Predicting the risk of mortality during hospitalization in sick severely malnourished children using daily evaluation of key clinical warning signs.

BACKGROUND: Despite adherence to WHO guidelines, inpatient mortality among sick children admitted to hospital with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains unacceptably high. Several studies have examined risk factors present at admission for mortality. However, risks may evolve during admission with medical and nutritional treatment or deterioration. Currently, no specific guidance exists for assessing daily treatment response. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of monitoring clinical signs on a daily basis for assessing mortality risk during hospitalization in children with SAM. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial (NCT02246296) among 843 hospitalized children with SAM. Daily clinical signs were prospectively collected during ward rounds. Multivariable extended Cox regression using backward feature selection was performed to identify daily clinical warning signs (CWS) associated with time to death within the first 21 days of hospitalization. Predictive models were subsequently developed, and their prognostic performance evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: Inpatient case fatality ratio was 16.3% (n=127). The presence of the following CWS during daily assessment were found to be independent predictors of inpatient mortality: symptomatic hypoglycemia, reduced consciousness, chest indrawing, not able to complete feeds, nutritional edema, diarrhea, and fever. Daily risk scores computed using these 7 CWS together with MUAC<10.5cm at admission as additional CWS predict survival outcome of children with SAM with a C-index of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.86). Moreover, counting signs among the top 5 CWS (reduced consciousness, symptomatic hypoglycemia, chest indrawing, not able to complete foods, and MUAC<10.5cm) provided a simpler tool with similar prognostic performance (C-index of 0.79; 95% CI 0.74-0.84). Having 1 or 2 of these CWS on any day during hospitalization was associated with a 3 or 11-fold increased mortality risk compared with no signs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for structured monitoring of daily CWS as recommended clinical practice as it improves prediction of inpatient mortality among sick children with complicated SAM. We propose a simple counting-tool to guide healthcare workers to assess treatment response for these children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02246296.

A reduced-carbohydrate and lactose-free formulation for stabilization among hospitalized children with severe acute malnutrition: A double-blind, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Children with medically complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have high risk of inpatient mortality. Diarrhea, carbohydrate malabsorption, and refeeding syndrome may contribute to early mortality and delayed recovery. We tested the hypothesis that a lactose-free, low-carbohydrate F75 milk would serve to limit these risks, thereby reducing the number of days in the stabilization phase. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a multicenter double-blind trial, hospitalized severely malnourished children were randomized to receive standard formula (F75) or isocaloric modified F75 (mF75) without lactose and with reduced carbohydrate. The primary endpoint was time to stabilization, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), with intention-to-treat analysis. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality, diarrhea, and biochemical features of malabsorption and refeeding syndrome. The trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02246296). Four hundred eighteen and 425 severely malnourished children were randomized to F75 and mF75, respectively, with 516 (61%) enrolled in Kenya and 327 (39%) in Malawi. Children with a median age of 16 months were enrolled between 4 December 2014 and 24 December 2015. One hundred ninety-four (46%) children assigned to F75 and 188 (44%) to mF75 had diarrhea at admission. Median time to stabilization was 3 days (IQR 2-5 days), which was similar between randomized groups (0.23 [95% CI -0.13 to 0.60], P = 0.59). There was no evidence of effect modification by diarrhea at admission, age, edema, or HIV status. Thirty-six and 39 children died before stabilization in the F75 and in mF75 arm, respectively (P = 0.84). Cumulative days with diarrhea (P = 0.27), enteral (P = 0.42) or intravenous fluids (P = 0.19), other serious adverse events before stabilization, and serum and stool biochemistry at day 3 did not differ between groups. The main limitation was that the primary outcome of clinical stabilization was based on WHO guidelines, comprising clinical evidence of recovery from acute illness as well as metabolic stabilization evidenced by recovery of appetite. CONCLUSIONS: Empirically treating hospitalized severely malnourished children during the stabilization phase with lactose-free, reduced-carbohydrate milk formula did not improve clinical outcomes. The biochemical analyses suggest that the lactose-free formulae may still exceed a carbohydrate load threshold for intestinal absorption, which may limit their usefulness in the context of complicated SAM. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02246296.

