Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the general population and in high-risk groups: the ECHOES study.

AIMS: To establish the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population in the UK, and in those with risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: The prevalence of AF on electrocardiography was established in prospectively selected groups: 3960 randomly selected from the population, aged 45+; 782 with a previous diagnosis of heart failure; and 1062 with a record of myocardial infarction, hypertension, angina, or diabetes. Patients were also assessed clinically and with echocardiography. Mortality was tracked for 8 years. Atrial fibrillation was found in 78 of the random population sample (2.0%). Prevalence was 1.6% in women and 2.4% in men, rising with age from 0.2% in those aged 45-54 to 8.0% in those aged 75 and older. Half of all cases were in patients aged 75 and older. Only 23 of the 78 (29.5%) of those in AF took warfarin. Of the 782 patients, 175 (22.4%) with a diagnosis of heart failure were in AF, with normal left ventricular function in 95 (54.3%) of these. Atrial fibrillation was found in 14 of the 244 (5.7%) of those with a history of myocardial infarction, 15 of the 388 (3.9%) of those with hypertension, 15 of the 321 (4.7%) of those with angina, and 11 of the 208 (5.3%) of diabetics. Adjusting for age and sex, mortality was 1.57 times higher for those in AF. CONCLUSION: Atrial fibrillation is common in the elderly and those with clinical risk factors. Screening these groups would identify many with AF. Use of anticoagulation was low at the time of the initial assessments in the late 1990s; practice may have changed recently.

Population health status of South Asian and African-Caribbean communities in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Population health status scores are routinely used to inform economic evaluation and evaluate the impact of disease and/or treatment on health. It is unclear whether the health status in black and minority ethnic groups are comparable to these population health status data. The aim of this study was to evaluate health-status in South Asian and African-Caribbean populations. METHODS: Cross-sectional study recruiting participants aged ≥ 45 years (September 2006 to July 2009) from 20 primary care centres in Birmingham, United Kingdom.10,902 eligible subjects were invited, 5,408 participated (49.6%). 5,354 participants had complete data (49.1%) (3442 South Asian and 1912 African-Caribbean). Health status was assessed by interview using the EuroQoL EQ-5D. RESULTS: The mean EQ-5D score in South Asian participants was 0.91 (standard deviation (SD) 0.18), median score 1 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.848 to 1) and in African-Caribbean participants the mean score was 0.92 (SD 0.18), median 1 (IQR 1 to 1). Compared with normative data from the UK general population, substantially fewer African-Caribbean and South Asian participants reported problems with mobility, usual activities, pain and anxiety when stratified by age resulting in higher average health status estimates than those from the UK population. Multivariable modelling showed that decreased health-related quality of life (HRQL) was associated with increased age, female gender and increased body mass index. A medical history of depression, stroke/transient ischemic attack, heart failure and arthritis were associated with substantial reductions in HRQL. CONCLUSIONS: The reported HRQL of these minority ethnic groups was substantially higher than anticipated compared to UK normative data. Participants with chronic disease experienced significant reductions in HRQL and should be a target for health intervention.

The Risks of Ranking: Revisiting Graphical Perception to Model Individual Differences in Visualization Performance.

Graphical perception studies typically measure visualization encoding effectiveness using the error of an "average observer", leading to canonical rankings of encodings for numerical attributes: e.g., position area angle volume. Yet different people may vary in their ability to read different visualization types, leading to variance in this ranking across individuals not captured by population-level metrics using "average observer" models. One way we can bridge this gap is by recasting classic visual perception tasks as tools for assessing individual performance, in addition to overall visualization performance. In this paper we replicate and extend Cleveland and McGill's graphical comparison experiment using Bayesian multilevel regression, using these models to explore individual differences in visualization skill from multiple perspectives. The results from experiments and modeling indicate that some people show patterns of accuracy that credibly deviate from the canonical rankings of visualization effectiveness. We discuss implications of these findings, such as a need for new ways to communicate visualization effectiveness to designers, how patterns in individuals' responses may show systematic biases and strategies in visualization judgment, and how recasting classic visual perception tasks as tools for assessing individual performance may offer new ways to quantify aspects of visualization literacy. Experiment data, source code, and analysis scripts are available at the following repository: https://osf.io/8ub7t/?view_only=9be4798797404a4397be3c6fc2a68cc0.

