A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19.

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

What Are Conspiracy Theories? A Definitional Approach to Their Correlates, Consequences, and Communication.

Conspiracy theories are abundant in social and political discourse, with serious consequences for individuals, groups, and societies. However, psychological scientists have started paying close attention to them only in the past 20 years. We review the spectacular progress that has since been made and some of the limitations of research so far, and we consider the prospects for further progress. To this end, we take a step back to analyze the defining features that make conspiracy theories different in kind from other beliefs and different in degree from each other. We consider how these features determine the adoption, consequences, and transmission of belief in conspiracy theories, even though their role as causal or moderating variables has seldom been examined. We therefore advocate for a research agenda in the study of conspiracy theories that starts-as is routine in fields such as virology and toxicology-with a robust descriptive analysis of the ontology of the entity at its center.

A Phase II randomized controlled trial of oral prednisolone in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (PRedSS).

OBJECTIVES: Although the painful and disabling features of early diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) have an inflammatory basis and could respond to corticosteroids, corticosteroids are a risk factor for scleroderma renal crisis. Whether or not they should be prescribed is therefore highly contentious. Our aim was to examine safety and efficacy of moderate-dose prednisolone in early dcSSc. METHODS: PRedSS set out as a Phase II, multicentre, double-blind randomized controlled trial, converted to open-label during the Covid-19 pandemic. Patients were randomized to receive either prednisolone (∼0.3 mg/kg) or matching placebo (or no treatment during open-label) for 6 months. Co-primary endpoints were the HAQ Disability Index (HAQ-DI) and modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) at 3 months. Over 20 secondary endpoints included patient reported outcome measures reflecting pain, itch, fatigue, anxiety and depression, and helplessness. Target recruitment was 72 patients. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients were randomized (17 prednisolone, 18 placebo/control). The adjusted mean difference between treatment groups at 3 months in HAQ-DI score was -0.10 (97.5% CI: -0.29, 0.10), P = 0.254, and in mRSS -3.90 (97.5% CI: -8.83, 1.03), P = 0.070, both favouring prednisolone but not significantly. Patients in the prednisolone group experienced significantly less pain (P = 0.027), anxiety (P = 0.018) and helplessness (P = 0.040) than control patients at 3 months. There were no renal crises, but sample size was small. CONCLUSION: PRedSS was terminated early primarily due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and so was underpowered. Therefore, interpretation must be cautious and results considered inconclusive, indicating the need for a further randomized trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03708718.

An international survey of current management practices for polymyalgia rheumatica by general practitioners and rheumatologists.

OBJECTIVES: To explore current management practices for PMR by general practitioners (GPs) and rheumatologists including implications for clinical trial recruitment. METHODS: An English language questionnaire was constructed by a working group of rheumatologists and GPs from six countries. The questionnaire focused on: 1: Respondent characteristics; 2: Referral practices; 3: Treatment with glucocorticoids; 4: Diagnostics; 5: Comorbidities; and 6: Barriers to research. The questionnaire was distributed to rheumatologists and GPs worldwide via members of the International PMR/Giant Cell Arteritis Study Group. RESULTS: In total, 394 GPs and 937 rheumatologists responded to the survey. GPs referred a median of 25% of their suspected PMR patients for diagnosis and 50% of these were returned to their GP for management. In general, 39% of rheumatologists evaluated patients with suspected PMR >2 weeks after referral, and a median of 50% of patients had started prednisolone before rheumatologist evaluation. Direct comparison of initial treatment showed that the percentage prescribing >25 mg prednisolone daily for patients was 30% for GPs and 12% for rheumatologists. Diagnostic imaging was rarely used. More than half (56%) of rheumatologists experienced difficulties recruiting people with PMR to clinical trials. CONCLUSION: This large international survey indicates that a large proportion of people with PMR are not referred for diagnosis, and that the proportion of treatment-naive patients declined with increasing time from referral to assessment. Strategies are needed to change referral and management of people with PMR, to improve clinical practice and facilitate recruitment to clinical trials.

Intentions to be Vaccinated Against COVID-19: The Role of Prosociality and Conspiracy Beliefs across 20 Countries.

