and included in our sample. Across insurers, consistency of address information varied from 16.5 to 27.9%, consistency of phone number information varied from 16.0 to 27.4%, and consistency of specialty information varied from 64.2 to 68.0%. General practice, family medicine, plastic surgery, and dermatology physicians had the highest consistency of addresses (37-42%) and phone numbers (37-43%), whereas anesthesiology, nuclear medicine, radiology, and emergency medicine had the lowest consistency of addresses (11-21%) and phone numbers (9-14%) across health insurer directories. There was marked variation in consistency of address, phone number, and specialty information by state. CONCLUSIONS: In evaluating a large national sample of U.S. physicians, we found minimal variation in provider directory consistency by insurer, suggesting that this is a systemic problem that insurers have not solved, and considerable variation by physician specialty with higher quality data among more patient-facing specialties, suggesting that physicians may respond to incentives to improve data quality. These data highlight the importance of novel policy solutions that leverage technology targeting data quality to centralize provider directories so as not to not reinforce existing data quality issues or policy solutions to create national and state-level standards that target both insurers and physician groups to maximize quality of provider information.

Estimation of DAPT Study Treatment Effects in Contemporary Clinical Practice: Findings From the EXTEND-DAPT Study.

BACKGROUND: Differences in patient characteristics, changes in treatment algorithms, and advances in medical technology could each influence the applicability of older randomized trial results to contemporary clinical practice. The DAPT Study (Dual Antiplatelet Therapy) found that longer-duration DAPT decreased ischemic events at the expense of greater bleeding, but subsequent evolution in stent technology and clinical practice may attenuate the benefit of prolonged DAPT in a contemporary population. We evaluated whether the DAPT Study population is different from a contemporary population of US patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention and estimated the treatment effect of extended-duration antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention in this more contemporary cohort. METHODS: We compared the characteristics of drug-eluting stent-treated patients randomly assigned in the DAPT Study to a sample of more contemporary drug-eluting stent-treated patients in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry from July 2016 to June 2017. After linking trial and registry data, we used inverse-odds of trial participation weighting to account for patient and procedural characteristics and estimated a contemporary real-world treatment effect of 30 versus 12 months of DAPT after coronary stent procedures. RESULTS: The US drug-eluting stent-treated trial cohort included 8864 DAPT Study patients, and the registry cohort included 568 540 patients. Compared with the trial population, registry patients had more comorbidities and were more likely to present with myocardial infarction and receive 2nd-generation drug-eluting stents. After reweighting trial results to represent the registry population, there was no longer a significant effect of prolonged DAPT on reducing stent thrombosis (reweighted treatment effect: -0.40 [95% CI, -0.99% to 0.15%]), major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (reweighted treatment effect, -0.52 [95% CI, -2.62% to 1.03%]), or myocardial infarction (reweighted treatment effect, -0.97% [95% CI, -2.75% to 0.18%]), but the increase in bleeding with prolonged DAPT persisted (reweighted treatment effect, 2.42% [95% CI, 0.79% to 3.91%]). CONCLUSIONS: The differences between the patients and devices used in contemporary clinical practice compared with the DAPT Study were associated with the attenuation of benefits and greater harms attributable to prolonged DAPT duration. These findings limit the applicability of the average treatment effects from the DAPT Study in modern clinical practice.

Days at home after transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement in high-risk patients.

