Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths.

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.

Excess Fatal Overdoses in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Geography and Substance Type: March 2020-August 2021.

Objectives. To assess heterogeneity in pandemic-period excess fatal overdoses in the United States, by location (state, county) and substance type. Methods. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to estimate counterfactual death counts in the scenario that no pandemic had occurred. Such estimates were subtracted from actual death counts to assess the magnitude of pandemic-period excess mortality between March 2020 and August 2021. Results. Nationwide, we estimated 25 668 (95% prediction interval [PI] = 2811, 48 524) excess overdose deaths. Specifically, 17 of 47 states and 197 of 592 counties analyzed had statistically significant excess overdose-related mortality. West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and New Mexico had the highest rates (20-37 per 100 000). Nationally, there were 5.7 (95% PI = 1.0, 10.4), 3.1 (95% PI = 2.1, 4.2), and 1.4 (95% PI = 0.5, 2.4) excess deaths per 100 000 involving synthetic opioids, psychostimulants, and alcohol, respectively. Conclusions. The steep increase in overdose-related mortality affected primarily the southern and western United States. We identified synthetic opioids and psychostimulants as the main contributors. Public Health Implications. Characterizing overdose-related excess mortality across locations and substance types is critical for optimal allocation of public health resources. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):599-609. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307618).

Association between social vulnerability and place of death during the first 2 years of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

We investigated the relationship between individual-level social vulnerability and place of death during the infectious disease emergency of the COVID-19 pandemic in Massachusetts. Our research represents a unique contribution by matching individual-level death certificates with COVID-19 test data to analyse differences in distributions of place of death.

Counterpoint: Preprints and the Future of Scientific Publishing-In Favor of Relevance.

Peer-reviewed journals provide an invaluable but inadequate vehicle for scientific communication. Preprints are now an essential complement to peer-reviewed publications. Eschewing preprints will slow scientific progress and reduce the public health impact of epidemiologic research. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted long-standing limitations of the peer-review process. Preprint servers, such as bioRxiv and medRxiv, served as crucial venues to rapidly disseminate research and provide detailed backup to sound-bite science that is often communicated through the popular press or social media. The major criticisms of preprints arise from an unjustified optimism about peer review. Peer review provides highly imperfect sorting and curation of research and only modest improvements in research conduct or presentation for most individual papers. The advantages of peer review come at the expense of months to years of delay in sharing research methods or results. For time-sensitive evidence, these delays can lead to important missteps and ill-advised policies. Even with research that is not intrinsically urgent, preprints expedite debate, expand engagement, and accelerate progress. The risk that poor-quality papers will have undue influence because they are posted on a preprint server is low. If epidemiology aims to deliver evidence relevant for public health, we need to embrace strategic uses of preprint servers.

Examining Excess Mortality Among Critical Workers in Minnesota During 2020-2021: An Occupational Analysis.

Objectives. To understand the occupational risk associated with COVID-19 among civilian critical workers (aged 16-65 years) in Minnesota. Methods. We estimated excess mortality in 2020 to 2021 for critical occupations in different racial groups and vaccine rollout phases using death certificates and occupational employment rates for 2017 to 2021. Results. Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was higher for workers in critical occupations than for noncritical workers. Some critical occupations, such as transportation and logistics, construction, and food service, experienced higher excess mortality than did other critical occupations, such as health care, K-12 school staff, and agriculture. In almost all occupations investigated, workers of color experienced higher excess mortality than did White workers. Excess mortality in 2021 was greater than in 2020 across groups: occupations, vaccine eligibility tiers, and race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Although workers in critical occupations experienced greater excess mortality than did others, excess mortality among critical workers varied substantially by occupation and race. Public Health Implications. Analysis of mortality across occupations can be used to identify vulnerable populations, prioritize protective interventions for them, and develop targeted worker safety protocols to promote equitable health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(11):1219-1222. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307395).

HIV Testing and Treatment with the Use of a Community Health Approach in Rural Africa.

