Sarcopenic obesity and pre-sarcopenia contribute to frailty in community-dwelling Italian older people: data from the FRASNET study.

BACKGROUND: The ageing process is characterized by a change of body composition with an increase of fat mass and a reduction of muscle mass. Above a certain threshold these alterations configure a condition named sarcopenic obesity (SO). SO is associated with physical frailty in Asian and Brazilian populations. SO impacts on physical frailty in other ethnic groups but its influence on general frailty which is multidimensional and includes cognitive, social and physical factors, remain insufficiently explored in the Italian population. METHODS: Frailty was measured in community dwelling Italian older adults enrolled in the FRASNET study with the frailty index (FI). The FI quantifies frailty as the ratio of the number of present health deficits to the total number of health deficits considered. Regression analyses were performed to assess the association between body composition categories and frailty. Classification and regression tree models were run to evaluate the frailty predictors. RESULTS: One Thousand One Hundred Fourteen participants of the FRASNET study were included in the present analysis. The sample was composed for the 60.5% by females and its median age was 72 years. The median FI score was 0.11 (IQR 0.07-0.20); 234 individuals (21%) were frail (FI ≥ 0.25). SO (B 0.074, 95% C.I. 0.05-0.1, p < 0.001) and pre-sarcopenia (without obesity B 0.03, 95% C.I, 0.007-0.044, p < 0.001, with obesity B 0.11, 95% C.I. 0.05-0.16, p < 0.001) were associated with frailty. Fat mass percentage predicted frailty in people aged 65-70 years whereas, muscle strength predicted general frailty in people aged 70-81 years. CONCLUSION: Pre-sarcopenia and SO represent potentially treatable predictors of frailty.

Predictors and outcomes of delirium in the emergency department during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Milan.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections can be complicated by acute brain failure. We assessed delirium prevalence, predictors and outcomes in COVID-19 ED patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study conducted at the San Raffaele ED (Italy). Patients age >18 years attending the ED between 26 February 2020 and 30 May 2020 and who had a positive molecular nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 were included. The Chart-Based Delirium Identification Instrument (CHART-DEL) was used to retrospectively assess delirium. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate delirium predictors. Univariable binary logistic regression analyses, linear regression analyses and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the association between delirium and clinical outcomes. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted models were then run for the significant predictors of the univariable models. RESULTS: Among the 826 included patients, 123 cases (14.9%) of delirium were retrospectively detected through the CHART-DEL method. Patients with delirium were older (76.9±13.15 vs 61.3±14.27 years, p<0.001) and more frequently living in a long-term health facility (32 (26%) vs 22 (3.1%), p<0.001). Age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001), dementia (OR 17.5, 95% CI 7.27 to 42.16, p<0.001), epilepsy (OR 6.96, 95% CI 2.48 to 19.51, p<0.001) and the number of chronic medications (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.17, p=0.03) were significant predictors of delirium in multivariable analyses. Delirium was associated with increased in-hospital mortality (adjusted HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.55 to 3.03, p<0.001) and with a reduced probability of being discharged home compared with being institutionalised (adjusted OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.61, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Chart review frequently identified ED delirium in patients with COVID-19. Age, dementia, epilepsy and polypharmacy were significant predictors of ED delirium. Delirium was associated with an increased in-hospital mortality and with a reduced probability of being discharged home after hospitalisation. The findings of this single-centre retrospective study require validation in future studies.

Z-drugs and falls in nursing home patients: data from the INCUR study.

BACKGROUND: Z-drugs are the most prescribed treatment for insomnia, but their negative effect on the body sway can increase the risk of falls. AIMS: Evaluating the association between Z-drugs and falls in a resident cohort. METHODS: Prospective observational study using the data collected in the Incidence of pNeumonia and related ConseqUences in nursing home Residents (INCUR) study. RESULTS: During the one-year follow-up, among the 800 participants (median age 87), 93 individuals fell (64 fracturing and 29 without fracturing). Lower calf circumference (adjusted OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-0.97, p = 0.006) and the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (adjusted OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.1-3.05, p = 0.01) predicted falls, whereas the use of Z-drugs (adjusted OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.13-4.94, p = 0.02) and lower body mass index (adjusted OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.84-0.97, p = 0.005) were associated with falls without fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Z-drugs predicted falls without fractures in residents. Alternative strategies to promote sleep in residents should be pursued.