BACKGROUND: Days at home (DAH) quantifies time spent at home after a medical event but has not been fully evaluated for TAVR. We sought to compare 1- and 5-year DAH (DAH365, DAH1825) among high-risk patients participating in a randomized trial of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) with a self-expanding bioprosthesis versus surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). METHODS: We linked data from the U.S. CoreValve High Risk Trial to Medicare Fee-for-Service claims in 456 patients with 450 (234 TAVR/216 SAVR) and 427 (222 TAVR/205 SAVR) analyzed at 1 and 5 years. DAH was calculated as the number of days alive and spent outside of a hospital, skilled nursing facility, rehabilitation, long-term acute care hospital, emergency department, or observation stay. RESULTS: Mean DAH365 was higher in patients who underwent TAVR compared with SAVR (295.1 ± 106.9 vs 267.8 ± 122.3, difference in days 27.2 [95% CI 6.0, 48.5], P = .01). Compared with SAVR, TAVR patients had a shorter index length of stay (LOS) (7.4 ± 4.5 vs 12.5 ± 9.0, difference in days -5.1 [-6.5, -3.8], P < .001). The largest contributions to decreased DAH365 were mortality days and total facility days after discharge from the index hospitalization (mortality days-TAVR: 34.7 ± 93.1 vs SAVR: 48.0 ± 108.8, difference in days -13.3 [95% CI -32.1, 5.5], P = .17; total facility days-TAVR: 27.9 ± 47.4 vs SAVR: 36.7 ± 48.9, difference in days -8.8 [95% CI -17.8, 0.1], P = .05). Mean DAH1825 was numerically but not statistically significantly higher in TAVR (TAVR: 1154.2 ± 659.0 vs SAVR: 1067.6 ± 697.3, difference in days 86.6 [95% CI -42.3, 215.6], P = .19). Landmark analysis showed no difference in DAH from years 1 to 5 (TAVR: 1040.4 ± 477.5 vs SAVR: 1022.9 ± 489.3, P = .74). CONCLUSIONS: In the U.S. CoreValve High Risk Trial linked to Medicare, high-risk patients undergoing TAVR spend an average of 27 additional DAH compared with SAVR in the first year after the procedure due to a shorter index LOS and the additive effect of fewer but nonsignificantly different mortality and total facility days after discharge from the index hospitalization compared with SAVR. After the first year, both groups spend a similar number of DAH. These results describe the postprocedural course of high-risk patients from a patient-centered perspective, which may guide expectations regarding longitudinal health care needs and inform shared decision-making.

Cerebral Embolic Protection and Outcomes of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: Results From the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains a devastating complication of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), which has persisted despite refinements in technique and increased operator experience. While cerebral embolic protection devices (EPDs) have been developed to mitigate this risk, data regarding their impact on stroke and other outcomes after TAVR are limited. METHODS: We performed an observational study using data from the Society for Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry. Patients were included if they underwent elective or urgent transfemoral TAVR between January 2018 and December 2019. The primary outcome was in-hospital stroke. To adjust for confounding, the association between EPD use and clinical outcomes was evaluated using instrumental variable analysis, a technique designed to support causal inference from observational data, with site-level preference for EPD use within the same quarter of the procedure as the instrument. We also performed a propensity score-based secondary analysis using overlap weights. RESULTS: Our analytic sample included 123 186 patients from 599 sites. The use of EPD during TAVR increased over time, reaching 28% of sites and 13% of TAVR procedures by December 2019. There was wide variation in EPD use across hospitals, with 8% of sites performing >50% of TAVR procedures with an EPD and 72% performing no procedures with an EPD in the last quarter of 2019. In our primary analysis using the instrumental variable model, there was no association between EPD use and in-hospital stroke (adjusted relative risk, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.68-1.13]; absolute risk difference, -0.15% [95% CI, -0.49 to 0.20]). However, in our secondary analysis using the propensity score-based model, EPD use was associated with 18% lower odds of in-hospital stroke (adjusted odds ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.69-0.97]; absolute risk difference, -0.28% [95% CI, -0.52 to -0.03]). Results were generally consistent across the secondary end points, as well as subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative observational study, we did not find an association between EPD use for TAVR and in-hospital stroke in our primary instrumental variable analysis, and found only a modestly lower risk of in-hospital stroke in our secondary propensity-weighted analysis. These findings provide a strong basis for large-scale randomized, controlled trials to test whether EPDs provide meaningful clinical benefit for patients undergoing TAVR.

