Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Bevacizumab Biosimilars Versus Originator Bevacizumab for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Comparative Study Using Real-World Data.

OBJECTIVES: MVASI (Amgen) and Zirabev (Pfizer) are 2 of the earliest bevacizumab biosimilars approved for the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). We aimed to confirm and quantify the real-world cost savings and cost-effectiveness of MVASI and Zirabev relative to originator bevacizumab for patients with mCRC. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada, where originator and biosimilar bevacizumab are universally publicly funded. All mCRC patients who received originator bevacizumab between January 2008 and August 2019 or biosimilar bevacizumab between August 2019 and March 2021 were propensity score matched (1:4) to adjust for baseline differences. Total 1-year patient-level costs (CAD) and effects (life years [LY] and quality-adjusted LYs) were calculated from the public health payer's perspective. Primary outcomes included incremental net monetary benefit and incremental net health benefit (INHB). Sensitivity analyses included a subgroup analysis by biosimilar type (MVASI/Zirabev) and a 2-year analysis. RESULTS: The matched cohort included 747 biosimilar cases and 2945 comparators. Bevacizumab biosimilars were associated with an incremental cost of -$6379 (95%CI: -9417, -3537) (ie, cost saving) and incremental effect of 0.0 (95% CI: -0.02, 0.02) LY and -0.01 (95% CI: -0.03, 0) quality-adjusted LYs gained. Incremental net monetary benefit and INHB estimates were $6331 (95% CI: 6245, 6417) and 0.127 LY (95% CI: 0.125, 0.128), respectively, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/life year gained, with all estimates indicating the cost-effectiveness of biosimilar bevacizumab. Cost-effectiveness remained consistent across biosimilar brand subgroups and 2-year sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Bevacizumab biosimilars demonstrated real-world cost savings while providing similar survival benefit as originator bevacizumab, confirming the initial expectations of their implementation and supporting health system sustainability.

Cancer Drug Wastage and Mitigation Methods: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review published evidence on cancer drug wastage and the effectiveness of mitigation methods. METHODS: Search keywords for Scopus, PubMed, and EMBASE were developed using the Pearl Growing technique. Relevant articles were identified in a two-step process: first based on titles/abstracts, then on full article reviews. Among the identified English peer-reviewed articles, those considering adults ≥18 years and relevant cancer drug wastage outcomes were included. Key concepts and measures for drug wastage and its mitigation were tabulated. Trends in publication numbers were analyzed using Mann-Kendall tests. Costs were converted first to 2024 local currencies using country-wise consumer price indexes, and then to 2024 USD using exchange rates. RESULTS: Among 6,298 unique articles, 94 met the inclusion criteria. Seventy-four (79%) of these were published since 2015, highlighting increasing attention to cancer drug wastage. Twenty-three articles (24%) explicitly reported drug wastage amounts, whereas fifty-two articles (55%) considered the mitigation methods. Most articles focused on high-income countries (n=67), single hospital settings (n=45), and retrospective study designs (n=55). Wastage mitigation techniques included vial-sharing (n=21), dose-rounding (n=17), closed-system transfer device (n=9), centralized drug preparation (n=7), and vial size optimization (n=7). A trend towards higher median wastage cost was evident in US settings ($135.35/patient-month) compared to other countries ($37.71/patient-month)), while mitigation methods across countries were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: High cancer drug costs highlight the importance of minimizing drug wastage to reduce healthcare expenditure. Our review demonstrates that wastage varies by healthcare setting and mitigation technique. Future studies would benefit from reporting standards for cancer drug wastage that include reporting wastage (both in mg and cost, preferably in terms of Purchase Power Parity), as well as cohort size, considered vial sizes, considered dosages, and employed mitigation methods separately for each drug. This approach would account for variability in cancer drug wastage and help identify optimal mitigation practices tailored to the health system context.

Fracture risk among patients with cancer compared to individuals without cancer: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer may be at increased risk of osteoporosis and fracture; however, gaps exist in the existing literature and the association between cancer and fracture requires further examination. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of Ontario patients with cancer (breast, prostate, lung, gastrointestinal, haematologic) diagnosed between January 2007 to December 2018 and 1:1 matched non-cancer controls. The primary outcome was incident fracture (end of follow-up December 2019). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the relative fracture risk with sensitivity analysis accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: Among 172,963 cancer patients with non-cancer controls, 70.6% of patients with cancer were <65 years old, 58% were female, and 9375 and 8141 fracture events were observed in the cancer and non-cancer group, respectively (median follow-up 6.5 years). Compared to non-cancer controls, patients with cancer had higher risk of fracture (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.10, 95% CI 1.07-1.14, p < 0.0001), which was also observed for both solid (aHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, p < 0.0001) and haematologic cancers (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.31, p < 0.0001). Sensitivity analysis accounting for competing risk of death did not change these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that patients with cancer are at modest risk of fractures compared to non-cancer controls.

