Modeling asthma exacerbations through lung function in children.

BACKGROUND: Formal economic evaluation using a model-based approach is playing an increasingly important role in health care decision making. OBJECTIVE: To develop a model by using an objective measure of lung function-- prebronchodilator FEV(1) as a percent of predicted (FEV(1)% predicted)--as the primary independent factor to predict the frequency of adverse events related to the exacerbation of asthma on a population level. METHODS: We developed a Markov simulation model of childhood asthma by using data from the Childhood Asthma Management Program. The primary outcomes were the result of asthma exacerbations defined as hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, and the need for oral corticosteroid therapy. Predicted monthly frequencies for each acute event were based on negative binomial regression equations estimated from the placebo arm of the Childhood Asthma Management Program with covariates of age, prebronchodilator FEV(1)% predicted, time in study, prior hospitalizations, and prior nocturnal awakenings. RESULTS: Simulated versus observed mean number of acute events were similar within the placebo and treatment groups. While the trial demonstrated treatment effects of 48% reduction in hospitalizations, 46% reduction in ED visits, and 44% reduction in the need for oral corticosteroid therapy at 48 months, the model simulated similar reductions of 49% in hospitalizations, 41% in ED visits, and 46% in the need for oral corticosteroid therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that longitudinal intervention effects may be modeled through FEV(1)% predicted to estimate hospitalizations, ED visits, and need for oral corticosteroid therapy in childhood asthma for planning and evaluation purposes.

Cost benefit analysis of mesh reinforcement of stapled left pancreatectomy.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic leak is a morbid complication following left pancreatectomy, which results in prolonged hospitalization, additional diagnostic testing and invasive procedures. The present authors have previously demonstrated that mesh reinforcement of stapled left pancreatectomy results in fewer pancreatic leaks. This study was conducted to investigate whether mesh reinforcement also results in cost benefits for the health care system. METHODS: A cost benefit model was developed to estimate net cost savings from the payer's perspective. The model is based on the results of a randomized, single-blinded trial of mesh versus no mesh reinforcement of the pancreatic remnant after left pancreatectomy. A two-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the model's sensitivity to fluctuations in the cost of mesh and the effectiveness of the mesh in reducing clinically significant leaks. RESULTS: Average total costs for an episode of care were US$13 337 and US$15 505 for patients who did and did not receive mesh, respectively, which indicates savings of US$2168. Two-way sensitivity analysis showed that, given a probability of 1.9% for developing a clinically significant leak in patients in whom mesh reinforcement was used, the strategy would continue to save costs if mesh were priced at ≤US$1804. CONCLUSIONS: Mesh reinforcement decreases clinically significant pancreatic leaks. Despite the additional cost of mesh reinforcement, the use of mesh reinforcement results in overall cost savings for the health care system because of the resultant decrease in the occurrence of clinically significant leaks.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ranibizumab plus prompt or deferred laser or triamcinolone plus prompt laser for diabetic macular edema.

OBJECTIVE: Perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME) with ranibizumab plus prompt or deferred laser versus triamcinolone plus prompt laser. Data for the analysis were drawn from reports of the Diabetic Retinopathy Clinical Research Network (DRCRnet) Protocol I. DESIGN: Computer simulation based on Protocol I data. Analyses were conducted from the payor perspective. PARTICIPANTS: Simulated participants assigned characteristics reflecting those seen in Protocol I. METHODS: Markov models were constructed to replicate Protocol I's 104-week outcomes using a microsimulation approach to estimation. Baseline characteristics, visual acuity (VA), treatments, and complications were based on Protocol I data. Costs were identified by literature search. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed, and the results were validated against Protocol I data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Direct cost of care for 2 years, change in VA from baseline, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) measured as cost per additional letter gained from baseline (Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study). RESULTS: For sham plus laser (S+L), ranibizumab plus prompt laser (R+pL), ranibizumab plus deferred laser (R+dL), and triamcinolone plus laser (T+L), effectiveness through 104 weeks was predicted to be 3.46, 7.07, 8.63, and 2.40 letters correct, respectively. The ICER values in terms of dollars per VA letter were $393 (S+L vs. T+L), $5943 (R+pL vs. S+L), and $20 (R+dL vs. R+pL). For pseudophakics, the ICER value for comparison triamcinolone with laser versus ranibizumab with deferred laser was $14 690 per letter gained. No clinically relevant changes in model variables altered outcomes. Internal validation demonstrated good similarity to Protocol I treatment patterns. CONCLUSIONS: In treatment of phakic patients with DME, ranibizumab with deferred laser provided an additional 6 letters correct compared with triamcinolone with laser at an additional cost of $19 216 over 2 years. That would indicate that if the gain in VA seen at 2 years is maintained in subsequent years, then the treatment of phakic patients with DME using ranibizumab may meet accepted standards of cost-effectiveness. For pseudophakic patients, first-line treatment with triamcinolone seems to be the most cost-effective option.

High resource utilization does not affect mortality in acute respiratory failure patients managed with tracheostomy.

BACKGROUND: Tracheostomy practice in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) varies greatly among institutions. This variability has the potential to be reflected in the resources expended providing care. In various healthcare environments, increased resource expenditure has been associated with a favorable effect on outcome. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between institutional resource expenditure and mortality in ARF patients managed with tracheostomy. METHODS: We developed analytic models employing the University Health Systems Consortium (Oakbrook, Illinois) database. Administrative coding data were used to identify patients with the principal diagnosis of ARF, procedures, complications, post-discharge destination, and survival. Mean resource intensity of participating academic medical centers was determined using risk-adjusted estimates of costs. Mortality risk was determined using a multivariable approach that incorporated patient-level demographic and clinical variables and institution-level resource intensity. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 44,124 ARF subjects, 4,776 (10.8%) of whom underwent tracheostomy. Compared to low-resource-intensity settings, treatment in high-resource-intensity academic medical centers was associated with increased risk of mortality (odds ratio 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.76), including those managed with tracheostomy (odds ratio high-resource-intensity academic medical center with tracheostomy 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.17). We examined the relationship between complication development and outcome. While neither the profile nor number of complications accumulated differed comparing treatment environments (P > .05 for both), mortality for tracheostomy patients experiencing complications was greater in high-resource-intensity (95/313, 30.3%) versus low-resource-intensity (552/2,587, 21.3%) academic medical centers (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to demonstrate a positive relationship between resource expenditure and outcome in ARF patients managed with tracheostomy.