Brain MRI and cognitive function seven years after surviving an episode of severe acute malnutrition in a cohort of Malawian children.

OBJECTIVE: To assess differences in cognition functions and gross brain structure in children seven years after an episode of severe acute malnutrition (SAM), compared with other Malawian children. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort assessing school grade achieved and results of five computer-based (CANTAB) tests, covering three cognitive domains. A subset underwent brain MRI scans which were reviewed using a standardized checklist of gross abnormalities and compared with a reference population of Malawian children. SETTING: Blantyre, Malawi.ParticipantsChildren discharged from SAM treatment in 2006 and 2007 (n 320; median age 9·3 years) were compared with controls: siblings closest in age to the SAM survivors and age/sex-matched community children. RESULTS: SAM survivors were significantly more likely to be in a lower grade at school than controls (adjusted OR = 0·4; 95 % CI 0·3, 0·6; P < 0·0001) and had consistently poorer scores in all CANTAB cognitive tests. Adjusting for HIV and socio-economic status diminished statistically significant differences. There were no significant differences in odds of brain abnormalities and sinusitis between SAM survivors (n 49) and reference children (OR = 1·11; 95 % CI 0·61, 2·03; P = 0·73). CONCLUSIONS: Despite apparent preservation in gross brain structure, persistent impaired school achievement is likely to be detrimental to individual attainment and economic well-being. Understanding the multifactorial causes of lower school achievement is therefore needed to design interventions for SAM survivors to thrive in adulthood. The cognitive and potential economic implications of SAM need further emphasis to better advocate for SAM prevention and early treatment.

Long-term effects of severe acute malnutrition on lung function in Malawian children: a cohort study.

Early nutritional insults may increase risk of adult lung disease. We aimed to quantify the impact of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) on spirometric outcomes 7 years post-treatment and explore predictors of impaired lung function.Spirometry and pulse oximetry were assessed in 237 Malawian children (median age: 9.3 years) who had been treated for SAM and compared with sibling and age/sex-matched community controls. Spirometry results were expressed as z-scores based on Global Lung Function Initiative reference data for the African-American population.Forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were low in all groups (mean FEV1 z-score: -0.47 for cases, -0.48 for siblings, -0.34 for community controls; mean FVC z-score: -0.32, -0.38, and -0.15 respectively). There were no differences in spirometric or oximetry outcomes between SAM survivors and controls. Leg length was shorter in SAM survivors but inter-group sitting heights were similar. HIV positive status or female sex was associated with poorer FEV1, by 0.55 and 0.31 z-scores, respectively.SAM in early childhood was not associated with subsequent reduced lung function compared to local controls. Preservation of sitting height and compromised leg length suggest "thrifty" or "lung-sparing" growth. Female sex and HIV positive status were identified as potentially high-risk groups.

Childhood growth during recovery from acute illness in Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the childhood acute illness and nutrition (CHAIN) prospective cohort.