Effect of intensive versus limited monitoring on clinical trial conduct and outcomes: A randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory agencies have endorsed more limited approaches to clinical trial site monitoring. However, the impact of different monitoring strategies on trial conduct and outcomes is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a patient-level block-randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of intensive versus limited monitoring on cardiovascular clinical trial conduct and outcomes nested within the CoreValve Continued Access and Expanded Use Studies. Intensive monitoring included complete source data verification of all critical datapoints whereas limited monitoring included automated data checks only. This study's endpoints included clinical trial outcome ascertainment as well as monitoring action items, protocol deviations, and adverse event ascertainment. RESULTS: A total of 2,708 patients underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and were randomized to either intensive monitoring (n = 1,354) or limited monitoring (n = 1,354). Monitoring action items were more common with intensive monitoring (52% vs 15%; P < .001), but there was no difference in the percentage of patients with any protocol deviation (91.6% vs 90.4%; P = .314). The reported incidence of trial outcomes between intensive and limited monitoring was similar for mortality (30 days: 4.8% vs 5.5%, P = .442; 1 year: 20.3% vs 21.3%, P = .473) and stroke (30 days: 2.8% vs 2.4%, P = .458), as well as most secondary trial outcomes with the exception of bleeding (intensive: 36.3% vs limited: 32.0% at 30 days, P = .019). There was a higher reported incidence of cardiac adverse events reported in the intensive monitoring group at 1 year (76.7% vs 72.4%; P = .019). CONCLUSIONS: Tailored limited monitoring strategies can be implemented without influencing the integrity of TAVR trial outcomes.

Use of Administrative Claims to Assess Outcomes and Treatment Effect in Randomized Clinical Trials for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: Findings From the EXTEND Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether passively collected data can substitute for adjudicated outcomes to reproduce the magnitude and direction of treatment effect observed in cardiovascular clinical trials is not well known. METHODS: We linked adults ≥65 years of age in the HiR (US CoreValve Pivotal High Risk) and SURTAVI trials (Surgical or Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in Intermediate-Risk Patients) to 100% Medicare inpatient claims, January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2016. Primary (eg, death and stroke) and secondary trial end points were compared across treatment arms (eg, transcatheter aortic valve replacement [TAVR] versus surgical aortic valve replacement [SAVR]) using trial-adjudicated outcomes versus outcomes derived from claims at 1 year (HiR) or 2 years (SURTAVI). RESULTS: Among 600 linked HiR participants (linkage rate, 80.0%), the rate of the trial's primary end point of all-cause mortality occurred in 13.7% of patients receiving TAVR and 16.4% of patients receiving SAVR at 1 year by using both trial data (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.65-1.09]; P=0.33) and claims data (hazard ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.66-1.11]; P=0.34; interaction P value=0.80). Noninferiority of TAVR relative to SAVR was seen by using both trial- and claims-based outcomes (Pnoninferiority<0.001 for both). Among 1005 linked SURTAVI trial participants (linkage rate, 60.5%), the trial's primary end point was 12.9% for TAVR and 13.1% for SAVR using trial data (hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.79-1.48]; P=0.90), and 11.3% for TAVR and 12.5% for SAVR patients using claims data (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.73-1.41]; P=0.58; interaction P value=0.89). TAVR was noninferior to SAVR when compared using both trial and claims (Pnoninferiority<0.001 for both). Rates of procedural secondary outcomes (eg, aortic valve reintervention, pacemaker rates) were more closely concordant between trial and claims data than nonprocedural outcomes (eg, stroke, bleeding, cardiogenic shock). CONCLUSIONS: In the HiR and SURTAVI trials, ascertainment of trial primary end points using claims reproduced both the magnitude and direction of treatment effect in comparison with adjudicated event data, but nonfatal and nonprocedural secondary outcomes were not as well reproduced. Use of claims to substitute for adjudicated outcomes in traditional trial treatment comparisons may be valid and feasible for all-cause mortality and certain procedural outcomes but may be less suitable for other end points.

Life Expectancy after Myocardial Infarction, According to Hospital Performance.

