Quantifying the economic value and quality of life impact of earlier influenza vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced? METHODS: We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6. RESULTS: Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2-1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634-17,794 influenza cases, $0.6-$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1-$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35-64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2-1.6) averted 11,366-1660 influenza cases, $0.6-$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3-$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42-8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits. CONCLUSION: Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings.

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic.

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.

The role of subway travel in an influenza epidemic: a New York City simulation.

The interactions of people using public transportation in large metropolitan areas may help spread an influenza epidemic. An agent-based model computer simulation of New York City's (NYC's) five boroughs was developed that incorporated subway ridership into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered disease model framework. The model contains a total of 7,847,465 virtual people. Each person resides in one of the five boroughs of NYC and has a set of socio-demographic characteristics and daily behaviors that include age, sex, employment status, income, occupation, and household location and membership. The model simulates the interactions of subway riders with their workplaces, schools, households, and community activities. It was calibrated using historical data from the 1957-1958 influenza pandemics and from NYC travel surveys. The surveys were necessary to enable inclusion of subway riders into the model. The model results estimate that if influenza did occur in NYC with the characteristics of the 1957-1958 pandemic, 4% of transmissions would occur on the subway. This suggests that interventions targeted at subway riders would be relatively ineffective in containing the epidemic. A number of hypothetical examples demonstrate this feature. This information could prove useful to public health officials planning responses to epidemics.

Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania.

BACKGROUND: During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees. METHODS: A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R(0)) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure. RESULTS: For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R(0) = 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95% Range: $8.0 - $45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been $14,185 ($5,423 - $30,565) for R(0) = 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501 - $53,461) for R(0) = 1.6, and $23,483 ($8,870 - $50,926) for R(0) = 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.

Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States.

Planning a response to an outbreak of a pandemic strain of influenza is a high public health priority. Three research groups using different individual-based, stochastic simulation models have examined the consequences of intervention strategies chosen in consultation with U.S. public health workers. The first goal is to simulate the effectiveness of a set of potentially feasible intervention strategies. Combinations called targeted layered containment (TLC) of influenza antiviral treatment and prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions of quarantine, isolation, school closure, community social distancing, and workplace social distancing are considered. The second goal is to examine the robustness of the results to model assumptions. The comparisons focus on a pandemic outbreak in a population similar to that of Chicago, with approximately 8.6 million people. The simulations suggest that at the expected transmissibility of a pandemic strain, timely implementation of a combination of targeted household antiviral prophylaxis, and social distancing measures could substantially lower the illness attack rate before a highly efficacious vaccine could become available. Timely initiation of measures and school closure play important roles. Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission.

Simulating school closure strategies to mitigate an influenza epidemic.

BACKGROUND: There remains substantial debate over the impact of school closure as a mitigation strategy during an influenza pandemic. The ongoing 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic has provided an unparalleled opportunity to test interventions with the most up-to-date simulations. METHODS: To assist the Allegheny County Health Department during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agents Study group employed an agent-based computer simulation model (ABM) of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, to explore the effects of various school closure strategies on mitigating influenza epidemics of different reproductive rates (R0). RESULTS: Entire school system closures were not more effective than individual school closures. Any type of school closure may need to be maintained throughout most of the epidemic (ie, at least 8 weeks) to have any significant effect on the overall serologic attack rate. In fact, relatively short school closures (ie, 2 weeks or less) may actually slightly increase the overall attack rate by returning susceptible students back into schools in the middle of the epidemic. Varying the illness threshold at which school closures are triggered did not seem to have substantial impact on the effectiveness of school closures, suggesting that short delays in closing schools should not cause concern. CONCLUSIONS: School closures alone may not be able to quell an epidemic but, when maintained for at least 8 weeks, could delay the epidemic peak for up to a week, providing additional time to implement a second more effective intervention such as vaccination.

Using Influenza-Like Illness Data to Reconstruct an Influenza Outbreak.

The objective of this study was to reconstruct the type A influenza epidemic that occurred in the Research Triangle Park (RTP) region of North Carolina during the 2003-04 flu season. We describe an agent-based influenza transmission model that uses Influenza-like Illness (ILI) data gathered from state agencies to estimate model parameters. The design of the model is similar to models represented in the literature that have been used to predict the impact of pandemic avian influenza in Southeast Asia and in the continental United States and to assess containment strategies. The focus of this model aims to reconstruct a historical epidemic that left traces of its impact in the form of an ILI epidemic curve. In this context, the work assumes aspects of a curve fitting exercise.

