Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant that was first detected in the UK in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than pre-existing variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity2. Here we analyse a dataset that links 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 deaths associated with COVID-19 in England from 1 November 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because mutations in this lineage prevent PCR amplification of the spike (S) gene target (known as S gene target failure (SGTF)1). On the basis of 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% confidence interval, 39-72%) higher than in cases without SGTF after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, residence in a care home, the local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55-69-year-old man increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.0%) within 28 days of a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7 is 61% (42-82%) higher than with pre-existing variants. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.

Genome-scale clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats screen identifies nucleotide metabolism as an actionable therapeutic vulnerability in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common malignancy that develops in patients with ataxia-telangiectasia, a cancer-predisposing inherited syndrome characterized by inactivating germline ATM mutations. ATM is also frequently mutated in sporadic DLBCL. To investigate lymphomagenic mechanisms and lymphoma-specific dependencies underlying defective ATM, we applied ribonucleic acid (RNA)-seq and genome-scale loss-offunction clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/Cas9 screens to systematically interrogate B-cell lymphomas arising in a novel murine model (Atm-/-nu-/-) with constitutional Atm loss, thymic aplasia but residual T-cell populations. Atm-/-nu-/-lymphomas, which phenotypically resemble either activated B-cell-like or germinal center Bcell-like DLBCL, harbor a complex karyotype, and are characterized by MYC pathway activation. In Atm-/-nu-/-lymphomas, we discovered nucleotide biosynthesis as a MYCdependent cellular vulnerability that can be targeted through the synergistic nucleotidedepleting actions of mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and the WEE1 inhibitor, adavosertib (AZD1775). The latter is mediated through a synthetically lethal interaction between RRM2 suppression and MYC dysregulation that results in replication stress overload in Atm-/-nu-/-lymphoma cells. Validation in cell line models of human DLBCL confirmed the broad applicability of nucleotide depletion as a therapeutic strategy for MYC-driven DLBCL independent of ATM mutation status. Our findings extend current understanding of lymphomagenic mechanisms underpinning ATM loss and highlight nucleotide metabolism as a targetable therapeutic vulnerability in MYC-driven DLBCL.

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

Global Landscape of Encephalitis: Key Priorities to Reduce Future Disease Burden.

Encephalitis affects people across the lifespan, has high rates of mortality and morbidity, and results in significant neurological sequelae with long-term consequences to quality of life and wider society. The true incidence is currently unknown due to inaccurate reporting systems. The disease burden of encephalitis is unequally distributed across the globe being highest in low- and middle-income countries where resources are limited. Here countries often lack diagnostic testing, with poor access to essential treatments and neurological services, and limited surveillance and vaccination programs. Many types of encephalitis are vaccine preventable, whereas others are treatable with early diagnosis and appropriate management. In this viewpoint, we provide a narrative review of key aspects of diagnosis, surveillance, treatment, and prevention of encephalitis and highlight priorities for public health, clinical management, and research, to reduce the disease burden.

Addressing vaccine-preventable encephalitis in vulnerable populations.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Vaccinations have been pivotal in lowering the global disease burden of vaccine-preventable encephalitides, including Japanese encephalitis, tick-borne encephalitis, measles encephalitis, and rabies encephalitis, among others. RECENT FINDINGS: Populations vulnerable to vaccine-preventable infections that may lead to encephalitis include those living in endemic and rural areas, military members, migrants, refugees, international travelers, younger and older persons, pregnant women, the immunocompromised, outdoor, healthcare and laboratory workers, and the homeless. There is scope for improving the availability and distribution of vaccinations, vaccine equity, surveillance of vaccine-preventable encephalitides, and public education and information. SUMMARY: Addressing these gaps in vaccination strategies will allow for improved vaccination coverage and lead to better health outcomes for those most at risk for vaccine-preventable encephalitis.

