Translational Modeling Identifies Synergy between Nanoparticle-Delivered miRNA-22 and Standard-of-Care Drugs in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Downregulation of miRNA-22 in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is associated with upregulation of eukaryotic elongation 2 factor kinase (eEF2K) protein, which regulates tumor growth, chemoresistance, and tumor immunosurveillance. Moreover, exogenous administration of miRNA-22, loaded in nanoparticles to prevent degradation and improve tumor delivery (termed miRNA-22 nanotherapy), to suppress eEF2K production has shown potential as an investigational therapeutic agent in vivo. METHODS: To evaluate the translational potential of miRNA-22 nanotherapy, we developed a multiscale mechanistic model, calibrated to published in vivo data and extrapolated to the human scale, to describe and quantify the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of miRNA-22 in virtual patient populations. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed the dose-response relationship, suggested optimal treatment frequency for miRNA-22 nanotherapy, and highlighted key determinants of therapy response, from which combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors was identified as a candidate strategy for improving treatment outcomes. More importantly, drug synergy was identified between miRNA-22 and standard-of-care drugs against TNBC, providing a basis for rational therapeutic combinations for improved response CONCLUSIONS: The present study highlights the translational potential of miRNA-22 nanotherapy for TNBC in combination with standard-of-care drugs.

Mathematical modeling in cancer nanomedicine: a review.

Cancer continues to be among the leading healthcare problems worldwide, and efforts continue not just to find better drugs, but also better drug delivery methods. The need for delivering cytotoxic agents selectively to cancerous cells, for improved safety and efficacy, has triggered the application of nanotechnology in medicine. This effort has provided drug delivery systems that can potentially revolutionize cancer treatment. Nanocarriers, due to their capacity for targeted drug delivery, can shift the balance of cytotoxicity from healthy to cancerous cells. The field of cancer nanomedicine has made significant progress, but challenges remain that impede its clinical translation. Several biophysical barriers to the transport of nanocarriers to the tumor exist, and a much deeper understanding of nano-bio interactions is necessary to change the status quo. Mathematical modeling has been instrumental in improving our understanding of the physicochemical and physiological underpinnings of nanomaterial behavior in biological systems. Here, we present a comprehensive review of literature on mathematical modeling works that have been and are being employed towards a better understanding of nano-bio interactions for improved tumor delivery efficacy.

Theory and Experimental Validation of a Spatio-temporal Model of Chemotherapy Transport to Enhance Tumor Cell Kill.

AUTHOR SUMMARY: Cancer treatment efficacy can be significantly enhanced through the elution of drug from nano-carriers that can temporarily stay in the tumor vasculature. Here we present a relatively simple yet powerful mathematical model that accounts for both spatial and temporal heterogeneities of drug dosing to help explain, examine, and prove this concept. We find that the delivery of systemic chemotherapy through a certain form of nano-carriers would have enhanced tumor kill by a factor of 2 to 4 over the standard therapy that the patients actually received. We also find that targeting blood volume fraction (a parameter of the model) through vascular normalization can achieve more effective drug delivery and tumor kill. More importantly, this model only requires a limited number of parameters which can all be readily assessed from standard clinical diagnostic measurements (e.g., histopathology and CT). This addresses an important challenge in current translational research and justifies further development of the model towards clinical translation.

Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling.

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models.

A hybrid agent-based model of the developing mammary terminal end bud.

Mammary gland ductal elongation is spearheaded by terminal end buds (TEBs), where populations of highly proliferative cells are maintained throughout post-pubertal organogenesis in virgin mice until the mammary fat pad is filled by a mature ductal tree. We have developed a hybrid multiscale agent-based model to study how cellular differentiation pathways, cellular proliferation capacity, and endocrine and paracrine signaling play a role during development of the mammary gland. A simplified cellular phenotypic hierarchy that includes stem, progenitor, and fully differentiated cells within the TEB was implemented. Model analysis finds that mammary gland development was highly sensitive to proliferation events within the TEB, with progenitors likely undergoing 2-3 proliferation cycles before transitioning to a non-proliferative phenotype, and this result is in agreement with our previous experimental work. Endocrine and paracrine signaling were found to provide reliable ductal elongation rate regulation, while variations in the probability a new daughter cell will be of a proliferative phenotype were seen to have minimal effects on ductal elongation rates. Moreover, the distribution of cellular phenotypes within the TEB was highly heterogeneous, demonstrating significant allowable plasticity in possible phenotypic distributions while maintaining biologically relevant growth behavior. Finally, simulation results indicate ductal elongation rates due to cellular proliferation within the TEB may have a greater sensitivity to upstream endocrine signaling than endothelial to stromal paracrine signaling within the TEB. This model provides a useful tool to gain quantitative insights into cellular population dynamics and the effects of endocrine and paracrine signaling within the pubertal terminal end bud.