Frailty as a predictor of mortality in COVID-19 patients receiving CPAP for respiratory insufficiency.

OBJECTIVE: Exploring the association between frailty and mortality in a cohort of patients with COVID-19 respiratory insufficiency treated with continuous positive airway pressure. METHODS: Frailty was measured using a Frailty Index (FI) created by using the baseline assessment data on comorbidities and body mass index and baseline blood test results (including pH, lactate dehydrogenase, renal and liver function, inflammatory indexes and anemia). FI > 0.25 identified frail individuals. RESULTS: Among the 159 included individuals (81% men, median age of 68) frailty was detected in 69% of the patients (median FI score 0.3 ± 0.08). Frailty was associated to an increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.02-3.88, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is highly prevalent among patients with COVID-19, predicts poorer outcomes independently of age. A personalization of care balancing the risk and benefit of treatments (especially the invasive ones) in such complex patients is pivotal.

Six-month respiratory outcomes and exercise capacity of COVID-19 acute respiratory failure patients treated with continuous positive airway pressure.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 long-term sequelae are ill-defined since only a few studies have explored the long-term consequences of this disease so far. AIMS: To evaluate the 6-month respiratory outcome and exercise capacity of COVID-19 acute respiratory failure (ARF) patients treated with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) during the first wave of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective observational study included COVID-19 patients with ARF. Interventions included CPAP during hospitalisation and 6-month follow up. Frailty assessment was carried out through frailty index (FI), pO2 /FiO2 during hospitalisation and at follow up, respiratory parameters, 6-min walking test (6MWT) and the modified British Medical Research Council (mMRC) and Borg scale at follow up. RESULTS: More than half of the patients had no dyspnoea according to the mMRC scale. Lower in-hospital pO2 /FiO2 correlated with higher Borg scale levels after 6MWT (ρ 0.27; P 0.04) at the follow-up visit. FI was positively correlated with length of hospitalisation (ρ 0.3; P 0.03) and negatively with the 6MWT distance walked (ρ -0.36; P 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Robust and frail patients with COVID-19 ARF treated with CPAP outside the intensive care unit setting had good respiratory parameters and exercise capacity at 6-month follow up, although more severe patients had slightly poorer respiratory performance compared with patients with higher PaO2 /FiO2 and lower FI.

Malnutrition and physical performance in nursing home residents: results from the INCUR study.

We investigated the association between the risk of malnutrition, assessed through the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF), and physical performance, measured with the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), in nursing home residents. Moreover, we evaluated which MNA-SF items were most related to the SPPB and the association of the MNA-SF with each SPPB subtest. A total of 499 older people enrolled in the Incidence of pNeumonia and related ConseqUences in nursing home Residents cohort study were examined. Higher scores of MNA-SF were associated with better physical performance (in particular with gait speed). Food intake deficiency, mobility impairment, and recent psychological stress or acute disease were the items of the MNA-SF most associated with the SPPB. In nursing home residents, the MNA-SF and three of its sub-items were significantly correlated with physical performance, independently of potential confounders. In particular, the association was evident for the gait speed subtask of the SPPB.