TLR9 expression in chronic lymphocytic leukemia identifies a promigratory subpopulation and novel therapeutic target.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) remains incurable despite B-cell receptor-targeted inhibitors revolutionizing treatment. This suggests that other signaling molecules are involved in disease escape mechanisms and resistance. Toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9) is a promising candidate that is activated by unmethylated cytosine guanine dinucleotide-DNA. Here, we show that plasma from patients with CLL contains significantly more unmethylated DNA than plasma from healthy control subjects (P < .0001) and that cell-free DNA levels correlate with the prognostic markers CD38, ß2-microglobulin, and lymphocyte doubling time. Furthermore, elevated cell-free DNA was associated with shorter time to first treatment (hazard ratio, 4.0; P = .003). We also show that TLR9 expression was associated with in vitro CLL cell migration (P < .001), and intracellular endosomal TLR9 strongly correlated with aberrant surface expression (sTLR9; r = 0.9). In addition, lymph node-derived CLL cells exhibited increased sTLR9 (P = .016), and RNA-sequencing of paired sTLR9hi and sTLR9lo CLL cells revealed differential transcription of genes involved in TLR signaling, adhesion, motility, and inflammation in sTLR9hi cells. Mechanistically, a TLR9 agonist, ODN2006, promoted CLL cell migration (P < .001) that was mediated by p65 NF-κB and STAT3 transcription factor activation. Importantly, autologous plasma induced the same effects, which were reversed by a TLR9 antagonist. Furthermore, high TLR9 expression promoted engraftment and rapid disease progression in a NOD/Shi-scid/IL-2Rγnull mouse xenograft model. Finally, we showed that dual targeting of TLR9 and Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) was strongly synergistic (median combination index, 0.2 at half maximal effective dose), which highlights the distinct role for TLR9 signaling in CLL and the potential for combined targeting of TLR9 and BTK as a more effective treatment strategy in this incurable disease.

Chronic pain and cognitive impairment: a cross-sectional study in people living with HIV.

Cognitive impairment and chronic pain are amongst the most prevalent neurological sequelae of HIV infection, yet little is understood about the potential bidirectional relationship between the two conditions. Cognitive dysfunction can occur in chronic pain populations whilst those with cognitive impairment can display modified responses to experimentally induced painful stimuli. To date, this has not been explored in HIV cohorts.This study aimed to identify any contribution of chronic pain to cognitive impairment in HIV and to determine differences in pain characteristics between those with and without cognitive dysfunction.This was an observational cohort study involving people living with HIV (n = 148) in the United Kingdom. Participants underwent validated questionnaire-based measurement of pain severity, interference and symptom quality as well as conditioned pain modulation and quantitative sensory testing. All participants completed a computer-based cognitive function assessment.Fifty-seven participants met the criteria for cognitive impairment and 73 for chronic pain. The cognitive impairment group had a higher prevalence of chronic pain (p = 0.004) and reported more neuropathic symptoms (p = 0.001). Those with chronic pain performed less well in emotional recognition and verbal learning domains. The interaction identified between chronic pain and cognitive dysfunction warrants further exploration to identify causal links or shared pathology.

BOD1L Is Required to Suppress Deleterious Resection of Stressed Replication Forks.

Recognition and repair of damaged replication forks are essential to maintain genome stability and are coordinated by the combined action of the Fanconi anemia and homologous recombination pathways. These pathways are vital to protect stalled replication forks from uncontrolled nucleolytic activity, which otherwise causes irreparable genomic damage. Here, we identify BOD1L as a component of this fork protection pathway, which safeguards genome stability after replication stress. Loss of BOD1L confers exquisite cellular sensitivity to replication stress and uncontrolled resection of damaged replication forks, due to a failure to stabilize RAD51 at these forks. Blocking DNA2-dependent resection, or downregulation of the helicases BLM and FBH1, suppresses both catastrophic fork processing and the accumulation of chromosomal damage in BOD1L-deficient cells. Thus, our work implicates BOD1L as a critical regulator of genome integrity that restrains nucleolytic degradation of damaged replication forks.

Encephalitis: diagnosis, management and recent advances in the field of encephalitides.

Encephalitis describes inflammation of the brain parenchyma, typically caused by either an infectious agent or through an autoimmune process which may be postinfectious, paraneoplastic or idiopathic. Patients can present with a combination of fever, alterations in behaviour, personality, cognition and consciousness. They may also exhibit focal neurological deficits, seizures, movement disorders and/or autonomic instability. However, it can sometimes present non-specifically, and this combined with its many causes make it a difficult to manage neurological syndrome. Despite improved treatments in some forms of encephalitides, encephalitis remains a global concern due to its high mortality and morbidity. Prompt diagnosis and administration of specific and supportive management options can lead to better outcomes. Over the last decade, research in encephalitis has led to marked developments in the understanding, diagnosis and management of encephalitis. In parallel, the number of autoimmune encephalitis syndromes has rapidly expanded and clinically characteristic syndromes in association with pathogenic autoantibodies have been defined. By focusing on findings presented at the Encephalitis Society's conference in December 2021, this article reviews the causes, clinical manifestations and management of encephalitis and integrate recent advances and challenges of research into encephalitis.

Encephalitis: diagnosis, management and recent advances in the field of encephalitides.

