Cause-specific mortality for 240 causes in China during 1990-2013: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: China has experienced a remarkable epidemiological and demographic transition during the past three decades. Far less is known about this transition at the subnational level. Timely and accurate assessment of the provincial burden of disease is needed for evidence-based priority setting at the local level in China. METHODS: Following the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we have systematically analysed all available demographic and epidemiological data sources for China at the provincial level. We developed methods to aggregate county-level surveillance data to inform provincial-level analysis, and we used local data to develop specific garbage code redistribution procedures for China. We assessed levels of and trends in all-cause mortality, causes of death, and years of life lost (YLL) in all 33 province-level administrative units in mainland China, all of which we refer to as provinces, for the years between 1990 and 2013. FINDINGS: All provinces in mainland China have made substantial strides to improve life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2013. Increases ranged from 4.0 years in Hebei province to 14.2 years in Tibet. Improvements in female life expectancy exceeded those in male life expectancy in all provinces except Shanghai, Macao, and Hong Kong. We saw significant heterogeneity among provinces in life expectancy at birth and probability of death at ages 0-14, 15-49, and 50-74 years. Such heterogeneity is also present in cause of death structures between sexes and provinces. From 1990 to 2013, leading causes of YLLs changed substantially. In 1990, 16 of 33 provinces had lower respiratory infections or preterm birth complications as the leading causes of YLLs. 15 provinces had cerebrovascular disease and two (Hong Kong and Macao) had ischaemic heart disease. By 2013, 27 provinces had cerebrovascular disease as the leading cause, five had ischaemic heart disease, and one had lung cancer (Hong Kong). Road injuries have become a top ten cause of death in all provinces in mainland China. The most common non-communicable diseases, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cancers (liver, stomach, and lung), contributed much more to YLLs in 2013 compared with 1990. INTERPRETATION: Rapid transitions are occurring across China, but the leading health problems and the challenges imposed on the health system by epidemiological and demographic change differ between groups of Chinese provinces. Localised health policies need to be implemented to tackle the diverse challenges faced by local health-care systems. FUNDING: China National Science & Technology Pillar Program 2013 (2013BAI04B02) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]). INTERPRETATION: Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

The burden of cancer in Mexico, 1990-2013.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze mortality and incidence for 28 cancers by deprivation status, age and sex from 1990 to 2013. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data and methodological approaches provided by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2013) were used. RESULTS: Trends from 1990 to 2013 show important changes in cancer epidemiology in Mexico. While some cancers show a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality (lung, cervical) others emerge as relevant health priorities (prostate, breast, stomach, colorectal and liver cancer). Age standardized incidence and mortality rates for all cancers are higher in the northern states while the central states show a decreasing trend in the mortality rate. The analysis show that infection related cancers like cervical or liver cancer play a bigger role in more deprived states and that cancers with risk factors related to lifestyle like colorectal cancer are more common in less marginalized states. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of cancer in Mexico shows complex regional patterns by age, sex, types of cancer and deprivation status. Creation of a national cancer registry is crucial.

US Spending on Personal Health Care and Public Health, 1996-2013.