Interventions to prevent, delay or reverse frailty in older people: a journey towards clinical guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Age-related frailty is a multidimensional dynamic condition associated with adverse patient outcomes and high costs for health systems. Several interventions have been proposed to tackle frailty. This correspondence article describes the journey through the development of evidence- and consensus-based guidelines on interventions aimed at preventing, delaying or reversing frailty in the context of the FOCUS (Frailty Management Optimisation through EIP-AHA Commitments and Utilisation of Stakeholders Input) project (664367-FOCUS-HP-PJ-2014). The rationale, framework, processes and content of the guidelines are described. MAIN TEXT: The guidelines were framed into four questions - one general and three on specific groups of interventions - all including frailty as the primary outcome of interest. Quantitative and qualitative studies and reviews conducted in the context of the FOCUS project represented the evidence base. We followed the GRADE Evidence-to-Decision frameworks based on assessment of whether the problem is a priority, the magnitude of the desirable and undesirable effects, the certainty of the evidence, stakeholders' values, the balance between desirable and undesirable effects, the resource use, and other factors like acceptability and feasibility. Experts in the FOCUS consortium acted as panellists in the consensus process. Overall, we eventually recommended interventions intended to affect frailty as well as its course and related outcomes. Specifically, we recommended (1) physical activity programmes or nutritional interventions or a combination of both; (2) interventions based on tailored care and/or geriatric evaluation and management; and (3) interventions based on cognitive training (alone or in combination with exercise and nutritional supplementation). The panel did not support interventions based on hormone treatments or problem-solving therapy. However, all our recommendations were weak (provisional) due to the limited available evidence and based on heterogeneous studies of limited quality. Furthermore, they are conditional to the consideration of participant-, organisational- and contextual/cultural-related facilitators or barriers. There is insufficient evidence in favour of or against other types of interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We provided guidelines based on quantitative and qualitative evidence, adopting methodological standards, and integrating relevant stakeholders' inputs and perspectives. We identified the need for further studies of a higher methodological quality to explore interventions with the potential to affect frailty.

Sarcopenia and swallowing disorders in older people.

Aging is accompanied by several changes which may affect swallowing function. The beginning of these changes, termed presbyphagia, still captures a preserved swallowing function, although burdened by the consequences of the physiological aging process. Several stressors (including diseases and medications) can easily trigger the disruption of this (increasingly weak) equilibrium and lead to overt dysphagia. It is noteworthy that the swallowing dysfunction may be aggravated by the sarcopenic process, characterizing the so-called "sarcopenic dysphagia", potentially responsible for several health-related negative outcomes. The assessment and management of sarcopenic dysphagia largely rely on the evaluation and integrated treatment of both constituting conditions (i.e., sarcopenia and dysphagia). The management of dysphagia requires a multidimensional approach and can be designed as either compensatory (aimed at producing immediate benefit for the patient through postural adjustments, swallowing maneuvers, and diet modifications) or rehabilitative. Interestingly, some evidence suggests that resistance training traditionally applied to tackle the lower extremity in sarcopenia may be simultaneously beneficial for sarcopenic dysphagia. If these preliminary results (discussed in the present review article) will be confirmed, the systemic beneficial effects of physical exercise will be indirectly demonstrated. This will also support the need of promoting healthy lifestyle in all sarcopenic individuals (thus potentially at risk of dysphagia).

Adapted physical activity to promote active and healthy ageing: the PoliFIT pilot randomized waiting list-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical activities can prevent disability in elderly. AIMS: To evaluate the feasibility and impact on physical function of an adapted physical activity (APA) programme in community-dwelling people of ≥ 70 years old. METHODS: Non-blinded randomized trial with a waiting list control. Eligible people (n = 186) were randomly allocated to 4 months of weekly APA classes of 45 min or in control group performing usual lifestyle activity. PRIMARY OUTCOME: time to walk 400 m. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: short physical performance battery (SPPB), pain (visual analogic scale, McGill Questionnaire), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), handgrip strength, accesses to Emergency Department and falls. RESULTS: Participants were allocated to the intervention (n = 130) or to the control (n = 56) group (80% females aged 75.6 ± 4.6 years). We found statistically significant difference in the time to walk 400 m only in the subgroup intervention with the lower performance at baseline (p for interaction 0.031). SPPB improved and VAS decreased more in the intervention group. No significant differences for McGill questionnaire, ODI, GDS, accesses to ER and falls were showed. DISCUSSION: Despite the good rate of attendance (71%) and satisfaction (97%), our APA programme was associated with no benefit on the time to walk 400 m and small benefit on SPPB and VAS. The efficacy of the intervention was likely limited by the short duration and low intensity and by the already good performance of our population at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: We designed this initiative as a pilot study intending to implement research of this type in the future.

Sustainability in Internal Medicine: A Year-Long Ward-Wide Observational Study.

