Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives.

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but it remains impractical for many species, particularly species with multiple, broadly distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently developed method of multiple-population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We built on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), a species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, that is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin (U.S.A.). We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams, where LCT exist or may be reintroduced. Conservation populations (those managed for recovery) tended to have lower extinction risks than nonconservation populations (mean = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), but not always. Active management or reprioritization may be warranted in some cases. Eliminating non-native trout had a strong positive effect on overall carrying capacities for LCT populations but often did not translate into lower extinction risks unless simulations also reduced associated stochasticity (to the mean for populations without non-native trout). Sixty fish or 5-10 fish/km was the minimum reintroduction number and density, respectively, that provided near-maximum reintroduction success. This modeling framework provided crucial insights and empirical justification for conservation planning and specific adaptive management actions for this threatened species. More broadly, MPVA is applicable to a wide range of species exhibiting geographic rarity and limited availability of abundance data and greatly extends the potential use of empirical PVA for conservation assessment and planning.

Aplicación de un Análisis de Viabilidad Multi-Poblacional para Evaluar Alternativas de Recuperación de Especies Resumen El análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) es una herramienta poderosa de conservación, que desafortunadamente sigue siendo impráctica para muchas especies, en particular para aquellas con poblaciones múltiples distribuidas ampliamente, para las cuales puede ser un reto la recolección de datos apropiados. Sin embargo, un método recientemente desarrollado de análisis de viabilidad multi-poblacional (AVMP) aborda muchas de las limitaciones de los AVP tradicionales. Partimos del desarrollo previo de un AVMP para la trucha degollada lahontana (LCT, en inglés) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), una especie enlistada bajo el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los Estados Unidos, la cual está distribuida ampliamente a lo largo de los fragmentos de hábitat que se encuentran en la Gran Cuenca (E.U.A.). Simulamos los escenarios potenciales de manejo y evaluamos sus efectos sobre el tamaño de las poblaciones y los riesgos de extinción en 211 arroyos en donde existe la LCT o en donde podría ser reintroducida. Las poblaciones de conservación (aquellas manejadas para su recuperación) tuvieron una tendencia hacia un riesgo de extinción más bajo que las poblaciones sin conservación (media = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), pero no en todos los casos. El manejo activo o la repriorización podrían ser justificadas en algunos casos. La eliminación de las truchas no nativas tuvo un fuerte efecto positivo generalizado sobre las capacidades de carga de las poblaciones de LCT, aunque frecuentemente esto no se transformó en un riesgo de extinción más bajo a menos que las simulaciones también redujeran la estocasticidad asociada (para la media de las poblaciones sin truchas no nativas). Para proporcionar un éxito de reintroducción cercano al máximo, el número mínimo de reintroducción debió ser de 60 peces o una densidad de 5-10 peces/km. Este marco de trabajo para el modelo proporcionó una percepción muy importante y una justificación empírica para la planeación de la conservación y para las acciones de manejo adaptativo para esta especie amenazada. En términos más generales, el AVMP puede aplicarse a una gama amplia de especies que exhiban una rareza geográfica y una disponibilidad limitada de datos de abundancia, además de que expande enormemente el uso potencial de AVP empíricos para la evaluación y planeación de la conservación.

Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis.

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored occasionally. We present a hierarchical multi-population viability analysis model that increases inference power from sparse data by sharing information among populations to assess extinction risks while accounting for incomplete detection and sampling biases with explicit observation and sampling sub-models. We present a case study in which we customized this model for historical population monitoring data (1985-2015) from federally threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in the Great Basin, USA. Data were counts of fish captured during backpack electrofishing surveys from locations associated with 155 isolated populations. Some surveys (25%) included multi-pass removal sampling, which provided valuable information about capture efficiency. GIS and remote sensing were used to estimate August stream temperatures, peak flows, and riparian vegetation condition in each population each year. Field data were used to derive an annual index of nonnative trout densities. Results indicated that population growth rates were higher in colder streams and that nonnative trout reduced carrying capacities of native trout. Extinction risks increased with more environmental stochasticity and were also related to population extent, water temperatures, and nonnative densities. We developed a graphical user interface to interact with the fitted model results and to simulate future habitat scenarios and management actions to assess their influence on extinction risks in each population. Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis bridges the gap between site-level field observations and population-level processes, making effective use of existing datasets to support management decisions with robust estimates of population dynamics, extinction risks, and uncertainties.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems.

