Association between diet quality in adolescence and adulthood and knee symptoms in adulthood: a 25-year cohort study.

We aimed to describe associations between diet quality in adolescence and adulthood and knee symptoms in adulthood. Two hundred seventy-five participants had adolescent diet measurements, 399 had adult diet measurements and 240 had diet measurements in both time points. Diet quality was assessed by Dietary Guidelines Index (DGI), reflecting adherence to Australian Dietary Guidelines. Knee symptoms were collected using Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). Data were analysed using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions. The overall adolescent DGI was not associated with adult knee symptoms, although lower intake of discretionary foods (e.g. cream, alcohol, bacon and cake) in adolescence was associated with lower pain (mean ratio (MR) 0·96) and dysfunction (MR 0·94). The overall adult DGI was not associated with knee symptoms; however, limiting saturated fat was associated with lower WOMAC (Pain: MR 0·93; stiffness: MR 0·93; dysfunction: MR 0·91), drinking water was associated with lower stiffness (MR 0·90) and fruit intake was associated with lower dysfunction (MR 0·90). Higher DGI for dairy products in adulthood was associated with higher WOMAC (Pain: MR 1·07; stiffness: MR 1·13; dysfunction: MR 1·11). Additionally, the score increases from adolescence to adulthood were not associated with adult knee symptoms, except for associations between score increase in limiting saturated fat and lower stiffness (MR 0·89) and between score increase in fruit intake and lower dysfunction (MR 0·92). In conclusion, the overall diet quality in adolescence and adulthood was not associated with knee symptoms in adulthood. However, some diet components may affect later knee symptoms.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the level and trends of point prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for other musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, i.e. those not covered by specific estimates generated for RA, OA, low back pain, neck pain and gout, from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and sociodemographic index. METHODS: Publicly available modelled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study were extracted and reported as counts and age-standardized rates per 100 000 population for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardized point prevalence estimates and deaths rates of other MSK disorders in 2017 were 4151.1 and 1.0 per 100 000. This was an increase of 3.4% and 7.2%, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate in 2017 was 380.2, an increase of 3.4%. The point prevalence estimate was higher among females and increased with age. This peaked in the 65-69 year age group for both females and males in 2017, followed by a decreasing trend for both sexes. At the national level, the highest age-standardized point prevalence estimates in 2017 were seen in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The largest increases in age-standardized point prevalence estimates were observed in Romania, Croatia and Armenia. CONCLUSION: The burden of other MSK disorders is proven to be substantial and increasing worldwide, with a notable intercountry variation. Data pertaining to specific diseases within this overarching category are required for future GBD MSK estimates. This would enable policymakers to better allocate resources and provide interventions appropriately.

Global, regional and national burden of osteoarthritis 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

OBJECTIVES: To report the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for osteoarthritis (OA) in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and Socio-demographic index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors). METHODS: Publicly available modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 were used. The burden of OA was estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of prevalence and incidence modelled data using the methods reported in the GBD 2017 Study. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rate of OA in 2017 were 3754.2 (95% UI 3389.4 to 4187.6) and 181.2 (95% UI 162.6 to 202.4) per 100 000, an increase of 9.3% (95% UI 8% to 10.7%) and 8.2% (95% UI 7.1% to 9.4%) from 1990, respectively. In addition, global age-standardised YLD rate in 2017 was 118.8 (95% UI 59.5 to 236.2), an increase of 9.6% (95% UI 8.3% to 11.1%) from 1990. The global prevalence was higher in women and increased with age, peaking at the >95 age group among women and men in 2017. Generally, a positive association was found between the age-standardised YLD rate and SDI at the regional and national levels. Age-standardised prevalence of OA in 2017 ranged from 2090.3 to 6128.1 cases per 100 000 population. United States (6128.1 (95% UI 5729.3 to 6582.9)), American Samoa (5281 (95% UI 4688 to 5965.9)) and Kuwait (5234.6 (95% UI 4643.2 to 5953.6)) had the three highest levels of age-standardised prevalence. Oman (29.6% (95% UI 24.8% to 34.9%)), Equatorial Guinea (28.6% (95% UI 24.4% to 33.7%)) and the United States 23.2% (95% UI 16.4% to 30.5%)) showed the highest increase in the age-standardised prevalence during 1990-2017. CONCLUSIONS: OA is a major public health challenge. While there is remarkable international variation in the prevalence, incidence and YLDs due to OA, the burden is increasing in most countries. It is expected to continue with increased life expectancy and ageing of the global population. Improving population and policy maker awareness of risk factors, including overweight and injury, and the importance and benefits of management of OA, together with providing health services for an increasing number of people living with OA, are recommended for management of the future burden of this condition.