Detection of unknown atrial fibrillation by prolonged ECG monitoring in an all-comer patient cohort and association with clinical and Holter variables.

OBJECTIVES: Prolonged ECG monitoring is clinically useful to detect unknown atrial fibrillation (AF) in stroke survivors. The diagnostic yield of prolonged ECG monitoring in other patient populations is less well characterised. We therefore studied the diagnostic yield of prolonged Holter ECG monitoring for AF in an unselected patient cohort referred from primary care or seen in a teaching hospital. METHODS: We analysed consecutive 7-day ECG recordings in unselected patients referred from different medical specialities and assessed AF detection rates by indication, age and comorbidities. RESULTS: Seven-day Holter ECGs (median monitoring 127.5 hours, IQR 116 to 152) were recorded in 476 patients (mean age 54.6 (SD 17.0) years, 55.9% female) without previously known AF, requested to evaluate palpitations (n=241), syncope (n=99), stroke or transient ischaemic attack (n=75), dizziness (n=29) or episodic chest pain (n=32). AF was newly detected in 42/476 (8.8%) patients. Oral anticoagulation was initiated in 40/42 (95.2%) patients with newly detected AF. Multivariate logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex and monitoring duration found four clinical parameters to be associated with newly detected AF: hypertension OR=2.54, (1.08 to 8.61) (adjusted OR (95% CI)), p=0.034; previous stroke or TIA OR=4.14 (1.81 to 13.01), p=0.001; left-sided valvular heart disease OR=5.07 (2.48 to 18.70), p<0.001 and palpitations OR=2.86, (1.33 to 10.44), p=0.015. CONCLUSIONS: Open multispeciality access to prolonged ECG monitoring, for example, as part of integrated, cross-sector AF care, can accelerate diagnosis of AF and increase adequate use of oral anticoagulation, especially in older and symptomatic patients with comorbidities.

A randomized trial of the addition of home-based exercise to specialist heart failure nurse care: the Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation study for patients with Congestive Heart Failure (BRUM-CHF) study.

AIMS: Supervised exercise can benefit selected patients with heart failure, however the effectiveness of home-based exercise remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a home-based exercise programme in addition to specialist heart failure nurse care. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a randomized controlled trial of a home-based walking and resistance exercise programme plus specialist nurse care (n=84) compared with specialist nurse care alone (n=85) in a heart failure population in the West Midlands, UK. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLwHFQ) at 6 and 12 months. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: composite of death, hospital admission with heart failure or myocardial infarction; psychological well-being; generic quality of life (EQ-5D); exercise capacity. There was no statistically significant difference between groups in the MLwHFQ at 6 month (mean, 95% CI) (-2.53, -7.87 to 2.80) and 12 month (-0.55, -5.87 to 4.76) follow-up or secondary outcomes with the exception of a higher EQ-5D score (0.11, 0.04 to 0.18) at 6 months and lower Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale score (-1.07, -2.00 to -0.14) at 12 months, in favour of the exercise group. At 6 months, the control group showed deterioration in physical activity, exercise capacity, and generic quality of life. CONCLUSION: Home-based exercise training programmes may not be appropriate for community-based heart failure patients.

Rationale and study design of a cross sectional study documenting the prevalence of Heart Failure amongst the minority ethnic communities in the UK: the E-ECHOES Study (Ethnic--Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study).

