Validity of Self-Report for Ascertaining HIV Status Among Circular Migrants and Permanent Residents in South Africa: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Analysis.

While expanded HIV testing is needed in South Africa, increasing accurate self-report of HIV status is an essential parallel goal in this highly mobile population. If self-report can ascertain true HIV-positive status, persons with HIV (PWH) could be linked to life-saving care without the existing delays required by producing medical records or undergoing confirmatory testing, which are especially burdensome for the country's high prevalence of circular migrants. We used Wave 1 data from The Migration and Health Follow-Up Study, a representative adult cohort, including circular migrants and permanent residents, randomly sampled from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in a rural area of Mpumalanga Province. Within the analytic sample (n = 1,918), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-report were calculated with dried blood spot (DBS) HIV test results as the standard. Among in-person participants (n = 2,468), 88.8% consented to DBS-HIV testing. HIV prevalence was 25.3%. Sensitivity of self-report was 43.9% (95% CI: 39.5-48.5), PPV was 93.4% (95% CI: 89.5-96.0); specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.3-99.4) and NPV was 83.9% (95% CI: 82.8-84.9). Self-report of an HIV-positive status was predictive of true status for both migrants and permanent residents in this high-prevalence setting. Persons who self-reported as living with HIV were almost always truly positive, supporting a change to clinical protocol to immediately connect persons who say they are HIV-positive to ART and counselling. However, 56% of PWH did not report as HIV-positive, highlighting the imperative to address barriers to disclosure.

The Crucial Role of Mothers and Siblings in Child Survival: Evidence From 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa.

A considerable body of research has studied the effects of siblings on child mortality through birth intervals. This research has commonly focused on older siblings. We argue that birth intervals with younger siblings may have equal or stronger effects on child mortality, even during a mother's pregnancy. Moreover, we contend that birth interval effects need to be considered only when siblings are coresident. Using longitudinal data from 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems across sub-Saharan Africa, covering more than 560,000 children, we examine the proximate role of siblings and mothers in child mortality. We find that a birth interval of 24 months or more is advantageous for both older and younger siblings. The effect of a younger sibling on child mortality is more pronounced than that of an older sibling and adds to the effect of an older sibling. Moreover, child mortality is particularly low during a mother's subsequent pregnancy, contrasting the shock resulting from a younger sibling's birth. Further, we find that a mother's or sibling's absence from the household results in a higher risk of mortality, and the death of either reduces child survival up to six months before the death.

Internal migration and health in South Africa: determinants of healthcare utilisation in a young adult cohort.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, human geographic mobility is high as people engage in both permanent and temporary relocation, predominantly from rural to urban areas. Such mobility can compromise healthcare access and utilisation. The objective of this paper is to explore healthcare utilisation and its determinants in a cohort of internal migrants and permanent residents (non-migrants) originating from the Agincourt sub-district in South Africa's rural northeast. METHODS: A 5-year cohort study of 3800 individuals aged 18 to 40 commenced in 2017. Baseline data have been collected from 1764 Agincourt residents and 1334 temporary, mostly urban-based, migrants, and are analysed using bivariate analyses, logistic and multinomial regression models, and propensity score matching analysis. RESULTS: Health service utilisation differs sharply by migrant status and sex. Among those with a chronic condition, migrants had 0.33 times the odds of non-migrants to have consulted a health service in the preceding year, and males had 0.32 times the odds of females of having used health services. Of those who utilised services, migration status was further associated with the type of healthcare utilised, with 97% of non-migrant rural residents having accessed government facilities, while large proportions of migrants (31%) utilised private health services or consulted traditional healers (25%) in migrant destinations. The multinomial logistic regression analysis indicated that, in the presence of controls, migrants had 8.12 the relative risk of non-migrants for utilising private healthcare (versus the government-services-only reference category), and 2.40 the relative risk of non-migrants for using a combination of public and private sector facilities. These findings of differential utilisation hold under statistical adjustment for relevant controls and for underlying propensity to migrate. CONCLUSIONS: Migrants and non-migrants in the study population in South Africa were found to utilise health services differently, both in overall use and in the type of healthcare consulted. The study helps improve upon the limited stock of knowledge on how migrants interface with healthcare systems in low and middle-income country settings. Findings can assist in guiding policies and programmes to be directed more effectively to the populations most in need, and to drive locally adapted approaches to universal health coverage.

Dimensions of internal migration and their relationship to blood pressure in South Africa.