The burden of osteoarthritis: self-reported severity in the KHOALA population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Lay descriptions of mild, moderate and severe disease states have been utilized in Global Burden of Disease studies in the calculation of years lived with disability, and may be a useful brief starting point for clinical care. The primary aims of this study were to estimate the proportion of an OA cohort within each severity level, and to assess the validity of lay descriptions of OA. METHODS: During 2014 to 2016, participants in the KHOALA population-based cohort completed questionnaires including pain, function, and quality of life, in addition to indicating which of the lay descriptions devised for presenting to populations in GBD2010 they felt best described their current condition. RESULTS: 569 participants comprising 152 with hip OA, 384 knee OA and 33 with both hip+knee OA participated. 10% of hip OA and 17% of knee OA participants classified themselves as having severe OA, a considerably higher proportion than the 2% reported for high-income countries in GBD2010.The lay descriptions showed significant convergent and divergent validity: pain, function and stiffness scores increased as the rating of severity increased, with a significant trend for EQ5D and EUROQOL VAS to decline, also indicating worse health state, as level of severity increased. CONCLUSION: Lay descriptions of levels of severity are understandable by participants and show convergent validity with standardized measure of physical and functional outcomes. The proportion of people with OA who align themselves with the severe category is considerably larger than that used in GBD estimates to estimate the impact of OA.

Association of body composition, physical activity and physical performance with knee cartilage thickness and bone area in young adults.

OBJECTIVE: To describe associations of body composition, physical activity and physical performance with knee cartilage thickness and subchondral bone area in young adults. METHODS: Body composition, physical activity and physical performance were measured 4-5 years prior to knee MRI. Cartilage thickness and bone area were measured quantitatively from MRI. Associations were assessed using linear regression analysis, with mediators being identified using mediation analysis. RESULTS: Participants (n = 186) were 31-41 years of age when the MRI was acquired and 48% were female. Greater lean mass was positively associated with cartilage thickness [ß = 6.52 µm/kg (95% CI 0.86, 12.18)] and bone area [ß = 13.37 mm2/kg (95% CI 5.43, 21.31)]. Physical performance measures were positively associated with cartilage thickness [long jump: ß = 2.44 µm/cm (95% CI 0.70, 4.18); hand grip strength: 7.74 µm/kg (95% CI 1.50, 13.98); physical work capacity: 1.07 µm/W (95% CI 0.29, 1.85)] and bone area [long jump: ß = 3.99 mm2/cm (95% CI 0.64, 7.34); hand grip strength: 19.06 mm2/kg (95% CI 7.21, 30.92); leg strength: 3.18 mm2/kg (95% CI 1.09, 5.28); physical work capacity: 3.15 mm2/W (95% CI 1.70, 4.60)]. Mediation analysis suggested these associations were mediated by lean mass (effect mediated: 27-95%). CONCLUSION: Greater lean mass and better physical performance measured 4-5 years prior were associated with greater knee cartilage thickness and subchondral bone area in young adults, and the associations of physical performance were largely mediated by lean mass. These findings suggest lean mass may play an important role in maintaining knee joint health in young adults.