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Studies to date have not established the prevalence heart failure amongst the minority ethnic community in the UK. T'he aim of the E-ECHOES (Ethnic--Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study)is to establish, for the first time, the community prevalence and severity of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) and heart failure amongst the South Asian and Black African-Caribbean ethnic groups in the UK. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a community based cross-sectional population survey of a sample of South Asian (i.e. those originating from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) and Black African-Caribbean male and female subjects aged 45 years and over. Data collection undertaken using a standardised protocol comprising a questionnaire incorporating targeted clinical history taking, physical examination, and investigations with resting electrocardiography and echocardiography; and blood sampling with consent. This is the largest study on heart failure amongst these ethnic groups. Full data collection started in September 2006 and will be completed by August 2009. DISCUSSION: The E-ECHOES study will enable the planning and delivery of clinically and cost-effective treatment of this common and debilitating condition within these communities. In addition it will increase knowledge of the aetiology and management of heart failure within minority ethnic communities.

The cost effectiveness of REACH-HF and home-based cardiac rehabilitation compared with the usual medical care for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: A decision model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The REACH-HF (Rehabilitation EnAblement in CHronic Heart Failure) trial found that the REACH-HF home-based cardiac rehabilitation intervention resulted in a clinically meaningful improvement in disease-specific health-related quality of life in patients with reduced ejection fraction heart failure (HFrEF). The aims of this study were to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of the addition of REACH-HF intervention or home-based cardiac rehabilitation to usual care compared with usual care alone in patients with HFrEF. DESIGN AND METHODS: A Markov model was developed using a patient lifetime horizon and integrating evidence from the REACH-HF trial, a systematic review/meta-analysis of randomised trials, estimates of mortality and hospital admission and UK costs at 2015/2016 prices. Taking a UK National Health and Personal Social Services perspective we report the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, assessing uncertainty using probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In base case analysis, the REACH-HF intervention was associated with per patient mean QALY gain of 0.23 and an increased mean cost of £400 compared with usual care, resulting in a cost per QALY gained of £1720. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 78% probability that REACH-HF is cost effective versus usual care at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Results were similar for home-based cardiac rehabilitation versus usual care. Sensitivity analyses indicate the findings to be robust to changes in model assumptions and parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Our cost-utility analyses indicate that the addition of the REACH-HF intervention and home-based cardiac rehabilitation programmes are likely to be cost-effective treatment options versus usual care alone in patients with HFrEF.

The effects and costs of home-based rehabilitation for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: The REACH-HF multicentre randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac rehabilitation improves health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and reduces hospitalizations in patients with heart failure, but international uptake of cardiac rehabilitation for heart failure remains low. DESIGN AND METHODS: The aim of this multicentre randomized trial was to compare the REACH-HF (Rehabilitation EnAblement in CHronicHeart Failure) intervention, a facilitated self-care and home-based cardiac rehabilitation programme to usual care for adults with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The study primary hypothesis was that the addition of the REACH-HF intervention to usual care would improve disease-specific HRQoL (Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire (MLHFQ)) at 12 months compared with usual care alone. RESULTS: The study recruited 216 participants, predominantly men (78%), with an average age of 70 years and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 34%. Overall, 185 (86%) participants provided data for the primary outcome. At 12 months, there was a significant and clinically meaningful between-group difference in the MLHFQ score of -5.7 points (95% confidence interval -10.6 to -0.7) in favour of the REACH-HF intervention group ( p = 0.025). With the exception of patient self-care ( p < 0.001) there was no significant difference in other secondary outcomes, including clinical events ( p > 0.05) at follow-up compared with usual care. The mean cost of the REACH-HF intervention was £418 per participant. CONCLUSIONS: The novel REACH-HF home-based facilitated intervention for HFrEF was clinically superior in disease-specific HRQoL at 12 months and offers an affordable alternative to traditional centre-based programmes to address current low cardiac rehabilitation uptake rates for heart failure.

A randomised controlled trial of a facilitated home-based rehabilitation intervention in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and their caregivers: the REACH-HFpEF Pilot Study.