BACKGROUND: Thirty-day risk-standardized mortality rates after acute myocardial infarction are commonly used to evaluate and compare hospital performance. However, it is not known whether differences among hospitals in the early survival of patients with acute myocardial infarction are associated with differences in long-term survival. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project, a study of Medicare beneficiaries who were hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction between 1994 and 1996 and who had 17 years of follow-up. We grouped hospitals into five strata that were based on case-mix severity. Within each case-mix stratum, we compared life expectancy among patients admitted to high-performing hospitals with life expectancy among patients admitted to low-performing hospitals. Hospital performance was defined by quintiles of 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to calculate life expectancy. RESULTS: The study sample included 119,735 patients with acute myocardial infarction who were admitted to 1824 hospitals. Within each case-mix stratum, survival curves of the patients admitted to hospitals in each risk-standardized mortality rate quintile separated within the first 30 days and then remained parallel over 17 years of follow-up. Estimated life expectancy declined as hospital risk-standardized mortality rate quintile increased. On average, patients treated at high-performing hospitals lived between 0.74 and 1.14 years longer, depending on hospital case mix, than patients treated at low-performing hospitals. When 30-day survivors were examined separately, there was no significant difference in unadjusted or adjusted life expectancy across hospital risk-standardized mortality rate quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, patients admitted to high-performing hospitals after acute myocardial infarction had longer life expectancies than patients treated in low-performing hospitals. This survival benefit occurred in the first 30 days and persisted over the long term. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Medical Scientist Training Program.).

Applicability of Publicly Reported Hospital Readmission Measures to Unreported Conditions and Other Patient Populations: A Cross-sectional All-Payer Study.

Background: Readmission rates after hospitalizations for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia among Medicare beneficiaries are used to assess quality and determine reimbursement. Whether these measures reflect readmission rates for other conditions or insurance groups is unknown. Objective: To investigate whether hospital-level 30-day readmission measures for publicly reported conditions (HF, AMI, and pneumonia) among Medicare patients reflect those for Medicare patients hospitalized for unreported conditions or non-Medicare patients hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: Population-based. Participants: Hospitals in the all-payer Nationwide Readmissions Database in 2013 and 2014. Measurements: Hospital-level 30-day all-cause risk-standardized excess readmission ratios (ERRs) were compared for 3 groups of patients: Medicare beneficiaries admitted for HF, AMI, or pneumonia (Medicare reported group); Medicare beneficiaries admitted for other conditions (Medicare unreported group); and non-Medicare beneficiaries admitted for HF, AMI, or pneumonia (non-Medicare group). Results: Within-hospital differences in ERRs varied widely among groups. Medicare reported ratios differed from Medicare unreported ratios by more than 0.1 for 29% of hospitals and from non-Medicare ratios by more than 0.1 for 46% of hospitals. Among hospitals with higher readmission ratios, ERRs for the Medicare reported group tended to overestimate ERRs for the non-Medicare group but underestimate those for the Medicare unreported group. Limitation: Medicare groups and risk adjustment differed slightly from those used by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Conclusion: Hospital ERRs, as estimated by Medicare to determine financial penalties, have poor agreement with corresponding measures for populations and conditions not tied to financial penalties. Current publicly reported measures may not be good surrogates for overall hospital quality related to 30-day readmissions. Primary Funding Source: Richard A. and Susan F. Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology.

Consistency of Physician Data Across Health Insurer Directories.

This study assesses the consistency of information across publicly available physician directories from 5 large national health insurers.

Sex differences in long-term mortality after myocardial infarction: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Studies of sex differences in long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction have reported mixed results. A systematic review is needed to characterize what is known about sex differences in long-term outcomes and to define gaps in knowledge. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched the Medline database from 1966 to December 2012 to identify all studies that provided sex-based comparisons of mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Only studies with at least 5 years of follow-up were reviewed. Of the 1877 identified abstracts, 52 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 39 were included in this review. Most studies included fewer than one-third women. There was significant heterogeneity across studies in patient populations, methodology, and risk adjustment, which produced substantial variability in risk estimates. In general, most studies reported higher unadjusted mortality for women compared with men at both 5 and 10 years after acute myocardial infarction; however, many of the differences in mortality became attenuated after adjustment for age. Multivariable models varied between studies; however, most reported a further reduction in sex differences after adjustment for covariates other than age. Few studies examined sex-by-age interactions; however, several studies reported interactions between sex and treatment whereby women have similar mortality risk as men after revascularization. CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences in long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction are largely explained by differences in age, comorbidities, and treatment use between women and men. Future research should aim to clarify how these differences in risk factors and presentation contribute to the sex gap in mortality.

