A new cure model that corrects for increased risk of non-cancer death: analysis of reliability and robustness, and application to real-life data.

BACKGROUND: Non-cancer mortality in cancer patients may be higher than overall mortality in the general population due to a combination of factors, such as long-term adverse effects of treatments, and genetic, environmental or lifestyle-related factors. If so, conventional indicators may underestimate net survival and cure fraction. Our aim was to propose and evaluate a mixture cure survival model that takes into account the increased risk of non-cancer death for cancer patients. METHODS: We assessed the performance of a corrected mixture cure survival model derived from a conventional mixture cure model to estimate the cure fraction, the survival of uncured patients, and the increased risk of non-cancer death in two settings of net survival estimation, grouped life-table data and individual patients' data. We measured the model's performance in terms of bias, standard deviation of the estimates and coverage rate, using an extensive simulation study. This study included reliability assessments through violation of some of the model's assumptions. We also applied the models to colon cancer data from the FRANCIM network. RESULTS: When the assumptions were satisfied, the corrected cure model provided unbiased estimates of parameters expressing the increased risk of non-cancer death, the cure fraction, and net survival in uncured patients. No major difference was found when the model was applied to individual or grouped data. The absolute bias was < 1% for all parameters, while coverage ranged from 89 to 97%. When some of the assumptions were violated, parameter estimates appeared more robust when obtained from grouped than from individual data. As expected, the uncorrected cure model performed poorly and underestimated net survival and cure fractions in the simulation study. When applied to colon cancer real-life data, cure fractions estimated using the proposed model were higher than those in the conventional model, e.g. 5% higher in males at age 60 (57% vs. 52%). CONCLUSIONS: The present analysis supports the use of the corrected mixture cure model, with the inclusion of increased risk of non-cancer death for cancer patients to provide better estimates of indicators based on cancer survival. These are important to public health decision-making; they improve patients' awareness and facilitate their return to normal life.

Long-term survival and cure fraction estimates for childhood cancer in Europe (EUROCARE-6): results from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The EUROCARE-5 study revealed disparities in childhood cancer survival among European countries, giving rise to important initiatives across Europe to reduce the gap. Extending its representativeness through increased coverage of eastern European countries, the EUROCARE-6 study aimed to update survival progress across countries and years of diagnosis and provide new analytical perspectives on estimates of long-term survival and the cured fraction of patients with childhood cancer. METHODS: In this population-based study, we analysed 135 847 children (aged 0-14 years) diagnosed during 2000-13 and followed up to the end of 2014, recruited from 80 population-based cancer registries in 31 European countries. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival differences by country and over time using period analysis, for all cancers combined and for major cancer types. We applied a variant of standard mixture cure models for survival data to estimate the cure fraction of patients by childhood cancer and to estimate projected 15-year survival. FINDINGS: 5-year survival for all childhood cancer combined in Europe in 2010-14 was 81% (95% CI 81-82), showing an increase of three percentage points compared with 2004-06. Significant progress over time was observed for almost all cancers. Survival remained stable for osteosarcomas, Ewing sarcoma, Burkitt lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, and rhabdomyoscarcomas. For all cancers combined, inequalities still persisted among European countries (with age-adjusted 5-year survival ranging from 71% [95% CI 60-79] to 87% [77-93]). The 15-year survival projection for all patients with childhood cancer diagnosed in 2010-13 was 78%. We estimated the yearly long-term mortality rate due to causes other than the diagnosed cancer to be around 2 per 1000 patients for all childhood cancer combined, but to approach zero for retinoblastoma. The cure fraction for patients with childhood cancer increased over time from 74% (95% CI 73-75) in 1998-2001 to 80% (79-81) in 2010-13. In the latter cohort, the cure fraction rate ranged from 99% (95% CI 74-100) for retinoblastoma to 60% (58-63) for CNS tumours and reached 90% (95% CI 87-93) for lymphoid leukaemia and 70% (67-73) for acute myeloid leukaemia. INTERPRETATION: Childhood cancer survival is increasing over time in Europe but there are still some differences among countries. Regular monitoring of childhood cancer survival and estimation of the cure fraction through population-based registry data are crucial for evaluating advances in paediatric cancer care. FUNDING: European Commission.