Importance: US health care spending has continued to increase, and now accounts for more than 17% of the US economy. Despite the size and growth of this spending, little is known about how spending on each condition varies by age and across time. Objective: To systematically and comprehensively estimate US spending on personal health care and public health, according to condition, age and sex group, and type of care. Design and Setting: Government budgets, insurance claims, facility surveys, household surveys, and official US records from 1996 through 2013 were collected and combined. In total, 183 sources of data were used to estimate spending for 155 conditions (including cancer, which was disaggregated into 29 conditions). For each record, spending was extracted, along with the age and sex of the patient, and the type of care. Spending was adjusted to reflect the health condition treated, rather than the primary diagnosis. Exposures: Encounter with US health care system. Main Outcomes and Measures: National spending estimates stratified by condition, age and sex group, and type of care. Results: From 1996 through 2013, $30.1 trillion of personal health care spending was disaggregated by 155 conditions, age and sex group, and type of care. Among these 155 conditions, diabetes had the highest health care spending in 2013, with an estimated $101.4 billion (uncertainty interval [UI], $96.7 billion-$106.5 billion) in spending, including 57.6% (UI, 53.8%-62.1%) spent on pharmaceuticals and 23.5% (UI, 21.7%-25.7%) spent on ambulatory care. Ischemic heart disease accounted for the second-highest amount of health care spending in 2013, with estimated spending of $88.1 billion (UI, $82.7 billion-$92.9 billion), and low back and neck pain accounted for the third-highest amount, with estimated health care spending of $87.6 billion (UI, $67.5 billion-$94.1 billion). The conditions with the highest spending levels varied by age, sex, type of care, and year. Personal health care spending increased for 143 of the 155 conditions from 1996 through 2013. Spending on low back and neck pain and on diabetes increased the most over the 18 years, by an estimated $57.2 billion (UI, $47.4 billion-$64.4 billion) and $64.4 billion (UI, $57.8 billion-$70.7 billion), respectively. From 1996 through 2013, spending on emergency care and retail pharmaceuticals increased at the fastest rates (6.4% [UI, 6.4%-6.4%] and 5.6% [UI, 5.6%-5.6%] annual growth rate, respectively), which were higher than annual rates for spending on inpatient care (2.8% [UI, 2.8%-2.8%] and nursing facility care (2.5% [UI, 2.5%-2.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Modeled estimates of US spending on personal health care and public health showed substantial increases from 1996 through 2013; with spending on diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and low back and neck pain accounting for the highest amounts of spending by disease category. The rate of change in annual spending varied considerably among different conditions and types of care. This information may have implications for efforts to control US health care spending.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

The Global Burden of Cancer 2013.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. FINDINGS: In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.

Evaluating causes of death and morbidity in Iran, global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2010.

BACKGROUND: we aimed to recap and highlight the major results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 by mortality and morbidity to clarify the current health priorities and challenges in Iran. METHODS: We estimated Iran's mortality and burden of 289 diseases with 67 risk factors and 1160 sequelae, which were used to clinically present each disease and its disability or cause of death. We produced several measures to report health loss and status: all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost due to death (YLL), healthy years of life lost due to disability (YLD), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy, for three time periods: 1990, 2005, and 2010. RESULTS: We found out that life expectancy at birth was 71.6 years in men and 77.8 years in women. Almost 350 thousand deaths occurred in both sexes and all age groups in 2010. In both males and females and all age groups, ischemic heart disease was the main cause of death, claiming about 90 thousand lives. The main contributors to DALYs were: ischemic heart disease (9.1%), low back pain (9.0%), road injuries (7.3%), and unipolar depressive disorders (6.3%). The main causes of death under 5 years of age included: congenital anomalies (22.4%), preterm birth complications (18.3%), and other neonatal disorders (13.5%). The main causes of death among 15 - 49 year olds in both sexes included: injuries (23.6%) and ischemic heart disease (12.7%) The highest rates of YLDs were observed among 70+ year olds for both sexes (27,365 per 100,000), mainly due to low back pain, osteoarthritis, diabetes, falls, and major depressive disorder. The main risk factors to which deaths were attributable among children under 5 years included: suboptimal breast feeding, ambient PM pollution, tobacco smoking, and underweight. The most important risk factors among 15 to 49 year olds were: dietary risks, high blood pressure, high body mass index, physical inactivity, smoking, and ambient PM pollution. The pattern was similar among 50+ year olds. CONCLUSION: Although non-communicable diseases had the greatest burden in 2010, the challenge of communicable and maternal diseases for health system is not over yet. Diet and physiological risk factors appear to be the most important targets for public health policy in Iran. Moreover, Iranians would greatly benefit from effective strategies to prevent injury and musculoskeletal disorders and expand mental care. Persistent improvement is possible by strengthening the health information system to monitor the population health and evaluate current programs.

Health transition in Iran toward chronic diseases based on results of Global Burden of Disease 2010.

