Influences on emergency department attendance among frail older people with deteriorating health: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the patterns and influences on repeated emergency department attendance among frail older people with deteriorating health. STUDY DESIGN: Multicentre prospective cohort study (International Access Rights and Empowerment II study) with convergent mixed methods design. METHODS: Eligible patients were aged ≥65 years, with Clinical Frailty Score ≥5, and ≥1 hospital admission or ≥2 acute attendances in the previous 6 months. Questionnaires were administered to participants over 6 months and we extracted clinical data from the medical records. We conducted modified Poisson multivariable regression analysis to identify factors associated with repeated emergency department attendance (≥2 over 6 months) and thematic analysis of qualitative interviews. RESULTS: A total of 90 participants were recruited. The mean age was 84 years, and 63% were women. Of 87 participants, 21 experienced repeated emergency department attendance. Severe and/or overwhelming pain (adjusted prevalence ratio 2.44, 95% confidence interval 1.17-5.11), greater number of comorbidities (1.32, 1.08-1.62), ≥10 community nursing contacts (2.93, 1.31-6.56), and a total of ≥2 weeks spent in hospital during the previous 6 months (2.91, 1.24-6.84) were associated with repeated attendance. From 45 interviews, we identified influences on emergency department attendance: 1. inaccessibility of community healthcare; 2. perceived barriers to community healthcare seeking; 3. perceived benefits of hospital admission; 4. barriers to recovery during previous hospital admission (unsuitable food, inactivity); and 5. poorly coordinated transitions between settings. CONCLUSIONS: We identified missed opportunities to optimise older people's recovery during hospital admission, such as improved food and a timely and coordinated discharge, which may reduce reattendances. Proactive care in the community with systematic assessment of symptoms may be required, particularly for those with multimorbidity.

The stability of care preferences following acute illness: a mixed methods prospective cohort study of frail older people.

BACKGROUND: Patient preferences are integral to person-centred care, but preference stability is poorly understood in older people, who may experience fluctuant illness trajectories with episodes of acute illness. We aimed to describe, and explore influences on the stability of care preferences in frail older people following recent acute illness. METHODS: Mixed-methods prospective cohort study with dominant qualitative component, parallel data collection and six-month follow up. STUDY POPULATION: age ≥ 65, Rockwood Clinical Frailty score ≥ 5, recent acute illness requiring acute assessment/hospitalisation. Participants rated the importance of six preferences (to extend life, improve quality of life, remain independent, be comfortable, support 'those close to me', and stay out of hospital) at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks using a 0-4 scale, and ranked the most important. A maximum-variation sub-sample additionally contributed serial in-depth qualitative interviews. We described preference stability using frequencies and proportions, and undertook thematic analysis to explore influences on preference stability. RESULTS: 90/192 (45%) of potential participants consented. 82/90 (91%) answered the baseline questionnaire; median age 84, 63% female. Seventeen undertook qualitative interviews. Most participants consistently rated five of the six preferences as important (range 68-89%). 'Extend life' was rated important by fewer participants (32-43%). Importance ratings were stable in 61-86% of cases. The preference ranked most important was unstable in 82% of participants. Preference stability was supported by five influences: the presence of family support; both positive or negative care experiences; preferences being concordant with underlying values; where there was slowness of recovery from illness; and when preferences linked to long term goals. Preference change was related to changes in health awareness, or life events; if preferences were specific to a particular context, or multiple concurrent preferences existed, these were also more liable to change. CONCLUSIONS: Preferences were largely stable following acute illness. Stability was reinforced by care experiences and the presence of family support. Where preferences were unstable, this usually related to changing health awareness. Consideration of these influences during preference elicitation or advance care planning will support delivery of responsive care to meet preferences. Obtaining longer-term data across diverse ethnic groups is needed in future research.

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. METHODS: We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. RESULTS: By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. CONCLUSIONS: If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need.