Hypertension prevalence is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like South Africa, and migration and its concomitant urbanization are often considered to be associated with this rise. However, relatively little is known about the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and internal migration - a highly prevalent population process in LMICs. This study employed data for a group of 194 adult men and women from an original pilot dataset drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in north-east South Africa conducted in 2012. Migrants in the sample were identified, tracked and interviewed. The relationship between BP and migration distance and the number of months an individual spent away from his/her home village was estimated using robust OLS regression, controlling for a series of socioeconomic, health and behavioural characteristics. It was found that migrants who moved a longer distance and for longer durations had significantly higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures compared with shorter-term migrants and those who remained nearby or in their home village. These associations remained robust and statistically significant when adjusting for measures of socioeconomic conditions, as well as body mass index and the number of meals consumed per day. Migration, both in terms of distance and time away, explained significant variation in the blood pressure of migrants in this typical South African context. The findings suggest the need for further studies of the nutritional and psycho-social factors associated with geographic mobility that may be important to understand rising hypertension levels in LMICs.

Association between internal migration and epidemic dynamics: an analysis of cause-specific mortality in Kenya and South Africa using health and demographic surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Many low- and middle-income countries are facing a double burden of disease with persisting high levels of infectious disease, and an increasing prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD). Within these settings, complex processes and transitions concerning health and population are underway, altering population dynamics and patterns of disease. Understanding the mechanisms through which changing socioeconomic and environmental contexts may influence health is central to developing appropriate public health policy. Migration, which involves a change in environment and health exposure, is one such mechanism. METHODS: This study uses Competing Risk Models to examine the relationship between internal migration and premature mortality from AIDS/TB and NCDs. The analysis employs 9 to 14 years of longitudinal data from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) of the INDEPTH Network located in Kenya and South Africa (populations ranging from 71 to 223 thousand). The study tests whether the mortality of migrants converges to that of non-migrants over the period of observation, controlling for age, sex and education level. RESULTS: In all four HDSS, AIDS/TB has a strong influence on overall deaths. However, in all sites the probability of premature death (45q15) due to AIDS/TB is declining in recent periods, having exceeded 0.39 in the South African sites and 0.18 in the Kenyan sites in earlier years. In general, the migration effect presents similar patterns in relation to both AIDS/TB and NCD mortality, and shows a migrant mortality disadvantage with no convergence between migrants and non-migrants over the period of observation. Return migrants to the Agincourt HDSS (South Africa) are on average four times more likely to die of AIDS/TB or NCDs than are non-migrants. In the Africa Health Research Institute (South Africa) female return migrants have approximately twice the risk of dying from AIDS/TB from the year 2004 onwards, while there is a divergence to higher AIDS/TB mortality risk amongst female migrants to the Nairobi HDSS from 2010. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that structural socioeconomic issues, rather than epidemic dynamics are likely to be associated with differences in mortality risk by migrant status. Interventions aimed at improving recent migrant's access to treatment may mitigate risk.

Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013.

BACKGROUND: Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population. METHODS: We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993-2013. RESULTS: From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males. CONCLUSIONS: This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Household structure vs. composition: Understanding gendered effects on educational progress in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Demographers have long been interested in the relationship between living arrangements and gendered outcomes for children in sub-Saharan Africa. Most extant research conflates household structure with composition and has revealed little about the pathways that link these components to gendered outcomes. OBJECTIVES: First, we offer a conceptual approach that differentiates structure from composition with a focus on gendered processes that operate in the household; and second, we demonstrate the value of this approach through an analysis of educational progress for boys and girls in rural South Africa. METHODS: We use data from the 2002 round of the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Our analytical sample includes 22,997 children aged 6-18 who were neither parents themselves nor lived with a partner or partner's family. We employ ordinary least squares regression models to examine the effects of structure and composition on educational progress of girls and boys. RESULTS: The results suggest that non-nuclear structures are associated with similar negative effects for both boys and girls compared to children growing up in nuclear households. However, the presence of other kin in the absence of one or both parents results in gendered effects favouring boys. CONCLUSION: The absence of any gendered effects when using a household structure typology suggests that secular changes to attitudes about gender equity trump any specific gendered processes stemming from particular configurations. On the other hand, gendered effects that appear when one or both parents are absent show that traditional gender norms and/or resource constraints continue to favour boys. CONTRIBUTION: Despite the wealth of literature on household structure and children's educational outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa, the conceptual basis of these effects has not been well articulated. We have shown the value of unpacking household structure to better understand how gender norms and gendered resource allocations impact education.