Integrated PK-PD and agent-based modeling in oncology.

Mathematical modeling has become a valuable tool that strives to complement conventional biomedical research modalities in order to predict experimental outcome, generate new medical hypotheses, and optimize clinical therapies. Two specific approaches, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling, and agent-based modeling (ABM), have been widely applied in cancer research. While they have made important contributions on their own (e.g., PK-PD in examining chemotherapy drug efficacy and resistance, and ABM in describing and predicting tumor growth and metastasis), only a few groups have started to combine both approaches together in an effort to gain more insights into the details of drug dynamics and the resulting impact on tumor growth. In this review, we focus our discussion on some of the most recent modeling studies building on a combined PK-PD and ABM approach that have generated experimentally testable hypotheses. Some future directions are also discussed.

Hybridizing mechanistic mathematical modeling with deep learning methods to predict individual cancer patient survival after immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy.

We present a study where predictive mechanistic modeling is used in combination with deep learning methods to predict individual patient survival probabilities under immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy. This hybrid approach enables prediction based on both measures that are calculable from mechanistic models (but may not be directly measurable in the clinic) and easily measurable quantities or characteristics (that are not always readily incorporated into predictive mechanistic models). The mechanistic model we have applied here can predict tumor response from CT or MRI imaging based on key mechanisms underlying checkpoint inhibitor therapy, and in the present work, its parameters were combined with readily-available clinical measures from 93 patients into a hybrid training set for a deep learning time-to-event predictive model. Analysis revealed that training an artificial neural network with both mechanistic modeling-derived and clinical measures achieved higher per-patient predictive accuracy based on event-time concordance, Brier score, and negative binomial log-likelihood-based criteria than when only mechanistic model-derived values or only clinical data were used. Feature importance analysis revealed that both clinical and model-derived parameters play prominent roles in neural network decision making, and in increasing prediction accuracy, further supporting the advantage of our hybrid approach. We anticipate that many existing mechanistic models may be hybridized with deep learning methods in a similar manner to improve predictive accuracy through addition of additional data that may not be readily implemented in mechanistic descriptions.

Translational modeling-based evidence for enhanced efficacy of standard-of-care drugs in combination with anti-microRNA-155 in non-small-cell lung cancer.

Elevated microRNA-155 (miR-155) expression in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) promotes cisplatin resistance and negatively impacts treatment outcomes. However, miR-155 can also boost anti-tumor immunity by suppressing PD-L1 expression. We developed a multiscale mechanistic model, calibrated with in vivo data and then extrapolated to humans, to investigate the therapeutic effects of nanoparticle-delivered anti-miR-155 in NSCLC, alone or in combination with standard-of-care drugs. Model simulations and analyses of the clinical scenario revealed that monotherapy with anti-miR-155 at a dose of 2.5 mg/kg administered once every three weeks has substantial anti-cancer activity. It led to a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 6.7 months, which compared favorably to cisplatin and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Further, we explored the combinations of anti-miR-155 with standard-of-care drugs, and found strongly synergistic two- and three-drug combinations. A three-drug combination of anti-miR-155, cisplatin, and pembrolizumab resulted in a median PFS of 13.1 months, while a two-drug combination of anti-miR-155 and cisplatin resulted in a median PFS of 11.3 months, which emerged as a more practical option due to its simple design and cost-effectiveness. Our analyses also provided valuable insights into unfavorable dose ratios for drug combinations, highlighting the need for optimizing dose regimen to prevent antagonistic effects. Thus, this work bridges the gap between preclinical development and clinical translation of anti-miR-155 and unravels the potential of anti-miR-155 combination therapies in NSCLC.

