Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Topsoil porosity prediction across habitats at large scales using environmental variables.

Soil porosity and its reciprocal bulk density are important environmental state variables that enable modelers to represent hydraulic function and carbon storage. Biotic effects and their 'dynamic' influence on such state variables remain largely unknown for larger scales and may result in important, yet poorly quantified environmental feedbacks. Existing representation of hydraulic function is often invariant to environmental change and may be poor in some systems, particularly non-arable soils. Here we assess predictors of total porosity across two comprehensive national topsoil (0-15 cm) data sets, covering the full range of soil organic matter (SOM) and habitats (n = 1385 & n = 2570), using generalized additive mixed models and machine learning. Novel aspects of this work include the testing of metrics on aggregate size and livestock density alongside a range of different particle size distribution metrics. We demonstrate that porosity trends in Great Britain are dominated by biotic metrics, soil carbon and land use. Incorporating these variables into porosity prediction improves performance, paving the way for new dynamic calculation of porosity using surrogate measures with remote sensing, which may help improve prediction in data sparse regions of the world. Moreover, dynamic calculation of porosity could support representation of feedbacks in environmental and Earth System Models. Representing the hydrological feedbacks from changes in structural porosity also requires data and models at appropriate spatial scales to capture conditions leading to near-saturated soil conditions. Classification. Environmental Sciences.

Sinks for nitrogen inputs in terrestrial ecosystems: a meta-analysis of 15N tracer field studies.

Effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to store carbon (C) depend in part on the amount of N retained in the system and its partitioning among plant and soil pools. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies at 48 sites across four continents that used enriched 15N isotope tracers in order to synthesize information about total ecosystem N retention (i.e., total ecosystem 15N recovery in plant and soil pools) across natural systems and N partitioning among ecosystem pools. The greatest recoveries of ecosystem 15N tracer occurred in shrublands (mean, 89.5%) and wetlands (84.8%) followed by forests (74.9%) and grasslands (51.8%). In the short term (< 1 week after 15N tracer application), total ecosystem 15N recovery was negatively correlated with fine-root and soil 15N natural abundance, and organic soil C and N concentration but was positively correlated with mean annual temperature and mineral soil C:N. In the longer term (3-18 months after 15N tracer application), total ecosystem 15N retention was negatively correlated with foliar natural-abundance 15N but was positively correlated with mineral soil C and N concentration and C:N, showing that plant and soil natural-abundance 15N and soil C:N are good indicators of total ecosystem N retention. Foliar N concentration was not significantly related to ecosystem 15N tracer recovery, suggesting that plant N status is not a good predictor of total ecosystem N retention. Because the largest ecosystem sinks for 15N tracer were below ground in forests, shrublands, and grasslands, we conclude that growth enhancement and potential for increased C storage in aboveground biomass from atmospheric N deposition is likely to be modest in these ecosystems. Total ecosystem 15N recovery decreased with N fertilization, with an apparent threshold fertilization rate of 46 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1) above which most ecosystems showed net losses of applied 15N tracer in response to N fertilizer addition.

Measuring stock and change in the GB countryside for policy--key findings and developments from the Countryside Survey 2007 field survey.

Countryside Survey is a unique large scale long-term monitoring programme investigating stock and change of habitats, landscape features, vegetation, soil and freshwaters of Great Britain. Repeat field surveys combine policy and scientific objectives to provide evidence on how multiple aspects of the environment are changing over time, a key goal of international science in the face of profound human impacts on ecosystems. Countryside Survey 2007 (CS2007), the fifth survey since 1978, retained consistency with previous surveys, whilst evolving in line with technological and conceptual advances in the collection and integration of data to understand landscape change. This paper outlines approaches taken in the 2007 survey and its subsequent analysis and presents some of the headline results of the survey and their relevance for national and international policy objectives. Key changes between 1998 and 2007 included: a) significant shifts in agricultural land cover from arable to grassland, accompanied by increases in the area of broadleaved woodland, b) decreases in the length of managed hedges associated with agricultural land, as a proportion deteriorated to lines of trees and c) increases in the areas and numbers of wet habitats (standing open water, ponds) and species preferring wetter conditions (1998-2007 and 1978-2007). Despite international policy directed at maintaining and enhancing biodiversity, there were widespread decreases in species richness in all linear and area habitats, except on arable land, consistent with an increase in competitive and late successional species between 1998 and 2007 and 1978 and 2007. Late successional and competitive species: Stinging nettle (Urtica dioica), Hawthorn (Cratageous monogyna) and Bramble (Rubus fruticosus), in the top ten recorded species recorded in 2007, all increased between 1998 and 2007. The most commonly recorded species in CS (1990, 1998 and 2007) was agricultural Ryegrass (Lolium perenne). Increases in both water quality and soil pH were in line with policy aimed at addressing previous deterioration of both. Headwater streams broadly showed continued improvements in biological quality from 1998 to 2007, continuing trends seen since 1990. In soils, there were significant increases in soil pH between 1998 and 2007 consistent with recovery from acidification.