Population aging and multimorbidity challenge health system sustainability, but the role of assistance-related variables rather than individual pathophysiological factors in determining patient outcomes is unclear. To identify assistance-related determinants of sustainable hospital healthcare, all patients hospitalised in an Internal Medicine Unit (n = 1073) were enrolled in a prospective year-long observational study and split 2:1 into a training (n = 726) and a validation subset (n = 347). Demographics, comorbidities, provenance setting, estimates of complexity (cumulative illness rating scale, CIRS: total, comorbidity, CIRS-CI, and severity, CIRS-SI subscores) and intensity of care (nine equivalents of manpower score, NEMS) were analysed at individual and Unit levels along with variations in healthcare personnel as determinants of in-hospital mortality, length of stay and nosocomial infections. Advanced age, higher CIRS-SI, end-stage cancer, and the absence of immune-mediated diseases were correlated with higher mortality. Admission from nursing homes or intensive care units, dependency on activity of daily living, community- or hospital-acquired infections, oxygen support and the number of exits from the Unit along with patient/physician ratios were associated with prolonged hospitalisations. Upper gastrointestinal tract disorders, advanced age and higher CIRS-SI were associated with nosocomial infections. In addition to demographic variables and multimorbidity, physician number and assistance context affect hospitalisation outcomes and healthcare sustainability.

Micronized/ultramicronized palmitoylethanolamide improves depression and fatigue in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may lead to neuropsychiatric sequelae. Palmitoylethanolamide (PEA) is an anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective amide used in depressive syndromes. Here we investigate whether micronized/ultramicronized (m/um) PEA improves neuropsychiatric sequelae in COVID-19 survivors. Patients evaluated at our post-COVID-19 outpatient clinic between February and August 2021 and presenting neuropsychiatric manifestations (n = 98) were offered treatment with m/umPEA 600 mg twice daily for 3 months. Those accepting m/umPEA therapy (n = 57) were compared with those who did not (n = 41), in terms of depression, fatigue, chronic pain and subjective well-being, through validated scales administered pre- and posttreatment. The two groups did not differ in terms of demographics, comorbidities, psychiatric history, antidepressant therapy, acute COVID-19 severity and baseline neuropsychiatric status. Patients receiving m/umPEA showed a greater improvement in depression and fatigue (both P < 0.05). Conversely, no association was found with changes in chronic pain or subjective well-being. At multivariable logistic regression, m/umPEA predicted neuropsychiatric improvement independently of age, sex and baseline neuropsychiatric status. Worse pretreatment fatigue and subjective well-being identified those who most likely benefited from treatment. In conclusion, despite its retrospective nature, our study suggests that m/umPEA may improve depression and fatigue in COVID-19 survivors, justifying future research in this setting.

Exploring the Association between Delirium and Malnutrition in COVID-19 Survivors: A Geriatric Perspective.

Older individuals face an elevated risk of developing geriatric syndromes when confronted with acute stressors like COVID-19. We assessed the connection between in-hospital delirium, malnutrition, and frailty in a cohort of COVID-19 survivors. Patients aged ≥65, hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in Milan for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, were enrolled and screened for in-hospital delirium with the 4 'A's Test (4AT) performed twice daily (morning and evening) during hospital stay. Malnutrition was assessed with the malnutrition universal screening tool (MUST) at hospital admission and with the mini-nutritional assessment short-form (MNA-SF) one month after hospital discharge. Frailty was computed with the frailty index one month after hospital discharge. Fifty patients (median age 78.5, 56% male) were enrolled. At hospital admission, 10% were malnourished. The 13 patients (26%) who developed delirium were frailer (7 vs. 4), experienced a higher in-hospital mortality (5 vs. 3), and were more malnourished one month after discharge (3 of the 4 patients with delirium vs. 6 of the 28 patients without delirium who presented at follow up). The 4AT scores correlated with the MNA-SF scores (r = -0.55, p = 0.006) and frailty (r = 0.35, p = 0.001). Frailty also correlated with MUST (r = 0.3, p = 0.04), MNA-SF (r = -0.42, p = 0.02), and hospitalization length (r = 0.44, p = 0.001). Delirium, malnutrition, and frailty are correlated in COVID-19 survivors. Screening for these geriatric syndromes should be incorporated in routine clinical practice.