Association of adiposity measures in childhood and adulthood with knee cartilage thickness, volume and bone area in young adults.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the associations of childhood and adulthood adiposity measures with knee cartilage thickness, volume and bone area in young adults. METHODS: Childhood and adulthood adiposity measures (weight, height, waist circumference and hip circumference) of 186 participants were collected in 1985 (aged 7-15 years) and during 2004-2006 (aged 26-36 years). Knee magnetic resonance imaging was conducted during 2008-2010 (aged 31-41 years) and cartilage thickness, volume and bone area were measured using a quantitative approach (Chondrometrics, Germany). Linear regressions were used to examine the above associations. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight was 7.6% in childhood and 42.1% in adulthood. Childhood weight (ß = - 5.57 mm2/kg) and body mass index (BMI) (ß = - 11.55 mm2/kg/m2) were negatively associated with adult patellar bone area, whereas adult weight was positively associated with bone area in medial femorotibial compartment (MFTC) (ß = 3.37 mm2/kg) and lateral femorotibial compartment (LFTC) (ß = 2.08 mm2/kg). Adult waist-hip ratio (WHR) was negatively associated with cartilage thickness (MFTC: ß = - 0.011; LFTC: ß = - 0.012 mm/0.01 unit), volume (Patella: ß = - 20.97; LFTC: ß = - 21.71 mm3/0.01 unit) and bone area (Patella: ß = - 4.39 mm2/0.01 unit). The change in WHR z-scores from childhood to adulthood was negatively associated with cartilage thickness (MFTC: ß = - 0.056 mm), volume (patella: - 89.95; LFTC: - 93.98 mm3), and bone area (patella: - 20.74 mm2). All p-values < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood weight and BMI were negatively but adult weight was positively associated with adult bone area. Adult WHR and the change in WHR from childhood to adulthood were negatively associated with cartilage thickness, volume, and bone area. These suggest early-life adiposity measures may affect knee structures in young adults.

Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2017.

OBJECTIVES: To provide the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex, Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors) and Healthcare Access and Quality (an indicator of health system performance) Index. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2017 were used. GBD 2017 modelled the burden of RA for 195 countries from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, incidence and DALYs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rates of RA were 246.6 (95% UI 222.4 to 270.8) and 14.9 (95% UI 13.3 to 16.4) in 2017, which increased by 7.4% (95% UI 5.3 to 9.4) and 8.2% (95% UI 5.9 to 10.5) from 1990, respectively. However, the age-standardised rate of RA DALYs per 100 000 population was 43.3 (95% UI 33.0 to 54.5) in 2017, which was a 3.6% (95% UI -9.7 to 0.3) decrease from the 1990 rate. The age-standardised prevalence and DALY rates increased with age and were higher in females; the rates peaked at 70-74 and 75-79 age groups for females and males, respectively. A non-linear association was found between age-standardised DALY rate and SDI. The global age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 1990 to 2012 but then increased and reached higher than expected levels in the following 5 years to 2017. The UK had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (471.8 (95% UI 428.9 to 514.9)) and age-standardised incidence rate (27.5 (95% UI 24.7 to 30.0)) in 2017. Canada, Paraguay and Guatemala showed the largest increases in age-standardised prevalence rates (54.7% (95% UI 49.2 to 59.7), 41.8% (95% UI 35.0 to 48.6) and 37.0% (95% UI 30.9 to 43.9), respectively) and age-standardised incidence rates (48.2% (95% UI 41.5 to 55.1), 43.6% (95% UI 36.6 to 50.7) and 36.8% (95% UI 30.4 to 44.3), respectively) between 1990 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: RA is a major global public health challenge. The age-standardised prevalence and incidence rates are increasing, especially in countries such as Canada, Paraguay and Guatemala. Early identification and treatment of RA is vital especially among females, in order to reduce the ongoing burden of this condition. The quality of health data needs to be improved for better monitoring of disease burden.