INTRODUCTION: Home-based cardiac rehabilitation may overcome suboptimal rates of participation. The overarching aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the novel Rehabilitation EnAblement in CHronic Hear Failure (REACH-HF) rehabilitation intervention for patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and their caregivers. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were randomised 1:1 to REACH-HF intervention plus usual care (intervention group) or usual care alone (control group). REACH-HF is a home-based comprehensive self-management rehabilitation programme that comprises patient and carer manuals with supplementary tools, delivered by trained healthcare facilitators over a 12 week period. Patient outcomes were collected by blinded assessors at baseline, 3 months and 6 months postrandomisation and included health-related quality of life (primary) and psychological well-being, exercise capacity, physical activity and HF-related hospitalisation (secondary). Outcomes were also collected in caregivers.We enrolled 50 symptomatic patients with HF from Tayside, Scotland with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥45% (mean age 73.9 years, 54% female, 100% white British) and 21 caregivers. Study retention (90%) and intervention uptake (92%) were excellent. At 6 months, data from 45 patients showed a potential direction of effect in favour of the intervention group, including the primary outcome of Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire total score (between-group mean difference -11.5, 95% CI -22.8 to 0.3). A total of 11 (4 intervention, 7 control) patients experienced a hospital admission over the 6 months of follow-up with 4 (control patients) of these admissions being HF-related. Improvements were seen in a number intervention caregivers' mental health and burden compared with control. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the feasibility and rationale for delivering the REACH-HF facilitated home-based rehabilitation intervention for patients with HFpEF and their caregivers and progression to a full multicentre randomised clinical trial to test its clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78539530.

Evaluation of B-type natriuretic peptide for validation of a heart failure register in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction is difficult on clinical grounds alone. We sought to determine the accuracy of a heart failure register in a single primary care practice, and to examine the usefulness of b-type (or brain) natriuretic peptide (BNP) assay for this purpose. METHODS: A register validation audit in a single general practice in the UK was carried out. Of 217 patients on the heart failure register, 56 of 61 patients who had not been previously investigated underwent 12-lead electrocardiography and echocardiography within the practice site. Plasma was obtained for BNP assay from 45 subjects, and its performance in identifying echocardiographic abnormalities consistent with heart failure was assessed by analysing area under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: 30/217 were found to have no evidence to suggest heart failure on notes review and were probably incorrectly coded. 70/112 who were previously investigated were confirmed to have heart failure. Of those not previously investigated, 24/56 (42.9%) who attended for the study had echocardiographic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. A further 8 (14.3%) had normal systolic function, but had left ventricular hypertrophy or significant valve disease. Overall, echocardiographic features consistent with heart failure were found in only 102/203 (50.2%). BNP was poor at discriminating those with and without systolic dysfunction (area under ROC curve 0.612), and those with and without any significant echocardiographic abnormality (area under ROC curve 0.723). CONCLUSION: In this practice, half of the registered patients did not have significant cardiac dysfunction. On-site echocardiography identifies patients who can be removed from the heart failure register. The use of BNP assay to determine which patients require echocardiography is not supported by these data.

Home-based exercise rehabilitation in addition to specialist heart failure nurse care: design, rationale and recruitment to the Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation study for patients with congestive heart failure (BRUM-CHF): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Exercise has been shown to be beneficial for selected patients with heart failure, but questions remain over its effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and uptake in a real world setting. This paper describes the design, rationale and recruitment for a randomised controlled trial that will explore the effectiveness and uptake of a predominantly home-based exercise rehabilitation programme, as well as its cost-effectiveness and patient acceptability. METHODS/DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial comparing specialist heart failure nurse care plus a nurse-led predominantly home-based exercise intervention against specialist heart failure nurse care alone in a multiethnic city population, served by two NHS Trusts and one primary care setting, in the United Kingdom.169 English speaking patients with stable heart failure, defined as systolic impairment (ejection fraction < or = 40%). with one or more hospital admissions with clinical heart failure or New York Heart Association (NYHA) II/III within previous 24-months were recruited.Main outcome measures at 1 year: Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire, incremental shuttle walk test, death or admission with heart failure or myocardial infarction, health care utilisation and costs. Interviews with purposive samples of patients to gain qualitative information about acceptability and adherence to exercise, views about their treatment, self-management of their heart failure and reasons why some patients declined to participate. The records of 1639 patients managed by specialist heart failure services were screened, of which 997 (61%) were ineligible, due to ejection fraction>40%, current NYHA IV, no admission or NYHA II or more within the previous 2 years, or serious co-morbidities preventing physical activity. 642 patients were contacted: 289 (45%) declined to participate, 183 (39%) had an exclusion criterion and 169 (26%) agreed to randomisation. DISCUSSION: Due to safety considerations for home-exercise less than half of patients treated by specialist heart failure services were eligible for the study. Many patients had co-morbidities preventing exercise and others had concerns about undertaking an exercise programme.