Impact of Cerebral Embolic Protection Devices on Disabling Stroke After TAVR: Updated Results From the STS/ACC TVT Registry.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral embolic protection devices (EPDs) were developed to mitigate the risk of stroke during transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), but their benefit remains unproven. In the PROTECTED-TAVR trial (Stroke Protection With Sentinel During Transcatheter), EPD use did not reduce periprocedural stroke (primary study outcome) but led to a 62% reduction in the secondary end point of disabling stroke. Given these results, the impact of EPDs during TAVR remains unclear. METHODS: We used STS/ACC TVT registry data to examine the association between EPD use and a proxy for disabling stroke among transfemoral TAVR patients between January 2018 and June 2023. The primary outcome was in-hospital disabling stroke-defined as stroke associated with either in-hospital death or discharge to a nonhome location. We evaluated the association between EPD use and disabling stroke using instrumental variable analysis with a site-level preference for EPD use as the instrument-a quasi-experimental approach that can support causal inference. In addition, we performed a propensity score-based comparison using overlap weighting as a secondary analysis. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 414 649 patients of whom 53 389 (12.9%) received an EPD. The unadjusted rate of in-hospital disabling stroke was 0.7% among the EPD group and 0.9% in the no-EPD group. EPD use was associated with a reduction in disabling stroke in both instrumental variable analysis (relative risk, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.73-1.00]) and propensity-weighted analysis (odds ratio, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.70-0.90]) but was not associated with a reduction in nondisabling stroke. In subgroup analyses, the benefit of EPD was greater among those with versus without prior stroke (Pinteraction<0.05 for both instrumental variable and propensity-weighted analyses). CONCLUSIONS: In the largest study to date, among patients undergoing TAVR, EPD use was associated with a small, borderline significant reduction in stroke associated with death or discharge to a nonhome location (a proxy for disabling stroke) that is likely to be causal in nature. Taken together with previous mechanistic and clinical studies, these findings provide credible evidence that EPDs benefit patients undergoing TAVR.

Use of Calcium Modification During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention After Introduction of Coronary Intravascular Lithotripsy.

Background: Calcified coronary lesions are a challenge for percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). Coronary intravascular lithotripsy (IVL) is a novel calcium modification technology approved for commercial use in February 2021, but little is known about its uptake in US clinical practice. Methods: We described trends in use of calcium modification strategies, variation in use across hospitals, and predictors of calcium modification and IVL use in PCI. We included National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry patients who underwent PCI between April 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. We examined trends and hospital variation in calcium modification and IVL use. We used multivariate hierarchical logistic regression to identify predictors of calcium modification and IVL use at hospitals in 2022. Results: Of 2,733,494 PCIs across 1676 hospitals over 4.75 years, 11.4% were performed with calcium modification. Coronary IVL use increased rapidly from 0% of PCIs in Q4 2020 to 7.8% of PCIs in Q4 2022, which was accompanied by an overall increase in use of all calcium modification strategies (11.1%-16.0%) during this period with a slight corresponding decrease in coronary atherectomy use (5.4%-4.4%). In 2022, there was wide variation in IVL use across hospitals (median, 3.86%; IQR, 0%-8.19%), with IVL being the most common calcium modification strategy in 48% of hospitals. The treating hospital was the strongest predictor of calcium modification (median odds ratio [OR], 2.49; 95% CI, 2.40-2.57) and IVL use (median OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.74-3.04). Conclusions: IVL has rapidly changed the landscape of calcium modification use for PCI, although there remains wide variation across hospitals.

Contextualizing the BEST-CLI Trial Results in Clinical Practice.