BACKGROUND: Drawing on the results of the country-level Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study, we attempted to investigate the drivers of change in the healthcare system in terms of mortality and morbidity due to diseases, injuries, and risk factors for the two decades from 1990 to 2010. METHODS: We decomposed trends in mortality, cause of death, years of life lost due to disability, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy, health-adjusted life expectancy, and risk factors into the contribution of total increase in population size, aging of the population, and changes in age-specific and sex-specific rates. RESULTS: We observed a decrease in age-specific mortality rate for both sexes, with a higher rate for women. The ranking of causes of death and their corresponding number of years of life lost remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010. However, the percentages of change indicate patterns of reduction for most causes, such as ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, stomach cancer, lower respiratory infections, and congenital anomalies. The number of years lost due to disability caused by diabetes and drug use disorders has significantly increased in the last two decades. Major causes of DALYs, such as injuries, interpersonal violence, and suicide, showed increasing trends, while rates of communicable diseases, neonatal disorders, and nutritional deficiencies have declined significantly. Life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy increased for both sexes by approximately 7 years, with the highest rate of increase pertaining to females over the age 30. CONCLUSIONS: Time trend information presented in this paper can be used to evaluate problems and policies specific to medical conditions or risk factors. Despite recent improvements, implementing policies to reduce the number of deaths and years of life lost due to road traffic injury remains the highest priority for Iranian policymakers. Immediate action by Iranian researchers is required to match Iran's decreasing mortality rate due to liver and stomach cancers to a rate comparable to the global level. Prevention and treatment plans for mental disorders, such as major depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, and particularly drug use disorders, should be considered in reforms of the health, education, and judiciary systems in Iran.

Population health and burden of disease profile of Iran among 20 countries in the region: from Afghanistan to Qatar and Lebanon.

BACKGROUND: Population health and disease profiles are diverse across Iran's neighboring countries. Borrowing the results of the country-level Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study (GBD 2010), we aim to compare Iran with 19 countries in terms of an important set of population health and disease metrics. These countries include those neighboring Iran and a few other countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. METHODS: We show the pattern of health transition across the comparator countries from 1990 through 2010. We use classic GBD metrics measured for the year 2010 to indicate the rank of Iran among these nations. The metrics include disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost as a result of premature death (YLLs), years of life lost due to disability (YLDs), health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), and age-standardized death rate (ASD). RESULTS: Considerable and uniform transition from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMMN) conditions to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) was seen between 1990 and 2010. On average, ischemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, and road injuries were the three principal causes of YLLs, while low back pain and major depressive disorders were the top causes of YLDs in these countries. Iran ranked 13th in HALE and 12th in ASD. The function of Iran's health care, measured by DALYs, was somewhat in the middle of the HALE spectrum for the comparator countries. This intermediate position becomes rather highlighted when Afghanistan, as outlier, is taken out of the comparison. CONCLUSION: Effective policies to reduce NCDs need to be formulated and implemented through an integrated health care system. Our comparison shows that Iran can learn from the experience of a number of these countries to devise and execute the required strategies.

The burden of cancer in Mexico, 1990-2013 / La carga del cáncer en México, 1990-2013

Abstract: Objective: To analyze mortality and incidence for 28 cancers by deprivation status, age and sex from 1990 to 2013. Materials and methods: The data and methodological approaches provided by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2013) were used. Results: Trends from 1990 to 2013 show important changes in cancer epidemiology in Mexico. While some cancers show a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality (lung, cervical) others emerge as relevant health priorities (prostate, breast, stomach, colorectal and liver cancer). Age standardized incidence and mortality rates for all cancers are higher in the northern states while the central states show a decreasing trend in the mortality rate. The analysis show that infection related cancers like cervical or liver cancer play a bigger role in more deprived states and that cancers with risk factors related to lifestyle like colorectal cancer are more common in less marginalized states. Conclusions: The burden of cancer in Mexico shows complex regional patterns by age, sex, types of cancer and deprivation status. Creation of a national cancer registry is crucial.

Resumen: Objetivo: Analizar la incidencia y la mortalidad de 28 tipos de cáncer por nivel de marginación, grupos de edad y sexo, de 1990 a 2013. Material y métodos: Los datos utilizados provienen del estudio de la Carga Global de Enfermedades (2013). Las entidades federativas se clasificaron de acuerdo con el índice de marginación del Consejo Nacional de Población. Resultados: Los datos muestran una tendencia decreciente para algunos cánceres (pulmón y cervical), mientras otros aparecen como prioritarios y relevantes (próstata, mama, estómago, colon e hígado). En el norte se observan incrementos regionales mayores en las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad estandarizadas por edad, mientras que en los estados del centro se observa una tendencia decreciente de la tasa de mortalidad. Conclusiones: La epidemiología del cáncer en México (en su mayoría basada en datos de mortalidad) presentan patrones regionales complejos por edad, sexo, tipo de cáncer e índice de marginación. Es vital la creación de un registro nacional para mejorar el seguimiento y evaluación de intervenciones preventivas y curativas.