Mortality and cancer incidence in a population exposed to TCDD after the Seveso, Italy, accident (1976-2013).

OBJECTIVES: The Seveso accident (1976) caused the contamination with 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-para-dioxin (TCDD) in an area north of Milan, Italy. We report the results of the update of mortality and cancer incidence in the exposed population through 2013. METHODS: The study cohort includes subjects living in three contaminated zones with decreasing TCDD soil concentrations (zone A, B and R) and in a surrounding uncontaminated territory (reference). Poisson models stratified/adjusted for gender, age and period were fitted to calculate rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: In zone A in males, we found elevated mortality from circulatory diseases in the first decade after the accident (17 deaths, RR 2.00, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.23). In females, mortality from diabetes mellitus was increased, with a positive trend across zones. Incidence of soft tissue sarcoma was increased in males in zone R in the first decade (6 cases, RR 2.62, 95% CI 1.01 to 6.83). In females in zone B, there was an excess of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma after 30 years (6 cases, RR 2.87, 95% CI 1.14 to 7.23). Multiple myeloma was increased in the second decade in females in zone B (4 cases, RR 5.09, 95% CI 1.82 to 14.2) and in males in zone R (11 cases, RR 2.15, 95% CI 1.08 to 4.26). In males in zone R, there was a leukaemia excess after 30 years (23 cases, RR 2.02, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.93). CONCLUSIONS: Although with different patterns across gender, zone and time, we confirmed previous results of increased cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, soft tissue sarcoma, and lymphatic and haematopoietic cancers.

[Analysis of predictive factors for non-adherence to organized screening for colorectal and breast cancers in the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019) in Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)]. / Analisi dei fattori predittivi della mancata adesione allo screening organizzato per i tumori del colon retto e della mammella nel periodo pre-pandemico (2018-2019) in Lombardia.

BACKGROUND: according to the International Agency for Cancer Research on Cancer, in 2022, breast cancer is the most common cancer in the Italian population, followed by colorectal cancer. Oncological screenings represent an effective secondary prevention strategy to counteract colorectal and breast cancers, significantly reducing mortality. In Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), screening programmes have been active since 2007, but adherence, especially in specific population subgroups, remains lower than expected. OBJECTIVES: to analyse potential predictors of non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening in the Lombardy Region during the pre-pandemic period of 2018-2019. DESIGN: a retrospective cohort study aimed at investigating the role of sociodemographic variables, health status, and access to the healthcare system on non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by each Agency for Health Protection (ATS). The results of the models were synthesized across the Lombardy region through random-effects meta-analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents within the territory of each ATS in Lombardy as of 01.01.2018 and aged between 49 and 69 years at the beginning of the follow-up. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screenings. RESULTS: during the study period, across the Lombardy Region, 2,820,138 individuals were eligible to participate in colorectal cancer screening, and 1,357,344 women were eligible to participate in breast cancer screening, with an invitation coverage of 87% and 86%, respectively.For breast cancer screening, older age, cardiopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), autoimmune diseases, and presence of a rare disease are associated with a reduced risk of non-adherence. Conversely, foreign citizenship, oncological diagnosis, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, and presence of a neurological diagnosis are associated with significant excess risks of non-participation. For colorectal cancer screening, factors favouring adherence include female gender, older age, cardiopathy, COPD, autoimmune diseases, and having access/utilization of primary care. Non-adherence is associated with foreign citizenship, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, IBD, neurological diseases, residence in assisted living facilities, use of integrated home care, and presence of disability. CONCLUSIONS: this is the first study conducted in the Lombardy Region which explores the theme of equity of access to organized screenings. This analysis highlights how sociodemographic determinants, chronic conditions, and access to the healthcare and social healthcare system constitute significant risk factors for non-adherence to screening programmes. Based on the results of this analysis, communication and/or organizational change interventions will be developed to counteract inequalities in access to effective prevention procedures.