Association between childhood overweight measures and adulthood knee pain, stiffness and dysfunction: a 25-year cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the associations between overweight measures in childhood and knee pain, stiffness and dysfunction among adults 25 years later. METHODS: Subjects broadly representative of the Australian population (n=449, aged 31-41 years, female 48%) were selected from the Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey of 1985. Height, weight and knee injury were recorded and knee pain was assessed using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index (WOMAC). Childhood height, weight and knee injury had been measured according to standard protocols 25 years earlier and body mass index (BMI) and percentage overweight were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of knee pain was 34% and overweight in childhood and adulthood was 7% and 48%, respectively. Overall, there were no significant associations between childhood overweight measures and total WOMAC knee pain, stiffness and dysfunction scores in adulthood. However, in men, overweight in childhood was associated with adulthood WOMAC pain (relative risk (RR) 1.72, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.69) and childhood weight and BMI were associated with WOMAC stiffness and dysfunction. Childhood weight, BMI and overweight were all associated with the presence of adulthood walking knee pain in men and the whole sample. Most of these associations were independent of adult overweight measures. Subjects who were overweight in both childhood and adult life had a significant increase in the risk and prevalence of adulthood walking pain (RR=2.42, 95% CI 1.06 to 5.53). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood overweight measures were significantly associated with adulthood knee mechanical joint pain, stiffness and dysfunction among men, independent of adult overweight, suggesting that childhood overweight may lead to later knee symptoms in men.

Reflecting on the global burden of musculoskeletal conditions: lessons learnt from the global burden of disease 2010 study and the next steps forward.

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the strengths, limitations and lessons learned from estimating the burden from musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (GBD 2010 Study). It should be read in conjunction with the other GBD 2010 Study papers published in this journal. The strengths of the GBD 2010 Study include: the involvement of a MSK expert group; development of new and more valid case definitions, functional health states, and disability weights to better reflect the MSK conditions; the extensive series of systematic reviews undertaken to obtain data to derive the burden estimates; and the use of a new, more advanced version of the disease-modelling software (DisMod-MR). Limitations include: many regions of the world did not have data; the extent of heterogeneity between included studies; and burden does not include broader aspects of life, such as participation and well-being. A number of lessons were learned. Ongoing involvement of experts is critical to ensure the success of future efforts to quantify and monitor this burden. A paradigm shift is urgently needed among global agencies in order to alleviate the rapidly increasing global burden from MSK conditions. Prevention and control of MSK disability are required, along with health system changes. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the predictors and clinical course across different settings, and the ways in which MSK conditions can be better managed and prevented.

The global burden of gout: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study.

OBJECTIVE: Gout is the most common cause of inflammatory arthritis in men, but has not previously been included in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies. As part of the GBD 2010 Study, the Musculoskeletal Disorders and Risk Factors Expert Group estimated the global burden of gout. METHODS: The American Rheumatism Association 1977 case definition of primary gout was used in the study. A series of systematic reviews were conducted to gather the age-specific and sex-specific epidemiological data for gout prevalence, incidence, mortality risk and duration. Two main disabling sequelae of gout were identified; acute episode gout and chronic polyarticular gout, and used in the surveys to collect data to derive disability weights. The epidemiological data together with disability weights were then used to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for gout, for 1990 and 2010. No evidence of cause-specific mortality associated with gout was found. Gout disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), therefore, have the same value as YLDs. RESULTS: Global prevalence of gout was 0.08% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.07 to 0.08). DALYs increased from 76 000 (95% UI 48 to 112) in 1990 to 114 000 (95% UI 72 to 167) in 2010. Out of all 291 conditions studied in the GBD 2010 Study, gout ranked 138th in terms of disability as measured by YLDs, and 173rd in terms of overall burden (DALYs). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of gout is rising. With increasing ageing populations globally, this evidence is a significant prompt to optimise treatment and management of gout at individual, community and national levels.

