FinnGen provides genetic insights from a well-phenotyped isolated population.

Population isolates such as those in Finland benefit genetic research because deleterious alleles are often concentrated on a small number of low-frequency variants (0.1% ≤ minor allele frequency < 5%). These variants survived the founding bottleneck rather than being distributed over a large number of ultrarare variants. Although this effect is well established in Mendelian genetics, its value in common disease genetics is less explored1,2. FinnGen aims to study the genome and national health register data of 500,000 Finnish individuals. Given the relatively high median age of participants (63 years) and the substantial fraction of hospital-based recruitment, FinnGen is enriched for disease end points. Here we analyse data from 224,737 participants from FinnGen and study 15 diseases that have previously been investigated in large genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We also include meta-analyses of biobank data from Estonia and the United Kingdom. We identified 30 new associations, primarily low-frequency variants, enriched in the Finnish population. A GWAS of 1,932 diseases also identified 2,733 genome-wide significant associations (893 phenome-wide significant (PWS), P < 2.6 × 10-11) at 2,496 (771 PWS) independent loci with 807 (247 PWS) end points. Among these, fine-mapping implicated 148 (73 PWS) coding variants associated with 83 (42 PWS) end points. Moreover, 91 (47 PWS) had an allele frequency of <5% in non-Finnish European individuals, of which 62 (32 PWS) were enriched by more than twofold in Finland. These findings demonstrate the power of bottlenecked populations to find entry points into the biology of common diseases through low-frequency, high impact variants.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer have implications for risk-based screening.

BACKGROUND: Hereditary factors, including single genetic variants and family history, can be used for targeting colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but limited data exist on the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on risk-based CRC screening. METHODS: Using longitudinal health and genomics data on 453,733 Finnish individuals including 8801 CRC cases, we estimated the impact of a genome-wide CRC PRS on CRC screening initiation age through population-calibrated incidence estimation over the life course in men and women. RESULTS: Compared to the cumulative incidence of CRC at age 60 in Finland (the current age for starting screening in Finland), a comparable cumulative incidence was reached 5 and 11 years earlier in persons with high PRS (80-99% and >99%, respectively), while those with a low PRS (< 20%) reached comparable incidence 7 years later. The PRS was associated with increased risk of post-colonoscopy CRC after negative colonoscopy (hazard ratio 1.76 per PRS SD, 95% CI 1.54-2.01). Moreover, the PRS predicted colorectal adenoma incidence and improved incident CRC risk prediction over non-genetic risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that a CRC PRS can be used for risk stratification of CRC, with further research needed to optimally integrate the PRS into risk-based screening.

Magnitude and Time-Trends of Post-Endoscopy Esophageal Adenocarcinoma and Post-Endoscopy Esophageal Neoplasia in a Population-Based Cohort Study: The Nordic Barrett's Esophagus Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Post-endoscopy esophageal adenocarcinoma (PEEC) and post-endoscopy esophageal neoplasia (PEEN) undermine early cancer detection in Barrett's esophagus (BE). We aimed to assess the magnitude and conduct time-trend analysis of PEEC and PEEN among patients with newly diagnosed BE. METHODS: This population-based cohort study was conducted in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden between 2006 and 2020 and included 20,588 patients with newly diagnosed BE. PEEC and PEEN were defined as esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) or high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/EAC, respectively, diagnosed 30-365 days from BE diagnosis (index endoscopy). HGD/EAC diagnosed from 0-29 days and HGD/EAC diagnosed >365 days from BE diagnosis (incident HGD/EAC) were assessed. Patients were followed up until HGD/EAC, death, or end of study period. Incidence rates (IR) per 100,000 person-years with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 293 patients diagnosed with EAC, 69 (23.5%) were categorized as PEEC, 43 (14.7%) as index EAC, and 181 (61.8%) as incident EAC. The IRs/100,000 person-years for PEEC and incident EAC were 392 (95% CI, 309-496), and 208 (95% CI, 180-241), respectively. Among 279 patients diagnosed with HGD/EAC (Sweden only), 17.2% were categorized as PEEN, 14.6% as index HGD/EAC, and 68.1% as incident HGD/EAC. IRs/100,000 person-years for PEEN, and incident HGD/EAC were 421 (95% CI, 317-558), and 285 (95% CI, 247-328), respectively. Sensitivity analyses that varied time interval for occurrence of PEEC/PEEN demonstrated similar results. A time-trend analysis for IRs demonstrated rising incidence rates of PEEC/PEEN. CONCLUSIONS: Almost a quarter of all EACs are detected within a year after an ostensibly negative upper endoscopy in patients with newly diagnosed BE. Interventions to improve detection may reduce PEEC/PEEN rates.