BACKGROUND: Universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) with annual population testing and a multidisease, patient-centered strategy could reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and improve community health. METHODS: We randomly assigned 32 rural communities in Uganda and Kenya to baseline HIV and multidisease testing and national guideline-restricted ART (control group) or to baseline testing plus annual testing, eligibility for universal ART, and patient-centered care (intervention group). The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of HIV infection at 3 years. Secondary end points included viral suppression, death, tuberculosis, hypertension control, and the change in the annual incidence of HIV infection (which was evaluated in the intervention group only). RESULTS: A total of 150,395 persons were included in the analyses. Population-level viral suppression among 15,399 HIV-infected persons was 42% at baseline and was higher in the intervention group than in the control group at 3 years (79% vs. 68%; relative prevalence, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.20). The annual incidence of HIV infection in the intervention group decreased by 32% over 3 years (from 0.43 to 0.31 cases per 100 person-years; relative rate, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.84). However, the 3-year cumulative incidence (704 incident HIV infections) did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (0.77% and 0.81%, respectively; relative risk, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.17). Among HIV-infected persons, the risk of death by year 3 was 3% in the intervention group and 4% in the control group (0.99 vs. 1.29 deaths per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.93). The risk of HIV-associated tuberculosis or death by year 3 among HIV-infected persons was 4% in the intervention group and 5% in the control group (1.19 vs. 1.50 events per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.94). At 3 years, 47% of adults with hypertension in the intervention group and 37% in the control group had hypertension control (relative prevalence, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Universal HIV treatment did not result in a significantly lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care, probably owing to the availability of comprehensive baseline HIV testing and the rapid expansion of ART eligibility in the control group. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; SEARCH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01864603.).

SEARCH Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Streamlined Treatment Intervention Reduces Mortality at a Population Level in Men With Low CD4 Counts.

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that patient-centered, streamlined human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care would achieve lower mortality than the standard treatment model for persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL in the setting of population-wide HIV testing. METHODS: In the SEARCH (Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health) Study (NCT01864603), 32 communities in rural Uganda and Kenya were randomized to country-guided antiretroviral therapy (ART) versus streamlined ART care that included rapid ART start, visit spacing, flexible clinic hours, and welcoming environment. We assessed persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL, ART eligible in both arms, and estimated the effect of streamlined care on ART initiation and mortality at 3 years. Comparisons between study arms used a cluster-level analysis with survival estimates from Kaplan-Meier; estimates of ART start among ART-naive persons treated death as a competing risk. RESULTS: Among 13 266 adults with HIV, 2973 (22.4%) had CD4 ≤ 350/uL. Of these, 33% were new diagnoses, and 10% were diagnosed but ART-naive. Men with HIV were almost twice as likely as women with HIV to have CD4 ≤ 350/uL and be untreated (15% vs 8%, respectively). Streamlined care reduced mortality by 28% versus control (risk ratio [RR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .56, .93; P = .02). Despite eligibility in both arms, persons with CD4 ≤ 350/uL started ART faster under streamlined care versus control (76% vs 43% by 12 months, respectively; P < .001). Mortality was reduced substantially more among men (RR = 0.61; 95% CI: .43, .86; P = .01) than among women (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: .62, 1.32; P = .58). CONCLUSIONS: After population-based HIV testing, streamlined care reduced population-level mortality among persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL, particularly among men. Streamlined HIV care models may play a key role in global efforts to reduce AIDS deaths.

Sheltering in Place and the Likelihood of Nonnatural Death.

Increasing hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the United States and elsewhere have ignited debate over whether to reinstate shelter-in-place policies adopted early in the pandemic to slow the spread of infection. The debate includes claims that sheltering in place influences deaths unrelated to infection or other natural causes. Testing this claim should improve the benefit/cost accounting that informs choice on reimposing sheltering in place. We used time-series methods to compare weekly nonnatural deaths in California with those in Florida. California was the first state to begin, and among the last to end, sheltering in place, while sheltering began later and ended earlier in Florida. During weeks when California had shelter-in-place orders in effect, but Florida did not, the odds that a nonnatural death occurred in California rather than Florida were 14.4% below expected levels. Sheltering-in-place policies likely reduce mortality from mechanisms unrelated to infection or other natural causes of death.

Increases in HIV status disclosure and sexual communication between South African men who have sex with men and their partners following use of HIV self-testing kits.