Background: Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) is associated with poor long-term outcomes. Although prompt revascularization is recommended, the optimal revascularization strategy remains uncertain. The BEST-CLI trial compared endovascular and open surgical revascularization for CLTI, but the generalizability of this study to the clinical population with CLTI has not been evaluated. Methods: We included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65-85 years with CLTI who underwent revascularization and would be eligible for enrollment in BEST-CLI between 2016 and 2019. The primary exposure was type of revascularization (endovascular vs autologous graft [cohort 1] vs nonautologous graft [cohort 2]), and the primary outcome was a composite of major adverse limb events (MALE) and death. MALE included above-ankle amputation and major intervention, which was defined as new bypass of index limb, thrombectomy, or thrombolysis. Results: A total of 66,153 patients were included in this study (10,125 autologous grafts; 7867 nonautologous grafts; 48,161 endovascular). Compared with those enrolled in BEST-CLI cohort 1, patients in this study were older (mean age, 73.5 ± 5.7 vs 69.9 ± 9.9 years), more likely to be female (38.3% [22,340/58,286] vs 28.5% [408/1434]), and presented with more comorbidities. Endovascular operators for the study population vs BEST-CLI cohort 1 were less likely to be surgeons (55.9% [26,924/48,148] vs 73.0% [520/708]) and more likely to be cardiologists (25.5% [5900/48,148] vs 14.5% [103/78]). When assessing long-term outcomes, the crude risk of death or MALE in this cohort was higher with surgery (56.6% autologous grafts vs 42.6% BEST-CLI cohort 1 at a median of follow-up 2.7 years; 51.6% nonautologous grafts vs 42.8% BEST-CLI cohort 2 at a median follow-up of 1.6 years) but similar with the endovascular cohort (58.7% Medicare vs 57.4% cohort 1 at 2.7 years; 47.0% Medicare vs 47.7% cohort 2 at 1.6 years). Of those who received endovascular treatment, the risk of incident major intervention was less than half in this cohort compared with the trial cohort (10.0% Medicare vs 23.5% cohort 1 at 2.7 years; 8.6% Medicare vs 25.6% cohort 2 at 1.6 years), although technical endovascular failures were not captured. Conclusions: These results suggest that the findings of the BEST-CLI trial may not be applicable to the entirety of the Medicare population of patients with CLTI undergoing revascularization.

Optimized Risk Score to Predict Mortality in Patients With Cardiogenic Shock in the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit.

Background Mortality prediction in critically ill patients with cardiogenic shock can guide triage and selection of potentially high-risk treatment options. Methods and Results We developed and externally validated a checklist risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among adults admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit with Society for Cardiovascular Angiography & Interventions Shock Stage C or greater cardiogenic shock using 2 real-world data sets and Risk-Calibrated Super-sparse Linear Integer Modeling (RiskSLIM). We compared this model to those developed using conventional penalized logistic regression and published cardiogenic shock and intensive care unit mortality prediction models. There were 8815 patients in our training cohort (in-hospital mortality 13.4%) and 2237 patients in our validation cohort (in-hospital mortality 22.8%), and there were 39 candidate predictor variables. The final risk score (termed BOS,MA2) included maximum blood urea nitrogen ≥25 mg/dL, minimum oxygen saturation <88%, minimum systolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, use of mechanical ventilation, age ≥60 years, and maximum anion gap ≥14 mmol/L, based on values recorded during the first 24 hours of intensive care unit stay. Predicted in-hospital mortality ranged from 0.5% for a score of 0 to 70.2% for a score of 6. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.83 (0.82-0.84) in training and 0.76 (0.73-0.78) in validation, and the expected calibration error was 0.9% in training and 2.6% in validation. Conclusions Developed using a novel machine learning method and the largest cardiogenic shock cohorts among published models, BOS,MA2 is a simple, clinically interpretable risk score that has improved performance compared with existing cardiogenic-shock risk scores and better calibration than general intensive care unit risk scores.

Association Between Claims-Defined Frailty and Outcomes Following 30 Versus 12 Months of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Findings From the EXTEND-DAPT Study.