Outcomes of patients with indolent lymphoma treated with bendamustine plus rituximab compared to rituximab plus CVP or CHOP chemoimmunotherapy in Ontario.

Bendamustine (B) with rituximab (R) has become the preferred regimen for patients with indolent lymphoma in Ontario, Canada, compared to R with cyclophosphamide, vincristine, prednisone (CVP) or cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (CHOP). We conducted a propensity-matched retrospective cohort population-based study of patients treated with R-CVP/CHOP from 2005 to 2012 and patients treated with BR from 2013 to 2018. The primary outcome was 5-year overall survival (OS), and secondary outcomes included toxicities and healthcare utilization. The 5-year OS for patients treated with BR (n = 2023) and R-CVP/CHOP (n = 2023) was 80% and 75% respectively. Treatment with BR was associated with improved OS (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.69-0.91). During the first 9 months, patients treated with BR versus R-CVP/CHOP had a higher number of admissions for infection (22% compared to 17%, p < 0.01) and a higher number of mean ED visits (mean 1.01 ± 1.68 visits vs. 0.85 ± 1.51 visits, p < 0.01). This trend persisted for 3 years. The adjusted 5-year OS for patients 75 years and older did not differ based on treatment regimen (55.5% for BR vs. 55.4% for R-CVP/CHOP). Our study supports the use of BR for patients with indolent lymphoma requiring treatment but suggests increased risk of certain toxicities warranting careful patient selection.

Mismatch-repair deficiency, microsatellite instability, and lynch syndrome in ovarian cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Investigating for mismatch repair protein deficiency (MMRd), microsatellite instability (MSI), and Lynch syndrome (LS) is widely accepted in endometrial cancer, but knowledge is limited on its value in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). The primary objective was to evaluate the prevalence of mismatch repair protein deficiency (MMRd), microsatellite instability (MSI)-high, and Lynch syndrome (LS) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), as well as the diagnostic accuracy of LS screening tests. The secondary objective was to determine the prevalence of MMRd, MSI-high, and LS in synchronous ovarian endometrial cancer and in histological subtypes. METHODS: We systematically searched the MEDLINE, Epub Ahead of Print, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Embase databases. We included studies analysing MMR, MSI, and/or LS by sequencing. RESULTS: A total of 55 studies were included. The prevalence of MMRd, MSI-high, and LS in EOC was 6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 5-8%), 13% (95% CI 12-15%), and 2% (95% CI 1-3%) respectively. Hypermethylation was present in 76% of patients with MLH1 deficiency (95% CI 64-84%). The MMRd prevalence was highest in endometrioid (12%) followed by non-serous non-mucinous (9%) and lowest in serous (1%) histological subtypes. MSI-high prevalence was highest in endometrioid (12%) and non-serous non-mucinous (12%) and lowest in serous (9%) histological subtypes. Synchronous and endometrioid EOC had the highest prevalence of LS pathogenic variants at 7% and 3% respectively, with serous having lowest prevalence (1%). Synchronous ovarian and endometrial cancers had highest rates of MMRd (28%) and MSI-high (28%). Sensitivity was highest for IHC (91.1%) and IHC with MSI (92.8%), while specificity was highest for IHC with methylation (92.3%). CONCLUSION: MMRd and germline LS testing should be considered for non-serous non-mucinous EOC, particularly for endometrioid. PRECIS: The rates of mismatch repair deficiency, microsatellite instability high, and mismatch repair germline mutations are highest in endometrioid subtype and non-serous non-mucinous ovarian cancer. The rates are lowest in serous histologic subtype.

