Concealed firearm carrying laws and defensive firearm use in public locations of US metropolitan areas, 1986-2004.

OBJECTIVES: There has been extensive debate in the USA as to how laws regulating the carrying of concealed firearms affect crime and public safety. This study examines whether US state laws making it easier for civilians to obtain permits to carry concealed handguns in public increase defensive gun uses against violent threats and attacks in public. METHODS: We used National Crime Victimization Survey data from 39 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the USA over a 19-year period (1986-2004) to examine whether laws making it easier for civilians to obtain concealed carry permits are linked to higher levels of defensive gun use against violence in public spaces of metropolitan areas. Bivariate χ2 tests and multivariate logistic regression models (controlling for actor and situational characteristics) were used with 7196 public incidents to examine whether the likelihood of the victim using a gun against an attacker(s) varied based on the type of concealed carry law in the MSA at the time of the incident. RESULTS: The prevalence of self-defensive gun use in this sample was not clearly related to the passage of permissive gun carrying laws. Although defensive gun use was more common in MSAs with permissive gun carrying laws, this difference was not consistently related in magnitude or statistical significance to the passage of those laws or the length of time they had been in effect. CONCLUSIONS: Permissive concealed carry permit laws do not produce evident increases in self-defensive gun uses against crime in public locations.

Sent Home versus Being Arrested: The Relative Influence of School and Police Intervention on Drug Use.

Prior research has demonstrated that school disciplinary practices lead to juvenile justice intervention or the "school-to-prison pipeline" and that juvenile justice intervention leads to adversities, including drug-using behavior, in adolescence and adult life. Yet, it is not clear which form of official intervention, school suspension and expulsion or police arrest, is more predictive of drug use among young people. Using data from the Rochester Youth Developmental Study, we examined both the immediate, concurrent influence of school and police intervention on drug use during adolescence and the long-term, cumulative impact of school and police intervention during adolescence on subsequent drug use in young established adulthood. The results indicate that school exclusionary practices appeared to be more predictive of drug use than police arrest during both adolescence and young adulthood. Additionally, such negative effects mainly exhibited among minority subjects, and the effects by gender appeared contingent on developmental stages.

The Effects of Parental School Exclusion on Offspring Drug Use: An Intergenerational Path Analysis.

PURPOSE: To determine whether and how exclusionary school punishment experienced by parents affects the drug use of their offspring. METHODS: Using panel data of 360 parent-child dyads from the Rochester Youth Developmental Study and its intergenerational component, the Rochester Intergenerational Study, we conduct path analysis to evaluate the adequacy of a theoretical model that explicates the intergenerational pathways from parental school exclusion to offspring drug use. RESULTS: Parents who were suspended or expelled during adolescence are more likely to drop out of school, which, in turn, leads to parental adult drug use, economic hardship, and ineffective parenting of their children. As a result, their offspring are likely to hold attitudes/beliefs favoring drug use and have reduced bonding to school, which, ultimately, contribute to offspring drug use. CONCLUSIONS: Exclusionary school disciplinary practices not only result in a number of adverse collateral consequences within one generation of respondents, the negative effects of such experiences are also felt by the next generation. Therefore, exclusionary school punishment should only be used as a last resort. Whenever possible, disciplinary practices in school need to involve inclusionary efforts to re-integrate students into the larger school community.

Examining mass shootings from a neighborhood perspective: An analysis of multiple-casualty events and media reporting in Philadelphia, United States.

Identifying the people and places affected by mass shootings depends on how "mass shooting" is defined. From the perspective of urban neighborhoods, it is likely the number of people injured within a proximate time and space, which determines the event's impact on perceptions of safety and social cohesion. We aimed to describe the incidence of "neighborhood" mass shootings in one US city and to determine how these events were communicated to the public through news media. This mixed-methods study analyzed Philadelphia, Pennsylvania police data from 2006 to 2015. Using rolling temporal and distance buffers, we isolated shooting events involving multiple victims within a defined time period and geography. Selecting a definition of neighborhood mass shooting consistent with other common mass shooting definitions in which ≥4 victims were shot within 1 h and 100 m, we identified 46 events involving 212 victims over 10 years. We then searched public news media databases and used directed content analysis to describe the range and headline content from reports associated with the 46 events. Neighborhood mass shooting victims were more likely to be younger and female compared to other firearm-injured individuals (p < 0.001). Seven (15%) events received no news media attention, and 30 (77%) of the 39 reported events were covered solely in local/regional news. Only one event was named a "mass shooting" in any associated headline. In Philadelphia, neighborhood mass shootings occur multiple times per year but receive limited media coverage. The population health impact of these events is likely under-appreciated by the public and policymakers.