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

Survey of Beaver-related Restoration Practices in Rangeland Streams of the Western USA.

Poor condition of many streams and concerns about future droughts in the arid and semi-arid western USA have motivated novel restoration strategies aimed at accelerating recovery and increasing water resources. Translocation of beavers into formerly occupied habitats, restoration activities encouraging beaver recolonization, and instream structures mimicking the effects of beaver dams are restoration alternatives that have recently gained popularity because of their potential socioeconomic and ecological benefits. However, beaver dams and dam-like structures also harbor a history of social conflict. Hence, we identified a need to assess the use of beaver-related restoration projects in western rangelands to increase awareness and accountability, and identify gaps in scientific knowledge. We inventoried 97 projects implemented by 32 organizations, most in the last 10 years. We found that beaver-related stream restoration projects undertaken mostly involved the relocation of nuisance beavers. The most common goal was to store water, either with beaver dams or artificial structures. Beavers were often moved without regard to genetics, disease, or potential conflicts with nearby landowners. Few projects included post-implementation monitoring or planned for longer term issues, such as what happens when beavers abandon a site or when beaver dams or structures breach. Human dimensions were rarely considered and water rights and other issues were mostly unresolved or addressed through ad-hoc agreements. We conclude that the practice and implementation of beaver-related restoration has outpaced research on its efficacy and best practices. Further scientific research is necessary, especially research that informs the establishment of clear guidelines for best practices.

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Connectivity and conditional models of access and abundance of species in stream networks.

Barriers to passage of aquatic organisms at stream road crossings are a major cause of habitat fragmentation in stream networks. Accordingly, large investments have been made to restore passage at these crossings, but often without estimation of population-level benefits. Here, we describe a broad-scale approach to quantifying the effectiveness of passage restoration in terms interpretable at population levels, namely numbers of fish and length of stream gained through restoration, by sampling abundance in a study design that accounts for variable biogeographic species pools, variable stream and barrier configurations, and variable probabilities of capture and detectability for multiple species. We modified an existing zero-inflated negative-binomial model to estimate the probability of site access, abundance conditional on access, and capture probability of individual fish. Therein, we modeled probability of access as a function of gradient, stream road-crossing type, and downstream access by fish simultaneously with a predictive model for abundance at sites accessible to fish. Results indicated that replacement of barriers with new crossing designs intended to allow for greater movement was associated with dramatically higher probability of access for all fishes, including migratory Pacific salmon, trout, sculpin, and lamprey. Conversely, existing non-replaced crossings negatively impacted fish distributions. Assuming no downstream constraints on access, we estimated the potential length of stream restored by the program ranged between 7.33 (lamprey) and 15.28 km (small coastal cutthroat and rainbow trout). These contributions represented a fraction of the total length available upstream (187 km) of replaced crossings. When limited ranges of species were considered, the estimated contributions of culvert replacement were reduced (1.65-km range, for longnose dace to 12.31 km for small coastal cutthroat and rainbow trout). Numbers of fish contributed ranged from less than 500 (longnose dace) to greater than 100 000 (sculpin). Although our framework can address the question of effectiveness in a broad array of stream and crossing configurations, much stronger inferences would be possible if future restoration efforts were designed to address the limitations we encountered in this study, particularly the lack of available information on crossings and species presence prior to restoration, and nonrandom selection of crossings to be replaced.

Ameson metacarcini sp. nov. (Microsporidia) infecting the muscles of Dungeness crabs Metacarcinus magister from British Columbia, Canada.