Understanding the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake is important to inform policy decisions and plan vaccination campaigns. The aims of this research were to: (1) explore the individual- and country-level determinants of intentions to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, and (2) examine worldwide variation in vaccination intentions. This cross-sectional online survey was conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, involving 6697 respondents across 20 countries. Results showed that 72.9% of participants reported positive intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19, whereas 16.8% were undecided, and 10.3% reported they would not be vaccinated. At the individual level, prosociality was a significant positive predictor of vaccination intentions, whereas generic beliefs in conspiracy theories and religiosity were negative predictors. Country-level determinants, including cultural dimensions of individualism/collectivism and power distance, were not significant predictors of vaccination intentions. Altogether, this study identifies individual-level predictors that are common across multiple countries, provides further evidence on the importance of combating conspiracy theories, involving religious institutions in vaccination campaigns, and stimulating prosocial motives to encourage vaccine uptake.

Unpalatable truths: Commitment to eating meat is associated with strategic ignorance of food-animal minds.

Animal minds are of central importance to debates about their rights and welfare. Remaining ignorant of evidence that animals have minds is therefore likely to facilitate their mistreatment. Studying samples of adults and students from the UK and US we found that, consistent with motivational perspectives on meat consumption, those who were more (vs. less) committed to eating meat were more motivated to avoid exposure to information about food-animals' sentience (Studies 1), showed less interest in exposure to articles about intelligent food animals (Studies 2a and 2b), and were quicker to terminate exposure to internet pop-ups containing information about food-animals' minds (Studies 3a and 3b). At the same time, those who were more (vs. less) committed to eating meat approached information about companion-animals' minds (Studies 2a-3b) and unintelligent food animals (Studies 2a and 2b) in largely the same ways. The findings demonstrate that, within the UK and US, the desire to eat meat is associated with strategies to avoid information that is likely to challenge meat consumption.

Conspiracy beliefs in Britain and North Macedonia: A comparative study.

The psychological research on conspiracy beliefs to date has focused predominantly on conspiracy beliefs in Western democracies. The current study sought to fill this gap by examining beliefs in conspiracy theories in a democratic society and a society in transition. British (N = 298) and Macedonian (N = 312) participants completed an online questionnaire measuring conspiracy beliefs, trust in media and institutions and support for democratic principles. Macedonian participants endorsed conspiracy theories more than British. In addition, support for democratic principles, low trust in institutions and media were significant predictors of conspiracy beliefs. The relationship between trust and conspiracy beliefs was moderated by country, such that it was significantly stronger in the British group. This study draws attention to the need for cross-societal research on belief in conspiracy theories.

A call for caution regarding infection-acquired COVID-19 immunity: The potentially unintended effects of "immunity passports" and how to mitigate them.

Research suggests that emerging information about infection-acquired COVID-19 immunity should be interpreted with caution. The introduction of "immunity passports" that would enable people who have recovered from COVID-19 to travel freely and return to work may therefore have detrimental consequences if not managed carefully. In two studies, we examined how perceived (suspected or imagined) recovery from COVID-19, and the concept of immunity passports, influence people's intentions to engage in behaviors aimed to reduce the spread of COVID-19. We also consider ways to lessen potential negative effects. In Study 1 (N = 1604), participants asked to imagine that they had recovered from COVID-19 reported lower social distancing intentions compared to a control condition. Participants who suspected (versus imagined) that they had recovered from past infection did not report lower preventative intentions compared to the control condition, even at high levels of certainty of past infection. In Study 2 (N = 1732), introducing the idea of immunity passports also reduced social distancing intentions compared to a control condition. The latter effect was, however, attenuated when cautious information about the equivocal science on COVID-19 was also presented to participants. Participants who suspected that they had COVID-19 in the past (compared to the control condition) revealed a similar pattern of results, but only at higher levels of certainty of past infection. Caution regarding infection-acquired COVID-19 immunity and immunity passports will be crucial in the COVID-19 response. Implications for premature pandemic announcements, as well as their potential remedies, are discussed.

Smoking cessation is associated with lower disease activity and predicts cardiovascular risk reduction in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