Ridesharing and Motor Vehicle Crashes in 4 US Cities: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

Uber, the world's largest ridesharing company, has reportedly provided over 2 billion journeys globally since operations began in 2010; however, the impact on motor vehicle crashes is unclear. Theoretically, ridesharing could reduce alcohol-involved crashes in locations where other modes of transportation are less attractive than driving one's own vehicle while under the influence of alcohol. We conducted interrupted time-series analyses using weekly counts of injury crashes and the proportion that were alcohol-involved in 4 US cities (Las Vegas, Nevada; Reno, Nevada; Portland, Oregon; and San Antonio, Texas). We considered that a resumption of Uber operations after a temporary break would produce a more substantial change in ridership than an initial launch, so we selected cities where Uber launched, ceased, and then resumed operations (2013-2016). We hypothesized that Uber's resumption would be associated with fewer alcohol-involved crashes. Results partially supported this hypothesis. For example, in Portland, Uber's resumption was associated with a 61.8% reduction (95% confidence interval: 38.7, 86.4) in the alcohol-involved crash rate (an absolute decrease of 3.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.7, 4.4) alcohol-involved crashes per week); however, there was no concomitant change in all injury crashes. Relationships between ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes differ between cities over time and may depend on specific local characteristics.

Assaults on Days of Campaign Rallies During the 2016 US Presidential Election.

BACKGROUND: This study investigates whether assault frequency increased on days and in cities where candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton held campaign rallies prior to the 2016 US Presidential election. METHODS: We calculated city-level counts of police-reported assaults for 31 rallies for Donald Trump and 38 rallies for Hillary Clinton. Negative binomial models estimated the assault incidence on rally days (day 0) relative to that on eight control days for the same city (days -28, -21, -14, -7, +7, +14, +21, and +28). RESULTS: Cities experienced an increase in assaults (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22) on the days of Donald Trump's rallies, and no change in assaults on the days of Hillary Clinton's rallies (IRR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94-1.06). CONCLUSION: Assaults increased on days when cities hosted Donald Trump's rallies during the 2016 Presidential election campaign.

Quantifying Disparities in Urban Firearm Violence by Race and Place in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: A Cartographic Study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe variability in the burden of firearm violence by race, income, and place in an urban context. METHODS: We used Philadelphia Police Department data from 2013 to 2014 to calculate firearm assault rates within census block groups for both victim residence and event locations, stratifying by race and block group income. We used cartographic modeling to determine variations in incidence of firearm assault by race, neighborhood income, and place. RESULTS: The overall rate of firearm assault was 5.0 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.5, 5.6) for Black people compared with White people. Firearm assault rates were higher among Black people across all victim residence incomes. Relative risk of firearm assault reached 15.8 times higher (95% CI = 10.7, 23.2) for Black residents in the highest-income block groups when compared with high-income White individuals. Firearm assault events tended to occur in low-income areas and were concentrated in several "hot spot" locations with high proportions of Black residents. CONCLUSIONS: Profound disparity in exposure to firearm violence by race and place exists in Philadelphia. Black people were substantially more likely than White people to sustain firearm assault, regardless of neighborhood income.

Dual Trajectories of Gang Affiliation and Delinquent Peer Association During Adolescence: An Examination of Long-Term Offending Outcomes.

Prior research has demonstrated that both adolescent gang affiliation and perceived delinquent peer association are important predictors of individual offending. A crucial question is whether and how youth gang affiliation contributes to a spectrum of criminal acts above and beyond the influence of associating with delinquent peers. Using 14 waves of data from the Rochester Youth Developmental Study, an ongoing longitudinal panel study aimed at understanding the causes and consequences of delinquency and drug use in an urban sample of adolescents, the current study employs a relatively new modeling technique-dual trajectory analysis-to illustrate the dynamic relationship between these two measures among 666 male youth. The results suggest that the two measures, while overlapping, may constitute distinct concepts that operate in different ways. The most convincing evidence of gang effects, above and beyond the influence of perceived peer delinquency, is for violent behavior and by extension police arrest. Our findings contribute to developmental research and provide information that informs future gang control efforts.