Grandparenting during pandemic times: pros and cons for mental health.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures posed an unprecedented challenge to the crucial role of grandparenting in family-oriented cultures, such as Italy. Reduced contact with grandchildren during this period potentially threatened grandparents' mental health and well-being. METHODS: We analysed data from the LOckdown and lifeSTyles in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020. The study included a representative sample of 4400 older adults from Lombardy, Italy, of which 1289 provided childcare to their grandchildren. RESULTS: A decrease in self-reported grandparenting was associated with an increased likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms among grandparents (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.01-2.24). Conversely, an increase in grandparenting was linked to poorer sleep quality (OR 11.67, 95% CI 5.88-23.17) and reduced sleep quantity (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.45-4.41). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the barriers posed by the pandemic, grandparenting played a beneficial role in maintaining the mental health and well-being of older adults. However, it is crucial to recognise specific vulnerabilities, such as gender, feelings of hopelessness and overcrowding, which can have detrimental effects during and beyond emergency situations. Careful attention to these factors is essential for developing targeted support systems and interventions aimed at safeguarding the mental health of older adults and enhancing their resilience in crises.

Health and social home services among community-dwelling older people during COVID-19: Results from the cross-sectional LOST in Lombardia project.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have focused on changes in health and social services access due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to describe changes in the use of selected health and social home services due to the pandemic and to investigate potential associated factors, including socio-demographic characteristics, number of chronic diseases and mental health indicators, among older Italian individuals. METHODS: We analysed data from the LOST in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020 on a large representative sample of 4400 individuals aged ⩾65 years. To identify potential factors associated with the increased use of three selected health and social home services, we estimated odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Compared to the year before, 5.0% of older adults increased help from domestic workers (vs. 6.9% reducing) during the pandemic, 4.4% increased help from non-familiar caregivers (vs. 1.3% decreasing) and 4.7% increased medical home visits (vs. 1.0% decreasing). An increase in the use of these services was more frequent among participants with co-morbidities (p for trend <0.001), especially with diabetes (for caregivers: OR=12.2, 95% CI 6.0-24.8), and worse mental health (for caregivers and for those with a GAD-2 score ⩾3 vs. <3: OR=10.6, 95% CI 5.8-19.4). Conversely, people living in more crowded households less frequently increased health and social services use during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Our results should inform targeted interventions for the identified vulnerable groups to close the gap in health and social inequities.

Who are the superheroes? A cross-sectional study on the determinants of good health among Italian older adults.

BACKGROUND: People who reach old age enjoying good physical and mental health can be defined as (health) "superheroes", given their relatively low impact on healthcare expenditure and the desirable model they represent. AIM: To evaluate prevalence and possible determinants of being "physical superheroes" (i.e., free from the ten major chronic conditions, plus obesity), "mental superheroes" (i.e., free from major mental symptoms), and "superheroes" (i.e., both mental and physical superheroes). METHODS: A telephone-based cross-sectional study (LOST in Lombardia) was conducted in November 2020 (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic) on a representative sample of 4,400 adults aged ≥ 65 years from Lombardy region, northern Italy. All participants provided both current data and data referring to one year before. RESULTS: Mental and physical superheroes were 59.0% and 17.6%, respectively. Superheroes were 12.8% overall, 15.1% among men, and 11.1% among women; 20.2% among individuals aged 65-69 years, 11.3% among 70-74, 10.0% among 75-79, and 8.3% among ≥ 80 years. Multivariable analysis showed that female sex, higher age, disadvantaged socio-economic status, and physical inactivity (p for trend < 0.001) were inversely related to being superheroes. People not smoking (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.40), alcohol abstainers (aOR = 1.30), and those free from feelings of hopelessness (aOR = 5.92) more frequently met the definition of superheroes. During COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of superheroes decreased by 16.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the older adults' health status are largely attributable to their lifestyles but are also likely due to gender, educational, and socio-economic disparities, which should be properly addressed by public health policies.