Effects of recall time on cause-of-death findings using verbal autopsy: empirical evidence from rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a widely used technique for assigning causes to non-medically certified deaths using information gathered from a close caregiver. Both operational and cultural factors may cause delays in follow-up of deaths. The resulting time lag-from death to VA interview-can influence ways in which terminal events are remembered, and thus affect cause-of-death assignment. This study investigates the impact of recall period on causes of death determined by VA. METHODS: A total of 10,882 deaths from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with complete VAs, including recall period, were incorporated in this study. To measure seasonal effect, cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated and compared by every cause for VAs undertaken within six months of death and those undertaken from six to 12 months of death. All causes were classified into eight broad categories and entered in a multiple logistic regression to explore outcome by recall period in relation to covariates. RESULTS: The majority of deaths (83 %) had VAs completed within 12 months. There was a tendency towards longer recall periods for deaths of those under one year or over 65 years of age. Only the acute respiratory, diarrhoeal and other unspecified non-communicable disease groups showed a CSMF ratio significantly different from unity at the 99 % confidence level between the two recall periods. Only neonatal deaths showed significantly different OR for recall exceeding 12 months (OR 1.69; p value = 0.004) and this increased when adjusting for background factors (OR 2.58; p value = 0.000). CONCLUSION: A recall period of up to one year between death and VA interview did not have any consequential effects on the cause-of-death patterns derived, with the exception of neonatal causes. This is an important operational consideration given the planned widespread use of the VA approach in civil registration, HDSS sites and occasional surveys.

Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region. METHODS: Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011. RESULTS: Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.

Youth migration, livelihood prospects and demographic dividend: A comparison of the Census 2011 and Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the rural northeast of South Africa.

The 2011 South African national census shows a cohort of young adults comprising an increasing share of the population. This finding is borne out in longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). This primarily descriptive paper uses the Agincourt HDSS to examine the migration, employment and unemployment patterns in young adults. The study reveals high levels of temporary labour migration linking rural areas to metropolitan areas and secondary urban places. The type of work conducted by young adults in the Agincourt population is predominantly unskilled labour for both sexes. However, there is some evidence of female employment increasing in more educated sectors. Across all working ages there is pronounced unemployment, but the main pressure is felt by the younger adult population. Education and skills development for both sexes should be strengthened to support the country's efforts to vastly improve labour force participation amongst the youth.

A Successful Failure: Missing the MDG4 Target for Under-Five Mortality in South Africa.

Reflecting on under-five mortality, Peter Byass and colleagues consider how some countries may fail to meet millennium development goal targets despite making considerable advances.

Clinical features, proximate causes, and consequences of active convulsive epilepsy in Africa.

PURPOSE: Epilepsy is common in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but the clinical features and consequences are poorly characterized. Most studies are hospital-based, and few studies have compared different ecological sites in SSA. We described active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) identified in cross-sectional community-based surveys in SSA, to understand the proximate causes, features, and consequences. METHODS: We performed a detailed clinical and neurophysiologic description of ACE cases identified from a community survey of 584,586 people using medical history, neurologic examination, and electroencephalography (EEG) data from five sites in Africa: South Africa; Tanzania; Uganda; Kenya; and Ghana. The cases were examined by clinicians to discover risk factors, clinical features, and consequences of epilepsy. We used logistic regression to determine the epilepsy factors associated with medical comorbidities. KEY FINDINGS: Half (51%) of the 2,170 people with ACE were children and 69% of seizures began in childhood. Focal features (EEG, seizure types, and neurologic deficits) were present in 58% of ACE cases, and these varied significantly with site. Status epilepticus occurred in 25% of people with ACE. Only 36% received antiepileptic drugs (phenobarbital was the most common drug [95%]), and the proportion varied significantly with the site. Proximate causes of ACE were adverse perinatal events (11%) for onset of seizures before 18 years; and acute encephalopathy (10%) and head injury prior to seizure onset (3%). Important comorbidities were malnutrition (15%), cognitive impairment (23%), and neurologic deficits (15%). The consequences of ACE were burns (16%), head injuries (postseizure) (1%), lack of education (43%), and being unmarried (67%) or unemployed (57%) in adults, all significantly more common than in those without epilepsy. SIGNIFICANCE: There were significant differences in the comorbidities across sites. Focal features are common in ACE, suggesting identifiable and preventable causes. Malnutrition and cognitive and neurologic deficits are common in people with ACE and should be integrated into the management of epilepsy in this region. Consequences of epilepsy such as burns, lack of education, poor marriage prospects, and unemployment need to be addressed.