The Dungeness crab Metacarcinus magister supports a large and valuable fishery along the west coast of North America. Since 1998, Dungeness crabs exhibiting pink- to orange-colored joints and opaque white musculature have been sporadically observed in low prevalence from the Fraser River delta of British Columbia, Canada. We provide histological, ultrastructural, and molecular evidence that this condition is caused by a new microsporidian parasite. Crabs displaying gross symptoms were confirmed to have heavy infections of ovoid-shaped microsporidian spores (~1.8 × 1.4 µm in size) within muscle bundles of the skeletal musculature. The parasite apparently infected the outer periphery of each muscle bundle, and then proliferated into the muscle fibres near the centre of each infected bundle. Light infections were observed in heart tissues, and occasionally spores were observed within the fixed phagocytes lining the blood vessels of the hepatopancreas. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) revealed multiple life stages of a monokaryotic microsporidian parasite within the sarcoplasm of muscle fibres. Molecular analysis of partial small subunit rRNA sequence data from the new species revealed an affinity to Ameson, a genus of Microsporidia infecting marine crustaceans. Based on morphological and molecular data, the new species is distinct from Nadelspora canceri, a related microsporidian that also infects the muscles of this host. At present, little is known about the distribution, seasonality, and transmission of A. metacarcini in M. magister.

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change.

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km(2)), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change.

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species' range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable habitat for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Interior Columbia River Basin, USA, under recent and projected 2040s and 2080s climate conditions. The 95% interval of total suitable habitat under recent conditions was estimated at 30.1-42.5 thousand km; this was predicted to decline to 0.5-7.9 thousand km by the 2080s. Projections for the 2080s showed that the great majority of stream segments would be unsuitable with high certainty, regardless of the climate data set or bull trout model employed. The largest contributor to uncertainty in total suitable habitat was climate uncertainty, followed by parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our approach makes it possible to calculate a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species, and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat.

Tough places and safe spaces: Can refuges save salmon from a warming climate?

The importance of thermal refuges in a rapidly warming world is particularly evident for migratory species, where individuals encounter a wide range of conditions throughout their lives. In this study, we used a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model to evaluate the buffering potential of cold-water thermal refuges for anadromous salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.) migrating upstream through a warm river corridor that can expose individuals to physiologically stressful temperatures. We considered upstream migration in relation to migratory phenotypes that were defined in terms of migration timing, spawn timing, swim speed, and use of cold-water thermal refuges. Individuals with different migratory phenotypes migrated upstream through riverine corridors with variable availability of cold-water thermal refuges and mainstem temperatures. Use of cold-water refuges (CWRs) decreased accumulated sublethal exposures to physiologically stressful temperatures when measured in degree-days above 20, 21, and 22°C. The availability of CWRs was an order of magnitude more effective in lowering accumulated sublethal exposures under current and future mainstem temperatures for summer steelhead than fall Chinook Salmon. We considered two emergent model outcomes, survival and percent of available energy used, in relation to thermal heterogeneity and migratory phenotype. Mean percent energy loss attributed to future warmer mainstem temperatures was at least two times larger than the difference in energy used in simulations without CWRs for steelhead and salmon. We also found that loss of CWRs reduced the diversity of energy-conserving migratory phenotypes when we examined the variability in entry timing and travel time outside of CWRs in relation to energy loss. Energy-conserving phenotypic space contracted by 7%-23% when CWRs were unavailable under the current thermal regime. Our simulations suggest that, while CWRs do not entirely mitigate for stressful thermal exposures in mainstem rivers, these features are important for maintaining a diversity of migration phenotypes. Our study suggests that the maintenance of diverse portfolios of migratory phenotypes and cool- and cold-water refuges might be added to the suite of policies and management actions presently being deployed to improve the likelihood of Pacific salmonid persistence into a future characterized by climate change.

Computational study of the chemistry of 3-phenylpropyl radicals.

Density functional theory (DFT) and G3-type (G3(MP2)-RAD) composite calculations were performed on a series of substituted 3-phenylpropyl radicals, to determine the relative importance of fragmentation and cyclization reactions in the chemistry of such species. Our studies indicate that cyclization is generally the more important of these reactions, with exceptions where fragmentation yields highly stabilized benzylic species. The energetic barriers for the cyclization reactions (enthalpies of activation) were found to be determined largely by the stability of the reactant radical and to a lesser but significant extent, by steric factors. Polarity effects in the transition state (modeled by SOMO-LUMO gaps of the products) appear to be less important. The data obtained indicated that the addition of benzyl radical to alkenes may be considered to be irreversible, but calculations for α-substituted styrenic systems indicate that reversibility of addition may become a factor in dilute polymerizing solutions for select systems.

Shade, light, and stream temperature responses to riparian thinning in second-growth redwood forests of northern California.