Patterns of reproductive health in inflammatory rheumatic diseases and other immune-mediated diseases: a nationwide registry study.

OBJECTIVES: Rheumatic diseases may impair reproductive success and pregnancy outcomes, but systematic evaluations across diseases are lacking. We conducted a nationwide cohort study to examine the impact of rheumatic diseases on reproductive health measures, comparing the impacts with those of other immune-mediated diseases (IMDs). METHODS: Out of all of the 5 339 804 Finnish citizens, individuals born 1964-1984 and diagnosed with any of the 19 IMDs before age 30 (women) or 35 (men) were matched with 20 controls by birth year, sex, and education. We used data from nationwide health registers to study the impact of IMDs on reproductive health measures, such as reproductive success and, for women, ever having experienced adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. RESULTS: Several of the rheumatic diseases, particularly SLE, JIA, and seropositive RA, were associated with higher rates of childlessness and fewer children. The risks for pre-eclampsia, newborns being small for gestational age, preterm delivery, non-elective Caesarean sections, and need of neonatal intensive care were increased in many IMDs. Particularly, SLE, SS, type 1 diabetes, and Addison's disease showed >2-fold risks for some of these outcomes. In most rheumatic diseases, moderate (1.1-1.5-fold) risk increases were observed for diverse adverse pregnancy outcomes, with similar effects in IBD, celiac disease, asthma, ITP, and psoriasis. CONCLUSION: Rheumatic diseases have a broad impact on reproductive health, with effects comparable with that of several other IMDs. Of the rheumatic diseases, SLE and SS conferred the largest risk increases on perinatal adverse event outcomes.

The new definition of dominant stricture in primary sclerosing cholangitis: Prevalence and clinical significance.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A new definition of dominant stricture (NDS) has recently been defined for patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Prevalence and clinical features of this, compared to traditional dominant stricture (TDS), have not been reported. METHODS: In this single-centre longitudinal prospective cohort study, all PSC patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) between October 2021 and 2022 were recruited. Symptoms of cholestasis, laboratory values (P-alkaline phosphatase, P-Bilirubin), Helsinki PSC-score, brush cytology findings and need for endoscopic therapy (i.e. dilation, stenting) were prospectively collected. RESULTS: Overall, 228 patients with PSC underwent 248 ERCPs. NDS was detected in 43 (17%; 36 patients) and TDS without NDS (TDS group) was detected in 62 (25%; 58 patients) ERCPs, respectively; in the remaining 143 ERCPs, neither TDS nor NDS was seen (no dominant stricture [NoDS] group). PSC duration (median 8 years) and patient's age did not differ between the three groups; males presented more often with NDS. Patients with NDS were more often symptomatic, had higher cholestatic liver enzymes, advanced bile duct disease and markers of biliary inflammation (p < .001). Patients with NDS needed dilation (81%) and stenting (21%) more often than the TDS group (60% and 5%, respectively). Dysplasia in brush cytology was more common in TDS (5%) and NDS (9%) than in NoDS (3%) groups (p = .04), but did not differ between TDS and NDS groups. CONCLUSIONS: Dominant stricture according to the new definition developed in 17% of PSC patients in our cohort and identifies patients with more advanced disease, biliary inflammation and need of endo-therapy.

Protocol liver biopsy predicts graft survival after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The use of protocol liver biopsy to monitor liver allograft status remains controversial. There is limited data from modern transplantation populations that includes protocol biopsies to evaluate its value in predicting clinical outcomes. METHODS: All protocol liver biopsies were identified from 875 patients who underwent liver transplantation at Helsinki University Hospital between 2000 and 2019. Each histologic component was analyzed for its ability to predict long-term outcomes, especially graft survival. We determined the frequency of significant biopsy findings based on the Banff working group definition. Liver function tests (LFTs) and clinical markers were evaluated for their ability to predict significant biopsy findings. RESULTS: In total, 867 protocol liver biopsies were analyzed. Significant findings were identified in 20.1% of the biopsies. In the first protocol biopsy, steatohepatitis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.504, p = .03) and moderate or severe congestion (HR 3.338, p = .04) predicted graft loss. The presence of cholangitis (HR 2.563, p = .04), necrosis (HR 7.635, p < .001), mild congestion (HR 4.291, p = .009), and significant biopsy finding (HR 2.540, p = .02) predicted inferior death-censored graft survival. While the degree of elevation of LFTs was positively associated with significant biopsy findings, the discrimination was poor (AUC .572-.622). Combined LFTs and clinical risk factors remained suboptimal for discriminating significant biopsy findings (AUC .696). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the use of protocol liver biopsies after liver transplantation since they frequently revealed changes associated with long-term outcomes, even when LFTs were normal.