Excess risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: Results from the first Italian population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about late effects in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors is scarce. This study assessed the risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) to identify the most common SMNs to be considered in follow-up care. METHODS: Population-based cancer registries retrospectively identified first primary tumors (between 1976 and 2013) and SMNs in AYAs (15-39 years old at their cancer diagnosis). AYA cancer survivors were those alive at least 5 years after their first cancer diagnosis. The excess risk of SMNs was measured as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risk together with the cumulative incidence of SMNs. RESULTS: The cohort included 67,692 AYA cancer survivors. The excess risk of developing any SMN (SIR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-1.7) was 60%. The excess risk of SMNs was significantly high for survivors of lymphomas; cancers of the breast, thyroid, female genital tract, digestive organs, gonads, and urinary tract; and melanomas. The cumulative incidence of all SMNs in AYA cancer survivors within 25 years of their first cancer diagnosis was approximately 10%. Subsequent tumors contributing to approximately 60% of all SMNs were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer in females and colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and lymphomas in males. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the need to personalize follow-up strategies for AYA cancer survivors.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdown announcements on mental health: quasi-natural experiment in Lombardy, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Evidence showed that mental health problems have risen markedly during COVID-19. It is unclear if part of the mental sufferings relates to the climate of uncertainty and confusion originated from rough communication by health officials and politicians. Here, we test the impact of unanticipated policy announcements of lockdown policies on mental health of the older population. METHODS: We used a representative telephone-based survey of 4400 people aged 65 years or older in Italy's Lombardy region to compare information on self-reported symptoms of anxiety, depression and poor-quality sleep of subjects interviewed on the days of the policy announcement with that of subjects interviewed on other days. We used regression models adjusting for potential socio-demographic confounders as well study design with inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: On days when policymakers announced to extend the lockdown, mental health deteriorated on average by 5.5 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-9.8] for self-reported anxiety symptoms and 5.1 percentage points (95% CI: 2.7-7.4) for self-reported depressive symptoms. The effect of the announcement to shorten the lockdown is more moderate but statistically significant. These associations were short term in duration; after just 1 day, self-reported mental health and sleep quality return to levels better than pre-announcement until a new policy change. CONCLUSIONS: Our research shows that lockdown policy announcements are associated with short-term worsening in mental distress, highlighting the importance of appropriate communication strategies and political determinations in crisis times.

Assessing the mortality risk in older patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of sepsis: the role of frailty and acute organ dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: A prognostic stratification of mortality risk in older patients with sepsis admitted to medical wards is often challenging. AIMS: To evaluate the ability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, serum biomarkers (lactate and C-Reactive Protein, CRP), and measures of comorbidity and frailty in predicting in-hospital and 6-month mortality in a cohort of older patients admitted to an Acute Geriatric Unit (AGU) with a diagnosis of sepsis. METHODS: All patients aged 70 years and over consecutively admitted to our AGU with sepsis in the study period were included. At admission, a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment including two measures of frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale [CFS], Frailty Index [FI]) was obtained. To assess the predictivity of candidate prognostic markers, the Area Under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curves were analyzed. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was also performed. RESULTS: We included 240 patients (median age = 85, IQR = 80-89, 40.8% women), of whom 33.8% died before discharge, and 60.4% at 6 months. The SOFA score (AUROC = 0.678, 95% CI 0.610-0.747) and CRP serum levels (AUROC = 0.606, 95% CI 0.532-0.680) were good predictors of in-hospital mortality. The CFS (AUROC = 0.703, 95% CI 0.637-0.768) and the FI (AUROC = 0.677, 95% CI 0.607-0.746) better predicted 6-month mortality. Results of the regression analysis confirmed the findings of the AUROC study. The combined assessment of SOFA and measures of frailty improved the performance of the model both in the short and the long term. CONCLUSIONS: Both the severity of organ dysfunction and frailty scores should be addressed on AGU admission to establish the short- and long-term outcomes of older patients with sepsis.

Changes in a Mediterranean lifestyle during the COVID-19 pandemic among elderly Italians: an analysis of gender and socioeconomic inequalities in the "LOST in Lombardia" study.

Little is known on potential socioeconomic and gender disparities in dietary changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a telephone-based survey during fall 2020 on 4400 participants representative of the population aged 65-99 years living in Lombardy, Italy. Changes in a Mediterranean lifestyle were assessed retrospectively by scoring modifications in the consumption of nine food groups and five diet-related behaviours compared to 2019. A Mediterranean COVID-19 Pandemic Score (MedCovid-19 Score) was computed, reflecting changes during pandemic, with increasing values indicating improvements in line with a Mediterranean lifestyle. Predictors of favourable dietary changes (MedCovid-19 Score ≥ 1) were education (odds ratio [OR] = 1.52; 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.95 for postgraduate vs. lower), wealth (OR = 1.52; 1.14-2.02 for high vs. low) and skilled manual occupations (OR = 1.57; 1.28-1.92 vs. white collars). Women were more likely than men to move away from a Mediterranean lifestyle (OR = 1.86; 1.58-2.21). In conclusions, changes towards a Mediterranean lifestyle were disproportionately distributed across gender and socioeconomic strata.