Systems biology for organotypic cell cultures.

Translating in vitro biological data into actionable information related to human health holds the potential to improve disease treatment and risk assessment of chemical exposures. While genomics has identified regulatory pathways at the cellular level, translation to the organism level requires a multiscale approach accounting for intra-cellular regulation, inter-cellular interaction, and tissue/organ-level effects. Tissue-level effects can now be probed in vitro thanks to recently developed systems of three-dimensional (3D), multicellular, "organotypic" cell cultures, which mimic functional responses of living tissue. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding interactions across different biological scales, complicating accurate prediction of health outcomes from molecular/genomic data and tissue responses. Systems biology aims at mathematical modeling of complex, non-linear biological systems. We propose to apply a systems biology approach to achieve a computational representation of tissue-level physiological responses by integrating empirical data derived from organotypic culture systems with computational models of intracellular pathways to better predict human responses. Successful implementation of this integrated approach will provide a powerful tool for faster, more accurate and cost-effective screening of potential toxicants and therapeutics. On September 11, 2015, an interdisciplinary group of scientists, engineers, and clinicians gathered for a workshop in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to discuss this ambitious goal. Participants represented laboratory-based and computational modeling approaches to pharmacology and toxicology, as well as the pharmaceutical industry, government, non-profits, and academia. Discussions focused on identifying critical system perturbations to model, the computational tools required, and the experimental approaches best suited to generating key data.

NIDDK data repository: a central collection of clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases have established central repositories for the collection of DNA, biological samples, and clinical data to be catalogued at a single site. Here we present an overview of the site which stores the clinical data and links to biospecimens. DESCRIPTION: The NIDDK Data repository is a web-enabled resource cataloguing clinical trial data and supporting information from NIDDK supported studies. The Data Repository allows for the co-location of multiple electronic datasets that were created as part of clinical investigations. The Data Repository does not serve the role of a Data Coordinating Center, but rather as a warehouse for the clinical findings once the trials have been completed. Because both biological and genetic samples are collected from many of the studies, a data management system for the cataloguing and retrieval of samples was developed. CONCLUSION: The Data Repository provides a unique resource for researchers in the clinical areas supported by NIDDK. In addition to providing a warehouse of data, Data Repository staff work with the users to educate them on the datasets as well as assist them in the acquisition of multiple data sets for cross-study analysis. Unlike the majority of biological databases, the Data Repository acts both as a catalogue for data, biosamples, and genetic materials and as a central processing point for the requests for all biospecimens. Due to regulations on the use of clinical data, the ultimate release of that data is governed under NIDDK data release policies. The Data Repository serves as the conduit for such requests.

AUDIO-CASI: Hardware and Software Considerations in Adding Sound to a Computer-Assisted Interviewing System.

This article reviews a multimedia application in the area of survey measurement research: adding audio capabilities to a computer-assisted interviewing system. Hardware and software issues are discussed, and potential hardware devices that operate from DOS platforms are reviewed. Three types of hardware devices are considered: PCMCIA devices, parallel port attachments, and laptops with built-in sound.

Sample and data sharing: observations from a central data repository.

OBJECTIVES: From 2003 to 2013, RTI International served as the data repository for the National Institute of Diabetes, Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK). RTI worked closely with two sample repository partners to build and maintain the Central Repository (CR) that made data and samples available to approved requestors. In this paper, we recap aspects of establishing the mechanism; detail the challenges and limitations of data and sample sharing, and explore the future of resource sharing in light of the evolving environment of research funding. DESIGN AND METHODS: Effective maintenance required the system to be flexible and dynamic while at the same time compliant with established data standards. RESULTS: Our years serving as the CR for NIDDK have yielded a number of observations about the difficulties of running a repository, an operation that is by definition dependent on many outside parties whose degree of expertise and efficiency have a direct impact on repository functioning. CONCLUSION: The bio-banking industry will likely continue to become more globally centralized for studying specific genetic diseases and monitoring the health of our environment. The dynamic relationship between emerging technologies and the infrastructure will be needed to support future research that requires the ability of organizations providing support to remain flexible even while following established standards.

'What's in the NIDDK CDR?'--public query tools for the NIDDK central data repository.