Multiple soil map comparison highlights challenges for predicting topsoil organic carbon concentration at national scale.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration is the fundamental indicator of soil health, underpinning food production and climate change mitigation. SOC storage is highly sensitive to several dynamic environmental drivers, with approximately one third of soils degraded and losing carbon worldwide. Digital soil mapping illuminates where hotspots of SOC storage occur and where losses to the atmosphere are most likely. Yet, attempts to map SOC often disagree. Here we compare national scale SOC concentration map products to reveal agreement of data in mineral soils, with progressively poorer agreement in organo-mineral and organic soils. Divergences in map predictions from each other and survey data widen in the high SOC content land types we stratified. Given the disparities are highest in carbon rich soils, efforts are required to reduce these uncertainties to increase confidence in mapping SOC storage and predicting where change may be important at national to global scales. Our map comparison results could be used to identify SOC risk where concentrations are high and should be conserved, and where uncertainty is high and further monitoring should be targeted. Reducing inter-map uncertainty will rely on addressing statistical limitations and including covariates that capture convergence of physical factors that produce high SOC contents.

Analytical modelling of soil porosity and bulk density across the soil organic matter and land-use continuum.

The thin layer of soil at the earth's surface supports life, storing water and nutrients for plant uptake. These processes occur in the soil pore space, often half the soil volume, but our understanding of how this volume responds to environmental change is poor. Convention, has been to predict soil porosity, or its reciprocal bulk density (BD), from soil texture using pedotransfer functions (PTFs). A texture based approach, invariant to environmental change, prevents feedback from land use or climate change to soil porosity. Moreover, PTFs are often limited to mineral soils with < 20% soil organic matter (SOM) content. Here, we develop an analytical model to predict soil porosity, or BD, as a function of SOM. We test it on two comprehensive, methodologically consistent, temperate national-scale topsoil data sets (0-15 cm) (Wales, n = 1385; Great Britain, n = 2570). The purpose of the approach is to generate an analytical function suitable for predicting soil porosity change with SOM content, while providing insight into the main grain-scale factors determining the porosity emergence. The newly developed function covering the entire SOM gradient allows for impacts of land use, management or climate change to feedback on soil porosity or bulk density through decadal dynamic changes in SOM.

Carbon and nitrogen cycles in European ecosystems respond differently to global warming.

The global climate is predicted to become significantly warmer over the next century. This will affect ecosystem processes and the functioning of semi natural and natural ecosystems in many parts of the world. However, as various ecosystem processes may be affected to a different extent, balances between different ecosystem processes as well as between different ecosystems may shift and lead to major unpredicted changes. In this study four European shrubland ecosystems along a north-south temperature gradient were experimentally warmed by a novel nighttime warming technique. Biogeochemical cycling of both carbon and nitrogen was affected at the colder sites with increased carbon uptake for plant growth as well as increased carbon loss through soil respiration. Carbon uptake by plant growth was more sensitive to warming than expected from the temperature response across the sites while carbon loss through soil respiration reacted to warming in agreement with the overall Q10 and response functions to temperature across the sites. Opposite to carbon, the nitrogen mineralization was relatively insensitive to the temperature increase and was mainly affected by changes in soil moisture. The results suggest that C and N cycles respond asymmetrically to warming, which may lead to progressive nitrogen limitation and thereby acclimation in plant production. This further suggests that in many temperate zones nitrogen deposition has to be accounted for, not only with respect to the impact on water quality through increased nitrogen leaching where N deposition is high, but also in predictions of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems under future climatic conditions. Finally the results indicate that on the short term the above-ground processes are more sensitive to temperature changes than the below ground processes.

Root-surface phosphatase activity in shrublands across a European gradient: effects of warming.

Root-surface phosphatase activities were measured in natural and semi-natural shrublands across an European climatic gradient of temperature and rainfall including Wales (WL), Denmark (DK), Netherlands (NL), Hungary (HU), Italy (IT) and Spain (SP). In each site a warming experiment was conducted since 1999 or 2001 by means of passive night-time warming using reflective curtains that covered the vegetation at night. The treatments increased yearly average soil temperatures around 0. 8 degrees C in most of sites. Root-surface phosphatase activity values ranged between 56 mg PNP g(-1) h(-1) in IT and 3.5 mg PNP g(-1) h(-1) in HU. Warming had no effect on root-surface phosphatase activity across the sites and only in Hungary a slight increase was detected. Plants at Mediterranean sites (IT, SP) showed a higher root-surface phosphatase activity than plants at temperate sites (WL, NL, DK). We suggest it might be an adaptation of plant species evolved under Mediterranean climate that allows them a) to compensate in wet period for the decrease in phosphatase activity, and thus P uptake, during drought periods, and/or b) to benefit from soluble organic P flushes following the frequent drying-rewetting episodes experienced by soils in Mediterranean ecosystems.