Machine Learning-Based Early Warning Systems for Acute Care Utilization During Systemic Therapy for Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department visits and hospitalizations frequently occur during systemic therapy for cancer. We developed and evaluated a longitudinal warning system for acute care use. METHODS: Using a retrospective population-based cohort of patients who started intravenous systemic therapy for nonhematologic cancers between July 1, 2014, and June 30, 2020, we randomly separated patients into cohorts for model training, hyperparameter tuning and model selection, and system testing. Predictive features included static features, such as demographics, cancer type, and treatment regimens, and dynamic features, such as patient-reported symptoms and laboratory values. The longitudinal warning system predicted the probability of acute care utilization within 30 days after each treatment session. Machine learning systems were developed in the training and tuning cohorts and evaluated in the testing cohort. Sensitivity analyses considered feature importance, other acute care endpoints, and performance within subgroups. RESULTS: The cohort included 105,129 patients who received 1,216,385 treatment sessions. Acute care followed 182,444 (15.0%) treatments within 30 days. The ensemble model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.742 (95% CI, 0.739-0.745) and was well calibrated in the test cohort. Important predictive features included prior acute care use, treatment regimen, and laboratory tests. If the system was set to alarm approximately once every 15 treatments, 25.5% of acute care events would be preceded by an alarm, and 47.4% of patients would experience acute care after an alarm. The system underestimated risk for some treatment regimens and potentially underserved populations such as females and non-English speakers. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning warning systems can detect patients at risk for acute care utilization, which can aid in preventive intervention and facilitate tailored treatment. Future research should address potential biases and prospectively evaluate impact after system deployment.

Power and sample size calculation for incremental net benefit in cost effectiveness analyses with applications to trials conducted by the Canadian Cancer Trials Group.

BACKGROUND: Historically, a priori power and sample size calculations have not been routinely performed cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA), partly because the absence of published cost and effectiveness correlation and variance data, which are essential for power and sample size calculations. Importantly, the empirical correlation between cost and effectiveness has not been examined with respect to the estimation of value-for-money in clinical literature. Therefore, it is not well established if cost-effectiveness studies embedded within randomized-controlled-trials (RCTs) are under- or over-powered to detect changes in value-for-money. However, recently guidelines (such as those from ISPOR) and funding agencies have suggested sample size and power calculations should be considered in CEAs embedded in clinical trials. METHODS: We examined all RCTs conducted by the Canadian Cancer Trials Group with an embedded cost-effectiveness analysis. Variance and correlation of effectiveness and costs were derived from original-trial data. The incremental net benefit method was used to calculate the power of the cost-effectiveness analysis, with exploration of alternative correlation and willingness-to-pay values. RESULTS: We identified four trials for inclusion. We observed that a hypothetical scenario of correlation coefficient of zero between cost and effectiveness led to a conservative estimate of sample size. The cost-effectiveness analysis was under-powered to detect changes in value-for-money in two trials, at willingness-to-pay of $100,000. Based on our observations, we present six considerations for future economic evaluations, and an online program to help analysts include a priori sample size and power calculations in future clinical trials. CONCLUSION: The correlation between cost and effectiveness had a potentially meaningful impact on the power and variance of value-for-money estimates in the examined cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, the six considerations and online program, may facilitate a priori power calculations in embedded cost-effectiveness analyses in future clinical trials.

Integration of real-world evidence from different data sources in health technology assessment.

Real-world evidence (RWE) is being increasingly used by a wide range of stakeholders involved in the therapeutic product lifecycle but remains underutilized in the health technology assessment (HTA) process. RWE aims to fill the current evidence gaps, reduce the uncertainty around the benefits of medical technologies, and better understand the long-term impact of health technologies in real-world conditions. Despite the minimal use of RWE in some elements of HTA, there has been a larger push to further utilize RWE in the HTA processes. HTA bodies, as other stakeholders, work towards developing more robust means to leverage RWE from various data sources in the HTA processes. However, these agencies need to overcome important challenges before the broader incorporation of RWE into their routine practice. This paper aims to explore the extensive integration of RWE utilizing diverse sources of RWD. We discuss the utilization of RWE in HTA processes, considering aspects such as when, where, and how RWE can be effectively applied. Additionally, we seek the potential challenges and barriers associated with the utilization of different data sources.

Stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy in patients with intracranial metastatic disease and small-cell lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) are at high risk for intracranial metastatic disease (IMD). Although stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) has supplanted whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) as first-line treatment for IMD in most solid cancers, WBRT remains first-line treatment for IMD in patients with SCLC. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of SRS in comparison with WBRT and assess treatment outcomes following SRS. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and grey literature sources for controlled trials and cohort studies published in English reporting on SRS for IMD treatment in patients with SCLC from inception to March 23, 2022. Studies were excluded that did not report on SRS for IMD secondary to SCLC. Summary data were extracted. The primary outcome was overall survival, presented as pooled hazard ratios (HR) through random-effects meta-analysis for studies comparing SRS with WBRT with or without SRS boost, and as medians for single-arm SRS studies. This study is registered with the Open Science Framework, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/8M4HC, and PROSPERO, CRD42021258197. FINDINGS: Of 3823 identified records, 31 were eligible for inclusion; seven were included in the meta-analysis. Overall survival following SRS was longer than following WBRT with or without SRS boost (HR 0·85; 95% CI 0·75-0·97; n=7 studies; n=18 130 patients), or WBRT alone (0·77; 0·72-0·83; n=7 studies; n=16 961 patients), but not WBRT plus SRS boost (1·17, 0·78-1·75; n=4 studies; n=1167 patients). Using single-arm studies, pooled median overall survival from SRS was 8·99 months (95% CI 7·86-10·16; n=14 studies; n=1682 patients). Between-study heterogeneity was considerable when pooled among all comparative studies (I2=71·9%). INTERPRETATION: These results suggest survival outcomes are equitable following treatment with SRS compared with WBRT in patients with SCLC and IMD. Future prospective studies should focus on tumour burden and differences in local and distant intracranial progression between WBRT-treated and SRS-treated patients with SCLC. FUNDING: None.

Quality of end-of-life care in multiple myeloma: A 13-year analysis of a population-based cohort in Ontario, Canada.

Optimizing end-of-life (EOL) care for multiple myeloma (MM) represents an unmet need. An administrative cohort in Ontario, Canada was analysed between 2006 and 2018. Aggressive care was defined as two or more emergency-department visits in the last 30 days before death, or at least two new hospitalizations within 30 days of death, or an intensive care unit (ICU) admission within the last 30 days of life. Supportive care was defined as a physician house-call in the last two weeks before death, or a palliative nursing or personal support visit at home in the last 30 days before death. Among 5095 patients, 23.2% of patients received chemotherapy at EOL and 55.6% of patients died as inpatient. A minority received aggressive care at EOL [28.3%: autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT), 20.4%: non-ASCT], and a majority received supportive care at EOL (65.4%: ASCT, 61.5%: non-ASCT). Supportive care was less likely to be received by those aged over 80 years and in lower-income neighbourhoods. Supportive care at EOL increased from 56.0% in 2006 to 70.3% in 2018. Despite improvements, many patients with MM experience aggressive care at EOL. Even in a publicly funded health care system, disparities based on age, income and community size are present.

Impact of body mass index on survival in women receiving chemotherapy for early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The impact of elevated body mass index (BMI) on overall survival (OS) in patients receiving modern anthracycline-taxane chemotherapy for early breast cancer (EBC) has not yet been well established. The purpose of our study was to examine overall survival (OS) by BMI category in women with EBC receiving either doxorubicin (A), cyclophosphamide (C) + paclitaxel (P) or fluorouracil (F), epirubicin (E), cyclophosphamide (C) + docetaxel (D). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study in patients ≥ 18 years with resected stage I-III BC diagnosed between 2007 and 2017 in Ontario, identified through linkage of administrative databases. Patients were classified according to baseline BMI into underweight (< 18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥ 30 kg/m2) World Health Organization (WHO) categories. The primary outcome was OS. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to examine the association between clinico-pathologic characteristics and OS among BMI categories. RESULTS: Our cohort included 11,601 women, of whom 3890 (33.5%) were normal weight, 3696 (31.9%) overweight, and 3847 (33.1%) obese. Median OS was 7.9 years. There were no statistically significant differences in OS according to BMI (p = 0.66) in the overall study cohort or among the BMI categories after adjusting for age, nodal status, stage, grade, ER and HER2 status for either AC-P or FEC-D- treated patients (p = 0.45 and p = 0.97, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our large population-based retrospective cohort analysis of EBC patients receiving adjuvant anthracycline-taxane chemotherapy found no significant impact of BMI on OS. Further investigation is warranted to confirm these findings in prospective patient cohorts.