OBJECTIVES: Smoking is a major risk factor for the development of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and RA and may cause attenuated responses to anti-rheumatic treatments. Our aim was to compare disease activity, CVD risk factors and CVD event rates across smoking status in RA patients. METHODS: Disease characteristics, CVD risk factors and relevant medications were recorded in RA patients without prior CVD from 10 countries (Norway, UK, Netherlands, USA, Sweden, Greece, South Africa, Spain, Canada and Mexico). Information on CVD events was collected. Adjusted analysis of variance, logistic regression and Cox models were applied to compare RA disease activity (DAS28), CVD risk factors and event rates across categories of smoking status. RESULTS: Of the 3311 RA patients (1012 former, 887 current and 1412 never smokers), 235 experienced CVD events during a median follow-up of 3.5 years (interquartile range 2.5-6.1). At enrolment, current smokers were more likely to have moderate or high disease activity compared with former and never smokers (P < 0.001 for both). There was a gradient of worsening CVD risk factor profiles (lipoproteins and blood pressure) from never to former to current smokers. Furthermore, former and never smokers had significantly lower CVD event rates compared with current smokers [hazard ratio 0.70 (95% CI 0.51, 0.95), P = 0.02 and 0.48 (0.34, 0.69), P < 0.001, respectively]. The CVD event rates for former and never smokers were comparable. CONCLUSION: Smoking cessation in patients with RA was associated with lower disease activity and improved lipid profiles and was a predictor of reduced rates of CVD events.

Subclinical atherosclerosis in systemic sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis: a comparative matched-cohort study.

Systemic autoimmune inflammatory disorders confer a higher risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease leading to increased morbidity and mortality and reduced life expectancy compared to the general population. CV risk in systemic sclerosis (SSc) has not been studied extensively but surrogate markers of atherosclerosis namely carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV) are impaired in some but not all studies in SSc patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by cIMT and PWV between two well-characterized SSc and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) cohorts. Consecutive SSc patients attending the Scleroderma Clinic were compared with RA patients recruited in the Dudley Rheumatoid Arthritis Co-morbidity Cohort (DRACCO), a prospective study examining CV burden in RA. Augmentation Index (Aix75) and cIMT were measured in all participants. Propensity score matching was utilised to select patients from the two cohorts with similar demographic characteristics, CV risk factors and inflammatory load. Unpaired analysis was performed using unpaired t test for continuous variables and χ2 test for dichotomous variables. Statistical analysis was repeated using paired t test for continuous normal variables and McNemar's test for dichotomous variables. Fifty five age- and sex-matched SSc and RA patients were included in the analysis. No difference was demonstrated between SSc and RA subjects regarding cIMT (0.66 mm vs 0.63 mm, respectively) and Aix75% measurements (33.4 vs 31.7, respectively) neither in paired (p = 0.623 for cIMT and p = 0.204 for Aix%) nor in unpaired t test analysis (p = 0.137 for cIMT and p = 0.397 for AIx%). The results of this comparative study show that subclinical atherosclerosis is comparable between SSc and RA, a systemic disease with well-defined high atherosclerotic burden. Such findings underscore the importance of CV risk management in SSc in parallel with other disease-related manifestations.

Impact of risk factors associated with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an excess risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to assess the impact of CVD risk factors, including potential sex differences, and RA-specific variables on CVD outcome in a large, international cohort of patients with RA. METHODS: In 13 rheumatology centres, data on CVD risk factors and RA characteristics were collected at baseline. CVD outcomes (myocardial infarction, angina, revascularisation, stroke, peripheral vascular disease and CVD death) were collected using standardised definitions. RESULTS: 5638 patients with RA and no prior CVD were included (mean age: 55.3 (SD: 14.0) years, 76% women). During mean follow-up of 5.8 (SD: 4.4) years, 148 men and 241 women developed a CVD event (10-year cumulative incidence 20.9% and 11.1%, respectively). Men had a higher burden of CVD risk factors, including increased blood pressure, higher total cholesterol and smoking prevalence than women (all p<0.001). Among the traditional CVD risk factors, smoking and hypertension had the highest population attributable risk (PAR) overall and among both sexes, followed by total cholesterol. The PAR for Disease Activity Score and for seropositivity were comparable in magnitude to the PAR for lipids. A total of 70% of CVD events were attributable to all CVD risk factors and RA characteristics combined (separately 49% CVD risk factors and 30% RA characteristics). CONCLUSIONS: In a large, international cohort of patients with RA, 30% of CVD events were attributable to RA characteristics. This finding indicates that RA characteristics play an important role in efforts to reduce CVD risk among patients with RA.