Immune-checkpoint inhibitor therapy response evaluation using oncophysics-based mathematical models.

The field of oncology has transformed with the advent of immunotherapies. The standard of care for multiple cancers now includes novel drugs that target key checkpoints that function to modulate immune responses, enabling the patient's immune system to elicit an effective anti-tumor response. While these immune-based approaches can have dramatic effects in terms of significantly reducing tumor burden and prolonging survival for patients, the therapeutic approach remains active only in a minority of patients and is often not durable. Multiple biological investigations have identified key markers that predict response to the most common form of immunotherapy-immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). These biomarkers help enrich patients for ICI but are not 100% predictive. Understanding the complex interactions of these biomarkers with other pathways and factors that lead to ICI resistance remains a major goal. Principles of oncophysics-the idea that cancer can be described as a multiscale physical aberration-have shown promise in recent years in terms of capturing the essence of the complexities of ICI interactions. Here, we review the biological knowledge of mechanisms of ICI action and how these are incorporated into modern oncophysics-based mathematical models. Building on the success of oncophysics-based mathematical models may help to discover new, rational methods to engineer immunotherapy for patients in the future. This article is categorized under: Therapeutic Approaches and Drug Discovery > Nanomedicine for Oncologic Disease.

Mechanistic modeling of anti-microRNA-155 therapy combinations in lung cancer.

To improve treatment outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), it is crucial to identify treatment strategies with the potential to exhibit drug synergism. This can lower the required effective dose, reducing exposure to drugs and associated toxicities, while improving treatment efficacy. In previous studies, drugs targeting the microRNA-155 or PD-L1 have been promising in restraining NSCLC tumor growth. We have developed a mathematical model that simulates the in vivo pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the novel nanoparticle-delivered anti-microRNA-155 for potential use with standard-of-care drug atezolizumab for NSCLC. Through modeling and simulation, we identified possible drug synergism between the two drugs that holds promise to improve tumor response at reduced drug exposure.Clinical Relevance-Identifying the possibility of drug synergism for an anti-microRNA-155 based nanotherapeutic with standard-of-care immunotherapy to improve lung cancer treatment outcomes.

Protocol for mathematical prediction of patient response and survival to immune checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy.

This protocol describes the application of a mechanistic mathematical model of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) immunotherapy to patient tumor imaging data for predicting solid tumor response and patient survival under ICI intervention. We describe steps for data collection and processing, data pipelines, and approaches to increase precision. The protocol is highly predictive as early as the first restaging after treatment start and can be used with standard-of-care imaging measures. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Butner et al. (2020)1 and Butner et al. (2021).2.

Mathematical modeling of cancer immunotherapy for personalized clinical translation.

Encouraging advances are being made in cancer immunotherapy modeling, especially in the key areas of developing personalized treatment strategies based on individual patient parameters, predicting treatment outcomes and optimizing immunotherapy synergy when used in combination with other treatment approaches. Here we present a focused review of the most recent mathematical modeling work on cancer immunotherapy with a focus on clinical translatability. It can be seen that this field is transitioning from pure basic science to applications that can make impactful differences in patients' lives. We discuss how researchers are integrating experimental and clinical data to fully inform models so that they can be applied for clinical predictions, and present the challenges that remain to be overcome if widespread clinical adaptation is to be realized. Lastly, we discuss the most promising future applications and areas that are expected to be the focus of extensive upcoming modeling studies.

Dedifferentiation-mediated stem cell niche maintenance in early-stage ductal carcinoma in situ progression: insights from a multiscale modeling study.

We present a multiscale agent-based model of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) to study how key phenotypic and signaling pathways are involved in the early stages of disease progression. The model includes a phenotypic hierarchy, and key endocrine and paracrine signaling pathways, and simulates cancer ductal growth in a 3D lattice-free domain. In particular, by considering stochastic cell dedifferentiation plasticity, the model allows for study of how dedifferentiation to a more stem-like phenotype plays key roles in the maintenance of cancer stem cell populations and disease progression. Through extensive parameter perturbation studies, we have quantified and ranked how DCIS is sensitive to perturbations in several key mechanisms that are instrumental to early disease development. Our studies reveal that long-term maintenance of multipotent stem-like cell niches within the tumor are dependent on cell dedifferentiation plasticity, and that disease progression will become arrested due to dilution of the multipotent stem-like population in the absence of dedifferentiation. We have identified dedifferentiation rates necessary to maintain biologically relevant multipotent cell populations, and also explored quantitative relationships between dedifferentiation rates and disease progression rates, which may potentially help to optimize the efficacy of emerging anti-cancer stem cell therapeutics.