Reaching and engaging people: Analyzing tweeting practices of large U.S. police departments pre- and post- the killing of George Floyd.

Finding ways to improve police legitimacy and police-community relations has for long been an important social issue in the United States. It becomes particularly urgent following the murder of George Floyd on May 25th, 2020. An emerging area that holds potential in remediating police-community relations pertains to the use of social media by police. Yet, this body of research stays highly exploratory (e.g., case studies based on a small sample of agencies) and different viewpoints exist regarding the objectives of police social media usage. The current study identified 115 large police departments in the U.S. and collected their tweets over a 4-month period between 4/1/2020 and 7/31/2020. We investigated how police agencies (both individually and as an aggregate) leveraged social media to respond to the nationwide protests directed at the police and community reactions to such responses. We found that police agencies tweeted more frequently in the immediate aftermath of the murder and posted an increased number of civil-unrest related tweets. The public showed a greater interest in engaging with law enforcement agencies (i.e., average favorite and retweet counts) following the murder. A great variability emerged across agencies in their responses on social media, suggesting that examining only a handful of agencies or a particular dimension of social media usage would limit our understanding of police behaviors and citizen interactions on social media. In conclusion, we suggested a few avenues for future research (and practices) on responsible and effective use of social media by police, while pointing out the challenges associated with such inquiries.

State Firearm Legislation and Youth/Young Adult Handgun Carrying in the United States.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between state firearm legislation and youth/young adult handgun carrying in the United States and to identify policy priority areas for intervention. METHODS: We linked person-level gun carrying data from a nationally representative sample of U.S. youth and young adults with state-level gun policies over a 15-year period. Cross-classified mixed effects logistic regressions estimated the associations between state gun policies and handgun carrying and explored whether the associations varied by person-level demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Youth and young adults in states with a greater number of gun policies were less likely to carry a handgun than youth and young adults in states with fewer gun policies. Regulations on gun purchasing, concealed carrying permitting, and domestic violence-related laws were particularly important in reducing youth/young adult gun-carrying behavior. In addition, these associations varied by gender and race/ethnicity. DISCUSSION: State firearm legislation may be an effective mechanism to reduce youth and young adult gun carrying and ultimately mitigate gun-related mortality and morbidity.

Communities, Streets, and People: A Multi-level Study of the Correlates of Victimization.

The current study adds the context of the immediate microgeographic environment (measured as the street segment) to the study of individual victimization. Using residential survey and physical observation data collected on 449 street segments nested within 53 communities in Baltimore, MD, we employ multilevel logistic regression models to examine how individual risky lifestyles, the microgeographic context of the street, and community level measures influence self-reported property and violent crime victimization. Results confirm prior studies that show that risky lifestyles play a key role in understanding both property and violent crime victimization, and community indicators of disadvantage play a role in explaining violent crime victimization. At the same time, our models show that the street segment (micro-geographic) level adds significant explanation to our understanding of victimization, suggesting that three level models should be used in explaining individual victimization. The impact of the street segment is particularly salient for property crime.

Absolute versus relative socioeconomic disadvantage and homicide: a spatial ecological case-control study of US zip codes.

BACKGROUND: Homicide is a major cause of death and contributes to health disparities in the United States. This burden overwhelmingly affects people from racial and ethnic minority populations as homicide occurs more often in neighborhoods with high proportions of racial and ethnic minority residents. Research has identified that environmental factors contribute to variation in homicide rates between neighborhoods; however, it is not clear why some neighborhoods with high concentrations of racial and ethnic minority residents have high homicide rates while neighborhoods with similar demographic compositions do not. The aim of this study was to assess whether relative socioeconomic disadvantage, (i.e., income inequality), or absolute socioeconomic disadvantage (i.e., income) measured at the ZIP code- and state-levels, is associated with high homicide rates in US ZIP codes, independent of racial and ethnic composition. METHODS: This ecological case-control study compared median household income and income inequality in 250 ZIP codes with the highest homicide rate in our sample in 2017 (cases) to 250 ZIP codes that did not experience any homicide deaths in 2017 (controls). Cases were matched to controls 1:1 based on demographic composition. Variables were measured at both the ZIP code- and state-levels. RESULTS: Lower median household income at the ZIP code-level contributed most substantially to the homicide rate. Income inequality at the state-level, however, was additionally significant when controlling for both ZIP code- and state-level factors. CONCLUSIONS: Area-based interventions that improve absolute measures of ZIP code socioeconomic disadvantage may reduce gaps in homicide rates.