Estimating Country-Specific Incidence Rates of Rare Cancers: Comparative Performance Analysis of Modeling Approaches Using European Cancer Registry Data.

Estimating incidence of rare cancers is challenging for exceptionally rare entities and in small populations. In a previous study, investigators in the Information Network on Rare Cancers (RARECARENet) provided Bayesian estimates of expected numbers of rare cancers and 95% credible intervals for 27 European countries, using data collected by population-based cancer registries. In that study, slightly different results were found by implementing a Poisson model in integrated nested Laplace approximation/WinBUGS platforms. In this study, we assessed the performance of a Poisson modeling approach for estimating rare cancer incidence rates, oscillating around an overall European average and using small-count data in different scenarios/computational platforms. First, we compared the performance of frequentist, empirical Bayes, and Bayesian approaches for providing 95% confidence/credible intervals for the expected rates in each country. Second, we carried out an empirical study using 190 rare cancers to assess different lower/upper bounds of a uniform prior distribution for the standard deviation of the random effects. For obtaining a reliable measure of variability for country-specific incidence rates, our results suggest the suitability of using 1 as the lower bound for that prior distribution and selecting the random-effects model through an averaged indicator derived from 2 Bayesian model selection criteria: the deviance information criterion and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion.

Staging childhood cancers in Europe: Application of the Toronto stage principles for neuroblastoma and Wilms tumour. The JARC pilot study.

BACKGROUND: The 'Toronto consensus principles and guidelines' (TG) provided paediatric-specific staging system affordable by population-based cancer registries (CRs). Within the European Rare Cancers Joint Action, a pilot study of the application of TG for childhood cancer (CC) was conducted to test the ability of CRs to reconstruct stage, describe stage across countries and assess survival by stage. PROCEDURE: Twenty-five CRs representing 15 countries contributed data on a representative sample of patients with neuroblastoma (NB) and Wilms tumour (WT) <15 years, diagnosed between 2000 and 2016. Outcome was calculated by Kaplan-Meier method and by Cox regression model. RESULTS: Stage was reconstructed for 95% of cases. Around half of the children had localised or locoregional disease at diagnosis. The proportion of metastatic cases was 38% for NB and 13% for WT. Three-year survival was >90% for locoregional cases both of NB and WT, 58% for NB M-stage and 77% for WT stage-IV. Older age was associated with more advanced stage. CONCLUSIONS: European CRs were able to reconstruct stage according to the TG. Stage should be included in the routine collection of variables. Stage information had clear prognostic value and should be used to investigate survival variations between countries or over time.

Role of gastrointestinal endoscopy in the screening of digestive tract cancers in Europe: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Position Statement.

In Europe at present, but also in 2040, 1 in 3 cancer-related deaths are expected to be caused by digestive cancers. Endoscopic technologies enable diagnosis, with relatively low invasiveness, of precancerous conditions and early cancers, thereby improving patient survival. Overall, endoscopy capacity must be adjusted to facilitate both effective screening programs and rigorous control of the quality assurance and surveillance systems required. 1 : For average-risk populations, ESGE recommends the implementation of organized population-based screening programs FOR COLORECTAL CANCER: , based on fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), targeting individuals, irrespective of gender, aged between 50 and 75 years. Depending on local factors, namely the adherence of the target population and availability of endoscopy services, primary screening by colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy may also be recommendable. 2 : In high-risk populations, endoscopic screening FOR GASTRIC CANCER: should be considered for individuals aged more than 40 years. Its use in countries/regions with intermediate risk may be considered on the basis of local settings and availability of endoscopic resources. 3 : For esophageal and pancreatic cancer, endoscopic screening may be considered only in high-risk individuals:- FOR SQUAMOUS CELL CARCINOMA: , in those with a personal history of head/neck cancer, achalasia, or previous caustic injury; - FOR BARRETT'S ESOPHAGUS (BE)-ASSOCIATED ADENOCARCINOMA: , in those with long-standing gastroesophageal reflux disease symptoms (i. e., > 5 years) and multiple risk factors (age ≥ 50 years, white race, male sex, obesity, first-degree relative with BE or esophageal adenocarcinoma [EAC]). - FOR PANCREATIC CANCER SCREENING: , endoscopic ultrasound may be used in selected high-risk patients such as those with a strong family history and/or genetic susceptibility.