Mass Transport Model of Radiation Response: Calibration and Application to Chemoradiation for Pancreatic Cancer.

PURPOSE: The benefit of radiation therapy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains unclear. We hypothesized that a new mechanistic mathematical model of chemotherapy and radiation response could predict clinical outcomes a priori, using a previously described baseline measurement of perfusion from computed tomography scans, normalized area under the enhancement curve (nAUC). METHODS AND MATERIALS: We simplified an existing mass transport model that predicted cancer cell death by replacing previously unknown variables with averaged direct measurements from randomly selected pathologic sections of untreated PDAC. This allowed using nAUC as the sole model input to approximate tumor perfusion. We then compared the predicted cancer cell death to the actual cell death measured from corresponding resected tumors treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation in a calibration cohort (n = 80) and prospective cohort (n = 25). After calibration, we applied the model to 2 separate cohorts for pathologic and clinical associations: targeted therapy cohort (n = 101), cetuximab/bevacizumab + radiosensitizing chemotherapy, and standard chemoradiation cohort (n = 81), radiosensitizing chemotherapy to 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions. RESULTS: We established the relationship between pretreatment computed v nAUC to pathologically verified blood volume fraction of the tumor (r = 0.65; P = .009) and fractional tumor cell death (r = 0.97-0.99; P < .0001) in the calibration and prospective cohorts. On multivariate analyses, accounting for traditional covariates, nAUC independently associated with overall survival in all cohorts (mean hazard ratios, 0.14-0.31). Receiver operator characteristic analyses revealed discrimination of good and bad prognostic groups in the cohorts with area under the curve values of 0.64 to 0.71. CONCLUSIONS: This work presents a new mathematical modeling approach to predict clinical response from chemotherapy and radiation for PDAC. Our findings indicate that oxygen/drug diffusion strongly influences clinical responses and that nAUC is a potential tool to select patients with PDAC for radiation therapy.

A Phase 2 Trial of Enhancing Immune Checkpoint Blockade by Stereotactic Radiation and In Situ Virus Gene Therapy in Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: A Phase 2 trial of stereotactic radiotherapy and in situ cytotoxic virus therapy in patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC) followed by pembrolizumab (STOMP) was designed to evaluate dual approach of enhancing single-agent immune checkpoint blockade with adenovirus-mediated expression of herpes-simplex-virus thymidine-kinase (ADV/HSV-tk) plus valacyclovir gene therapy and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with mTNBC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this single-arm, open-label Phase 2 trial, patients with mTNBC were treated with ADV/HSV-tk [5 × 1011 virus particles (vp)] intratumoral injection, followed by SBRT to the injected tumor site, then pembrolizumab (200 mg, every 3 weeks). The primary endpoint was clinical benefit rate [CBR; complete response (CR), partial response (PR), or stable disease (SD) ≥ 24 weeks per RECIST version1.1 at non-irradiated site]. Secondary endpoints included duration on treatment (DoT), overall survival (OS), and safety. Exploratory endpoints included immune response to treatment assessed by correlative tissue and blood-based biomarkers. RESULTS: Twenty-eight patients were enrolled and treated. CBR was seen in 6 patients (21.4%), including 2 CR (7.1%), 1 PR (3.6%), and 3 SD (10.7%). Patients with clinical benefit had durable responses, with median DoT of 9.6 months and OS of 14.7 months. The median OS was 6.6 months in the total population. The combination was well tolerated. Correlative studies with Cytometry by Time of Flight (CyTOF) and imaging mass cytometry (IMC) revealed a significant increase of CD8 T cells in responders and of myeloid cells in non-responders. CONCLUSIONS: The median OS increased by more than 2-fold in patients with clinical benefit. The therapy is a well-tolerated treatment in heavily pretreated patients with mTNBC. Early detection of increased effector and effector memory CD8 T cells and myeloids correlate with response and non-response, respectively.