The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive Disease (NIDDK) Central Data Repository (CDR) is a web-enabled resource available to researchers and the general public. The CDR warehouses clinical data and study documentation from NIDDK funded research, including such landmark studies as The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT, 1983-93) and the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC, 1994-present) follow-up study which has been ongoing for more than 20 years. The CDR also houses data from over 7 million biospecimens representing 2 million subjects. To help users explore the vast amount of data stored in the NIDDK CDR, we developed a suite of search mechanisms called the public query tools (PQTs). Five individual tools are available to search data from multiple perspectives: study search, basic search, ontology search, variable summary and sample by condition. PQT enables users to search for information across studies. Users can search for data such as number of subjects, types of biospecimens and disease outcome variables without prior knowledge of the individual studies. This suite of tools will increase the use and maximize the value of the NIDDK data and biospecimen repositories as important resources for the research community. Database URL: https://www.niddkrepository.org/niddk/home.do.

Sharing Research Models: Using Software Engineering Practices for Facilitation.

Increasingly, researchers are turning to computational models to understand the interplay of important variables on systems' behaviors. Although researchers may develop models that meet the needs of their investigation, application limitations-such as nonintuitive user interface features and data input specifications-may limit the sharing of these tools with other research groups. By removing these barriers, other research groups that perform related work can leverage these work products to expedite their own investigations. The use of software engineering practices can enable managed application production and shared research artifacts among multiple research groups by promoting consistent models, reducing redundant effort, encouraging rigorous peer review, and facilitating research collaborations that are supported by a common toolset. This report discusses three established software engineering practices- the iterative software development process, object-oriented methodology, and Unified Modeling Language-and the applicability of these practices to computational model development. Our efforts to modify the MIDAS TranStat application to make it more user-friendly are presented as an example of how computational models that are based on research and developed using software engineering practices can benefit a broader audience of researchers.

Including the Group Quarters Population in the US Synthesized Population Database.

In 2005, RTI International researchers developed methods to generate synthesized population data on US households for the US Synthesized Population Database. These data are used in agent-based modeling, which simulates large-scale social networks to test how changes in the behaviors of individuals affect the overall network. Group quarters are residences where individuals live in close proximity and interact frequently. Although the Synthesized Population Database represents the population living in households, data for the nation's group quarters residents are not easily quantified because of US Census Bureau reporting methods designed to protect individuals' privacy.Including group quarters population data can be an important factor in agent-based modeling because the number of residents and the frequency of their interactions are variables that directly affect modeling results. Particularly with infectious disease modeling, the increased frequency of agent interaction may increase the probability of infectious disease transmission between individuals and the probability of disease outbreaks.This report reviews our methods to synthesize data on group quarters residents to match US Census Bureau data. Our goal in developing the Group Quarters Population Database was to enable its use with RTI's US Synthesized Population Database in the Modeling of Infectious Diseases Agent Study.

The benefits to all of ensuring equal and timely access to influenza vaccines in poor communities.

When influenza vaccines are in short supply, allocating vaccines equitably among different jurisdictions can be challenging. But justice is not the only reason to ensure that poorer counties have the same access to influenza vaccines as do wealthier ones. Using a detailed computer simulation model of the Washington, D.C., metropolitan region, we found that limiting or delaying vaccination of residents of poorer counties could raise the total number of influenza infections and the number of new infections per day at the peak of an epidemic throughout the region-even in the wealthier counties that had received more timely and abundant vaccine access. Among other underlying reasons, poorer counties tend to have high-density populations and more children and other higher-risk people per household, resulting in more interactions and both increased transmission of influenza and greater risk for worse influenza outcomes. Thus, policy makers across the country, in poor and wealthy areas alike, have an incentive to ensure that poorer residents have equal access to vaccines.

The NIDDK Central Repository at 8 years--ambition, revision, use and impact.

The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) Central Repository makes data and biospecimens from NIDDK-funded research available to the broader scientific community. It thereby facilitates: the testing of new hypotheses without new data or biospecimen collection; pooling data across several studies to increase statistical power; and informative genetic analyses using the Repository's well-curated phenotypic data. This article describes the initial database plan for the Repository and its revision using a simpler model. Among the lessons learned were the trade-offs between the complexity of a database design and the costs in time and money of implementation; the importance of integrating consent documents into the basic design; the crucial need for linkage files that associate biospecimen IDs with the masked subject IDs used in deposited data sets; and the importance of standardized procedures to test the integrity data sets prior to distribution. The Repository is currently tracking 111 ongoing NIDDK-funded studies many of which include genotype data, and it houses over 5 million biospecimens of more than 25 types including serum, plasma, stool, urine, DNA, red blood cells, buffy coat and tissue. Repository resources have supported a range of biochemical, clinical, statistical and genetic research (188 external requests for clinical data and 31 for biospecimens have been approved or are pending). Genetic research has included GWAS, validation studies, development of methods to improve statistical power of GWAS and testing of new statistical methods for genetic research. We anticipate that the future impact of the Repository's resources on biomedical research will be enhanced by (i) cross-listing of Repository biospecimens in additional searchable databases and biobank catalogs; (ii) ongoing deployment of new applications for querying the contents of the Repository; and (iii) increased harmonization of procedures, data collection strategies, questionnaires etc. across both research studies and within the vocabularies used by different repositories.