Trends and projections of pleural mesothelioma incidence and mortality in the national priority contaminated sites of Sicily (Southern Italy).

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate short-medium term incidence and mortality projections of pleural malignant mesothelioma (PMM) in Sicily Region (Southern Italy) and in its four National Priority Contaminated Sites (NPCSs). DESIGN: population-based prediction study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: PMM cases from 1998 to 2016 registered by the Regional Operations Centre of the Sicilian Region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: incidence and mortality trends of PMM were estimated for the period 1998-2016 from the relationships among mortality, incidence, and survival. Projections of incidence and mortality rates were obtained up to 2026. RESULTS: age-standardized incidence rates of PMM in Sicily were estimated to increase in men from 1.4 (x100,000) in 1998 to 2.29 in 2021 and to slightly decrease down to 2.2 in 2026. Women age-standardized rates in the same period are estimated to decrease from 0.52 to 0.27. In Biancavilla, age-standardized incidence rates were estimated to remain stable between 8.1 and 8.0 in men, while crude rates increased from 8.3 in 1998 to 10.7 in 2026. For women, the estimated age-standardized incidence rates are increasing from 3.08 to 6.75. In the three pooled NPCSs of Augusta-Priolo, Gela, and Milazzo, the estimates of age-standardized incidence rates show an initial trend to growth followed by a decreasing trend, both in men and women, down to predicted values in 2016 of 3.0 in men and 0.77 in women. Estimated age-standardized and crude mortality rates show, for both sexes and all areas, similar patterns as those estimated for incidence. CONCLUSIONS: in Sicily and in the three NPCSs of Gela, Milazzo, and Priolo, incidence and mortality projections are downward in both sexes. In Biancavilla, mesothelioma occurrence is estimated to increase up to 2026, slightly in males and more significantly in females.

Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. RESULTS: In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

Burden and centralised treatment in Europe of rare tumours: results of RARECAREnet-a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Rare cancers pose challenges for diagnosis, treatments, and clinical decision making. Information about rare cancers is scant. The RARECARE project defined rare cancers as those with an annual incidence of less than six per 100 000 people in European Union (EU). We updated the estimates of the burden of rare cancers in Europe, their time trends in incidence and survival, and provide information about centralisation of treatments in seven European countries. METHODS: We analysed data from 94 cancer registries for more than 2 million rare cancer diagnoses, to estimate European incidence and survival in 2000-07 and the corresponding time trends during 1995-2007. Incidence was calculated as the number of new cases divided by the corresponding total person-years in the population. 5-year relative survival was calculated by the Ederer-2 method. Seven registries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and the Navarra region in Spain) provided additional data for hospitals treating about 220 000 cases diagnosed in 2000-07. We also calculated hospital volume admission as the number of treatments provided by each hospital rare cancer group sharing the same referral pattern. FINDINGS: Rare cancers accounted for 24% of all cancers diagnosed in the EU during 2000-07. The overall incidence rose annually by 0.5% (99·8% CI 0·3-0·8). 5-year relative survival for all rare cancers was 48·5% (95% CI 48·4 to 48·6), compared with 63·4% (95% CI 63·3 to 63·4) for all common cancers. 5-year relative survival increased (overall 2·9%, 95% CI 2·7 to 3·2), from 1999-2001 to 2007-09, and for most rare cancers, with the largest increases for haematological tumours and sarcomas. The amount of centralisation of rare cancer treatment varied widely between cancers and between countries. The Netherlands and Slovenia had the highest treatment volumes. INTERPRETATION: Our study benefits from the largest pool of population-based registries to estimate incidence and survival of about 200 rare cancers. Incidence trends can be explained by changes in known risk factors, improved diagnosis, and registration problems. Survival could be improved by early diagnosis, new treatments, and improved case management. The centralisation of treatment could be improved in the seven European countries we studied. FUNDING: The European Commission (Chafea).