Comparison of Endoscopic Ultrasound and CT Scan in the Diagnosis of Esophageal Duplication Cysts.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Esophageal duplication cysts (EDCs) are rare congenital malformations, often discovered incidentally during endoscopy or on computed tomography (CT) scans. The role of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and CT scan in the diagnosis of these lesions and indications for surgical treatment are underreported. The aim of this study was to investigate these topics in a cohort of patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 2001 and October 2020, 82 patients had a suspicion of esophageal duplication cyst on endoscopic ultrasound. Thirty four of these patients were referred for surgical enucleation of the lesion, but three patients were lost to follow-up. At the end, 31 patients, who underwent surgical treatment for their suspected EDC were included in this study. Clinical features, EUS findings, CT images, surgical treatment, and outcome were collected from hospital health records. CT images were re-evaluated by a chest radiologist. Type of surgery, surgical complications, and final histological diagnosis were reported. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The patients referred for surgery were younger (p = 0.0001) and had larger lesions (> 2 cm; p = 0.005) than the patients who had non-operative follow-up. From thirty-one operated patients, eighteen (58%) had post-operative histological diagnosis of duplication cyst. On EUS the final histological diagnosis was correct in 58% (18/31) of all the operated cases and on CT scan 57% (17/30). CT scan misdiagnosed three of the EDCs but found two leiomyomas correctly. None of these patients developed malignancy. According to this study, neither EUS without fine-needle biopsy nor CT scan alone can differentiate EDCs from other mediastinal masses.

Incidence and Mortality in Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer After Negative Endoscopy for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is associated with an increased risk of cancer of the upper gastrointestinal tract. This study aimed to assess whether and to what extent a negative upper endoscopy in patients with GERD is associated with decreased incidence and mortality in upper gastrointestinal cancer (ie, esophageal, gastric, or duodenal cancer). METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of all patients with newly diagnosed GERD between July 1, 1979 and December 31, 2018 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The exposure, negative upper endoscopy, was examined as a time-varying exposure, where participants contributed unexposed person-time from GERD diagnosis until screened and exposed person-time from the negative upper endoscopy. The incidence and mortality in upper gastrointestinal cancer were assessed using parametric flexible models, providing adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Among 1,062,740 patients with GERD (median age 58 years; 52% were women) followed for a mean of 7.0 person-years, 5324 (0.5%) developed upper gastrointestinal cancer and 4465 (0.4%) died from such cancer. Patients who had a negative upper endoscopy had a 55% decreased risk of upper gastrointestinal cancer compared with those who did not undergo endoscopy (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.43-0.48), a decrease that was more pronounced during more recent years (HR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.30-0.38 from 2008 onward), and was otherwise stable across sex and age groups. The corresponding reduction in upper gastrointestinal mortality among patients with upper endoscopy was 61% (adjusted HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.37-0.42). The risk reduction after a negative upper endoscopy in incidence and mortality lasted for 5 and at least 10 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Negative upper endoscopy is associated with strong and long-lasting decreases in incidence and mortality in upper gastrointestinal cancer in patients with GERD.

Early and accurate detection of cholangiocarcinoma in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis by methylation markers in bile.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is associated with increased risk of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Early and accurate CCA detection represents an unmet clinical need as the majority of patients with PSC are diagnosed at an advanced stage of malignancy. In the present study, we aimed at establishing robust DNA methylation biomarkers in bile for early and accurate diagnosis of CCA in PSC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) was used to analyze 344 bile samples from 273 patients with sporadic and PSC-associated CCA, PSC, and other nonmalignant liver diseases for promoter methylation of cysteine dioxygenase type 1, cannabinoid receptor interacting protein 1, septin 9, and vimentin. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses revealed high AUCs for all four markers (0.77-0.87) for CCA detection among patients with PSC. Including only samples from patients with PSC diagnosed with CCA ≤ 12 months following bile collection increased the accuracy for cancer detection, with a combined sensitivity of 100% (28/28) and a specificity of 90% (20/203). The specificity increased to 93% when only including patients with PSC with longtime follow-up (> 36 months) as controls, and remained high (83%) when only including patients with PSC and dysplasia as controls (n = 23). Importantly, the bile samples from the CCA-PSC ≤ 12 patients, all positive for the biomarkers, included both early-stage and late-stage CCA, different tumor growth patterns, anatomical locations, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Using highly sensitive ddPCR to analyze robust epigenetic biomarkers, CCA in PSC was accurately detected in bile, irrespective of clinical and molecular features, up to 12 months before CCA diagnosis. The findings suggest a potential for these biomarkers to complement current detection and screening methods for CCA in patients with PSC.