MICE or NICE? An economic evaluation of clinical decision rules in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Detection and treatment of heart failure (HF) can improve quality of life and reduce premature mortality. However, symptoms such as breathlessness are common in primary care, have a variety of causes and not all patients require cardiac imaging. In systems where healthcare resources are limited, ensuring those patients who are likely to have HF undergo appropriate and timely investigation is vital. DESIGN: A decision tree was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of using the MICE (Male, Infarction, Crepitations, Edema) decision rule compared to other diagnostic strategies to identify HF patients presenting to primary care. METHODS: Data from REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram), a HF diagnostic accuracy study, was used to determine which patients received the correct diagnosis decision. The model adopted a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. RESULTS: The current recommended National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines for identifying patients with HF was the most cost-effective option with a cost of £4400 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained compared to a "do nothing" strategy. That is, patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of HF should be referred straight for echocardiography if they had a history of myocardial infarction or if their NT-proBNP level was ≥400pg/ml. The MICE rule was more expensive and less effective than the other comparators. Base-case results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first cost-utility analysis comparing HF diagnostic strategies for symptomatic patients. Current guidelines in England were the most cost-effective option for identifying patients for confirmatory HF diagnosis. The low number of HF with Reduced Ejection Fraction patients (12%) in the REFER patient population limited the benefits of early detection.

Optimising self-care support for people with heart failure and their caregivers: development of the Rehabilitation Enablement in Chronic Heart Failure (REACH-HF) intervention using intervention mapping.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish the support needs of people with heart failure and their caregivers and develop an intervention to improve their health-related quality of life. METHODS: We used intervention mapping to guide the development of our intervention. We identified "targets for change" by synthesising research evidence and international guidelines and consulting with patients, caregivers and health service providers. We then used behaviour change theory, expert opinion and a taxonomy of behaviour change techniques, to identify barriers to and facilitators of change and to match intervention strategies to each target. A patient and public involvement group helped to identify patient and caregiver needs, refine the intervention objectives and strategies and deliver training to the intervention facilitators. A feasibility study (ISRCTN25032672) involving 23 patients, 12 caregivers and seven trained facilitators at four sites assessed the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention and quality of delivery and generated ideas to help refine the intervention. RESULTS: The Rehabilitation Enablement in Chronic Heart Failure (REACH-HF) intervention is a comprehensive self-care support programme comprising the "Heart Failure Manual", a choice of two exercise programmes for patients, a "Family and Friends Resource" for caregivers, a "Progress Tracker" tool and a facilitator training course. The main targets for change are engaging in exercise training, monitoring for symptom deterioration, managing stress and anxiety, managing medications and understanding heart failure. Secondary targets include managing low mood and smoking cessation. The intervention is facilitated by trained healthcare professionals with specialist cardiac experience over 12 weeks, via home and telephone contacts. The feasibility study found high levels of satisfaction and engagement with the intervention from facilitators, patients and caregivers. Intervention fidelity analysis and stakeholder feedback suggested that there was room for improvement in several areas, especially in terms of addressing caregivers' needs. The REACH-HF materials were revised accordingly. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a comprehensive, evidence-informed, theoretically driven self-care and rehabilitation intervention that is grounded in the needs of patients and caregivers. A randomised controlled trial is underway to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the REACH-HF intervention in people with heart failure and their caregivers.