Background: Growth faltering is well-recognized during acute childhood illness and growth acceleration during convalescence, with or without nutritional therapy, may occur. However, there are limited recent data on growth after hospitalization in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We evaluated growth following hospitalization among children aged 2-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Between November 2016 and January 2019, children were recruited at hospital admission and classified as: not-wasted (NW), moderately-wasted (MW), severely-wasted (SW), or having nutritional oedema (NO). We describe earlier (discharge to 45-days) and later (45- to 180-days) changes in length-for-age [LAZ], weight-for-age [WAZ], mid-upper arm circumference [MUACZ], weight-for-length [WLZ] z-scores, and clinical, nutritional, and socioeconomic correlates. Findings: We included 2472 children who survived to 180-days post-discharge: NW, 960 (39%); MW, 572 (23%); SW, 682 (28%); and NO, 258 (10%). During 180-days, LAZ decreased in NW (-0.27 [-0.36, -0.19]) and MW (-0.23 [-0.34, -0.11]). However, all groups increased WAZ (NW, 0.21 [95% CI: 0.11, 0.32]; MW, 0.57 [0.44, 0.71]; SW, 1.0 [0.88, 1.1] and NO, 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]) with greatest gains in the first 45-days. Of children underweight (<-2 WAZ) at discharge, 66% remained underweight at 180-days. Lower WAZ post-discharge was associated with age-inappropriate nutrition, adverse caregiver characteristics, small size at birth, severe or moderate anaemia, and chronic conditions, while lower LAZ was additionally associated with household-level exposures but not with chronic medical conditions. Interpretation: Underweight and poor linear growth mostly persisted after an acute illness. Beyond short-term nutritional supplementation, improving linear growth post-discharge may require broader individual and family support. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationOPP1131320; National Institute for Health ResearchNIHR201813.

Intestinal disturbances associated with mortality of children with complicated severe malnutrition.

BACKGROUND: Children admitted to hospital with complicated severe malnutrition (CSM) have high mortality despite compliance with standard WHO management guidelines. Limited data suggests a relationship between intestinal dysfunction and poor prognosis in CSM, but this has not been explicitly studied. This study aimed to evaluate the role of intestinal disturbances in CSM mortality. METHODS: A case-control study nested within a randomized control trial was conducted among children hospitalized with CSM in Kenya and Malawi. Children who died (cases, n = 68) were compared with those who were discharged, propensity matched to the cases on age, HIV and nutritional status (controls, n = 68) on fecal metabolomics that targeted about 70 commonly measured metabolites, and enteropathy markers: fecal myeloperoxidase (MPO), fecal calprotectin, and circulating intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP). RESULTS: The fecal metabolomes of cases show specific reductions in amino acids, monosaccharides, and microbial fermentation products, when compared to controls. SCFA levels did not differ between groups. The overall fecal metabolomics signature moderately differentiates cases from controls (AUC = 0.72). Enteropathy markers do not differ between groups overall, although serum I-FABP is elevated in cases in a sensitivity analysis among non-edematous children. Integrative analysis with systemic data suggests an indirect role of intestinal inflammation in the causal path of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Intestinal disturbances appear to have an indirect association with acute mortality. Findings of the study improve our understanding of pathophysiological pathways underlying mortality of children with CSM.

Malnourished children are at a high risk of dying when exposed to an acute illness. They often have symptoms like diarrhea that indicate their gut is not working properly. It is unclear whether these gut problems contribute to their deaths. Feces contain numerous small molecules processed by the gut that reflect gut health. We compare these fecal molecules between malnourished children who died during hospitalization to those who survived, and relate them to signs of inflammation in the body. We show that the fecal molecules are different between children who died and those who survived. These differences reveal that poor gut health could increase risk of death, potentially by perturbing the body's defensive response to an acute illness. These findings underscore that treatment for ill severely malnourished children should focus on improving gut health.

Systemic inflammation and metabolic disturbances underlie inpatient mortality among ill children with severe malnutrition.

Children admitted to hospital with an acute illness and concurrent severe malnutrition [complicated severe malnutrition (CSM)] have a high risk of dying. The biological processes underlying their mortality are poorly understood. In this case-control study nested within a multicenter randomized controlled trial among children with CSM in Kenya and Malawi, we found that blood metabolomic and proteomic profiles robustly differentiated children who died (n = 92) from those who survived (n = 92). Fatalities were characterized by increased energetic substrates (tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites), microbial metabolites (e.g., propionate and isobutyrate), acute phase proteins (e.g., calprotectin and C-reactive protein), and inflammatory markers (e.g., interleukin-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α). These perturbations indicated disruptions in mitochondria-related bioenergetic pathways and sepsis-like responses. This study identified specific biomolecular disturbances associated with CSM mortality, revealing that systemic inflammation and bioenergetic deficits are targetable pathophysiological processes for improving survival of this vulnerable population.