Cumulative inflammation associates with asymmetric dimethylarginine in rheumatoid arthritis: a 6 year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the associations of cumulative inflammatory burden (assessed by serial measurements of inflammatory markers) and classical cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors with asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) in a large prospective cohort of patients with established RA. METHODS: Two hundred and one RA patients [155 females, median age 67 years (range 59-73)] were assessed at baseline (2006) for the presence of classical CVD risk factors and determination of systemic inflammation by CRP and ESR. Global CVD risk was identified by the Framingham Risk Score and the Reynolds Risk Score. At follow-up (2012), ADMA levels were measured by ELISA. A quarterly measurement of CRP and ESR for each year the patient was in the study was used to produce an average area under the curve (AAUC) for ESR and CRP. RESULTS: Regression analysis revealed that baseline ESR in 2006 and the AAUC of ESR and CRP all had significant positive relationships with current ADMA (P = 0.004, P < 0.001 and P = 0.002, respectively). Baseline CRP in 2006 was not a significant predictor of ADMA (P = 0.093), although this relationship was in the same direction as the other factors. These results remained consistent after adjustment for classical CVD risk factors. CONCLUSION: Cumulative inflammatory burden is positively associated with ADMA levels, suggesting a potential pathogenic mechanism through which chronic systemic inflammation exerts deleterious effects on nitric oxide metabolism and endothelial homeostasis. This association is independent of classical CVD risk factors.

Symmetric Dimethylarginine Is Not Associated with Cumulative Inflammatory Load or Classical Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study.

Symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) indirectly inhibits nitric oxide (NO) synthesis and predicts cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in high-risk patients. The aim of our study was to investigate the associations of cumulative inflammatory burden (assessed by serial measurements of inflammatory markers) and classical cardiovascular (CV) disease risk factors with SDMA in RA patients. 201 RA patients (155 females, median age 67 (59-73)) were assessed at baseline (2006). Classical CV disease risk factors were recorded and systemic inflammation was determined by the measurement of C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). At follow-up (2012) SDMA levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Mean SDMA levels in RA population were 0.40 (0.40-0.53) µmol/L. No significant association between SDMA and cumulative inflammatory load was established in the analysis. SDMA levels were not found to be significantly related to CV disease risk factors. We explored the potential relationship between SDMA and cumulative inflammatory burden in patients with RA and obtained negative results. SDMA did not relate to CV disease risk factors in our population and its clinical significance as a surrogate marker of endothelial dysfunction in patients with RA remains to be determined.

Prolonged QTc interval predicts all-cause mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: an association driven by high inflammatory burden.

OBJECTIVE: RA associates with an increased rate of sudden cardiac death (SCD). A prolonged QTc interval has been associated with arrhythmogenic and SCD in patients with long QT syndrome. Despite the previously reported contemporary association of CRP with SCD, thus far no studies have examined the association of QTc with mortality in RA, a condition characterized by high inflammatory burden. The aim of this study was to examine the role of electrocardiography (QT corrected interval) in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with RA who have an increased rate of SCD and a high inflammatory burden. METHODS: Three hundred and fifty-seven RA patients with detailed baseline clinical characterization and 12-lead ECGs were followed up for a mean of 73.0 (S.D. 18.3) months. Linear and Cox regression analyses were used to identify variables that associate with QTc and examine its association with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The patients' mean age was 60.6 (S.D. 12.0) years, 267 (74.8%) were females and 54 (15.1%) died during the follow-up period. Age (ß = 0.231, P < 0.001), gender (ß = 0.137, P = 0.008) and CRP (ß = 0.144, P = 0.006) associated independently with QTc in RA patients. The crude hazard ratio (HR) for total mortality per 50-ms increase in QTc was 2.17 (95% CI 1.21, 3.90). This association remained significant [HR = 2.18 (95% CI 1.09, 4.35)] after adjustment for identified confounders (cardiovascular and RA specific), but was lost [HR = 1.73 (95% CI 0.83, 3.62)] when CRP was included in the model. CONCLUSION: A 50-ms increase in QTc interval associates with a doubling of the hazard for all-cause mortality in patients with RA. The observed contemporary association of QTc with CRP levels indicates a potentially hazardous interplay between inflammation and arrhythmogenesis. Future studies are needed to confirm the above findings and explore underlying mechanisms.