Primary care utilization for patients with newly diagnosed cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic greatly impacted primary care and cancer care. We studied how primary care utilization in Ontario, Canada changed for patients who were newly diagnosed with cancer just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic compared to those diagnosed in non-pandemic years. METHODS: This population-based, retrospective cohort study used linked healthcare databases to compare outcomes for patients with a new malignancy diagnosed within the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, between July 1 and September 30, 2019 (COVID-19 cohort) to those diagnosed in the same months in 2018 and 2017 (pre-pandemic cohort). We used Poisson regression models to compare rates of in-person and virtual visits to patients' usual primary care physician (PCP), emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalizations, all reported per person-year of follow-up. RESULTS: In-person visits to usual PCPs decreased from 4.07/person-year in the pre-pandemic cohort to 2.58 in the COVID-19 cohort (p < 0.0001). Virtual visits to usual PCPs increased from 0.00 to 1.53 (p < 0.0001). Combined in-person and virtual visits to patients' usual PCPs was unchanged from 4.07 to 4.12 (p = 0.89). The rate of ED visits decreased from 0.99/person-year to 0.88 (p < 0.0001). Non-elective hospitalizations remained unchanged, from 0.49/person-year to 0.47 (p = 0.1675). CONCLUSION: There was a sizeable shift in primary care visits for cancer patients from in-person to virtual during the pandemic, although there was no resultant increase in hospitalizations. This suggests that early in the pandemic, virtual care allowed for continuity in utilization of primary care, though further studies are required to confirm this persisted later in the pandemic.

Trends in quality indicators of end-of-life care for women with gynecologic malignancies in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: A large body of research has validated several quality indicators of end-of-life (EOL) cancer care, but few have examined these in gynecologic cancer at a population-level. We examined patterns of EOL care quality in patients with gynecologic cancers across 13 years in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of gynecologic cancer decedents in Ontario from 2006 to 2018 using linked administrative health care databases. Proportions of quality indices were calculated, including: emergency department (ED) use, hospital or intensive care unit (ICU) admission, chemotherapy ≤14 days of death, cancer-related surgery, tube or intravenous feeds, palliative home visits, and hospital death. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine factors associated with receipt of aggressive and supportive care. RESULTS: There were 16,237 included decedents over the study period; hospital death rates decreased from 47% to 37%, supportive care use rose from 65% to 74%, and aggressive care remained stable (16%). Within 30 days of death, 50% were hospitalized, 5% admitted to ICU, and 67% accessed palliative homecare. Within 14 days of death, 31% visited the ED and 4% received chemotherapy. Patients with vulvovaginal cancers received the lowest rates of aggressive and supportive care. Using multivariable analyses, factors associated with increased aggressive EOL care use included younger age, shorter disease duration, lower income quintiles, and rural residence. CONCLUSIONS: Over time, less women dying with gynecologic cancers in Ontario experienced death in hospital, and more accessed supportive care. However, the majority were still hospitalized and a significant proportion received aggressive care in the final 30 days of life.

Incident Cancer Detection During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Resource restrictions were established in many jurisdictions to maintain health system capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Disrupted healthcare access likely impacted early cancer detection. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the pandemic on weekly reported cancer incidence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a population-based study involving individuals diagnosed with cancer from September 25, 2016, to September 26, 2020, in Ontario, Canada. Weekly cancer incidence counts were examined using segmented negative binomial regression models. The weekly estimated backlog during the pandemic was calculated by subtracting the observed volume from the projected/expected volume in that week. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 358,487 adult patients with cancer. At the start of the pandemic, there was an immediate 34.3% decline in the estimated mean cancer incidence volume (relative rate, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.57-0.75), followed by a 1% increase in cancer incidence volume in each subsequent week (relative rate, 1.009; 95% CI, 1.001-1.017). Similar trends were found for both screening and nonscreening cancers. The largest immediate declines were seen for melanoma and cervical, endocrinologic, and prostate cancers. For hepatobiliary and lung cancers, there continued to be a weekly decline in incidence during the COVID-19 period. Between March 15 and September 26, 2020, 12,601 fewer individuals were diagnosed with cancer, with an estimated weekly backlog of 450. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that there is a large volume of undetected cancer cases related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Incidence rates have not yet returned to prepandemic levels.

Incident Cancer Detection During Multiple Waves of COVID-19: The Tsunami After the Earthquake.

No population-based study exists to demonstrate the full-spectrum impact of COVID-19 on hindering incident cancer detection in a large cancer system. Building upon our previous publication in JNCCN, we conducted an updated analysis using 12 months of new data accrued in the pandemic era (extending the study period from September 26, 2020, to October 2, 2021) to demonstrate how multiple COVID-19 waves affected the weekly cancer incidence volume in Ontario, Canada, and if we have fully cleared the backlog at the end of each wave.