Developmental Comorbidity of Substance Use and Handgun Carrying Among U.S. Youth.

INTRODUCTION: This study identifies the longitudinal trajectories of multiple forms of substance use and handgun carrying and examines their comorbidity over time. METHODS: In a cohort study of 6,748 youth from a U.S. nationally representative sample (51% male, 49% female; 69% White, 16% Black, 14% Hispanic, and 1% other race/ethnicity; born between 1980 and 1984), individuals self-reported their substance-use status (i.e., smoking, drinking, marijuana use, and hard drug use), handgun carrying, and other covariates between 1997 and 2013. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify distinct patterns of substance use and handgun carrying over time. Chi-square tests were used to determine the bivariate associations between substance-use and handgun-carrying trajectories, and a multinomial logistic regression examined the associations while adjusting for covariates. Analyses were conducted in 2020. RESULTS: Trajectories of all the 4 forms of substance use were associated with handgun-carrying trajectories. Specifically, the risk of being in the declining trajectory of handgun carrying (compared with that of being in the very-low trajectory) was higher for participants who were in the decreasing trajectories of smoking, drinking, marijuana use, and hard drug use and lower for those who were in the increasing trajectory of drinking. Inversely, the risks of being in the low and high-increasing trajectories of handgun carrying (compared with that of being in the very-low trajectory) were higher for participants who were in the increasing trajectory of hard drug use. CONCLUSIONS: Both substance use and gun carrying are developmentally heterogeneous phenomena. Varied forms of substance use should be targeted to counter the distinct gun carrying patterns.

Poor Health and Violent Crime Hot Spots: Mitigating the Undesirable Co-Occurrence Through Focused Place-Based Interventions.

INTRODUCTION: The geographic overlap of violence and poor health is a major public health concern. To understand whether and how place-based interventions targeting micro-geographic places can reduce this undesirable co-occurrence, the study addresses 2 important questions. First, to what extent are deteriorated health conditions associated with living at violent crime hot spots? Second, through what mechanisms can focused place-based interventions break the association between living with violence and deteriorated health? METHODS: This study used survey data from 2,724 respondents living on 328 street segments that were categorized as violent crime hot spots (181 segments with 1,532 respondents) versus non-hot spots (147 segments with 1,192 respondents) in 2013-2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. Propensity score analysis assessed whether individuals living at violent crime hot spots had lower general health perceptions than people living at non-hot spots. Marginal structural models estimated the proportion of total effects mediated by 3 theoretically informed intervening mechanisms. Analyses were conducted in 2019. RESULTS: Respondents living at violent crime hot spots had a lower level of self-rated general health (b= -0.096, 95% CI= -0.176, -0.015) and higher levels of health limitations (b=0.068, 95% CI=0.027, 0.109) and problems (OR=2.026, 95% CI=1.225, 3.349) than those living at non-hot spots. Enhanced perceptions of safety, collective efficacy, and police legitimacy may break the association between living in places with extremely high levels of violence and deteriorated health. CONCLUSIONS: Indicated or selective strategies are urgently needed to target micro-geographic locations with known increased risks, supplementing universal strategies applied to a broader community.

As Violence Unfolds: A Space-Time Study of Situational Triggers of Violent Victimization among Urban Youth.

OBJECTIVES: This study clarifies three important issues regarding situational or opportunity theories of victimization: 1) whether engaging in risk activities triggers violent assault during specific, often fleeting moments, 2) how environmental settings along individuals' daily paths affect their risk of violent assault, and 3) whether situational triggers have differential effects on violent assault during the day versus night. METHODS: Using an innovative GIS-assisted interview technique, 298 young male violent assault victims in Philadelphia, PA described their activity paths over the course of the day of being assaulted. Case-crossover analyses compared each subject's exposure status at the time of assault with his own statuses earlier in the day (stratified by daytime and nighttime). RESULTS: Being at an outdoor/public space, conducting unstructured activities, and absence of guardians increase the likelihood of violent victimization at a fine spatial-temporal scale at both daytime and nighttime. Yet, the presence of friends and environmental characteristics have differential effects on violent victimization at daytime versus nighttime. Moreover, individual risk activities appeared to exhibit better predictive performance than did environmental characteristics in our space-time situational analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the value of documenting how individuals navigate their daily activity space, and ultimately advances our understanding of youth violence from a real-time, real-life standpoint.