The global burden of other musculoskeletal disorders: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate disability from the remainder of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders (categorised as other MSK) not covered by the estimates made specifically for osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), gout, low back pain and neck pain, as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study. METHODS: Systematic reviews were conducted to gather the age-sex-specific epidemiological data for other MSK. The focus was on finding health surveys and published studies that measured the overall amount of MSK disorders and complaints, and classified the remainder of MSK disorders that was not RA, OA, gout, low back or neck pain. Six levels of severity were defined to derive disability weights (DWs) and severity distribution. The data, DWs and severity distribution were used to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). Mortality was estimated for MSK-related deaths classified under other MSK. YLDs were added to years of life lost (YLLs) from the mortality estimates to derive overall burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: Global prevalence of other MSK was 8.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8.1% to 8.6%). DALYs increased from 20.6 million (95% UI 17.0 to 23.3 million) in 1990 to 30.9 million (95% UI 25.8 to 34.6 million) in 2010. The burden of other MSK increased with age. Globally, other MSK disability burden (YLD) ranked sixth. CONCLUSIONS: Ageing of the global population will further increase the burden of other MSK. Specific MSK conditions within this large category should be considered separately to enable more explicit estimates of their burden in future iterations of GBD.

The global burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis: estimates from the global burden of disease 2010 study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) as part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study and to explore how the burden of hip and knee OA compares with other conditions. METHODS: Systematic reviews were conducted to source age-specific and sex-specific epidemiological data for hip and knee OA prevalence, incidence and mortality risk. The prevalence and incidence of symptomatic, radiographic and self-reported hip or knee OA were included. Three levels of severity were defined to derive disability weights (DWs) and severity distribution (proportion with mild, moderate and severe OA). The prevalence by country and region was multiplied by the severity distribution and the appropriate disability weight to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). As there are no deaths directly attributed to OA, YLDs equate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: Globally, of the 291 conditions, hip and knee OA was ranked as the 11th highest contributor to global disability and 38th highest in DALYs. The global age-standardised prevalence of knee OA was 3.8% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.6% to 4.1%) and hip OA was 0.85% (95% UI 0.74% to 1.02%), with no discernible change from 1990 to 2010. Prevalence was higher in females than males. YLDs for hip and knee OA increased from 10.5 million in 1990 (0.42% of total DALYs) to 17.1 million in 2010 (0.69% of total DALYs). CONCLUSIONS: Hip and knee OA is one of the leading causes of global disability. Methodological issues within this study make it highly likely that the real burden of OA has been underestimated. With the aging and increasing obesity of the world's population, health professions need to prepare for a large increase in the demand for health services to treat hip and knee OA.

The global burden of rheumatoid arthritis: estimates from the global burden of disease 2010 study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the global burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study of 291 conditions and how the burden of RA compares with other conditions. METHODS: The optimum case definition of RA for the study was the American College of Rheumatology 1987 criteria. A series of systematic reviews were conducted to gather age-sex-specific epidemiological data for RA prevalence, incidence and mortality. Cause-specific mortality data were also included. Data were entered into DisMod-MR, a tool to pool available data, making use of study-level covariates to adjust for country, region and super-region random effects to estimate prevalence for every country and over time. The epidemiological data, in addition to disability weights, were used to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). YLDs were added to the years of life lost due to premature mortality to estimate the overall burden (disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) for RA for the years 1990, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: The global prevalence of RA was 0.24% (95% CI 0.23% to 0.25%), with no discernible change from 1990 to 2010. DALYs increased from 3.3 million (M) (95% CI 2.6 M to 4.1 M) in 1990 to 4.8 M (95% CI 3.7 M to 6.1 M) in 2010. This increase was due to a growth in population and increase in aging. Globally, of the 291 conditions studied, RA was ranked as the 42nd highest contributor to global disability, just below malaria and just above iodine deficiency (measured in YLDs). CONCLUSIONS: RA continues to cause modest global disability, with severe consequences in the individuals affected.