The clinical use of longitudinal bio-electrical impedance vector analysis in assessing stabilization of children with severe acute malnutrition.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) in children is determined using anthropometry. However, bio-electrical impedance (BI) analysis could improve the estimation of altered body composition linked to edema and/or loss of lean body mass in children with SAM. We aimed to assess: 1) the changes in BI parameters during clinical stabilization and 2) whether BI parameters add prognostic value for clinical outcome beyond the use of anthropometry. METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled children, aged 6-60 months, that were admitted at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi, for complicated SAM (i.e., having either severe wasting or edematous SAM with a complicating illness). Height, weight, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), and BI were measured on admission and after clinical stabilization. BI measures were derived from height-adjusted indices of resistance (R/H), reactance (Xc/H), and phase angle (PA) and considered to reflect body fluids and soft tissue in BI vector analysis (BIVA). RESULTS: We studied 183 children with SAM (55% edematous; age 23.0 ± 12.0 months; 54% male) and 42 community participants (age 20.1 ± 12.3 months; male 62%). Compared to community participants, the BIVA of children with edematous SAM were short with low PA and positioned low on the hydration axis which reflects severe fluid retention. In contrast, children with severe wasting had elongated vectors with a PA that was higher than children with edematous SAM but lower than community participants. Their BIVA position fell within the top right quadrant linked to leanness and dehydration. BIVA from severely wasted and edematous SAM patients differed between groups and from community children both at admission and after stabilization (p < 0.001). Vector position shifted during treatment only in children with edematous SAM (p < 0.001) and showed a upward translation suggestive of fluid loss. While PA was lower in children with SAM, PA did not contribute more than anthropometry alone towards explaining mortality, length of stay, or time-to-discharge or time-to-mortality. The variability and heterogeneity in BI measures was high and their overall added predictive value for prognosis of individual children was low. CONCLUSIONS: BIVA did not add prognostic value over using anthropometry alone to predict clinical outcome. Several implementation challenges need to be optimized. Thus, in low-resource settings, the routine use of BI in the management of pediatric malnutrition is questionable without improved implementation.

Long-term outcomes for children with disability and severe acute malnutrition in Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and disability are major global health issues. Although they can cause and influence each other, data on their co-existence are sparse. We aimed to describe the prevalence and patterns of disability among a cohort of children with SAM. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study in Malawi followed SAM survivors up to 7 years postdischarge. Clinical and anthropometric profiles were compared with sibling and community controls. Disability at original admission was identified clinically; at 7-year follow-up a standardised screening tool called 'the Washington Group Questionnaire' was used. RESULTS: 60/938 (6.4%) of admissions to SAM treatment had clinically obvious disability at admission. Post-treatment mortality was high, with only 11/60 (18%) surviving till 7-year follow-up. SAM children with a disability at admission had 6.99 (95% CI 3.49 to 14.02; p<0.001) greater risk of dying compared with children without disability. They were also older, less likely to be HIV positive or have oedema and more severely malnourished. Long-term survivors were more stunted, had less catch-up growth, smaller head circumference, weaker hand grip strength and poorer school achievement than non-disabled survivors.The Washington Group Questionnaire confirmed disability in all who had been identified clinically, and identified many who had not been previously flagged. CONCLUSION: Disability is common among children affected by SAM. Those with disability-associated SAM have greatly increased risk of dying even if they survive the initial episode of malnutrition. Survivors have poorer growth, physical strength and school achievement. To enable all children to survive and thrive post-SAM, it is vital to focus more on those with disabilities. SAM treatment programmes should consider using not just clinical assessment but structured assessments to better identify at-risk individuals as well as understand the population of children for which they are developing services.