Mortality in Italian veterans deployed in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The possible increase of cancer risk in military personnel deployed in Balkans during and after the 1992-1999 wars, mainly related to the depleted uranium, was addressed by several studies on European veterans of those war theatres. This article reports on the results of the mortality study on the Italian cohort of Bosnia and Kosovo veterans (Balkan cohort). METHODS: Mortality rates for the Balkan cohort (71 144 persons) were compared with those of the Italian general population as well as to those of a comparable and unselected control cohort of not deployed military personnel (114 269 persons). Ascertainment of vital status during the period 1995-2008 of all the persons in the two cohorts has been carried out through deterministic record linkage with the national death records database, from information provided by the respective Armed Force General Staff, and through the civil registry offices of the veterans' residence or birth municipalities. RESULTS: The Balkan cohort experienced a mortality rates lower than both the general population (SMR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.51-0.62) and the control group (SMR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.79-0.97). Cancer mortality in the deployed cohort group was half of that from the general population mortality rates (SMR = 0.50; 95% CI 0.40-0.62) and slightly lower if compared with the control group cancer mortality rates (SMR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.77-1.18). CONCLUSION: Balkan veteran cohort did not show any increase in general mortality or in cancer mortality.

Is long-term cancer survivors' quality of life comparable to that of the general population? An italian study.

PURPOSE: Since long-term survivorship is now a reality for an increasingly number of people with a history of cancer, understanding their quality of life (QoL) can inform health care policy as well as help supporting individual patients. This study was aimed to quantify QoL of this specific population in comparison with data provided for both the general population and cancer patients and to assess QoL association with several sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological variables. METHODS: Three hundred fourteen Italian long-term cancer survivors (people who have been free from cancer and cancer treatments for at least 5 years) completed a battery of questionnaires including the SF12 for QoL assessment. RESULTS: Both physical and mental functioning were higher than those among Italian cancer patients but lower than those of the Italian general population (p < .001). Poorer QoL (physical and mental functioning) was associated more often with psychological conditions (as anxiety and depression) than with sociodemographic and cancer-related variables. CONCLUSIONS: These data support an ongoing specific interest in the QoL of long-term cancer survivors and suggest the need for further study of multidimensional functioning in this population.

Cancer survival in Europe 1999-2007 by country and age: results of EUROCARE--5-a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. EUROCARE-the largest cooperative study of population-based cancer survival in Europe-has shown persistent differences between countries for cancer survival, although in general, cancer survival is improving. Major changes in cancer diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation occurred in the early 2000s. EUROCARE-5 assesses their effect on cancer survival in 29 European countries. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we analysed data from 107 cancer registries for more than 10 million patients with cancer diagnosed up to 2007 and followed up to 2008. Uniform quality control procedures were applied to all datasets. For patients diagnosed 2000-07, we calculated 5-year relative survival for 46 cancers weighted by age and country. We also calculated country-specific and age-specific survival for ten common cancers, together with survival differences between time periods (for 1999-2001, 2002-04, and 2005-07). FINDINGS: 5-year relative survival generally increased steadily over time for all European regions. The largest increases from 1999-2001 to 2005-07 were for prostate cancer (73.4% [95% CI 72.9-73.9] vs 81.7% [81.3-82.1]), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (53.8% [53.3-54.4] vs 60.4% [60.0-60.9]), and rectal cancer (52.1% [51.6-52.6] vs 57.6% [57.1-58.1]). Survival in eastern Europe was generally low and below the European mean, particularly for cancers with good or intermediate prognosis. Survival was highest for northern, central, and southern Europe. Survival in the UK and Ireland was intermediate for rectal cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, skin melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but low for kidney, stomach, ovarian, colon, and lung cancers. Survival for lung cancer in the UK and Ireland was much lower than for other regions for all periods, although results for lung cancer in some regions (central and eastern Europe) might be affected by overestimation. Survival usually decreased with age, although to different degrees depending on region and cancer type. INTERPRETATION: The major advances in cancer management that occurred up to 2007 seem to have resulted in improved survival in Europe. Likely explanations of differences in survival between countries include: differences in stage at diagnosis and accessibility to good care, different diagnostic intensity and screening approaches, and differences in cancer biology. Variations in socioeconomic, lifestyle, and general health between populations might also have a role. Further studies are needed to fully interpret these findings and how to remedy disparities. FUNDING: Italian Ministry of Health, European Commission, Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation, Cariplo Foundation.

Protocol for investigating data quality and reporting outcomes of pediatric gliomas in population-based cancer registry research.