Encephalitis describes inflammation of the brain parenchyma, typically caused by either an infectious agent or through an autoimmune process which may be postinfectious, paraneoplastic or idiopathic. Patients can present with a combination of fever, alterations in behaviour, personality, cognition and consciousness. They may also exhibit focal neurological deficits, seizures, movement disorders and/or autonomic instability. However, it can sometimes present non-specifically, and this combined with its many causes make it a difficult to manage neurological syndrome. Despite improved treatments in some forms of encephalitides, encephalitis remains a global concern due to its high mortality and morbidity. Prompt diagnosis and administration of specific and supportive management options can lead to better outcomes. Over the last decade, research in encephalitis has led to marked developments in the understanding, diagnosis and management of encephalitis. In parallel, the number of autoimmune encephalitis syndromes has rapidly expanded and clinically characteristic syndromes in association with pathogenic autoantibodies have been defined. By focusing on findings presented at the Encephalitis Society's conference in December 2021, this article reviews the causes, clinical manifestations and management of encephalitis and integrate recent advances and challenges of research into encephalitis.

Aciclovir-induced neurotoxicity.

Aciclovir-induced neurotoxicity results from the accumulation of aciclovir and its metabolite 9-carboxymethoxymethylguanine (CMMG). It occurs predominantly in older patients with impaired renal function and is characterised by a combination of confusion and psychiatric changes. Seizures, myoclonus and dysarthria may also occur. Critically, peritoneal dialysis has little effect on reversing the toxic effects of aciclovir. We describe a woman in her 70s with renal failure who developed confusion and seizures after receiving aciclovir. She was ultimately diagnosed with aciclovir-induced neurotoxicity, confirmed by an elevated serum CMMG concentration. This condition is likely to be underdiagnosed and the neurologist's primary challenge is differentiating aciclovir-induced neurotoxicity from viral encephalitis.

Correction: COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815.].

Integrative analysis of spontaneous CLL regression highlights genetic and microenvironmental interdependency in CLL.

Spontaneous regression is a recognized phenomenon in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) but its biological basis remains unknown. We undertook a detailed investigation of the biological and clinical features of 20 spontaneous CLL regression cases incorporating phenotypic, functional, transcriptomic, and genomic studies at sequential time points. All spontaneously regressed tumors were IGHV-mutated with no restricted IGHV usage or B-cell receptor (BCR) stereotypy. They exhibited shortened telomeres similar to nonregressing CLL, indicating prior proliferation. They also displayed low Ki-67, CD49d, cell-surface immunoglobulin M (IgM) expression and IgM-signaling response but high CXCR4 expression, indicating low proliferative activity associated with poor migration to proliferation centers, with these features becoming increasingly marked during regression. Spontaneously regressed CLL displayed a transcriptome profile characterized by downregulation of metabolic processes as well as MYC and its downstream targets compared with nonregressing CLL. Moreover, spontaneous regression was associated with reversal of T-cell exhaustion features including reduced programmed cell death 1 expression and increased T-cell proliferation. Interestingly, archetypal CLL genomic aberrations including HIST1H1B and TP53 mutations and del(13q14) were found in some spontaneously regressing tumors, but genetic composition remained stable during regression. Conversely, a single case of CLL relapse following spontaneous regression was associated with increased BCR signaling, CLL proliferation, and clonal evolution. These observations indicate that spontaneously regressing CLL appear to undergo a period of proliferation before entering a more quiescent state, and that a complex interaction between genomic alterations and the microenvironment determines disease course. Together, the findings provide novel insight into the biological processes underpinning spontaneous CLL regression, with implications for CLL treatment.

Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: An update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era.