Evaluation of left atrial remodeling using cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant trastuzumab.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated left atrial (LA) remodeling using cardiac MRI (CMR) in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer during and after trastuzumab therapy. METHODS: In this prospective 2-center longitudinal study, 41 women with HER2-positive breast cancer received adjuvant trastuzumab for 12 months, in addition to standard chemotherapy. Serial CMRs were performed at baseline, 6, 12, and 18 months after initiation of trastuzumab. LA volumes were measured by a blinded reader. Linear mixed model was used to evaluate longitudinal changes. RESULTS: Of 41 women (mean age 52 ± 11 [SD] years; 56% received anthracycline), one patient experienced trastuzumab-induced cardiotoxicity (TIC) for which trastuzumab was interrupted for one cycle. Mean baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 68.0 ± 5.9% and LA ejection fraction (LAEF) was 66.0 ± 6.6%. Compared to baseline, LAEF decreased significantly at 6 months (62.7 ± 5.7%, p = 0.027) and 12 months (62.2 ± 6.1%, p = 0.003), while indexed LA minimum volume (LAmin) significantly increased at 12 months (11.6 ± 4.9 ml/m2 vs 13.8 ± 4.5 ml/m2, p = 0.002). At 18 months, all changes from baseline were no longer significant. From baseline to 6 months, change in LAEF correlated with change in LVEF (Spearman's r = 0.41, p = 0.014). No significant interactions (all p > 0.10) were detected between time and anthracycline use for LA parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Among trastuzumab-treated patients with low incidence of TIC, we observed a small but significant decline in LAEF and increase in LAmin that persisted for the duration of therapy and recovered 6 months after therapy cessation. These findings suggest that trastuzumab has concurrent detrimental effects on atrial and ventricular remodeling. KEY POINTS: • In trastuzumab-treated breast cancer patients evaluated by cardiac MRI, left atrial ejection fraction declined and minimum volume increased during treatment and recovered to baseline after trastuzumab cessation. • Changes in left atrial ejection fraction correlated with changes in left ventricular ejection fraction in the first 6 months of trastuzumab treatment. • Trastuzumab therapy is associated with concurrent detrimental effects on left atrial and ventricular remodeling.

Parametric Survival Extrapolation of Early Survival Data in Economic Analyses: A Comparison of Projected Versus Observed Updated Survival.

OBJECTIVES: To establish the value of cancer drugs by cost-effectiveness analysis, lifetime parametric survival extrapolations are often fitted to early data. Recent literature suggests that the benefit of cancer agents in primary publications is often different compared with updated data. This study aimed to examine the projected survival based on parametric extrapolations compared with observed survival based on updated data. METHODS: US Food and Drug Administration oncology approvals from January 2006 to December 2015 were reviewed to identify randomized controlled trials, with updated overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) data within 5 years. Individual patient data were reconstructed using established methods on initial and updated publications. Projected survival was calculated as the best-fit parametric restricted mean survival time (RMST) based on extrapolated initial Kaplan-Meier curves whereas observed survival was calculated as observed RMST based on updated Kaplan-Meier curves. Mean deviations, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error, and linear regressions were conducted to examine the relationship between projected and observed survival. RESULTS: In total, 32 randomized controlled trials were included. The MAE between the projected RMST and observed RMST was 3.18 months (OS) and 2.84 months (PFS) and absolute percentage error of 100% (OS) and 23% (PFS), suggesting substantial imprecision of the projected RMST in predicting the updated RMST. The linear regression indicated MAE increased as time extrapolated and as the percentage of censored patients increased. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated substantial difference in projected survival between initial and updated publications. Health technology assessment committees need to be aware of the potential uncertainty of incremental effectiveness and resultant value-for-money assessment when making reimbursement decisions based on initial publications with immature survival data.

Validating Restricted Mean Survival Time Estimates From Reconstructed Kaplan-Meier Data Against Original Trial Individual Patient Data From Trials Conducted by the Canadian Cancer Trials Group.