Availability of HIV self-testing may increase HIV testing frequency among men who have sex with men (MSM). It is unclear, however, if self-testing may impact HIV-related sexual behaviors among MSM, including HIV status disclosure and condom use. We conducted a mixed methods analysis of changes in HIV-related behaviors after HIV self-testing introduction, using data from 110 MSM participating in a feasibility and acceptability study of HIV self-testing in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We found increased HIV status disclosure from study participants to sexual partners after HIV self-testing introduction, from 61.8% at baseline to 75.5% at 6-month follow-up (p = 0.04), but decreased condom use with female partners (p = 0.03). Qualitative interviews reveal that some participants used test results to inform condom use. Distribution of self-testing kits can improve mutual disclosure, but should be accompanied by information stressing that the tests may not detect early HIV infections or other sexually transmitted infections.

Predictors of postpartum family planning in Rwanda: the influence of male involvement and healthcare experience.

BACKGROUND: Strengthened efforts in postpartum family planning (PPFP) is a key priority to accelerate progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health outcomes. This secondary data analysis explores factors associated with PPFP uptake in Rwanda. The purpose of this study was to explore variables that may influence PPFP use for postpartum women in Rwanda including health facility type, respectful maternity care, locus of control, and mental health status. METHODS: This secondary analysis of data from a cluster randomized control trial used information abstracted from questionnaires administered to women (≥ 15 years of age) at two time points-one during pregnancy (baseline) and one after delivery of the baby (follow-up). The dependent variable, PPFP uptake, was evaluated against the independent variables: respectful care, locus of control, and mental health status. These data were abstracted from linked questionnaires completed from January 2017 to February 2019. The sample size provided 97% power to detect a change at a 95% significance level with a sample size of 640 at a 15% effect size. Chi-square testing was applied for the bivariate analyses. A logistic regression model using the generalized linear model function was performed; odds ratio and adjusted (by age group and education group) odds ratio with 95% confidence interval were reported. RESULTS: Of the 646 respondents, although 92% reported not wanting another pregnancy within the next year, 72% used PPFP. Antenatal care wait time (p = < 0.01; Adj OR (Adj 95% CI) 21-40 min: 2.35 (1.46,3.79); 41-60 min: 1.50 (0.84,2.69); 61-450 min: 5.42 (2.86,10.75) and reporting joint healthcare decision-making between the woman and her partner (male) (p = 0.04; Adj OR (Adj 95% CI) husband/partner: 0.59 (0.35,0.97); mother and partner jointly: 1.06 (0.66,1.72) were associated with PPFP uptake. CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate that partner (male) involvement and improved quality of maternal health services may improve PPFP utilization in Rwanda.

Will We Get to Zero HIV Stigma in San Francisco?

Cities worldwide are striving to get to zero HIV stigma as a condition to get to zero new infections. We tracked an indicator of perceived HIV stigma across surveys of men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco from 2011 to 2017. Little improvement in perceived HIV stigma was observed, from 22.3% (95% CI 18.7-26.3) of MSM agreeing with the statement "Most people would discriminate against someone with HIV" in 2011 to 21.0% (95% CI 17.5-24.9) in 2017 (χ2 test for trend 0.252, p = 0.616). Success in ending the epidemic may flag without addressing the causes of HIV stigma.

Increases in Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Use and Decreases in Condom Use: Behavioral Patterns Among HIV-Negative San Francisco Men Who have Sex with Men, 2004-2017.

Using data from the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance of men who have sex with men (MSM), we estimated the prevalence of sexual behaviors among HIV-negative San Francisco MSM between 2004 and 2017. We estimate a recent increase in the 1-year prevalence of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, from 9.8% in 2014 to 44.9% in 2017. Over that same period, we estimate a decrease in the prevalence of consistent condom use, from 18.5 to 9.4%, and an increase in the percent of individuals with multiple condomless anal intercourse partners. We conclude that while risks for HIV infection may be decreasing among San Francisco MSM due, in part, to increases in PrEP use, the population faces increased risks for other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Because PrEP alone does not protect against other STIs, we strongly recommend that PrEP users use condoms when possible, routinely screen for STIs, and disclose infections with sexual partners.

Community Levels of PrEP Use Among Men Who Have Sex with Men by Race/Ethnicity, San Francisco, 2017.

Efforts in San Francisco are maximizing the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) where high levels of use are needed to maximize reducing new HIV infections. National HIV Behavioral Surveillance surveys MSM in San Francisco. Demographics, health care and risk behaviors are assessed. PrEP use is measured for 12 month, 6 month and 30 day periods. Of 399 HIV uninfected men sampled in 2017, 43.4% used PrEP in the past 12 months. Proportions of men using PrEP by race/ethnicity were not significant at any time point. Decreases between 6 month and 30 day use were highest among African American and Latino men. These men had the highest proportion of intermittent use in the past 30 days but not significantly. While our data suggest the disparity in PrEP use by race/ethnicity has narrowed in San Francisco, novel delivery of PrEP may narrow disparity further.