The relationship between cardiovascular disease risk prediction scores and vascular function and morphology in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) resulting from impairments in vascular function and morphology. CVD risk prediction scores can identify patients at high risk of CVD, but little is known about whether they relate with assessments of vascular function and morphology which provide early indication of subclinical atherosclerosis. The objective of the present study was to examine the relationship of several CVD risk prediction scores with assessments of vascular function and morphology in patients with RA. METHODS: Framingham risk score, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for total cholesterol and ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein, as well as Reynolds Risk Score, and QRISK2 were calculated in 201 RA patients (155 females, median (25th to 75th percentile) age: 61 (53-67)) who were examined at baseline (2006). The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) multiplication factor was also applied to the algorithms. At a 6-year follow-up (2012) visit the patients underwent assessments of microvascular and macrovascular endothelium-dependent and endothelium-independent function, along with assessment of carotid atherosclerosis. RESULTS: All five CVD risk prediction scores measured at baseline were significantly correlated with vascular function and morphology at follow-up. Application of the EULAR multiplication factor did not change any of the associations. CONCLUSIONS: Five commonly used CVD risk prediction scores associate with assessments of vascular function and morphology over a 6-year follow-up period suggesting that these CVD risk prediction scores may also reflect subclinical atherosclerotic changes.

Coping strategies and belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy beliefs have been related to aversive emotional experiences often accompanying major world events and have also been linked to maladaptive ways of coping with stress. In this research, we examined how different coping strategies (i.e. self-sufficient, social-support, avoidance and religious) predicted the adoption of COVID-19 conspiracy theories. In two studies (Study 1, n = 1000 and Study 2, n = 616) conducted among Polish participants, we found that avoidance and religious coping were positively linked to COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. In Study 1, conspiracy beliefs also mediated the positive relationships between avoidance and religious coping and adherence to safety and self-isolation guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic. Study 2 additionally showed that the relationship between fear, induced by reading threatening news on COVID-19, and conspiracy beliefs was the strongest among those high in avoidance coping. These studies highlight the role of coping strategies in the adoption of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs.

Clinical trajectories of hand function impairment in systemic sclerosis: an unmet clinical need across disease subsets.

BACKGROUND: Hand involvement is an early manifestation of systemic sclerosis (SSc), culprit of diagnosis and classification, and recognised major driver of disability. Impairment of hand function burdens both limited and diffuse cutaneous subsets and therefore could be targeted as 'basket' endpoint in SSc. Nevertheless, its natural history in current standard of care is not well characterised, limiting the design of targeted trials. The aim of this study is to describe prevalence, natural history and clinical factors associated with hand function deterioration in a longitudinal, multicentre, observational SSc cohort. METHODS: Hand function was captured through the validated Cochin Hand Function Scale in patients consecutively enrolled in a multicentre observational study and observed over 24 months. Minimal clinically important differences and patient acceptable symptom state were analysed as previously described. RESULTS: Three hundred and ninety-six consecutive patients were enrolled from 10 centres; 201 with complete follow-up data were included in the analysis. Median (IQR) disease duration was 5 (2-11) years. One hundred and five (52.2%) patients reported clinically significant worsening. Accordingly, the proportion of patients reporting unacceptable hand function increased over 2 years from 27.8% to 35.8% (p<0.001). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis identified male gender, disease subset, Raynaud's Condition Score, tenosynovitis and pain, as some of the key factors associated with worsening hand involvement. CONCLUSIONS: Hand function deteriorates over time in more than 50% of SSc patients despite available therapies. The analysis of factors associated with hand function worsening supports the involvement of both inflammation, vascular and fibrotic processes in hand involvement, making it a hallmark clinical manifestation of SSc. Our data are poised to inform the design of intervention studies to target this major driver of disability in SSc.

The impact of generative artificial intelligence on socioeconomic inequalities and policy making.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to both exacerbate and ameliorate existing socioeconomic inequalities. In this article, we provide a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary overview of the potential impacts of generative AI on (mis)information and three information-intensive domains: work, education, and healthcare. Our goal is to highlight how generative AI could worsen existing inequalities while illuminating how AI may help mitigate pervasive social problems. In the information domain, generative AI can democratize content creation and access but may dramatically expand the production and proliferation of misinformation. In the workplace, it can boost productivity and create new jobs, but the benefits will likely be distributed unevenly. In education, it offers personalized learning, but may widen the digital divide. In healthcare, it might improve diagnostics and accessibility, but could deepen pre-existing inequalities. In each section, we cover a specific topic, evaluate existing research, identify critical gaps, and recommend research directions, including explicit trade-offs that complicate the derivation of a priori hypotheses. We conclude with a section highlighting the role of policymaking to maximize generative AI's potential to reduce inequalities while mitigating its harmful effects. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of existing policy frameworks in the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom, observing that each fails to fully confront the socioeconomic challenges we have identified. We propose several concrete policies that could promote shared prosperity through the advancement of generative AI. This article emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary collaborations to understand and address the complex challenges of generative AI.