Rheumatoid disease and ischaemic heart disease: insights from pathophysiology and vascular biology.

Rheumatoid disease (RD) is a multisystem inflammatory disorder, which is associated with an increased cardiovascular mortality, thought to be due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD). The precise mechanisms causing increased IHD in RD are unclear. However, there is increasing recognition that atherosclerosis is another chronic inflammatory condition, which shares several pathophysiological features with RD. For example, endothelial damage/dysfunction, platelet activation, hypercoagulability and angiogenesis are well-recognised in both disease processes. Furthermore, RD may influence traditional risk factors such as dyslipidaemia. Although the exact reasons for the increased ischaemic burden are unclear, physicians should place a high priority upon reducing cardiovascular risk in sufferers of RD. This review summarises factors that might contribute to the pathogenesis of IHD in RD. Discussion will focus upon features shared by atherosclerotic and rheumatoid processes, as well as possible interactions between RD and conventional IHD risk factors.

Hypertension to heart failure: new developmental strategies do not cross a clinical and therapeutic divide.

Management of hypertension has evolved steadily through 25 years of major clinical trials results modifying both the definition of hypertension and clinical management strategies. Trials experience in heart failure is much less extensive given the far smaller therapeutic market and traditionally often followed on the establishment of an agent or class of therapy in hypertension. Separate product profile development in heart failure is rare. Large outcome trials in heart failure are markedly smaller than those in hypertension and have tended to be confined to the last 15 years or so. There are clear examples of agents developed and successful in clinical use in both conditions but more recently the divergence of trials results in the two conditions has shown that comparable efficacy is no longer something which can be taken for granted. This review considers the past successes and more recent contrasts which have emerged in these traditional areas of pharmacological development.

Drug development and the importance of ethnicity: lessons from heart failure management and implications for hypertension.

Heart failure is a common condition, associated with both poor prognosis and poor quality of life. In contrast to all other cardiovascular diseases, the prevalence of heart failure is increasing in the western world, and is likely to continue to do so as the population ages. In the UK, a significant proportion of patients with heart failure come from South Asian and African Caribbean ethnic groups. A large body of evidence exists that there may be epidemiological and pathophysiological differences between patients with heart failure from different ethnic groups. Treatments such as ACE inhibitors, which are now part of standard heart failure therapy, have an evidence base consisting of trials in patients of almost exclusively white ethnicity. Such treatments may not be equally effective in patients from other ethnic groups. This review will discuss the current evidence for heart failure management with respect to ethnicity, and consider the implications for future drug development and implications for antihypertensive therapy.

Heart failure--the importance of ethnicity.

Heart failure is a major public health problem in the Western world. Aetiological factors involved in its development include hypertension, diabetes, and ischaemic heart disease--all of which differ in prevalence, and possibly mechanism, between patients of differing ethnicity. Unfortunately, epidemiological and therapeutic trials have involved almost exclusively white populations, and evidence from these trials cannot necessarily be assumed to be generalisable to populations that include high proportions of patients from other ethnic origins. This review will discuss the mechanistic and therapeutic differences that exist in heart failure between those of European origin, and patients from the major ethnic minority groups of the UK.

An 8-year follow-up study of acute admissions with heart failure in a multiethnic population.