Resource managers in the Pacific Northwest (USA) actively thin second-growth forests to accelerate the development of late-successional conditions and seek to expand these restoration thinning treatments into riparian zones. Riparian forest thinning, however, may impact stream temperatures-a key water quality parameter often regulated to protect stream habitat and aquatic organisms. To better understand the effects of riparian thinning on shade, light, and stream temperature, we employed a manipulative field experiment following a replicated Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design in three watersheds in the redwood forests of northern California, USA. Thinning treatments were intended to reduce canopy closure or basal area within the riparian zone by up to 50% on both sides of the stream channel along a 100-200 m stream reach. We found that responses to thinning ranged widely depending on the intensity of thinning treatments. In the watersheds with more intensive treatments, thinning reduced shade, increased light, and altered stream thermal regimes in thinned and downstream reaches. Thinning shifted thermal regimes by increasing maximum temperatures, thermal variability, and the frequency and duration of elevated temperatures. These thermal responses occurred primarily during summer but also extended into spring and fall. Longitudinal profiles indicated that increases in temperature associated with thinning frequently persisted downstream, but downstream effects depended on the magnitude of upstream temperature increases. Model selection analyses indicated that local changes in shade as well as upstream thermal conditions and proximity to upstream treatments explained variation in stream temperature responses to thinning. In contrast, in the study watershed with less intensive thinning, smaller changes in shade and light resulted in minimal stream temperature responses. Collectively, our data shed new light on the stream thermal responses to riparian thinning. These results provide relevant information for managers considering thinning as a viable restoration strategy for second-growth riparian forests.

Beyond Streamflow: Call for a National Data Repository of Streamflow Presence for Streams and Rivers in the United States.

Observations of the presence or absence of surface water in streams are useful for characterizing streamflow permanence, which includes the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of surface flow in streams and rivers. Such data are particularly valuable for headwater streams, which comprise the vast majority of channel length in stream networks, are often non-perennial, and are frequently the most data deficient. Datasets of surface water presence exist across multiple data collection groups in the United States but are not well aligned for easy integration. Given the value of these data, a unified approach for organizing information on surface water presence and absence collected by diverse surveys would facilitate more effective and broad application of these data and address the gap in streamflow data in headwaters. In this paper, we highlight the numerous existing datasets on surface water presence in headwater streams, including recently developed crowdsourcing approaches. We identify the challenges of integrating multiple surface water presence/absence datasets that include differences in the definitions and categories of streamflow status, data collection method, spatial and temporal resolution, and accuracy of geographic location. Finally, we provide a list of critical and useful components that could be used to integrate different streamflow permanence datasets.

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America.

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

Thermal heterogeneity, migration, and consequences for spawning potential of female bull trout in a river-reservoir system.

The likelihood that fish will initiate spawning, spawn successfully, or skip spawning in a given year is conditioned in part on availability of energy reserves. We evaluated the consequences of spatial heterogeneity in thermal conditions on the energy accumulation and spawning potential of migratory bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a regulated river-reservoir system. Based on existing data, we identified a portfolio of thermal exposures and migratory patterns and then estimated their influence on energy reserves of female bull trout with a bioenergetics model. Spawning by females was assumed to be possible if postspawning energy reserves equaled or exceeded 4 kJ/g. Given this assumption, results suggested up to 70% of the simulated fish could spawn each year. Fish that moved seasonally between a cold river segment and a warmer reservoir downstream had a greater growth rate and higher propensity to spawn in a given year (range: 40%-70%) compared with fish that resided solely in the cold river segment (25%-40%). On average, fish that spawned lost 30% of their energy content relative to their prespawn energy. In contrast, fish that skipped spawning accumulated, on average, 16% energy gains that could be used toward future gamete production. Skipped spawning occurred when water temperatures were relatively low or high, and if upstream migration occurred relatively late (mid-July or later) or early (early-May or earlier). Overall, our modeling effort suggests the configuration of thermal exposures, and the ability of bull trout to exploit this spatially and temporally variable thermal conditions can strongly influence energy reserves and likelihood of successful spawning.

Assessing contributions of cold-water refuges to reproductive migration corridor conditions for adult Chinook Salmon and steelhead trout in the Columbia River, USA.