[Effects on mortality and morbidity among the population living close to the Valmadrera (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) incinerator]. / Effetti sulla mortalità e morbilità nella popolazione residente nei pressi dell'inceneritore di Valmadrera (LC).

OBJECTIVES: assessment of the health effects on the resident population around the incinerator for municipal solid waste in Valmadrera (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) in relation to the exposure level to the pollutants produced by the plant. DESIGN: historical cohort study, based on the resident population from 2003 to 2016 in the study area. With a dispersion model, based on PM10 emitted by the plant, three areas of exposure (high, medium, low) were defined and, on the basis of the residence of the cohort, different exposure levels were attributed to the subjects. The association between level of exposure and health effects were estimated by comparing the high and medium exposure levels with the low exposure level, using a Cox model, adjusted for age and socioeconomic deprivation index. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: mortality rates, hospitalization rates, cancer incidence rates, and perinatal outcomes were analysed for the main causes potentially associated with exposure to incineration plants. RESULTS: the subjects enrolled in the cohort were 106,056 (1,000,242 person-years). There were no statistically significant excesses of risk for almost all the outcomes investigated. Excessive mortality and hospitalization were found for liver/biliary cancers (HR women: 2.57; 95%CI 1.15-2.79; HR men: 2.22; 95%CI 1.10-4, 84). In the municipality where the plant is located, an excess prevalence (OR 1.78; 95%CI 1.43-2.21) of hepatitis C was found. CONCLUSIONS: the results suggest the absence of a relationship between residence in areas with different levels of pollutants emitted by the plant and the onset of almost all diseases. The associated causes do not have aetiological plausibility with exposure to pollutants from waste incineration. In particular, for liver/liver and biliary cancer, the association with infectious causes rather than exposure to environmental pollutants is more plausible.

Immunogenicity and effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine in a cohort of healthcare workers in Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy).

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate immunogenicity and effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCWs). DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: in a hospital in Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) HCWs without ("negative cohort") and with ("positive cohort") history of SARS-CoV-2 infection or elevated serum antibody before the vaccination campaign (27.12.2020) were included. Data collection and follow-up covered the period 27.12.2020-13.05.2022. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: 1. serum anti-spike-1 (anti-S1) antibody levels after vaccination; 2. vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infections (either symptomatic or not) in the negative cohort. Data on infections were extracted from multiple sources (laboratory, accident reports, questionnaires). Vaccination was treated as a time-dependent variable. Using unvaccinated person-time as reference, hazard ratios (HR) of infections and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated with a Cox regression model adjusted for gender, age, and occupation. VE was calculated as (1 - HR)×100. RESULTS: 5,596 HCWs were included, 4,771 in the negative and 825 in the positive cohort. In both cohorts, serum anti-S1 antibodies were high one months after the second dose, halved after six months, and returned to high levels after the third dose. In the negative cohort, 1,401 SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified. VE was 70% (95%CI 54-80; 46 infected) in the first four months after the second dose and later declined to 16% (95%CI 0-43; 97 infected). After the third dose, VE increased to 57% (95%CI 35-71; 61 infected) in the first month but rapidly declined over time, particularly after three months (24% in the fourth month and 1% afterwards). The number of infections avoided by vaccination was estimated to be 643 (95%CI 236-1,237). CONCLUSIONS: in spite of rapidly declining effectiveness, vaccination helped to avoid several hundred infections in the considered hospital.