Childhood Malnutrition and Association of Lean Mass with Metabolome and Hormone Profile in Later Life.

This study aimed to determine the associations of targeted metabolomics and hormone profiles data with lean mass index (LMI), which were estimated using bioelectrical impedance, in survivors of child severe malnutrition (SM) (n = 69) and controls (n = 77) in Malawi 7 years after being treated. Linear associations between individual metabolite or hormone and LMI were determined, including their interaction with nutrition status 7 years prior. Path analysis was performed to determine structural associations. Lastly, predictive models for LMI were developed using the metabolome and hormone profile by elastic net regularized regression (EN). Metabolites including several lipids, amino acids, and hormones were individually associated (p < 0.05 after false discovery rate correction) with LMI. However, plasma FGF21 (Control: ß = -0.02, p = 0.59; Case: ß = -0.14, p < 0.001) and tryptophan (Control: ß = 0.15, p = 0.26; Case: ß = 0.70, p < 0.001) were associated with LMI among cases but not among controls (both interaction p-values < 0.01). Moreover, path analysis revealed that tryptophan mediates the association between child SM and LMI. EN revealed that most predictors of LMI differed between groups, further indicating altered metabolic mechanisms driving lean mass accretion among SM survivors later in life.

Metabolomics in plasma of Malawian children 7 years after surviving severe acute malnutrition: "ChroSAM" a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: More children are now surviving severe acute malnutrition (SAM), but evidence suggests that early-life malnutrition is associated with increased risk of long-term cardio-metabolic disorders. To better understand potential mechanisms, we studied the metabolite profiles of children seven years after treatment for SAM. METHODS: We followed-up children (n = 352) treated for SAM in 2006-2007, at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, in Malawi. Using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, tandem mass spectrometry and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we measured circulating metabolites in fasting blood in a subset of SAM survivors (n = 69, 9·6 ±â€¯1·6 years), siblings (n = 44, 10·5 ±â€¯2·7 years), and age and sex-matched community controls (n = 37, 9·4 ±â€¯1·8 years). Data were analysed using univariate and sparse partial least square (sPLS) methods. Differences associated with SAM survival, oedema status, and anthropometry were tested, adjusting for age, sex, HIV, and wealth index. FINDINGS: Based on 194 measured metabolites, the profiles of SAM survivors were similar to those of siblings and community controls. IGF1, creatinine, and FGF21, had loading values >0·3 and ranked stably in the top 10 distinguishing metabolites, but did not differ between SAM survivors and controls with univariate analysis. Current stunting was associated with IGF1 (ß = 15·2, SE = 3·5, partial R2 = 12%, p < 0·0001) and this relationship could be influenced by early childhood SAM (ß = 17·4, SE = 7·7, partial R2 = 2·8%, p = 0·025). No metabolites were associated with oedema status, duration of hospital stay, anthropometry measured during hospitalization, nor with changes in anthropometry since hospitalization. INTERPRETATION: In this group of survivors, SAM was not associated with longer-term global metabolic changes 7 years after treatment. However, SAM may influence the relationship between current stunting and IGF1. Further risk markers for NCDs in SAM survivors may only be revealed by direct metabolic challenge or later in life.

Hypoallergenic and anti-inflammatory feeds in children with complicated severe acute malnutrition: an open randomised controlled 3-arm intervention trial in Malawi.