The global burden of musculoskeletal conditions for 2010: an overview of methods.

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of methods used for estimating the burden from musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in the Global Burden of Diseases 2010 study. It should be read in conjunction with the disease-specific MSK papers published in Annals of Rheumatic Diseases. Burden estimates (disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) were made for five specific MSK conditions: hip and/or knee osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), gout and neck pain, and an 'other MSK conditions' category. For each condition, the main disabling sequelae were identified and disability weights (DW) were derived based on short lay descriptions. Mortality (years of life lost (YLLs)) was estimated for RA and the rest category of 'other MSK', which includes a wide range of conditions such as systemic lupus erythematosus, other autoimmune diseases and osteomyelitis. A series of systematic reviews were conducted to determine the prevalence, incidence, remission, duration and mortality risk of each condition. A Bayesian meta-regression method was used to pool available data and to predict prevalence values for regions with no or scarce data. The DWs were applied to prevalence values for 1990, 2005 and 2010 to derive years lived with disability. These were added to YLLs to quantify overall burden (DALYs) for each condition. To estimate the burden of MSK disease arising from risk factors, population attributable fractions were determined for bone mineral density as a risk factor for fractures, the occupational risk of LBP and elevated body mass index as a risk factor for LBP and OA. Burden of Disease studies provide pivotal guidance for governments when determining health priority areas and allocating resources. Rigorous methods were used to derive the increasing global burden of MSK conditions.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS: We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS: 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION: This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A scoping review of patient self-report measures of flare in knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA): A report from the OMERACT flares in OA working group.

PURPOSE: We aimed to analyze the content validity/domain match and feasibility of self-report instruments that could measure flare in osteoarthritis (OA), by extending our 2017 literature review on the definition of flare in knee and hip OA. METHOD: We searched PubMed (Medline), Web of Science and PsycInfo (Ebsco Host) databases for original articles reporting research about flare (or synonyms) in humans with knee and hip OA, between 2017 and 2023. Four experts worked independently, checking the records, and assessing content validity and feasibility, writing justification for exclusion. RESULTS: At literature review phase, 575 papers were filtered. After experts' analysis, 59 studies were included, and 44 instruments associated with flare in OA were identified. Most were studies about pain in knee or hip OA (35 %), cultural adaptation of a measure (33 %) or studies investigating psychometric properties of full (16 %) or short form (4 %) instruments. The assessment of domain match and feasibility revealed that 15 instruments were assigned a label of 'yes' or 'uncertain' as to whether or not there was a good match with the domain concept or whether the instrument was considered feasible to use. DISCUSSION: Most identified instruments considered different aspects of pain and the associated discomfort in performing daily activities but did not include the central aspects of flare in OA, i.e. the change of state, nor the additional Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) endorsed domains for OA flare namely stiffness, swelling, psychological aspects, impact of symptoms including fatigue and sleep disturbance. Although it is possible that the period specified to conduct this literature review may have led to some recognized instruments being excluded, this review demonstrates the need for the research community to reach consensus on the best way to measure self-reported flares in future clinical trials and observational studies.

'It's about time'. Dissemination and evaluation of a global health systems strengthening roadmap for musculoskeletal health - insights and future directions.