Changing use of traditional healthcare amongst those dying of HIV related disease and TB in rural South Africa from 2003 - 2011: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2011 there were 5.5 million HIV infected people in South Africa and 71% of those requiring antiretroviral therapy (ART) received it. The effective integration of traditional medical practitioners and biomedical providers in HIV prevention and care has been demonstrated. However concerns remain that the use of traditional treatments for HIV-related disease may lead to pharmacokinetic interactions between herbal remedies and ART drugs and delay ART initiation. Here we analyse the changing prevalence and determinants of traditional healthcare use amongst those dying of HIV-related disease, pulmonary tuberculosis and other causes in a rural South African community between 2003 and 2011. ART was made available in this area in the latter part of this period. METHODS: Data was collected during household visits and verbal autopsy interviews. InterVA-4 was used to assign causes of death. Spatial analyses of the distribution of traditional healthcare use were performed. Logistic regression models were developed to test associations of determinants with traditional healthcare use. RESULTS: There were 5929 deaths in the study population of which 47.7% were caused by HIV-related disease or pulmonary tuberculosis (HIV/AIDS and TB). Traditional healthcare use declined for all deaths, with higher levels throughout for those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB than for those dying of other causes. In 2003-2005, sole use of biomedical treatment was reported for 18.2% of HIV/AIDS and TB deaths and 27.2% of other deaths, by 2008-2011 the figures were 49.9% and 45.3% respectively. In bivariate analyses, higher traditional healthcare use was associated with Mozambican origin, lower education levels, death in 2003-2005 compared to the later time periods, longer illness duration and moderate increases in prior household mortality. In the multivariate model only country of origin, time period and illness duration remained associated. CONCLUSIONS: There were large decreases in reported traditional healthcare use and increases in the sole use of biomedical treatment amongst those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB. No associations between socio-economic position, age or gender and the likelihood of traditional healthcare use were seen. Further qualitative and quantitative studies are needed to assess whether these figures reflect trends in healthcare use amongst the entire population and the reasons for the temporal changes identified.

Ubiquitous burden: the contribution of migration to AIDS and Tuberculosis mortality in rural South Africa.

The paper aims to estimate the extent to which migrants are contributing to AIDS or tuberculosis (TB) mortality among rural sub-district populations. The Agincourt (South Africa) health and socio-demographic surveillance system provided comprehensive data on vital and migration events between 1994 and 2006. AIDS and TB cause-deleted life expectancy, and crude death rates by gender, migration status and period were computed. The annualised crude death rate almost tripled from 5·39 [95% CI 5·13-5·65] to 15·10 [95% CI 14·62-15·59] per 1000 over the years 1994-2006. The contribution of AIDS and TB in returned migrants to the increase in crude death rate was 78·7% [95% CI 77·4-80·1] for males and 44·4% [95% CI 43·2-46·1] for females. So, in a typical South African setting dependent on labour migration for rural livelihoods, the contribution of returned migrants, many infected with AIDS and TB, to the burden of disease is high.

Patterns and trends in household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

This study examines patterns and trends in household food security in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, from 2010 to 2019. We use data from a household panel nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio- Demographic Surveillance System. Findings indicate that there have been improvements in household food security in this rural setting over the last decade. By polychoric principal component analysis, an aggregate food security index was constructed and we observed a small, yet important, proportion of households (7.8 %) that remained chronically food insecure. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. Findings reveal that the observed differences in household food security status are as a result of differences in socioeconomic status. We therefore recommend that focus must be placed on identifying economic opportunities and empowering the chronically food insecure households if universal household food security is to be attained in rural South Africa and beyond.