In 1994, we reported a cross-sectional survey of acute heart failure admissions to a city centre hospital serving a multiethnic population and found ethnic differences in aetiological factors and short-term (in-patient) mortality. We analysed long-term mortality data for this original survey cohort after 8 years' follow-up. At 8 years' follow-up, the total mortality was 90.5% amongst Europeans and 87.0% amongst non-Europeans (log rank test, P=0.0705). The non-European patients had significantly better survival at all time points until 6 years, after which the survival curves start to converge. In univariate analysis, age <75.6 years (that is, the median age of the whole cohort), use of beta-blockers, use of ACE inhibitors, and absence of atrial fibrillation were significantly associated with increased survival. In addition, patients who had had an echocardiographic examination had significantly prolonged survival when compared to those who did not. Using a Cox multiple regression analysis, age, renal impairment, atrial fibrillation, absence of echocardiography, absence of beta-blockers or ACE inhibitor use (and not ethnicity) remained significant predictors of mortality at 8 years. While this follow-up study has suggested that survival following admission for acutely decompensated heart failure is not different between different ethnic groups when corrected for age, it is clear from the younger age of heart failure patients from ethnic minority groups and the relatively high prevalence, that the burden of heart failure is greater in these populations. Future observational and therapeutic trials in heart failure should include sufficient numbers of participants from ethnic minority groups to ensure that the results can be applied to the population at risk.

Observational longitudinal cohort study to determine progression to heart failure in a screened community population: the Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Extension (ECHOES-X) study.

OBJECTIVES: Rescreen a large community cohort to examine the progression to heart failure over time and the role of natriuretic peptide testing in screening. DESIGN: Observational longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: 16 socioeconomically diverse practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: Participants from the original Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening (ECHOES) study were invited to attend for rescreening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of heart failure at rescreening overall and for each original ECHOES subgroup. Test performance of N Terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) levels at different thresholds for screening. RESULTS: 1618 of 3408 participants underwent screening which represented 47% of survivors and 26% of the original ECHOES cohort. A total of 176 (11%, 95% CI 9.4% to 12.5%) participants were classified as having heart failure at rescreening; 103 had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) and 73 had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF). Sixty-eight out of 1232 (5.5%, 95% CI 4.3% to 6.9%) participants who were recruited from the general population over the age of 45 and did not have heart failure in the original study, had heart failure on rescreening. An NT-proBNP cut-off of 400 pg/mL had sensitivity for a diagnosis of heart failure of 79.5% (95% CI 72.4% to 85.5%) and specificity of 87% (95% CI 85.1% to 88.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Rescreening identified new cases of HFREF and HFPEF. Progression to heart failure poses a significant threat over time. The natriuretic peptide cut-off level for ruling out heart failure must be low enough to ensure cases are not missed at screening.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cardiac function amongst minority ethnic groups in the UK: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical thyroid disease is associated with abnormal cardiovascular haemodynamics and increased risk of heart failure. The burden of raised/low thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels amongst South Asian (SA) and African-Caribbean (AC) minority groups in the UK is not well defined. Given that these groups are particularly susceptible to CVD, we hypothesised that STD would reflect abnormal cardiac function and heightened cardiovascular risk in these ethnic groups. METHODS: We examined SA (n=1111, 56% male, mean age 57.6 yrs) and AC (n=763, 44% male, mean age 59.2 yrs) participants from a large heart failure screening study. Euthyroidism is defined as TSH (0.4 - 4.9 mlU/l), subclinical hypothyroidism is defined as a raised TSH with normal serum free thyroxine (FT4) concentrations (9-19 pmol/l). Subclinical hyperthyroidism is defined as a low TSH with both FT4 and free triiodothyronine (FT3) concentrations within range (2.6-5.7 pmol/l). RESULTS: Across ethnic groups, prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism was 2.9% (95% CI 2.1-3.7), and of hyperthyroidism was 2.0% (1.4-2.7). Hyperthyroidism was more common amongst SA compared to AC (2.8% vs. 0.9%, P=0.017), while rates of subclinical hypothyroidism were similar. On multivariate analysis of variations in subclinical thyroid function, ethnicity was not independently significant. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of subclinical thyroid disorders amongst SA and AC minority groups in Britain reflects levels reported in other populations. The clinical cardiovascular significance of subclinical thyroid disease is unclear, and it does not appear to be ethnically specific.