A Multiscale Model to Identify Limiting Factors in Nanoparticle-Based miRNA Delivery for Tumor Inhibition.

MicroRNA-based gene therapy for cancer treatment via nanoparticles (NPs) requires navigation of multiple physical and physiological barriers in order to efficiently deliver the miRNAs to the cancer cell cytoplasm. We here present a mathematical model to investigate the variability associated with tumor, NP, and miRNA characteristics, and identify the limiting factors in miRNA delivery to tumors. Through global parameter analysis, the miRNA release rate from NPs and NP degradability were found to have the most significant impact on cytosolic accumulation of miRNAs. These NP properties can be fine-tuned in order to optimize the delivery system for enhancing the efficacy of miRNA-based therapy.Clinical Relevance-Understanding the effect of nanoparticle, tumor, and miRNA characteristics in governing the efficacy of miRNA-based cancer therapy will support its clinical translation.

Innate Immunity Plays a Key Role in Controlling Viral Load in COVID-19: Mechanistic Insights from a Whole-Body Infection Dynamics Model.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a pathogen of immense public health concern. Efforts to control the disease have only proven mildly successful, and the disease will likely continue to cause excessive fatalities until effective preventative measures (such as a vaccine) are developed. To develop disease management strategies, a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and population susceptibility to infection are needed. To this end, mathematical modeling can provide a robust in silico tool to understand COVID-19 pathophysiology and the in vivo dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Guided by ACE2-tropism (ACE2 receptor dependency for infection) of the virus and by incorporating cellular-scale viral dynamics and innate and adaptive immune responses, we have developed a multiscale mechanistic model for simulating the time-dependent evolution of viral load distribution in susceptible organs of the body (respiratory tract, gut, liver, spleen, heart, kidneys, and brain). Following parameter quantification with in vivo and clinical data, we used the model to simulate viral load progression in a virtual patient with varying degrees of compromised immune status. Further, we ranked model parameters through sensitivity analysis for their significance in governing clearance of viral load to understand the effects of physiological factors and underlying conditions on viral load dynamics. Antiviral drug therapy, interferon therapy, and their combination were simulated to study the effects on viral load kinetics of SARS-CoV-2. The model revealed the dominant role of innate immunity (specifically interferons and resident macrophages) in controlling viral load, and the importance of timing when initiating therapy after infection.

A mathematical model for the quantification of a patient's sensitivity to checkpoint inhibitors and long-term tumour burden.

A large proportion of patients with cancer are unresponsive to treatment with immune checkpoint blockade and other immunotherapies. Here, we report a mathematical model of the time course of tumour responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors. The model takes into account intrinsic tumour growth rates, the rates of immune activation and of tumour-immune cell interactions, and the efficacy of immune-mediated tumour killing. For 124 patients, four cancer types and two immunotherapy agents, the model reliably described the immune responses and final tumour burden across all different cancers and drug combinations examined. In validation cohorts from four clinical trials of checkpoint inhibitors (with a total of 177 patients), the model accurately stratified the patients according to reduced or increased long-term tumour burden. We also provide model-derived quantitative measures of treatment sensitivity for specific drug-cancer combinations. The model can be used to predict responses to therapy and to quantify specific drug-cancer sensitivities in individual patients.

Early prediction of clinical response to checkpoint inhibitor therapy in human solid tumors through mathematical modeling.