Phosphorus supply influences heathland responses to atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

On an upland moor dominated by pioneer Calluna vulgaris and with an understorey of mosses and lichens, experimental plots were treated with factorial combinations of nitrogen (N) at +0 and +20kg Nha(-1)yr(-1), and phosphorus (P) at +0 and +5kg Pha(-1)yr(-1). Over the 4-year duration of the experiment, the cover of the Calluna canopy increased in density over time as part of normal phenological development. Moss cover increased initially in response to N addition but then remained static; increases in cover in response to P addition became stronger over time, eventually causing reductions in the cover of the dominant Calluna canopy. Lichen cover virtually disappeared within 4 years in plots receiving +20kg Nha(-1)yr(-1) and also in separate plots receiving +10kg Nha(-1)yr(-1), but this effect was reversed by the addition of P.

Challenges in quantifying biosphere-atmosphere exchange of nitrogen species.

Recent research in nitrogen exchange with the atmosphere has separated research communities according to N form. The integrated perspective needed to quantify the net effect of N on greenhouse-gas balance is being addressed by the NitroEurope Integrated Project (NEU). Recent advances have depended on improved methodologies, while ongoing challenges include gas-aerosol interactions, organic nitrogen and N(2) fluxes. The NEU strategy applies a 3-tier Flux Network together with a Manipulation Network of global-change experiments, linked by common protocols to facilitate model application. Substantial progress has been made in modelling N fluxes, especially for N(2)O, NO and bi-directional NH(3) exchange. Landscape analysis represents an emerging challenge to address the spatial interactions between farms, fields, ecosystems, catchments and air dispersion/deposition. European up-scaling of N fluxes is highly uncertain and a key priority is for better data on agricultural practices. Finally, attention is needed to develop N flux verification procedures to assess compliance with international protocols.

Effects of increased deposition of atmospheric nitrogen on an upland Calluna moor: N and P transformations.

This study determined the effects of increased N deposition on rates of N and P transformations in an upland moor. The litter layer and the surface of the organic Oh horizon were taken from plots that had received long-term additions of ammonium nitrate at rates of 40, 80 and 120 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Net mineralisation processes were measured in both field and laboratory incubations. Soil phosphomonoesterase (PME) activity and rates of N(2)O release were measured in laboratory incubations and root-surface PME activity measured in laboratory microcosms using Calluna vulgaris bioassay seedlings. Net mineralisation rates were relatively slow, with net ammonification consistently stimulated by N addition. Net nitrification was marginally stimulated by N addition in the laboratory incubation. N additions also increased soil and root-surface (PME) activity and rates of N(2)O release. Linear correlations were found between litter C:N ratio and all the above processes except net nitrification in field incubations. When compared with data from a survey of European forest sites, values of litter C:N ratio were greater than a threshold below which substantial, N input-related increases in net nitrification rates occurred. The maintenance of high C:N ratios with negligible rates of net nitrification was associated with the common presence of ericaceous litter and a mor humus layer in both this moorland as well as the forest sites.

Effects of increased deposition of atmospheric nitrogen on an upland moor: leaching of N species and soil solution chemistry.

This study was designed to investigate the leaching response of an upland moorland to long-term (10 yr) ammonium nitrate additions of 40, 80 and 120 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) and to relate this response to other indications of potential system damage, such as acidification and cation displacement. Results showed increases in nitrate leaching only in response to high rates of N input, in excess of 96 and 136 kg total N input ha(-1) yr(-1) for the organic Oh horizon and mineral Eag horizon, respectively. Individual N additions did not alter ammonium leaching from either horizon and ammonium was completely retained by the mineral horizon. Leaching of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) from the Oh horizon was increased by the addition of 40 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), but in spite of increases, retention of total dissolved nitrogen reached a maximum of 92% and 95% of 80 kg added N ha(-1) yr(-1) in the Oh and Eag horizons, respectively. Calcium concentrations and calcium/aluminium ratios were decreased in the Eag horizon solution with significant acidification mainly in the Oh horizon leachate. Nitrate leaching is currently regarded as an early indication of N saturation in forest systems. Litter C:N ratios were significantly lowered but values remained above a threshold predicted to increase leaching of N in forests.

Effects of increased deposition of atmospheric nitrogen on an upland moor: nitrogen budgets and nutrient accumulation.