OBJECTIVES: The development of novel cancer therapies, including immuno-oncology agents, has increased interest in reconstructed individual patient data (IPD) based restricted mean survival time (RMST) analyses. Additionally, reconstructed IPD-based RMST is recommended in cost-effectiveness analyses when original trial IPD are not available. Nevertheless, recently concerns regarding potential bias of reconstructed-IPD RMST have been presented, because reconstructed-IPD RMSTs have not been validated and previous validation endpoints may not capture the entire Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve, especially the "tail." Our study aims to validate the recommended method of IPD reconstruction by comparing reconstructed IPD- and original trial IPD-based RMST. METHODS: Canadian Cancer Trials Group trials from 1990 to 2017 were included. Overall survival and progression-free survival IPD were reconstructed based on published KM curves using the Guyot method. Analysts were blinded to original trial IPD. RMST was calculated at 1 year and over the entire KM curve. Reconstructed-IPD and original trial-IPD (gold-standard) RMSTs were compared for accuracy and predictive error via mean deviation, mean absolute error (MAE), mean percentage bias, and Bland-Altman plots and across KM curve quality (vector traced or bitmapped). RESULTS: We identified 39 trials. The mean deviation, MAE, and mean percentage bias of RMST between the reconstructed IPD and original trial IPD were small. In particular, the mean deviation was -0.01 months and -0.04 months, MAE was 0.19 months and 0.24 months, and mean percentage bias was 0.82% and 0.84% in overall survival KM curves in control and experimental arms, respectively. Accuracy was generally not associated with KM curve quality. CONCLUSIONS: RMST derived from reconstructed IPD displayed excellent accuracy and predictive error compared with the gold standard. Reconstructed IPD could be used to calculate RMST in lieu of original trial IPD, to facilitate decision making for clinicians, researchers, and policy makers.

Impact of cancer surgery slowdowns on patient survival during the COVID-19 pandemic: a microsimulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: With the declaration of the global pandemic, surgical slowdowns were instituted to conserve health care resources for anticipated surges in patients with COVID-19. The long-term implications on survival of these slowdowns for patients with cancer in Canada is unknown. METHODS: We constructed a microsimulation model based on real-world population data on cancer care from Ontario, Canada, from 2019 and 2020. Our model estimated wait times for cancer surgery over a 6-month period during the pandemic by simulating a slowdown in operating room capacity (60% operating room resources in month 1, 70% in month 2, 85% in months 3-6), as compared with simulated prepandemic conditions with 100% resources. We used incremental differences in simulated wait times to model survival using per-day hazard ratios for risk of death. Primary outcomes included life-years lost per patient and per cancer population. We conducted scenario analyses to evaluate alternative, hypothetical scenarios of different levels of surgical slowdowns on risk of death. RESULTS: The simulated model population comprised 22 799 patients waiting for cancer surgery before the pandemic and 20 177 patients during the pandemic. Mean wait time to surgery prepandemic was 25 days and during the pandemic was 32 days. Excess wait time led to 0.01-0.07 life-years lost per patient across cancer sites, translating to 843 (95% credible interval 646-950) life-years lost among patients with cancer in Ontario. INTERPRETATION: Pandemic-related slowdowns of cancer surgeries were projected to result in decreased long-term survival for many patients with cancer. Measures to preserve surgical resources and health care capacity for affected patients are critical to mitigate unintended consequences.

Cancer treatment-related financial toxicity experienced by patients in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.

PURPOSE: In the past decade, literature has called attention to financial toxicities experienced by cancer patients. Though studies have addressed research questions in high-income countries, there remains a paucity of in-depth reviews regarding low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our scoping review provides an overview of treatment-related financial toxicities experienced by cancer patients in LMICs. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. English peer-reviewed articles that (a) explored patients' experience with financial toxicity due to cancer treatment (b) were specific to LMICs as defined by the World Bank and (c) focused on qualitative data were included. Details regarding participants and main findings were extracted and synthesized. RESULTS: The search yielded 6290 citations, and 42 studies across 3 low-income, 9 lower-middle-income and 8 upper-middle-income countries. Main themes identified included cancer patients encountered various material hardships, managed costs with different coping behaviours and experienced negative psychological responses to their financial burden. Higher levels of financial toxicities were associated with patient characteristics such as lower socio-economic status and lack of insurance, as well as patient outcomes such as lower quality of life. CONCLUSION: Cancer patients in LMIC experience deleterious financial toxicities as a result of treatment. This comprehensive characterization of financial toxicities will better allow health systems to adopt evidence-based mitigation strategies to reduce the financial burden on patients.