Background: Checkpoint inhibitor therapy of cancer has led to markedly improved survival of a subset of patients in multiple solid malignant tumor types, yet the factors driving these clinical responses or lack thereof are not known. We have developed a mechanistic mathematical model for better understanding these factors and their relations in order to predict treatment outcome and optimize personal treatment strategies. Methods: Here, we present a translational mathematical model dependent on three key parameters for describing efficacy of checkpoint inhibitors in human cancer: tumor growth rate (α), tumor-immune infiltration (Λ), and immunotherapy-mediated amplification of anti-tumor response (µ). The model was calibrated by fitting it to a compiled clinical tumor response dataset (n = 189 patients) obtained from published anti-PD-1 and anti-PD-L1 clinical trials, and then validated on an additional validation cohort (n = 64 patients) obtained from our in-house clinical trials. Results: The derived parameters Λ and µ were both significantly different between responding versus nonresponding patients. Of note, our model appropriately classified response in 81.4% of patients by using only tumor volume measurements and within 2 months of treatment initiation in a retrospective analysis. The model reliably predicted clinical response to the PD-1/PD-L1 class of checkpoint inhibitors across multiple solid malignant tumor types. Comparison of model parameters to immunohistochemical measurement of PD-L1 and CD8+ T cells confirmed robust relationships between model parameters and their underlying biology. Conclusions: These results have demonstrated reliable methods to inform model parameters directly from biopsy samples, which are conveniently obtainable as early as the start of treatment. Together, these suggest that the model parameters may serve as early and robust biomarkers of the efficacy of checkpoint inhibitor therapy on an individualized per-patient basis. Funding: We gratefully acknowledge support from the Andrew Sabin Family Fellowship, Center for Radiation Oncology Research, Sheikh Ahmed Center for Pancreatic Cancer Research, GE Healthcare, Philips Healthcare, and institutional funds from the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. We have also received Cancer Center Support Grants from the National Cancer Institute (P30CA016672 to the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center and P30CA072720 the Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey). This research has also been supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation Grant DMS-1930583 (ZW, VC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) 1R01CA253865 (ZW, VC), 1U01CA196403 (ZW, VC), 1U01CA213759 (ZW, VC), 1R01CA226537 (ZW, RP, WA, VC), 1R01CA222007 (ZW, VC), U54CA210181 (ZW, VC), and the University of Texas System STARS Award (VC). BC acknowledges support through the SER Cymru II Programme, funded by the European Commission through the Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) COFUND scheme and the Welsh European Funding Office (WEFO) under the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). EK has also received support from the Project Purple, NIH (U54CA210181, U01CA200468, and U01CA196403), and the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (16-65-SING). MF was supported through NIH/NCI center grant U54CA210181, R01CA222959, DoD Breast Cancer Research Breakthrough Level IV Award W81XWH-17-1-0389, and the Ernest Cockrell Jr. Presidential Distinguished Chair at Houston Methodist Research Institute. RP and WA received serial research awards from AngelWorks, the Gillson-Longenbaugh Foundation, and the Marcus Foundation. This work was also supported in part by grants from the National Cancer Institute to SHC (R01CA109322, R01CA127483, R01CA208703, and U54CA210181 CITO pilot grant) and to PYP (R01CA140243, R01CA188610, and U54CA210181 CITO pilot grant). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

A Mathematical Model to Estimate Chemotherapy Concentration at the Tumor-Site and Predict Therapy Response in Colorectal Cancer Patients with Liver Metastases.

Chemotherapy remains a primary treatment for metastatic cancer, with tumor response being the benchmark outcome marker. However, therapeutic response in cancer is unpredictable due to heterogeneity in drug delivery from systemic circulation to solid tumors. In this proof-of-concept study, we evaluated chemotherapy concentration at the tumor-site and its association with therapy response by applying a mathematical model. By using pre-treatment imaging, clinical and biologic variables, and chemotherapy regimen to inform the model, we estimated tumor-site chemotherapy concentration in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases, who received treatment prior to surgical hepatic resection with curative-intent. The differential response to therapy in resected specimens, measured with the gold-standard Tumor Regression Grade (TRG; from 1, complete response to 5, no response) was examined, relative to the model predicted systemic and tumor-site chemotherapy concentrations. We found that the average calculated plasma concentration of the cytotoxic drug was essentially equivalent across patients exhibiting different TRGs, while the estimated tumor-site chemotherapeutic concentration (eTSCC) showed a quadratic decline from TRG = 1 to TRG = 5 (p < 0.001). The eTSCC was significantly lower than the observed plasma concentration and dropped by a factor of ~5 between patients with complete response (TRG = 1) and those with no response (TRG = 5), while the plasma concentration remained stable across TRG groups. TRG variations were driven and predicted by differences in tumor perfusion and eTSCC. If confirmed in carefully planned prospective studies, these findings will form the basis of a paradigm shift in the care of patients with potentially curable colorectal cancer and liver metastases.