Approaches to managing uncertainty in people with life-limiting conditions: role of communication and palliative care.

Patients with any major illness can expect to experience uncertainty about the nature of their illness, its treatment and their prognosis. Prognostic uncertainty is a particular source of patient distress among those living with life-limiting disease. Uncertainty also affects professionals and it has been argued that the level of professional tolerance of uncertainty can affect levels of investigation as well as healthcare resource use. We know that the way in which uncertainty is recognised, managed and communicated can have important impacts on patients' treatment and quality of life. Current approaches to uncertainty in life-limiting illness include the use of care bundles and approaches that focus on communication and education. The experience in communicating in difficult situations that specialist palliative care professionals can provide may also be of benefit for patients with life-limiting illness in the context of uncertainty. While there are a number of promising approaches to uncertainty, as yet few interventions targeted at recognising and addressing uncertainty have been fully evaluated and further research is needed in this area.

What influenced people with chronic or refractory breathlessness and advanced disease to take part and remain in a drug trial? A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment and retention in clinical trials remains an important challenge, particularly in the context of advanced disease. It is important to understand what affects retention to improve trial quality, minimise attrition and reduce missing data. We conducted a qualitative study embedded within a randomised feasibility trial and explored what influenced people to take part and remain in the trial. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study embedded within a double-blind randomised trial (BETTER-B[Feasibility]: BETter TreatmEnts for Refractory Breathlessness) designed using a person-centred approach. Participants with cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), interstitial lung disease (ILD), or chronic heart failure (CHF), with a modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale grade of 3/4 were recruited from three UK sites. A convenience subsample completed qualitative interviews after the trial. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. Results were considered in relation to the core elements of person-centred care and our model of the person-centred trial. RESULTS: In the feasibility trial 409 people were screened for eligibility, and 64 were randomised. No participant was lost to follow-up. Twenty-two participants took part in a qualitative interview. Eleven had a diagnosis of COPD, 8 ILD, 2 CHF and 1 lung cancer. The participants' median age was 71 years (range 56-84). Sixteen were male. Twenty had completed the trial, and two withdrew due to adverse effects. The relationship between patient and professional, potential for benefit, trial processes and the intervention all influenced the decision to participate in the trial. The relationship with the research team and continuity, perceived benefit, and aspects relating to trial processes and the intervention influenced the decision to remain in the trial. CONCLUSIONS: In this feasibility trial recruitment targets were met, attrition levels were low, and aspects of the person-centred approach were viewed positively by trial participants. Prioritisation of the relationship between the patient and professional; person-centred processes, including home visits, assistance with questionnaires, and involvement of the carer; and enabling people to participate by having processes in line with individual capabilities appear to support recruitment and retention in clinical trials in advanced disease. We recommend the integration of a person-centred approach in all clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN32236160. Registered on 13 June 2016.

Mirtazapine for chronic breathlessness? A review of mechanistic insights and therapeutic potential.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic breathlessness is a common and distressing symptom of advanced disease with few effective treatments. Central nervous system mechanisms are important in respiratory sensation and control. Consequently, drugs which may modify processing and perception of afferent information in the brain may have a role. Antidepressants have been proposed; however, current evidence is limited. Of potentially suitable antidepressants, mirtazapine is an attractive option given its tolerability profile, low cost, and wide availability, along with additional potential benefits. Areas covered: The paper provides an overview of the physiology of breathlessness, with an emphasis on central mechanisms, particularly the role of fear circuits and the associated neurotransmitters. It provides a potential rationale for how mirtazapine may improve chronic breathlessness and quality of life in patients with advanced disease. The evidence was identified by a literature search performed in PubMed through to October 2018. Expert opinion: Currently, there is insufficient evidence to support the routine use of antidepressants for chronic breathlessness in advanced disease. Mirtazapine is a promising candidate to pursue, with definitive randomized controlled trials required to determine its efficacy and safety in this setting.