Criminal Justice Contact Across Generations: Assessing the intergenerational Labeling Hypothesis.

PURPOSE: The present study assesses the intergenerational labeling hypothesis and examines whether the relationship between a child's involuntary contact with the police and subsequent offending depends on parental arrest history (and its timing in the life course of the child) and parent sex. METHODS: Using data from 312 parent-child dyads from the Rochester Youth Development Study and Rochester Intergenerational Study, generalized linear regression models estimate the main and interactive effects of a child's involuntary contact and parental arrest history on subsequent delinquency as well as potential mechanisms for deviance amplification. RESULTS: Main effects are consistent with labeling theory and moderation analyses reveal that the impact of involuntary contact on subsequent delinquency depends on parental arrest history. More specifically, contact with the police on subsequent offending is greater when the focal parent has an arrest history, regardless of when the most recent arrest occurs in the life course of the child. However, some differences in the magnitude of the exacerbating effect of recent parental arrest emerged. Results also speak to potential mechanisms across mother-child and father-child dyads with respect to deviance amplification. CONCLUSIONS: This research supports the life-course principles of "linked lives" and "timing in lives" and their application to labeling theory in an intergenerational context. To reduce deviance amplification, special attention should be paid to youth who experience a police contact in the context of a parental arrest history.

Longitudinal Heterogeneity in Handgun-Carrying Behavior Among Urban American Youth: Intervention Priorities at Different Life Stages.

PURPOSE: To determine longitudinal patterns of handgun-carrying behavior among urban American youth and identify modifiable risk factors associated with distinct carrying patterns that should be targeted at different life stages. METHODS: Using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we estimated longitudinal trajectories of handgun carrying among urban Americans, who carried a handgun at least once between 1997 and 2011 (N = 1,574). Multinomial logistic regression analyses examined risk factors associated with handgun-carrying trajectory groups during late adolescence (ages 16-20), emerging adulthood (ages 20-24), and young established adulthood (ages 24-28). RESULTS: Group-based trajectory analyses identified four groups: Declining (35.0%, N = 560), bell-shaped (35.5%; N = 561), late-initiating (19.6%; N = 303), and high-persistent (9.9%; N = 150). During late adolescence, lower risks of mental health problems, hard drug use, police arrest, and presence of a gang in the neighborhood or school differentiated the late-initiating group from the other higher risk groups. During emerging and young established adulthood, higher risks of alcohol use, police arrest, and presence of a gang in the neighborhood or school were associated with trajectory groups with higher likelihood of handgun carrying than the declining group. CONCLUSIONS: There are more than one profile of adolescents and young adults who carry handguns. Preventive interventions should have distinct priorities that address different patterns of handgun-carrying behavior at different life stages.

The enduring impact of historical and structural racism on urban violence in Philadelphia.

Public health approaches to crime and injury prevention are increasingly focused on the physical places and environments where violence is concentrated. In this study, our aim is to explore the association between historic place-based racial discrimination captured in the 1937 Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) map of Philadelphia and present-day violent crime and firearm injuries. The creators of the 1937 HOLC map zoned Philadelphia based in a hierarchical system wherein first-grade and green color zones were used to indicate areas desirable for government-backed mortgage lending and economic development, a second-grade or blue zone for areas that were already developed and stable, a third-grade or yellow zone for areas with evidence of decline and influx of a "low grade population," and fourth-grade or red zone for areas with dilapidated or informal housing and an "undesirable population" of predominately Black residents. We conducted an empirical spatial analysis of the concentration of firearm assaults and violent crimes in 2013 through 2014 relative to zoning in the 1937 HOLC map. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors at the time the map was created from the 1940 Census, firearm injury rates are highest in historically red-zoned areas of Philadelphia. The relationship between HOLC map zones and general violent crime is not supported after adjusting for historical Census data. This analysis extends historic perspective to the relationship between emplaced structural racism and violence, and situates the socio-ecological context in which people live at the forefront of this association.