Biomarkers of aging in frailty and age-associated disorders: State of the art and future perspective.

According to the Geroscience concept that organismal aging and age-associated diseases share the same basic molecular mechanisms, the identification of biomarkers of age that can efficiently classify people as biologically older (or younger) than their chronological (i.e. calendar) age is becoming of paramount importance. These people will be in fact at higher (or lower) risk for many different age-associated diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, neurodegeneration, cancer, etc. In turn, patients suffering from these diseases are biologically older than healthy age-matched individuals. Many biomarkers that correlate with age have been described so far. The aim of the present review is to discuss the usefulness of some of these biomarkers (especially soluble, circulating ones) in order to identify frail patients, possibly before the appearance of clinical symptoms, as well as patients at risk for age-associated diseases. An overview of selected biomarkers will be discussed in this regard, in particular we will focus on biomarkers related to metabolic stress response, inflammation, and cell death (in particular in neurodegeneration), all phenomena connected to inflammaging (chronic, low-grade, age-associated inflammation). In the second part of the review, next-generation markers such as extracellular vesicles and their cargos, epigenetic markers and gut microbiota composition, will be discussed. Since recent progresses in omics techniques have allowed an exponential increase in the production of laboratory data also in the field of biomarkers of age, making it difficult to extract biological meaning from the huge mass of available data, Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches will be discussed as an increasingly important strategy for extracting knowledge from raw data and providing practitioners with actionable information to treat patients.

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and fractures in older nursing home residents: Data from the INCUR study.

Depression and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) reduce bone mass and increase fracture risk. We analyzed the association between SSRI use and fractures development in nursing homes residents during a one-year prospective observational study. Sixty-four of the 800 participants developed a fracture during the one-year follow-up. Individuals who developed fractures used SSRIs more often than residents who did not (40.6% vs 28.7%, p =0.045). SSRIs were associated with fractures (adjusted OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.04 - 2.98, p = 0.036). A regular medication review should be performed to reduce inappropriate prescriptions and related adverse consequences.

Prevalence of Long COVID-19 Symptoms After Hospital Discharge in Frail and Robust Patients.

Background: A motley postacute symptomatology may develop after COVID-19, irrespective of the acute disease severity, age, and comorbidities. Frail individuals have reduced physiological reserves and manifested a worse COVID-19 course, during the acute setting. However, it is still unknown, whether frailty may subtend some long COVID-19 manifestations. We explored the prevalence of long COVID-19 disturbs in COVID-19 survivals. Methods: This was an observational study. Patients aged 65 years or older were followed-up 1, 3, and 6 months after hospitalization for COVID-19 pneumonia. Results: A total of 382 patients were enrolled. Frail patients were more malnourished (median Mini Nutritional Assessment Short Form score 8 vs. 9, p = 0.001), at higher risk of sarcopenia [median Strength, Assistance with walking, Rising from a chair, Climbing stairs, and Falls (SARC-F) score 3 vs. 1.5, p = 0.003], and manifested a worse physical performance [median Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) score 10 vs. 11, p = 0.0007] than robust individuals, after hospital discharge following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia. Frailty was significantly associated with: (i) confusion, as a presenting symptom of COVID-19 [odds ratio (OR) 77.84, 95% CI 4.23-1432.49, p = 0.003]; (ii) malnutrition (MNA-SF: adjusted B -5.63, 95% CI -8.39 to -2.87, p < 0.001), risk of sarcopenia (SARC-F: adjusted B 9.11, 95% CI 3.10-15.13, p = 0.003), impaired muscle performance (SPPB: B -3.47, 95% CI -6.33 to -0.61, p = 0.02), complaints in mobility (adjusted OR 1674200.27, 95% CI 4.52-619924741831.25, p = 0.03), in self-care (adjusted OR 553305.56, 95% CI 376.37-813413358.35, p < 0.001), and in performing usual activities of daily living (OR 71.57, 95% CI 2.87-1782.53, p = 0.009) at 1-month follow-up; (iii) dyspnea [modified Medical Research Council (mMRC): B 4.83, 95% CI 1.32-8.33, p = 0.007] and risk of sarcopenia (SARC-F: B 7.12, 95% CI 2.17-12.07, p = 0.005) at 3-month follow-up; and (iv) difficulties in self-care (OR 2746.89, 95% CI 6.44-1172310.83, p = 0.01) at the 6-month follow-up. In a subgroup of patients (78 individuals), the prevalence of frailty increased at the 1-month follow-up compared to baseline (p = 0.009). Conclusion: The precocious identification of frail COVID-19 survivors, who manifest more motor and respiratory complaints during the follow-up, could improve the long-term management of these COVID-19 sequelae.