Mathematical models have played a key role in understanding the spread of directly-transmissible infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as the effectiveness of public health responses. As the risk of contracting directly-transmitted infections depends on who interacts with whom, mathematical models often use contact matrices to characterise the spread of infectious pathogens. These contact matrices are usually generated from diary-based contact surveys. However, the majority of places in the world do not have representative empirical contact studies, so synthetic contact matrices have been constructed using more widely available setting-specific survey data on household, school, classroom, and workplace composition combined with empirical data on contact patterns in Europe. In 2017, the largest set of synthetic contact matrices to date were published for 152 geographical locations. In this study, we update these matrices with the most recent data and extend our analysis to 177 geographical locations. Due to the observed geographic differences within countries, we also quantify contact patterns in rural and urban settings where data is available. Further, we compare both the 2017 and 2020 synthetic matrices to out-of-sample empirically-constructed contact matrices, and explore the effects of using both the empirical and synthetic contact matrices when modelling physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the synthetic contact matrices show qualitative similarities to the contact patterns in the empirically-constructed contact matrices. Models parameterised with the empirical and synthetic matrices generated similar findings with few differences observed in age groups where the empirical matrices have missing or aggregated age groups. This finding means that synthetic contact matrices may be used in modelling outbreaks in settings for which empirical studies have yet to be conducted.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 outbreaks still occur in English care homes despite the interventions in place. METHODS: We developed a stochastic compartmental model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an English care home. We quantified the outbreak risk with baseline non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) already in place, the role of community prevalence in driving outbreaks, and the relative contribution of all importation routes into a fully susceptible care home. We also considered the potential impact of additional control measures in care homes with and without immunity, namely: increasing staff and resident testing frequency, using lateral flow antigen testing (LFD) tests instead of polymerase chain reaction (PCR), enhancing infection prevention and control (IPC), increasing the proportion of residents isolated, shortening the delay to isolation, improving the effectiveness of isolation, restricting visitors and limiting staff to working in one care home. We additionally present a Shiny application for users to apply this model to their facility of interest, specifying care home, outbreak and intervention characteristics. RESULTS: The model suggests that importation of SARS-CoV-2 by staff, from the community, is the main driver of outbreaks, that importation by visitors or from hospitals is rare, and that the past testing strategy (monthly testing of residents and daily testing of staff by PCR) likely provides negligible benefit in preventing outbreaks. Daily staff testing by LFD was 39% (95% 18-55%) effective in preventing outbreaks at 30 days compared to no testing. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the frequency of testing in staff and enhancing IPC are important to preventing importations to the care home. Further work is needed to understand the impact of vaccination in this population, which is likely to be very effective in preventing outbreaks.

Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in European countries as per data up to 21 November 2021.

We estimate the potential remaining COVID-19 hospitalisation and death burdens in 19 European countries by estimating the proportion of each country's population that has acquired immunity to severe disease through infection or vaccination. Our results suggest many European countries could still face high burdens of hospitalisations and deaths, particularly those with lower vaccination coverage, less historical transmission and/or older populations. Continued non-pharmaceutical interventions and efforts to achieve high vaccination coverage are required in these countries to limit severe COVID-19 outcomes.

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends. The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses. This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

The emerging spectrum of COVID-19 neurology: clinical, radiological and laboratory findings.

Preliminary clinical data indicate that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with neurological and neuropsychiatric illness. Responding to this, a weekly virtual coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) neurology multi-disciplinary meeting was established at the National Hospital, Queen Square, in early March 2020 in order to discuss and begin to understand neurological presentations in patients with suspected COVID-19-related neurological disorders. Detailed clinical and paraclinical data were collected from cases where the diagnosis of COVID-19 was confirmed through RNA PCR, or where the diagnosis was probable/possible according to World Health Organization criteria. Of 43 patients, 29 were SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive and definite, eight probable and six possible. Five major categories emerged: (i) encephalopathies (n = 10) with delirium/psychosis and no distinct MRI or CSF abnormalities, and with 9/10 making a full or partial recovery with supportive care only; (ii) inflammatory CNS syndromes (n = 12) including encephalitis (n = 2, para- or post-infectious), acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (n = 9), with haemorrhage in five, necrosis in one, and myelitis in two, and isolated myelitis (n = 1). Of these, 10 were treated with corticosteroids, and three of these patients also received intravenous immunoglobulin; one made a full recovery, 10 of 12 made a partial recovery, and one patient died; (iii) ischaemic strokes (n = 8) associated with a pro-thrombotic state (four with pulmonary thromboembolism), one of whom died; (iv) peripheral neurological disorders (n = 8), seven with Guillain-Barré syndrome, one with brachial plexopathy, six of eight making a partial and ongoing recovery; and (v) five patients with miscellaneous central disorders who did not fit these categories. SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a wide spectrum of neurological syndromes affecting the whole neuraxis, including the cerebral vasculature and, in some cases, responding to immunotherapies. The high incidence of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, particularly with haemorrhagic change, is striking. This complication was not related to the severity of the respiratory COVID-19 disease. Early recognition, investigation and management of COVID-19-related neurological disease is challenging. Further clinical, neuroradiological, biomarker and neuropathological studies are essential to determine the underlying pathobiological mechanisms that will guide treatment. Longitudinal follow-up studies will be necessary to ascertain the long-term neurological and neuropsychological consequences of this pandemic.

Effect of Pediatric Influenza Vaccination on Antibiotic Resistance, England and Wales.

Vaccines against viral infections have been proposed to reduce prescribing of antibiotics and thereby help control resistant bacterial infections. However, by combining published data sources, we predict that pediatric live attenuated influenza vaccination in England and Wales will not substantially reduce antibiotic consumption or adverse health outcomes associated with antibiotic resistance.

Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods. METHODS: We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and 'shielding' (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty. RESULTS: We predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2-4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age. CONCLUSIONS: In African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.