Background Frailty is rarely assessed in clinical trials of patients who receive dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after percutaneous coronary intervention. This study investigated whether frailty defined using claims data is associated with outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention, and if there is a differential association in patients receiving standard versus extended duration DAPT. Methods and Results Patients ≥65 years of age in the DAPT (Dual Antiplatelet Therapy) Study, a randomized trial comparing 30 versus 12 months of DAPT following percutaneous coronary intervention, had data linked to Medicare claims (n=1326), and a previously validated claims-based index was used to define frailty. Net adverse clinical events, a composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and major bleeding, were compared between frail and nonfrail patients. Patients defined as frail using claims data (12.0% of the cohort) had higher incidence of net adverse clinical events (23.1%) compared with nonfrail patients (10.7%; P<0.001) at 18-month follow-up and increased risk after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.24 [95% CI, 1.38-3.63]). There were no differences in effects of extended duration DAPT on net adverse clinical events for frail (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 0.73-2.75]) and nonfrail patients (HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 0.83-1.68]; interaction P=0.61), although analyses were underpowered. Bleeding was highest among frail patients who received extended duration DAPT. Conclusions Among older patients in the DAPT Study, claims-defined frailty was associated with higher net adverse clinical events. Effects of extended duration DAPT were not different for frail patients, although comparisons were underpowered. Further investigation of how frailty influences ischemic and bleeding risks with DAPT are warranted. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00977938.

Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Income Patterns in Ideal Cardiovascular Health Among Adolescents and Adults in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Ideal cardiovascular health is present in <50% of children and <1% of adults, yet its prevalence from adolescence through adulthood has not been fully evaluated. This study characterizes the association of age with ideal cardiovascular health and compares these associations across sex, race/ethnicity, and SES subgroups. METHODS: This study, conducted in 2020, analyzed adolescents and adults aged 12-79 years from the cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2016 (N=38,706). Polynomial models were used to model the association of age with ideal cardiovascular health, defined using the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 criteria (scales 0-14, with higher values indicating better cardiovascular health). RESULTS: Mean cardiovascular health was lower with increasing age, starting in early adolescence and dropping to a nadir by age 60 years before stabilizing. At age 20 years, only 45% of adults had ideal cardiovascular health (≥5 ideal cardiovascular health metrics), and >50% of adults had poor cardiovascular health (≤2 ideal cardiovascular health metrics) at age 53 years. Women had higher mean cardiovascular health than men in early life but lower mean cardiovascular health from age 60 years onward. Mean cardiovascular health scores were highest for non-Hispanic White and higher-income adults and lowest for non-Hispanic Black and low-income adults across all ages. Mean cardiovascular health scores fell from intermediate to poor levels approximately 30 years earlier for non-Hispanic Black than for non-Hispanic White adults and approximately 35 years earlier for low-income adults than in higher-income adults. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular health scores are lower with increasing age from early adolescence through adulthood. Race/ethnicity and income disparities in cardiovascular health are observed at young ages and are more profound at older ages.

Association Between Hospital Cardiovascular Procedural Volumes and Transcatheter Mitral Valve Repair Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular procedural volumes can serve as metrics of hospital infrastructure and quality, and are the basis for thresholds for initiating transcatheter mitral valve repair (TMVr) programs. Whether hospital volumes of TMVr, surgical mitral valve replacement or repair (SMVRr), and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are indicators of TMVr quality of care is not known. METHODS: We used the 2017 Nationwide Readmissions Database to identify hospitals that performed at least 5 TMVr procedures. Hospitals were divided into quartiles of TMVr volume. Associations of hospital TMVr, SMVRr, and PCI volumes, as well as SMVRr and PCI outcomes with TMVr outcomes were examined. Outcomes studied were risk-standardized in-hospital mortality rate (RSMR) and 30-day readmission rate (RSRR). RESULTS: The study included 3404 TMVr procedures performed across 150 hospitals in the US. The median hospital TMVr volume was 17 (IQR 10, 28). The mean hospital-level RSMR and RSRR for TMVr were 3.0% (95% CI 2.5%, 3.4%) and 14.8% (95% CI 14.5%, 15.0%), respectively. There was no significant association between hospital TMVr volume (as quartiles or as a continuous variable) and TMVr RSMR or RSRR (P > 0.05). Similarly, there was weak or no correlation between hospital SMVRr and PCI volumes and outcomes with TMVr RSMR or RSRR (Pearson correlation coefficients, r = -0.199 to 0.269). CONCLUSION: In this study, we found no relationship between hospital TMVr, SMVRr, and PCI volume and TMVr outcomes. Further studies are needed to determine more appropriate structure and process measures to assess the performance of established and new TMVr centers.