Intestinal pathology in children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) persists despite standard management. Given the similarity with intestinal pathology in non-IgE mediated gastrointestinal food allergy and Crohn's disease, we tested whether therapeutic feeds effective in treating these conditions may benefit children with complicated SAM. After initial clinical stabilisation, 95 children aged 6-23 months admitted at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi between January 1st and December 31st, 2016 were allocated randomly to either standard feeds, an elemental feed or a polymeric feed for 14 days. Change in faecal calprotectin as a marker of intestinal inflammation and the primary outcome was similar in each arm: elemental vs. standard 4.1 µg/mg stool/day (95% CI, -29.9, 38.15; P = 0.81) and polymeric vs. standard 10 (-23.96, 43.91; P = 0.56). Biomarkers of intestinal and systemic inflammation and mucosal integrity were highly abnormal in most children at baseline and abnormal values persisted in all three arms. The enteropathy in complicated SAM did not respond to either standard feeds or alternative therapeutic feeds administered for up to 14 days. A better understanding of the pathogenesis of the gut pathology in complicated SAM is an urgent priority to inform the development of improved therapeutic interventions.

Chronic disease outcomes after severe acute malnutrition in Malawian children (ChroSAM): a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tackling severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is a global health priority. Heightened risk of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in children exposed to SAM at around 2 years of age is plausible in view of previously described consequences of other early nutritional insults. By applying developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) theory to this group, we aimed to explore the long-term effects of SAM. METHODS: We followed up 352 Malawian children (median age 9·3 years) who were still alive following SAM inpatient treatment between July 12, 2006, and March 7, 2007, (median age 24 months) and compared them with 217 sibling controls and 184 age-and-sex matched community controls. Our outcomes of interest were anthropometry, body composition, lung function, physical capacity (hand grip, step test, and physical activity), and blood markers of NCD risk. For comparisons of all outcomes, we used multivariable linear regression, adjusted for age, sex, HIV status, and socioeconomic status. We also adjusted for puberty in the body composition regression model. FINDINGS: Compared with controls, children who had survived SAM had lower height-for-age Z scores (adjusted difference vs community controls 0·4, 95% CI 0·6 to 0·2, p=0·001; adjusted difference vs sibling controls 0·2, 0·0 to 0·4, p=0·04), although they showed evidence of catch-up growth. These children also had shorter leg length (adjusted difference vs community controls 2·0 cm, 1·0 to 3·0, p<0·0001; adjusted difference vs sibling controls 1·4 cm, 0·5 to 2·3, p=0·002), smaller mid-upper arm circumference (adjusted difference vs community controls 5·6 mm, 1·9 to 9·4, p=0·001; adjusted difference vs sibling controls 5·7 mm, 2·3 to 9·1, p=0·02), calf circumference (adjusted difference vs community controls 0·49 cm, 0·1 to 0·9, p=0·01; adjusted difference vs sibling controls 0·62 cm, 0·2 to 1·0, p=0·001), and hip circumference (adjusted difference vs community controls 1·56 cm, 0·5 to 2·7, p=0·01; adjusted difference vs sibling controls 1·83 cm, 0·8 to 2·8, p<0·0001), and less lean mass (adjusted difference vs community controls -24·5, -43 to -5·5, p=0·01; adjusted difference vs sibling controls -11·5, -29 to -6, p=0·19) than did either sibling or community controls. Survivors of SAM had functional deficits consisting of weaker hand grip (adjusted difference vs community controls -1·7 kg, 95% CI -2·4 to -0·9, p<0·0001; adjusted difference vs sibling controls 1·01 kg, 0·3 to 1·7, p=0·005,)) and fewer minutes completed of an exercise test (sibling odds ratio [OR] 1·59, 95% CI 1·0 to 2·5, p=0·04; community OR 1·59, 95% CI 1·0 to 2·5, p=0·05). We did not detect significant differences between cases and controls in terms of lung function, lipid profile, glucose tolerance, glycated haemoglobin A1c, salivary cortisol, sitting height, and head circumference. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that SAM has long-term adverse effects. Survivors show patterns of so-called thrifty growth, which is associated with future cardiovascular and metabolic disease. The evidence of catch-up growth and largely preserved cardiometabolic and pulmonary functions suggest the potential for near-full rehabilitation. Future follow-up should try to establish the effects of puberty and later dietary or social transitions on these parameters, as well as explore how best to optimise recovery and quality of life for survivors. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.