Prevalence, clinical correlates, and burden of undiagnosed aortic stenosis in older patients: a prospective study in a non-cardiologic acute hospital ward.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of aortic stenosis (AS) in older patients admitted to non-cardiologic acute hospital wards and the effect of AS on mid-term survival are incompletely reported. In a cohort of very old patients admitted to an acute geriatric unit (AGU), we aimed to assess: (1) the prevalence of newly and previously diagnosed AS; and (2) the association between AS severity and patients' 6-month mortality. METHODS: The patients consecutively admitted in two AGU rooms from February 2016 to February 2018 were assessed with echocardiography and AS severity was defined according to standard criteria. We assessed frailty using a 34-item Frailty Index (34-FI), which was operationalized using health variable information, and the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Vital status at 6 months was extracted from Regional Register of Birth and Death. RESULTS: Two hundred and three patients (mean age 84.5 ± 6.0 SD, female gender 56.1%) were included. Of these, 57 (28.1%) had AS, mild in 9 (4.5%), moderate in 32 (16.1%) and severe in 16 (8.1%). A new diagnosis of AS was obtained in 42 (73.7%) patients, of whom 33 (78.6%) had moderate or severe AS. At 6 months, 61 (28.9%) patients died. In multiple regression models, after adjusting for covariates, frailty, as assessed with both FI and CFS, was independent predictor of 6-month mortality whereas AS was not. CONCLUSIONS: Among older patients admitted to non-cardiologic acute hospital wards, AS was common and frequently underdiagnosed. The severity of AS was not associated with increased 6-month mortality, whereas frailty was the most important predictor.

Generation and validation of algorithms to identify subjects with dementia using administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: To generate and validate algorithms for the identification of individuals with dementia in the community setting, by the interrogation of administrative records, an inexpensive and already available source of data. METHODS: We collected and anonymized information on demented individuals 65 years of age or older from ten general practitioners (GPs) in the district of Brianza (Northern Italy) and compared this with the administrative data of the local health protection agency (Agenzia per la Tutela della Salute). Indicators of the disease in the administrative database (diagnosis of dementia in the hospital discharge records; use of cholinesterase inhibitors/memantine; neuropsychological tests; brain CT/MRI; outpatient neurological visits) were used separately and in different combinations to generate algorithms for the detection of patients with dementia. RESULTS: When used individually, indicators of dementia showed good specificity, but low sensitivity. By their combination, we generated different algorithms: I-therapy with ChEI/memantine or diagnosis of dementia at discharge or neuropsychological tests (specificity 97.9%, sensitivity 52.5%); II-therapy with ChEI/memantine or diagnosis of dementia at discharge or neuropsychological tests or brain CT/MRI or neurological visit (sensitivity 90.8%, specificity 70.6%); III-therapy with ChEI/memantine or diagnosis of dementia at discharge or neuropsychological tests or brain CT/MRIMRI and neurological visit (specificity 89.3%, sensitivity 73.3%). CONCLUSIONS: These results show that algorithms obtained from administrative data are not sufficiently accurate in classifying patients with dementia, whichever combination of variables is used for the identification of the disease. Studies in large patient cohorts are needed to develop further strategies for identifying patients with dementia in the community setting.

Comorbidity assessment as predictor of short and long-term mortality in elderly patients with hemodynamically stable acute pulmonary embolism.

Elderly patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) frequently have significant underlying comorbidities which may condition the prognosis. The current study aimed to determine the ability of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score to predict short and long-term mortality in elderly patients with hemodynamically stable acute PE. All hemodynamically stable patients aged >65 years with acute PE, evaluated in the Emergency Department since 2010 through 2014, were included in this retrospective cohort study. CCI, simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) scores and vital status were recorded. Were included 162 patients with confirmed PE, out of 657 suspected cases (24.7%). Median age: 79.2 years, 74.1% presented an sPESI > 1 and 61.1% a CCI > 1. The overall 30, 90-day and 2-year mortality was 11.7% (95%CI 6.6-16.6), 19.8% (95%CI 13.4-25.7) and 31.8% (95%CI 24.1-38.8). For 30-day mortality sPESI showed an AUC 0.642 (95%CI 0.511-0.772) and adding CCI as covariate did not increase its prognostic performance. For 90-day mortality, in an adjusted model including sPESI and CCI, CCI showed a HR 1.282 (95%CI 1.151-1.429, p-value < 0.001), and sPESI a HR = NS(p-value = 0.267). For 2-year mortality, in an adjusted model including sPESI and CCI, CCI showed a HR 1.295 (95%CI 1.180-1.421, p-value < 0.001) and sPESI a HR = NS(p-value = 0.353). In elderly patients with hemodynamically stable PE, the CCI score was found to be an independent predictor of mortality. CCI shows a significantly better ability to predict 90-day and 2-year mortality than sPESI. The assessment of comorbidity burden by using the CCI score may be proposed as an useful tool to predict mortality in these patients.