Actions towards the health-related Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 typically focus on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) associated with premature mortality, with less emphasis on NCDs associated with disability, such as musculoskeletal conditions-the leading contributor to the global burden of disability. Can systems strengthening priorities for an underprioritised NCD be codesigned, disseminated and evaluated? A 'roadmap' for strengthening global health systems for improved musculoskeletal health was launched in 2021. In this practice paper, we outline dissemination efforts for this Roadmap and insights on evaluating its reach, user experience and early adoption. A global network of 22 dissemination partners was established to drive dissemination efforts, focussing on Africa, Asia and Latin America, each supported with a suite of dissemination assets. Within a 6-month evaluation window, 52 Twitter posts were distributed, 2195 visitors from 109 countries accessed the online multilingual Roadmap and 138 downloads of the Roadmap per month were recorded. Among 254 end users who answered a user-experience survey, respondents 'agreed' or 'strongly agreed' the Roadmap was valuable (88.3%), credible (91.2%), useful (90.1%) and usable (85.4%). Most (77.8%) agreed or strongly agreed they would adopt the Roadmap in some way. Collection of real-world adoption case studies allowed unique insights into adoption practices in different contexts, settings and health system levels. Diversity in adoption examples suggests that the Roadmap has value and adoption potential at multiple touchpoints within health systems globally. With resourcing, harnessing an engaged global community and establishing a global network of partners, a systems strengthening tool can be cocreated, disseminated and formatively evaluated.

'I'm hurting, I want to kill myself': rheumatoid arthritis flare is more than a high joint count--an international patient perspective on flare where medical help is sought.

OBJECTIVE: People with RA have episodes of worsening disease activity (flares) that prompt them to seek clinical review or medication change. This study explored patients' perspectives of flare that prompts them to seek medication review. METHODS: Fourteen focus groups across five countries comprised 67 RA patients. Transcripts were analysed by several researchers and a patient, using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Patients use flare for five different scenarios, including flare that prompts medical help-seeking, where six themes were identified. In 'Symptoms and early warnings', pain is intense (wanting to die), constant and persistent and considered a key feature. Systemic features predominate, including fatigue, feeling generally ill (flu-like), physical and cognitive shut-down and social withdrawal. Warning signs (prodrome) comprise fatigue and flu-like symptoms. 'Self-management of intensifying symptoms' includes pacing, heat/cold, rest and increasing medication, often without medical advice. Patients 'Define this as uncontrollable flare' when clusters of unprovoked, persistent symptoms halt their ability to run daily life, until prompted into 'Seeking help when symptoms can't be contained'. Underpinning themes are 'Individual context' (e.g. different symptom clusters) and 'Uncertainty' (e.g. when to seek help). Patients report that the current patient global visual analogue scale (VAS) does not capture flare. CONCLUSION: Patients use flare for multiple events and seek help for complex clusterings of intense, unprovoked symptoms that defy self-management, not necessarily captured in joint counts or global VAS. Flare terminology and definition have implications for clinical practice and trials, therefore further research should establish a professional/patient consensus.

The association between parity and knee cartilage in young women.

OBJECTIVES: There have been no reported studies of the association between parity and cartilage in young individuals. The aim of this study was to describe the association between parity, cartilage volume and cartilage defects in women aged 31-41 years. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 144 women, mean age 36 years and BMI 25 kg/m(2), who were participants in an established prospective study. Parity was assessed using a questionnaire. Knee (medial tibial, lateral tibial and patellar) cartilage volume, cartilage defects (grade 0-4 depending on the severity of cartilage thickness loss at tibial and patellar sites) and tibial bone area were assessed using T1-weighted fat-suppressed MRI. RESULTS: The prevalence of cartilage defects (grade ≥2) in this population was 13%. Parity was associated with a higher risk of cartilage defects at the patellar [prevalence ratio (PR) per birth 1.52, 95% CI 1.05, 2.21; PR parous vs nulliparous 1.93, 95% CI 0.66, 5.65], but not tibial sites, after adjustment for confounders including age, BMI, smoking, physical activity, knee injury and tibial bone area. This association between parity and patellar cartilage defects was stronger for those women who had three or more births (vs nulliparous, PR 5.27, 95% CI 1.39, 20.01). There were no significant associations between parity and cartilage volume. CONCLUSION: Parity was associated with knee cartilage defects primarily at the patellar site in this sample of young women. This association was more apparent with increasing number of live births, suggesting a possible adverse effect of parity on knee cartilage.