Digital Adoption by an Organization Supporting Informal Caregivers During COVID-19 Pandemic Showing Impact on Service Use, Organizational Performance, and Carers' Well-Being: Retrospective Population-Based Database Study With Embedded User Survey.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a move from face-to-face to digital delivery of services by hospitals and primary care. However, little is known about the impact of digital transformation on organizations supporting unpaid caregivers. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the value of care provided by such informal caregivers is estimated to be £111 billion (US$ 152.7 billion) in England. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze service uptake patterns (including digital service options) over the pandemic period in an English caregivers' support organization covering a population of 0.98 million; measure changes in organizational performance, service efficiency, and quality; and identify the views of caregivers on service provision and future digital delivery. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of the use of digital versus nondigital support services (January 2019 to June 2021) by caregivers in city and rural geographic areas. We compared organizational performance and service quality indicators for 2 financial years (2019-2020 and 2020-2021). A survey was conducted to identify barriers and facilitators to digital service uptake, the computer proficiency of caregivers (the Computer Proficiency Questionnaire, 12-item version), and preferences for future digital service provision. Quantitative data were analyzed using Stata 13 (StataCorp LLC). Thematic analysis was used for open-text survey responses. RESULTS: The number of caregivers registered with the organization rose from 14,817 in 2019 to 20,237 in 2021. Monthly contacts rose from 1929 to 6741, with remote contacts increasing from 48.89% (943/1929) to 86.68% (5843/6741); distinctive patterns were observed for city versus rural caregivers. There was an increase in one-to-one contacts (88.8%) and caregiver assessments (20.9%), with no expansion in staffing. Service quality indicators showed an improvement in 5 of 8 variables (all P<.05). The 152 carers completing the survey had similar demographics to all registered caregivers. The Computer Proficiency Questionnaire, 12-item version, mean score of 25.61 (SD 4.40) indicated relatively high computer proficiency. The analysis of open-text responses identified a preference for the organization to continue to offer face-to-face services as well as web-based options. The digital services that were the most highly rated were carers' well-being assessments, support needs checks, and peer support groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that staff in the caregiver support organization were agile in adapting their services to digital delivery while dealing with increased numbers of registered clients and higher monthly contacts, all without obvious detriment to service quality. Caregivers indicated a preference for blended services, even while recording high computer proficiency. Considering the economic importance of unpaid caregivers, more attention should be given to organizations funded to provide support for them and to the potential for technology to enhance caregivers' access to, and engagement with, such services.

Young children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death: a rural South African population-based surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that a young child's risk of dying increases following the mother's death, but little is known about the risk when the mother becomes very ill prior to her death. We hypothesized that children would be more likely to die during the period several months before their mother's death, as well as for several months after her death. Therefore we investigated the relationship between young children's likelihood of dying and the timing of their mother's death and, in particular, the existence of a critical period of increased risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data from a health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa were collected on children 0-5 y of age from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2008. Discrete time survival analysis was used to estimate children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death, accounting for moderators. 1,244 children (3% of sample) died from 1994 to 2008. The probability of child death began to rise 6-11 mo prior to the mother's death and increased markedly during the 2 mo immediately before the month of her death (odds ratio [OR] 7.1 [95% CI 3.9-12.7]), in the month of her death (OR 12.6 [6.2-25.3]), and during the 2 mo following her death (OR 7.0 [3.2-15.6]). This increase in the probability of dying was more pronounced for children whose mothers died of AIDS or tuberculosis compared to other causes of death, but the pattern remained for causes unrelated to AIDS/tuberculosis. Infants aged 0-6 mo at the time of their mother's death were nine times more likely to die than children aged 2-5 y. The limitations of the study included the lack of knowledge about precisely when a very ill mother will die, a lack of information about child nutrition and care, and the diagnosis of AIDS deaths by verbal autopsy rather than serostatus. CONCLUSIONS: Young children in lower income settings are more likely to die not only after their mother's death but also in the months before, when she is seriously ill. Interventions are urgently needed to support families both when the mother becomes very ill and after her death. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa.

BACKGROUND: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality in a parsimonious way by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty. OBJECTIVE: 1. To quantify changes in the sex-age pattern of mortality experienced by a population with endemic HIV. 2. To develop and demonstrate a robust Bayesian estimation method for the HP model that accounts for uncertainty. METHODS: Bayesian estimation methods are adapted to work with the HP model. Temporal changes in parameter values are related to changes in HIV prevalence. RESULTS: Over the period when the HIV epidemic in South Africa was growing, mortality in the population described by our data increased profoundly with losses of life expectancy of ~15 years for both males and females. The temporal changes in the HP parameters reflect in a parsimonious way the changes in the age pattern of mortality. We develop a robust Bayesian method to estimate the eight parameters of the HP model and thoroughly demonstrate it. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in mortality in South Africa over the past fifteen years have been profound. The HP model can be fit well using Bayesian methods, and the results can be useful in developing a parsimonious description of changes in the age pattern of mortality. COMMENTS: The motivating aim of this work is to develop new methods that can be useful in applying the HP eight-parameter model of age-specific mortality. We have done this and chosen an interesting application to demonstrate the new methods.