Evaluation of Muscle Mass and Stiffness with Limb Ultrasound in COVID-19 Survivors.

BACKGROUND: acute illnesses, like COVID-19, can act as a catabolic stimulus on muscles. So far, no study has evaluated muscle mass and quality through limb ultrasound in post-COVID-19 patients. METHODS: cross sectional observational study, including patients seen one month after hospital discharge for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The patients underwent a multidimensional evaluation. Moreover, we performed dominant medial gastrocnemius ultrasound (US) to characterize their muscle mass and quality. RESULTS: two hundred fifty-nine individuals (median age 67, 59.8% males) were included in the study. COVID-19 survivors with reduced muscle strength had a lower muscle US thickness (1.6 versus 1.73 cm, p =0.02) and a higher muscle stiffness (87 versus 76.3, p = 0.004) compared to patients with normal muscle strength. Also, patients with reduced Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) scores had a lower muscle US thickness (1.3 versus 1.71 cm, p = 0.01) and a higher muscle stiffness (104.9 versus 81.07, p = 0.04) compared to individuals with normal SPPB scores. The finding of increased muscle stiffness was also confirmed in patients with a pathological value (≥ 4) at the sarcopenia screening tool SARC-F (103.0 versus 79.55, p < 0.001). Muscle stiffness emerged as a significant predictor of probable sarcopenia (adjusted OR 1.02, 95% C.I. 1.002 - 1.04, p = 0.03). The optimal ultrasound cut-offs for probable sarcopenia were 1.51 cm for muscle thickness (p= 0.017) and 73.95 for muscle stiffness (p = 0.004). DISCUSSION: we described muscle ultrasound characteristics in post COVID-19 patients. Muscle ultrasound could be an innovative tool to assess muscle mass and quality in this population. Our preliminary findings need to be confirmed by future studies comparing muscle ultrasound with already validated techniques for measuring muscle mass and quality.

A Nomogram-Based Model to Predict Respiratory Dysfunction at 6 Months in Non-Critical COVID-19 Survivors.

Objective: To assess the prevalence of respiratory sequelae of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors at 6 months after hospital discharge and develop a model to identify at-risk patients. Patients and Methods: In this prospective cohort study, hospitalized, non-critical COVID-19 patients evaluated at 6-month follow-up between 26 August, 2020 and 16 December, 2020 were included. Primary outcome was respiratory dysfunction at 6 months, defined as at least one among tachypnea at rest, percent predicted 6-min walking distance at 6-min walking test (6MWT) ≤ 70%, pre-post 6MWT difference in Borg score ≥ 1 or a difference between pre- and post-6MWT oxygen saturation ≥ 5%. A nomogram-based multivariable logistic regression model was built to predict primary outcome. Validation relied on 2000-resample bootstrap. The model was compared to one based uniquely on degree of hypoxemia at admission. Results: Overall, 316 patients were included, of whom 118 (37.3%) showed respiratory dysfunction at 6 months. The nomogram relied on sex, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, degree of hypoxemia at admission, and non-invasive ventilation. It was 73.0% (95% confidence interval 67.3-78.4%) accurate in predicting primary outcome and exhibited minimal departure from ideal prediction. Compared to the model including only hypoxemia at admission, the nomogram showed higher accuracy (73.0 vs 59.1%, P < 0.001) and greater net-benefit in decision curve analyses. When the model included also respiratory data at 1 month, it yielded better accuracy (78.2 vs. 73.2%) and more favorable net-benefit than the original model. Conclusion: The newly developed nomograms accurately identify patients at risk of persistent respiratory dysfunction and may help inform clinical priorities.