Epidemiology of common infectious diseases before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria, Germany, 2016 to 2021: an analysis of routine surveillance data.

BackgroundUnprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic also had an effect on other infectious diseases.AimWe aimed to determine their impact on transmission and diagnosis of notifiable diseases other than COVID-19 in Bavaria, Germany, in 2020 and 2021.MethodsWe compared weekly cases of 15 notifiable infectious diseases recorded in Bavaria between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2021 in time series analyses, median age and time-to-diagnosis using Wilcoxon rank sum test and hospitalisation rates using univariable logistic regression during three time periods: pre-pandemic (weeks 1 2016-9 2020), pandemic years 1 (weeks 10-52 2020) and 2 (2021).ResultsWeekly case numbers decreased in pandemic year 1 for all diseases assessed except influenza, Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis; markedly for norovirus gastroenteritis (IRR = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.12-0.20) and pertussis (IRR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.18-0.26). In pandemic year 2, influenza (IRR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.02-0.09) and pertussis (IRR = 0.11; 95% CI: 0.09-0.14) decreased markedly, but also chickenpox, dengue fever, Haemophilus influenzae invasive infection, hepatitis C, legionellosis, noro- and rotavirus gastroenteritis and salmonellosis. For enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli infections, median age decreased in pandemic years 1 and 2 (4 years, interquartile range (IQR): 1-32 and 3 years, IQR: 1-18 vs 11 years, IQR: 2-42); hospitalisation proportions increased in pandemic year 1 (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.08-2.34).ConclusionReductions for various infectious diseases and changes in case characteristics in 2020 and 2021 indicate reduced transmission of notifiable diseases other than COVID-19 due to interventions and under-detection.

Seasonality in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Germany 2004-2014- a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Seasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been found in different parts of the world, showing a peak in spring/summer and a trough in autumn/winter. The evidence is less clear which factors drive seasonality. It was our aim to identify and evaluate seasonality in the notifications of TB in Germany, additionally investigating the possible variance of seasonality by disease site, sex and age group. METHODS: We conducted an integer-valued time series analysis using national surveillance data. We analysed the reported monthly numbers of started treatments between 2004 and 2014 for all notified TB cases and stratified by disease site, sex and age group. RESULTS: We detected seasonality in the extra-pulmonary TB cases (N = 11,219), with peaks in late spring/summer and troughs in fall/winter. For all TB notifications together (N = 51,090) and for pulmonary TB only (N = 39,714) we did not find a distinct seasonality. Additional stratified analyses did not reveal any clear differences between age groups, the sexes, or between active and passive case finding. CONCLUSION: We found seasonality in extra-pulmonary TB only, indicating that seasonality of disease onset might be specific to the disease site. This could point towards differences in disease progression between the different clinical disease manifestations. Sex appears not to be an important driver of seasonality, whereas the role of age remains unclear as this could not be sufficiently investigated.