Diadromous fish populations face multiple challenges along their migratory routes. These challenges include suboptimal water quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal and lateral connectivity. Interactions among factors influencing migration success make it challenging to assess management options for improving migratory fish conditions along riverine migration corridors. We describe a spatially explicit simulation model that integrates complex individual behaviors of fall-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and summer-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss) during migration, responds to variable habitat conditions over a large extent of the Columbia River, and links migration corridor conditions to fish condition outcomes. The model is built around a mechanistic behavioral decision tree that drives individual interactions of fish within their simulated environments. By simulating several thermalscapes with alternative scenarios of thermal refuge availability, we examined how behavioral thermoregulation in cold-water refuges influenced migrating fish conditions. Outcomes of the migration corridor simulation model show that cold-water refuges can provide relief from exposure to high water temperatures, but do not substantially contribute to energy conservation by migrating adults. Simulated cooling of the Columbia River decreased reliance on cold-water refuges and there were slight reductions in migratory energy expenditure. This modeling of simulated thermalscapes provides a framework for assessing the contribution of cold-water refuges to the success of migrating fishes, but any final determination will depend on analyzing fish survival and health for their entire migration, water temperature management goals and species recovery targets.

Invasion versus isolation: trade-offs in managing native salmonids with barriers to upstream movement.

Conservation biologists often face the trade-off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non-native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non-native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non-native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade-off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion-isolation trade-off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.

Individual Based Modelling of Fish Migration in a 2-D River System: Model Description and Case Study.

CONTEXT: Diadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest face challenges along their migratory routes from declining habitat quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal connectivity. These stressors complicate the prioritization of proposed management actions intended to improve conditions for migratory fishes including anadromous salmon and trout. OBJECTIVES: We describe a multi-scale hybrid mechanistic-probabilistic simulation model linking migration corridor conditions to fish fitness outcomes. We demonstrate the model's utility using a case study of salmon and steelhead adults in the Columbia River migration corridor exposed to spatially- and temporally-varying stressors. METHODS: The migration corridor simulation model is based on a behavioral decision tree that governs individual interactions with the environment, and an energetic submodel that estimates the hourly costs of migration. Emergent properties of the migration corridor simulation model include passage time, energy use, and survival. RESULTS: We observed that the simulated fishes' initial energy density, the migration corridor temperatures they experienced, and their history of behavioral thermoregulation were the primary determinants of their fitness outcomes. Insights gained from use of the model might be exploited to identify management interventions that increase successful migration outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This paper describes new methods that extend the suite of tools available to aquatic biologists and conservation practitioners. We have developed a 2-dimensional spatially-explicit behavioral and physiological model and illustrated how it can be used to simulate fish migration within a river system. Our model can be used to evaluate trade-offs between behavioral thermoregulation and fish fitness at population scales.

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Chinook salmon use of spawning patches: relative roles of habitat quality, size, and connectivity.

Declines in many native fish populations have led to reassessments of management goals and shifted priorities from consumptive uses to species preservation. As management has shifted, relevant environmental characteristics have evolved from traditional metrics that described local habitat quality to characterizations of habitat size and connectivity. Despite the implications this shift has for how habitats may be prioritized for conservation, it has been rare to assess the relative importance of these habitat components. We used an information-theoretic approach to select the best models from sets of logistic regressions that linked habitat quality, size, and connectivity to the occurrence of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) nests. Spawning distributions were censused annually from 1995 to 2004, and data were complemented with field measurements that described habitat quality in 43 suitable spawning patches across a stream network that drained 1150 km2 in central Idaho. Results indicated that the most plausible models were dominated by measures of habitat size and connectivity, whereas habitat quality was of minor importance. Connectivity was the strongest predictor of nest occurrence, but connectivity interacted with habitat size, which became relatively more important when populations were reduced. Comparison of observed nest distributions to null model predictions confirmed that the habitat size association was driven by a biological mechanism when populations were small, but this association may have been an area-related sampling artifact at higher abundances. The implications for habitat management are that the size and connectivity of existing habitat networks should be maintained whenever possible. In situations where habitat restoration is occurring, expansion of existing areas or creation of new habitats in key areas that increase connectivity may be beneficial. Information about habitat size and connectivity also could be used to strategically prioritize areas for improvement of local habitat quality, with areas not meeting minimum thresholds being deemed inappropriate for pursuit of restoration activities.