This study was designed to investigate the effect of long-term (11 years) ammonium nitrate additions on standing mass, nutrient content (% and kg ha(-1)), and the proportion of the added N retained within the different compartments of the system. The results showed that more than 90% of all N in the system was found in the soil, particularly in the organic (Oh) horizon. Added N increased the standing mass of vegetation and litter and the N content (kg N ha(-1)) of almost all measured plant, litter and soil compartments. Green tissue P and K content (kg ha(-1)) were increased, and N:P ratios were increased to levels indicative of P limitation. At the lowest treatment, most of the additional N was found in plant/litter compartments, but at higher treatments, there were steep increases in the amount of additional N in the underlying organic and mineral (Eag) horizons. The budget revealed that the proportion of added N found in the system as a whole increased from 60%, 80% and up to 90% in response to the 40, 80 and 120 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) treatments, respectively.

Changes in vegetation and soil characteristics in coastal sand dunes along a gradient of atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

A field survey was conducted to detect signals of atmospheric nitrogen (N) in 11 dune systems along a nitrogen deposition gradient in the United Kingdom. In the mobile and semi-fixed dunes, above-ground biomass was positively related to N inputs. This increase was largely due to increased height and cover of Ammophila arenaria. In the long term, this increased biomass may lead to increased organic matter accumulation and consequently accelerated soil development. In the fixed dunes, above ground biomass also showed a positive relationship with N inputs as did soil C : N ratio while soil available N was negatively related to N inputs. Plant species richness was negatively related to N inputs. In the dune slacks, while soil and bulk vegetation parameters showed no relationship with N inputs, cover of Carex arenaria and Hypochaeris radicata increased. Site mean Ellenberg N numbers showed no relationship with N deposition either within habitats or across the whole dataset. Neither abundance-weighting nor inclusion of the Siebel numbers for bryophytes improved the relationship. The survey reveals that the relationships of soil and vegetation with atmospheric N deposition vary between sand dune habitats but, despite this variability, clear correlations with N inputs exist. While this survey cannot establish causality, on the basis of the relationships observed we suggest a critical load range of 10 - 20 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for coastal sand dunes in the UK.

Phosphorus availability explains patterns in a productivity indicator in temperate semi-natural vegetation.

Plant production is a key process in semi-natural ecosystems, affecting resource provision, carbon storage, and habitat suitability for species of conservation concern. There is debate over whether nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) limits productivity more widely, and whether the pattern of limitation has been affected by widespread atmospheric N pollution. In a national-scale survey, floristic composition was used to derive mean Ellenberg N score (EN) for use as an independent metric of productivity. Much of the variation in EN within extensively-managed habitats could be explained by bulk-soil properties such as total C and moisture contents, reflecting the axis from wet, organic, infertile soils to drier, mineral, fertile soils. However, this main axis of variation was also explained well by bicarbonate-extractable P stock, and P stock was included in the best 88 of 255 possible models for all habitats, or the best 55 of 255 models for extensively-managed habitats. The stock of mineralisable N was much less well able to explain variation in the productivity metric, particularly in extensively-managed habitats. This suggests that P availability is a more widespread constraint to the productivity of semi-natural ecosystems in the UK than is N availability.

Nitrogen deposition and climate effects on soil nitrogen availability: influences of habitat type and soil characteristics.

The amount of plant-available nitrogen (N) in soil is an important indicator of eutrophication of semi-natural habitats, but previous studies have shown contrasting effects of N deposition on mineralisable N in different habitats. The stock of readily mineralisable N (N(rm)) was measured in 665 locations across Britain from a range of intensively and extensively managed habitats, allowing N availability to be studied in relation to soil and vegetation type, and also to variation in climate and in reactive N deposition from the atmosphere. Mineralisable N contents were correlated with deposition in extensively managed habitats but not in intensively managed habitats. The following statements apply only to extensively managed habitats. All habitats showed a similar increase in N(rm) with N deposition. However, soil characteristics affected the relationship, and soil carbon content in particular was a major control on mineralisation. The N(rm) stock increased more with N deposition in organic than in mineral soils. The nitrate proportion of N(rm) also increased with N deposition but, conversely, this increase was greater in mineral than in organic soils. The measurements could be used as indicators of eutrophication, e.g. deposition rates of over 20 kg N ha(-1) y(-1) are associated with nitrate proportions of >41% in a mineral soil (2% carbon), and with N(rm) stocks of over 4.8 kg N ha(-1) in an organic soil (55% carbon). Both N(rm) and nitrate proportion increased with mean annual temperature of the sampling location, despite consistent incubation temperature, suggesting that increasing temperatures are likely to increase the eutrophying effects of N pollution on semi-natural ecosystems.