"Starfish Sampling": a Novel, Hybrid Approach to Recruiting Hidden Populations.

We sought to leverage the strengths of time location sampling (TLS) and respondent-driven sampling (RDS) for surveys of hidden populations by combing elements of both methods in a new approach we call "starfish sampling." Starfish sampling entails random selection of venue-day-time units from a mapping of the locations where the population can be found, combined with short chains of peer referrals from their social networks at the venue or presenting to the study site later. Using the population of transmen in San Francisco as a case example, we recruited 122 eligible participants using starfish sampling: 79 at randomly selected venues, 11 on dating applications, and 32 by referral. Starfish sampling produced one of the largest community-recruited samples specifically for transmen to date. Starfish sampling is a flexibility method to recruit and sample hidden populations for whom conventional TLS and RDS may not work in theory or practice.

Prevalence and characteristics of users of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, San Francisco, 2014 in a cross-sectional survey: implications for disparities.

OBJECTIVES: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has gained a central role in prevention of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM), particularly in San Francisco, California, USA. Programmes to enrol men in PrEP are being undertaken by a range of public and private organisations. PrEP will have the largest population impact if it reaches men who are most at risk for HIV infection, and is used in a manner that enables maximal efficacy. Access to PrEP also needs to be equitable. We report on the characteristics of men eligible for and using PrEP. METHODS: Data were from the 2014 implementation of National HIV Behavioural Surveillance (NHBS) among MSM in San Francisco. NHBS uses venue-based sampling as the national standard for sampling MSM. We compare proportions of demographic characteristics of MSM using versus not using PrEP who are HIV-negative and meet Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines to recommend PrEP. RESULTS: Overall, 64.1% of HIV-negative MSM in San Francisco would meet guidelines for PrEP use, while 9.2% of MSM overall and 14.5% of MSM eligible were using PrEP as of 2014. Men using PrEP are more likely to be white and of older age. There were no differences between men using and not using PrEP in terms of education, income and health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP roll-out efforts should attempt to increase reach for young, black and Hispanic MSM. Failure to equitably provide access to PrEP could exacerbate the US disparity in new HIV infections for men of colour.

Condomless Anal Sex Among HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men: Biomedical Context Matters.

Data from Medical Monitoring Project was used to determine if partner type is associated with condomless anal sex (CAS) and insertive condomless anal sex (ICAS) among HIV-positive men who have sex with men. Participants reported HIV status and PrEP use of up to five anal sex partners. Partner type was categorized as HIV-positive, HIV status unknown, HIV-negative on PrEP or HIV-negative not on PrEP. To account for correlation of multiple observations per participant, generalized estimating equations were used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals of CAS and ICAS. Condom use during anal sex and insertive anal sex varied based on partner type. There was a higher prevalence of CAS and ICAS in partnerships with HIV-positive partners or HIV-negative partners on PrEP compared to HIV-negative partners not on PrEP.

Associations between depressive syndromes and HIV risk behaviors among San Francisco men who have sex with men.

HIV prevention plans for men who have sex with men (MSM) are often multifaceted. They involve reduction of sexual risk behaviors, such as condomless intercourse, but also often include pharmaceutical approaches, such as early treatment of HIV-infected individuals with antiretroviral therapy (ART). Effectiveness is possibly threatened by individual-level factors, such as depression. In this study of 322 San Francisco MSM (240 HIV-uninfected individuals and 82 HIV-infected individuals, according to self-report), we examine associations between depressive syndromes and HIV risk behaviors (sexual risk behaviors and ART non-adherence). Our study failed to find evidence that depressive syndromes lead to increases in ART non-adherence (risk difference, RD: 27.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: -3.5, 59.3). However, the study does suggest an association between depressive syndromes and concurrence of non-adherence and potentially HIV-discordant condomless receptive anal intercourse (RD: 36.0; 95% CI: 5.2, 66.8). Among HIV-uninfected MSM, our study suggests negative associations between depressive syndromes and sexual risk behaviors. We recommend screening and treatment of depression among HIV-infected MSM.