Cancer registry data on pediatric gliomas come with inherent limitations as inclusion criteria and registration practices of these tumors differ between registries due to specific guidelines that are lacking. These limitations can lead to biased estimates in incidence and survival outcomes. Here, we present a protocol to investigate data quality and comparability for retrospective population-based pediatric glioma studies. We describe steps for obtaining institutional permissions, dealing with data quality issues, regrouping tumors, and reporting tumors in a clinically relevant manner. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Hoogendijk et al.1.

Survival and cure trends for European children, adolescents and young adults diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia from 1982 to 2002.

Proportion cured is a potentially more informative cancer outcome measurement than 5-year survival. We present population-based estimates of cure for young patients diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Europe from 1982 to 2002. Thirty-five European cancer registries provided data. Survival was estimated by age, period of diagnosis and European region, and used as input for parametric cure models, which assume cured patients have the same mortality as the general population. For acute lymphoblastic leukemia diagnosed in 1-14 year olds in 2000-2002, over 77% were estimated cured. The proportion cured improved significantly over the study period: an impressive 26-58% in infants (up to 1 year), 70-90% in 1-4 year olds, 63-86% in 5-9 year olds, 52-77% in 10-14 year olds, and 44-50% in 15-24 year olds. Regional variations in proportion cured reduced over time for 1-14 year-olds, but persisted in infants and 15-24 year olds. Five-year survival was always slightly higher than proportion cured. Considerable proportions of young patients were estimated cured of acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, a small excess risk of death persisted beyond five years after diagnosis when patients remained at risk for late treatment effects, late relapses and second primaries.

Survival of European patients diagnosed with myeloid malignancies: a HAEMACARE study.

Population-based information on the survival of patients with myeloid malignancies is rare mainly because some entities were not recognized as malignant until the publication of the third revision of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology and World Health Organization classification in 2000. In this study we report the survival of patients with myeloid malignancies, classified by updated criteria, in Europe. We analyzed 58,800 cases incident between 1995 to 2002 in 48 population-based cancer registries from 20 European countries, classified into HAEMACARE myeloid malignancy groupings. The period approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival in 2000-2002. The relative overall survival rate was 37%, but varied significantly between the major groups: being 17% for acute myeloid leukemia, 20% for myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms, 31% for myelodysplastic syndromes and 63% for myeloproliferative neoplasms. Survival of patients with individual disease entities ranged from 90% for those with essential thrombocythemia to 4% for those with acute myeloid leukemia with multilineage dysplasia. Regional European variations in survival were conspicuous for myeloproliferative neoplasms, with survival rates being lowest in Eastern Europe. This is the first paper to present large-scale, European survival data for patients with myeloid malignancies using prognosis-based groupings of entities defined by the third revision of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology/World Health Organization classifications. Poor survival in some parts of Europe, particularly for treatable diseases such as chronic myeloid leukemia, is of concern for hematologists and public health authorities.

Descriptive epidemiology of the head and neck cancers in old patients.

Background: In Europe, as in other high-income (HI) countries, quite half of the newly diagnosed patients with head and neck (H and N) cancers are older than 65 years of age and their proportion within the prevalent cases is even higher. Moreover, the incidence rate (IR) for all H and N cancers sites increased with age and the survival rate is lower in older patients (≥65), compared with younger patients (<65). The number of older patients affected by H and N cancers will increase because of the increase in life expectancy. The aim of the article is to provide an epidemiological description of H and N cancers in the elderly population. Material and methods: Incidence and prevalence data by time periods and continents were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory. The survival information for Europe is obtained from the EUROCARE and RARECAREnet projects. In 2020, according to the results from these data, slightly more than 900,000 cases have been diagnosed with H and N cancers in the world, and approximately 40% were older than 65 years of age. This percentage was higher, reaching approximately 50% in the HI countries. The highest number of cases was in the Asiatic populations, while the highest crude IR was in Europe and Oceania. Among H and N cancers occurring in the elderly, laryngeal and oral cavity cancers were the most common, while nasal cavities and nasopharyngeal cancers were the rarest. This was true for all the countries, excluding some Asiatic populations, in which tumour of the nasopharynx was more common. The five-year survival rate in the European population was low in the elderly, compared with the younger for all H and N cancers, and it ranged from approximately 60% for both salivary-gland type and laryngeal to 22% for hypopharyngeal tumors. For the elderly, the conditional 5-year survival after surviving one year became more than 60% for many H and N epithelial tumors. Conclusion: The high variability in the H and N cancer incidence around the world is due to the distribution of the major risk factors which for the elderly are mainly alcohol and smoking. The reasons for low survival in the elderly are most likely due to the complexity of treatment, the late arrival of patients at diagnosis, and the difficult access to specialized centers.