Attribute Assignment to a Synthetic Population in Support of Agent-Based Disease Modeling.

Communicable-disease transmission models are useful for the testing of prevention and intervention strategies. Agent-based models (ABMs) represent a new and important class of the many types of disease transmission models in use. Agent-based disease models benefit from their ability to assign disease transmission probabilities based on characteristics shared by individual agents. These shared characteristics allow ABMs to apply transmission probabilities when agents come together in geographic space. Modeling these types of social interactions requires data, and the results of the model largely depend on the quality of these input data. We initially generated a synthetic population for the United States, in support of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study. Subsequently, we created shared characteristics to use in ABMs. The specific goals for this task were to assign the appropriately aged populations to schools, workplaces, and public transit. Each goal presented its own challenges and problems; therefore, we used different techniques to create each type of shared characteristic. These shared characteristics have allowed disease models to more realistically predict the spread of disease, both spatially and temporally.

Protecting health care workers: a pandemic simulation based on Allegheny County.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has identified health care workers (HCWs) as a priority group to receive influenza vaccine. Although the importance of HCW to the health care system is well understood, the potential role of HCW in transmission during an epidemic has not been clearly established. METHODS: Using a standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) framework similar to previously developed pandemic models, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) of Allegheny County, PA, that incorporates the key health care system features to simulate the spread of an influenza epidemic and its effect on hospital-based HCWs. FINDINGS: Our simulation runs found the secondary attack rate among unprotected HCWs to be approximately 60% higher (54.3%) as that of all adults (34.1%), which would result in substantial absenteeism and additional risk to HCW families. Understanding how a pandemic may affect HCWs, who must be available to treat infected patients as well as patients with other medical conditions, is crucial to policy makers' and hospital administrators' preparedness planning.

A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

In the fall 2009, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) team employed an agent-based computer simulation model (ABM) of the greater Washington, DC, metropolitan region to assist the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Public Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, to address several key questions regarding vaccine allocation during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, including comparing a vaccinating children (i.e., highest transmitters)-first policy versus the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)-recommended vaccinating at-risk individuals-first policy. Our study supported adherence to the ACIP (instead of a children-first policy) prioritization recommendations for the H1N1 influenza vaccine when vaccine is in limited supply and that within the ACIP groups, children should receive highest priority.

Vaccination deep into a pandemic wave potential mechanisms for a "third wave" and the impact of vaccination.

BACKGROUND: In December 2009, when the H1N1 influenza pandemic appeared to be subsiding, public health officials and unvaccinated individuals faced the question of whether continued H1N1 immunization was still worthwhile. PURPOSE: To delineate what combinations of possible mechanisms could generate a third pandemic wave and then explore whether vaccinating the population at different rates and times would mitigate the wave. METHODS: As part of ongoing work with the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response at the USDHHS during the H1N1 influenza pandemic, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study team employed an agent-based computer simulation model of the Washington DC metropolitan region to delineate what mechanisms could generate a "third pandemic wave" and explored whether vaccinating the population at different rates and times would mitigate the wave. This model included explicit representations of the region's individuals, school systems, workplaces/commutes, households, and communities. RESULTS: Three mechanisms were identified that could cause a third pandemic wave; substantially increased viral transmissibility from seasonal forcing (changing influenza transmission with changing environmental conditions, i.e., seasons) and progressive viral adaptation; an immune escape variant; and changes in social mixing from holiday school closures. Implementing vaccination for these mechanisms, even during the down-slope of the fall epidemic wave, significantly mitigated the third wave. Scenarios showed the gains from initiating vaccination earlier, increasing the speed of vaccination, and prioritizing population subgroups based on Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Additional waves in an epidemic can be mitigated by vaccination even when an epidemic appears to be waning.