Prognostic value of D-dimer in elderly patients with Pulmonary Embolism.

In a general population with acute Pulmonary Embolism (PE) elevated D-dimer concentrations associate with increased mortality. The aim of the study was to assess the ability of D-dimer to predict 30 and 90-days mortality in elderly patients with acute PE. Hemodynamically stable patients aged ≥65 years old with confirmed PE were included in this retrospective cohort study. A pulmonary computerized tomography angiography scan, D-dimer concentrations, simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) variables and vital status were available for all patients. The study included 154 confirmed cases of PE (23.5 % of suspected), median age 79.1 years. D-dimer was higher in patients dead than in those alive at 30 (median 14,547 vs. 8340 ng/mL, p = 0.05) and 90 days (13,604 vs. 7973 ng/mL, p = 0.013). When adding D-dimer to sPESI, the discriminant capacity to predict mortality within 30 and 90 days was increased by 0.080 and 0.089, respectively. The contribution of D-dimer to the discriminating ability was NRI = 0.286 (95 % CI -0.198 to 0.770, p value: 0.247) at 30 days and NRI = 0.605 (95 % CI 0.223-0.988, p-value: 0.002) at 90 days.D-dimer concentration was associated with 30 and 90-days mortality and showed a higher discriminant capacity than sPESI alone to predict 90-days mortality. Adding D-dimer concentrations to sPESI score seems to improve its prognostic ability, supporting multivariable risk models as the best approach to estimate prognosis in elderly patients with PE.

[A set of indicators to monitor the adherence to the guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer]. / Indicatori per il monitoraggio dei percorsi diagnostico-terapeutici del tumore della mammella.

OBJECTIVES: to present a set of indicators developed from six Local Health Authorities of the Lombardy Region to monitor the diagnostic and therapeutic pathway of breast cancer patients, applied to 2007-2009 incident cases. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all subjects with primary breast cancer, incident in the period 2007-2009, and collected by cancer registries of Milano 1, Bergamo, Cremona, Milano, Milano 2 and Monza-Brianza (5,320,272 inhabitants) were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: through the use of combined current health databases (health registry, hospitalizations, outpatient, pharmaceutical prescription and specific database for anticancer drugs), for each incident case 34 different indicators have been developed to measure the appropriateness of the procedures provided for diagnosis, treatment (surgical and medical) and follow-up. For each indicator, we analyzed the relationship with age, stage, deprivation index, type of treatment, volume of the specific procedure of the hospital where primary surgery was performed. Estimates were adjusted using multilevel regression models. RESULTS: 12,988 incident cases, without metastatic diseases and other cancers, were included in the cohort: 62% were localized to the breast, 33% to the axillary lymph-nodes, 3% metastatic ab initio, and 2% with unknown stage. Deviations from the expected value of different magnitude depending on the type of indicator were observed: the most important differences were detected for the follow-up indicators. There was, in fact, an excess of several procedures in the first year of follow-up: 75% of the cases performed a dosage of a tumor marker, 67% an ecography or a CT scan or an MR, and 37% a bone scan. On the other hand, the access to neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatments in older women was far below the expected values. CONCLUSIONS: the study presents data derived from a large cohort of population cases; the set of indicators was validated by a board of oncologists. The use of indicators calculated by linking the cancer registries (that provide staging) and administrative databases allows the assessment of compliance to the guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of tumours. This experience shows that it is possible to develop a methodology, shared with clinicians, to define indicators that measure the distance between guidelines and current clinical practice in order to decrease variability, to limit inappropriateness, and to reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests for patients (and, consequently, hospitals organizational overload). In order to be sustainable and equitable, a health care system must be able to ensure implementation of protocols/procedures based exclusively on the best available scientific evidences.