Prediction of Risk of Metastatic Recurrence for Female Breast Cancer Patients in the Presence of Competing Causes of Death.

BACKGROUND: To estimate risk of recurrence for women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer considering the risks of other causes mortality. METHODS: We extend a method based on the diagnosis-metastasis-death pathway to include risks of other causes mortality. We estimate three probabilities as cumulative incidence of: (i) being alive and recurrence-free, (ii) death for other causes before a recurrence, and (iii) recurrence. We apply the method to female breast cancer relative survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program registries (2000-2018) data. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of recurrence shows a higher increase with more advanced cancer stage and is less influenced by age at diagnosis. At 5 years from diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of recurrence is less than 3% for those diagnosed with stage I, 10% to 13% for those diagnosed with stage II, and 37% to 47% for those diagnosed with stage III breast cancer. The estimates of recurrence considering versus ignoring the risks of dying from other causes were generally consistent, except for older women with more advanced stage, and longer time since diagnosis. In these groups, the net probability of recurrence, excluding the risks of dying from other causes, were overestimated. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with cancer who are older or long-term survivors, it is important to include the risks of other cause mortality as the crude cumulative incidence of recurrence is a more appropriate measure. IMPACT: These estimates are important in clinical decision making, as higher competing mortality may preclude the benefits of aggressive treatments.

Cancer prevalence in Italy: an analysis of geographic variability.

PURPOSE: Statistics on cancer prevalence are scanty. The objectives of this study were to describe the cancer prevalence in Italy and to explore determinants of geographic heterogeneity. METHODS: The study included data from 23 population-based cancer registries, including one-third of the Italian population. Five-year cancer prevalence was observed, and complete prevalence (i.e., all patients living after a cancer diagnosis) was estimated through sex-, age-, cancer site-, and observation period length-specific completeness indices by means of regression models. RESULTS: In 2006, 3.8 % of men and 4.6 % of women in Italy were alive after a cancer diagnosis, with a 5-year prevalence of 1.9 % and 1.7 % in men and women, respectively. A relevant geographic variability emerged for all major cancer sites. When compared to national pooled estimates, crude cancer prevalence proportions were 10 % higher in the north and 30 % lower in the south of Italy. However, these variations were consistently reduced after age adjustment and, in both sexes, largely overlapped those of incidence rates, with correlations >0.90 between variations of prevalence and incidence for all cancer sites and areas. CONCLUSIONS: Magnitude of the cancer prevalence and the geographic heterogeneity herein outlined in Italy will help in meeting the needs of specific population of survivor patients.

Incidence of hematologic malignancies in Europe by morphologic subtype: results of the HAEMACARE project.

Changing definitions and classifications of hematologic malignancies (HMs) complicate incidence comparisons. HAEMACARE classified HMs into groupings consistent with the latest World Health Organization classification and useful for epidemiologic and public health purposes. We present crude, age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for European HMs according to these groupings, estimated from 66,371 lymphoid malignancies (LMs) and 21,796 myeloid malignancies (MMs) registered in 2000-2002 by 44 European cancer registries, grouped into 5 regions. Age-standardized incidence rates were 24.5 (per 100,000) for LMs and 7.55 for MMs. The commonest LMs were plasma cell neoplasms (4.62), small B-cell lymphocytic lymphoma/chronic lymphatic leukemia (3.79), diffuse B-cell lymphoma (3.13), and Hodgkin lymphoma (2.41). The commonest MMs were acute myeloid leukemia (2.96), other myeloproliferative neoplasms (1.76), and myelodysplastic syndrome (1.24). Unknown morphology LMs were commonest in Northern Europe (7.53); unknown morphology MMs were commonest in Southern Europe (0.73). Overall incidence was lowest in Eastern Europe and lower in women than in men. For most LMs, incidence was highest in Southern Europe; for MMs incidence was highest in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Differences in diagnostic and registration criteria are an important cause of incidence variation; however, different distribution of HM risk factors also contributes. The quality of population-based HM data needs further improvement.