The influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on sustainable consumption: an international study.

Background: Sustainable production and consumption are two important issues, which mutually interact. Whereas individuals have little direct influence on the former, they can play a key role on the latter. This paper describes the subject matter of sustainable consumption and outlines its key features. It also describes some international initiatives in this field. Results: By means of an international survey, the study explores the emphasis given to sustainable consumption during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the degree of preparedness in individuals to engage in the purchase of green and sustainably manufactured products. The main results indicate that the pandemic offered an opportunity to promote sustainable consumption; nevertheless, the pandemic alone cannot be regarded as a 'game changer' in this topic. Conclusions: Apart from an online survey with responses from 31 countries, which makes it one of the most representative studies on the topic, a logit model was used to analyse the main variables that affect the probability of pro-environmental consumption behaviour because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper lists some of the technological and social innovations that may be needed, so as to guide more sustainable consumption patterns in a post-pandemic world.

Human development, greenhouse gas emissions and sub-national mitigation burdens: a Brazilian perspective.

International frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation usually disregard country-specific inequalities for the allocation of mitigation burdens. This may hinder low developed regions in a country from achieving development in a socioeconomic perspective, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2). We use observed data (1991-2010) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and a sub-national human development index (MicroHDI, range [0, 1]) for Brazilian microregions to design a framework where regional mitigation burdens are proportional to the MicroHDI, without compromising national mitigation pledges. According to our results, the less developed Brazilian regions have not been basing their development in emission-intensive activities; instead, the most developed regions have. Between 2011 and 2050, Brazilian cumulative emissions from the sectors most correlated with MicroHDI are expected to be 325 Gt CO2eq, of which only 50 Gt are associated with regions of MicroHDI < 0.8. Assuming a national GHG mitigation target of 56.5% in 2050 over 2010 (consistent with limiting global warming to 2 ºC), Brazil would emit 190 Gt CO2eq instead of 325 Gt and the 135 Gt reduction is only accounted for by regions after reaching MicroHDI ≥ 0.8. Allocating environmental restrictions to the high-developed regions leaves ground for the least developed ones to pursue development with fewer restrictions. Our heterogeneous framework represents a fairer allocation of mitigation burdens which could be implemented under the concepts of green economy. This work could be an international reference for addressing both environmental and socioeconomic development in developing countries at sub-national level as emphasized by the SDGs. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-021-00044-9.

[The impact of climate change on leishmaniasis in Brazil]. / Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a leishmaniose no Brasil.

This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

Nitrogen-Use Efficiency, Nitrous Oxide Emissions, and Cereal Production in Brazil: Current Trends and Forecasts.

The agriculture sector has historically been a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. Although the use of synthetic fertilizers is one of the most common widespread agricultural practices, over-fertilization can lead to negative economic and environmental consequences, such as high production costs, depletion of energy resources, and increased GHG emissions. Here, we provide an analysis to understand the evolution of cereal production and consumption of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in Brazil and to correlate N use efficiency (NUE) with economic and environmental losses as N2O emissions. Our results show that the increased consumption of N fertilizers is associated with a large decrease in NUE in recent years. The CO2 eq. of N2O emissions originating from N fertilization for cereal production were approximately 12 times higher in 2011 than in 1970, indicating that the inefficient use of N fertilizers is directly related to environmental losses. The projected N fertilizer forecasts are 2.09 and 2.37 million ton for 2015 and 2023, respectively. An increase of 0.02% per year in the projected NUE was predicted for the same time period. However, decreases in the projected CO2 eq. emissions for future years were not predicted. In a hypothetical scenario, a 2.39% increase in cereal NUE would lead to $ 21 million savings in N fertilizer costs. Thus, increases in NUE rates would lead not only to agronomic and environmental benefits but also to economic improvement.

A social and ecological assessment of tropical land uses at multiple scales: the Sustainable Amazon Network.

Science has a critical role to play in guiding more sustainable development trajectories. Here, we present the Sustainable Amazon Network (Rede Amazônia Sustentável, RAS): a multidisciplinary research initiative involving more than 30 partner organizations working to assess both social and ecological dimensions of land-use sustainability in eastern Brazilian Amazonia. The research approach adopted by RAS offers three advantages for addressing land-use sustainability problems: (i) the collection of synchronized and co-located ecological and socioeconomic data across broad gradients of past and present human use; (ii) a nested sampling design to aid comparison of ecological and socioeconomic conditions associated with different land uses across local, landscape and regional scales; and (iii) a strong engagement with a wide variety of actors and non-research institutions. Here, we elaborate on these key features, and identify the ways in which RAS can help in highlighting those problems in most urgent need of attention, and in guiding improvements in land-use sustainability in Amazonia and elsewhere in the tropics. We also discuss some of the practical lessons, limitations and realities faced during the development of the RAS initiative so far.

Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a leishmaniose no Brasil / The impact of climate change on leishmaniasis in Brazil

Resumo Este estudo buscou verificar como as mudanças climáticas podem afetar a proliferação das leishmanioses no Brasil, em três períodos, 2010-2039, 2040-2079 e 2080-2100 e dois cenários de mudanças climáticas. Realizou-se uma estimação da relação entre temperatura, precipitação e números de internações por leishmaniose e, posteriormente, a equação estimada foi utilizada para prever o impacto da mudança climática na proliferação da doença no Brasil até o fim do século XXI. Os resultados encontrados indicam que a precipitação possui forte relação com a incidência de leishmaniose e as projeções indicam que haverá uma elevação, para o final do século, da quantidade anual de internações por essa doença, em cerca de 15%, em relação a 1992-2002 (cenário base). Em termos regionais, as projeções indicam crescimento em todas as regiões, com exceção do Centro-Oeste. No Sul do país haverá o maior crescimento relativo no número de internações anuais, ao passo que no Nordeste haverá o maior aumento absoluto. No geral, verifica-se que a leishmaniose aumentará sua incidência no país com a mudança climática.

Abstract This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.