Blood cell differential count discretisation modelling to predict survival in adults reporting to the emergency room: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the survival predictivity of baseline blood cell differential count (BCDC), discretised according to two different methods, in adults visiting an emergency room (ER) for illness or trauma over 1 year. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of hospital records. SETTING: Tertiary care public hospital in northern Italy. PARTICIPANTS: 11 052 patients aged >18 years, consecutively admitted to the ER in 1 year, and for whom BCDC collection was indicated by ER medical staff at first presentation. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Survival was the referral outcome for explorative model development. Automated BCDC analysis at baseline assessed haemoglobin, mean cell volume (MCV), red cell distribution width (RDW), platelet distribution width (PDW), platelet haematocrit (PCT), absolute red blood cells, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, basophils and platelets. Discretisation cut-offs were defined by benchmark and tailored methods. Benchmark cut-offs were stated based on laboratory reference values (Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute). Tailored cut-offs for linear, sigmoid-shaped and U-shaped distributed variables were discretised by maximally selected rank statistics and by optimal-equal HR, respectively. Explanatory variables (age, gender, ER admission during SARS-CoV2 surges and in-hospital admission) were analysed using Cox multivariable regression. Receiver operating curves were drawn by summing the Cox-significant variables for each method. RESULTS: Of 11 052 patients (median age 67 years, IQR 51-81, 48% female), 59% (n=6489) were discharged and 41% (n=4563) were admitted to the hospital. After a 306-day median follow-up (IQR 208-417 days), 9455 (86%) patients were alive and 1597 (14%) deceased. Increased HRs were associated with age >73 years (HR=4.6, 95% CI=4.0 to 5.2), in-hospital admission (HR=2.2, 95% CI=1.9 to 2.4), ER admission during SARS-CoV2 surges (Wave I: HR=1.7, 95% CI=1.5 to 1.9; Wave II: HR=1.2, 95% CI=1.0 to 1.3). Gender, haemoglobin, MCV, RDW, PDW, neutrophils, lymphocytes and eosinophil counts were significant overall. Benchmark-BCDC model included basophils and platelet count (area under the ROC (AUROC) 0.74). Tailored-BCDC model included monocyte counts and PCT (AUROC 0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline discretised BCDC provides meaningful insight regarding ER patients' survival.

Older Adults' Access to Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the LOckdown and LifeSTyles (LOST) in Lombardia Project.

The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionally affected older people in terms of clinical outcomes and care provision. We aimed to investigate older adults' changes in access to care during the pandemic and their determinants. We used data from a cross-sectional study (LOST in Lombardia) conducted in autumn 2020 on a representative sample of 4400 older adults from the most populated region in Italy. Lifestyles, mental health, and access to healthcare services before and during the pandemic were collected. To identify factors associated with care delays, reduction in emergency department (ED) access, and hospitalisations, we estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using multivariable log-binomial regression models. During the pandemic, compared to the year before, 21.5% of the study population increased telephone contacts with the general practitioner (GP) and 9.6% increased self-pay visits, while 22.4% decreased GP visits, 12.3% decreased outpatient visits, 9.1% decreased diagnostic exams, 7.5% decreased ED access, and 6% decreased hospitalisations. The prevalence of care delays due to patient's decision (overall 23.8%) was higher among men (PR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.29), subjects aged 75 years or more (PR 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.25), and those with a higher economic status (p for trend < 0.001). Participants with comorbidities more frequently cancelled visits and reduced ED access or hospitalisations, while individuals with worsened mental health status reported a higher prevalence of care delays and ED access reductions. Access to care decreased in selected sub-groups of older adults during the pandemic with likely negative impacts on mortality and morbidity in the short and long run.

Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the Older Adult Population: Data from the LOST in Lombardia Study.

Most COVID-19 fatalities have occurred among older adults; however, evidence regarding the determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this population is limited. Telephone interviews were conducted in November 2020 with a representative sample of 4400 Italians aged ≥65 years from the Lombardy region. We determined the prevalence of a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Through unconditional multiple logistic regression models, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) of infection and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We further evaluated whether infection was related to a reduction in mental wellbeing. Of the participants, 4.9% reported a previous infection. No significant relationship between sex and infection was observed. Prior infection was less frequently reported in subjects aged ≥70 (OR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.41-0.74) compared to 65-69 years, with no trend after 70 years of age. Those with at least one chronic condition reported a lower infection rate compared to healthy subjects (OR = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.49-0.93). Participants who lived alone more frequently reported infection than those who cohabited (OR = 2.33; 95% CI: 1.29-4.20). Prior infection was related to increased depressive symptoms (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.17-2.10). This representative study of people aged ≥65 years suggests that in Italy, the oldest subjects and chronic patients less frequently exposed themselves to SARS-CoV-2 infection.