Abdominal obesity and alcohol use modify the impact of genetic risk for incident advanced liver disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genetic variants, abdominal obesity and alcohol use are risk factors for incident liver disease (ILD). We aimed to study whether variants either alone or when aggregated into genetic risk scores (GRSs) associate with ILD, and whether waist-hip ratio (WHR) or alcohol use interacts with this risk. METHODS: Our study included 33 770 persons (mean age 50 years, 47% men) who participated in health-examination surveys (FINRISK 1992-2012 or Health 2000) with data on alcohol use, WHR and 63 genotypes associated with liver disease. Data were linked with national health registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalizations, malignancies and death). Exclusions were baseline clinical liver disease. Mean follow-up time was 12.2 years. Cox regression analyses between variants and ILD were adjusted for age, sex and BMI. RESULTS: Variants in PNPLA3, IFNL4, TM6SF2, FDFT1, PPP1R3B, SERPINA1 and HSD17B13 were associated with ILD. GRSs calculated from these variants were not associated with WHR or alcohol use, but were exponentially associated with ILD (up to 25-fold higher risk in high versus low score). The risk of ILD in individuals with high GRS and high WHR or alcohol use compared with those with none of these risk factors was increased by up to 90-fold. GRSs provided new prognostic information particularly in individuals with high WHR. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of multiple genetic variants on the risk of ILD is potentiated by abdominal obesity and alcohol use. Simple GRSs may help to identify individuals with adverse lifestyle who are at a particularly high risk of ILD.

Combined use of the ELF test and CLivD score improves prediction of liver-related outcomes in the general population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Effective and feasible population screening strategies are needed for the early detection of individuals at high risk of future severe liver-related outcomes. We evaluated the predictive performance of the combination of liver fibrosis assessment, phenotype profile, and genetic risk. METHODS: Data from 5795 adults attending the Finnish Health 2000 Survey were linked with healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, hepatocellular cancer, and death). Fibrosis was assessed using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, phenotype profile by the chronic liver disease (CLivD) risk score, and genetic risk by a validated Polygenic Risk Score (PRS-5). Predictive performance was assessed by competing-risk analyses. RESULTS: During a median 13-year follow-up, 64 liver-related outcome events were recorded. ELF, CLivD score, and PRS-5 were independently associated with liver-related outcomes. The absolute 10-year risk of liver-related outcomes at an ELF value of 11.3 ranged from 0.3% to 33% depending on the CLivD score. The CLivD score added 51% of new predictive information to the ELF test and improved areas under the curve (AUCs) from 0.91, 0.81, and 0.71 for ELF alone to 0.95, 0.85, and 0.80, respectively, for ELF combined with the CLivD score at 1, 5, and 10 years. The greatest improvement was for 10-year predictions (delta-AUC 0.097, p < .0001). Adding PRS-5 did not significantly increase predictive performance. Findings were consistent in individuals with obesity, diabetes, or alcohol risk use, and regardless of whether gamma-glutamyltransferase was used in the CLivD score. CONCLUSION: A combination of ELF and CLivD score predicts liver-related outcomes significantly better than the ELF test alone.

Impact on follow-up strategies in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Evidence for the benefit of scheduled imaging for early detection of hepatobiliary malignancies in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is limited. We aimed to compare different follow-up strategies in PSC with the hypothesis that regular imaging improves survival. METHODS: We collected retrospective data from 2975 PSC patients from 27 centres. Patients were followed from the start of scheduled imaging or in case of clinical follow-up from 1 January 2000, until death or last clinical follow-up alive. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A broad variety of different follow-up strategies were reported. All except one centre used regular imaging, ultrasound (US) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Two centres used scheduled endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in addition to imaging for surveillance purposes. The overall HR (CI95%) for death, adjusted for sex, age and start year of follow-up, was 0.61 (0.47-0.80) for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP; 0.64 (0.48-0.86) for US/MRI and 0.53 (0.37-0.75) for follow-up strategies including scheduled ERCP. The lower risk of death remained for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP after adjustment for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or high-grade dysplasia as a time-dependent covariate, HR 0.57 (0.44-0.75). Hepatobiliary malignancy was diagnosed in 175 (5.9%) of the patients at 7.9 years of follow-up. Asymptomatic patients (25%) with CCA had better survival if scheduled imaging had been performed. CONCLUSIONS: Follow-up strategies vary considerably across centres. Scheduled imaging was associated with improved survival. Multiple factors may contribute to this result including early tumour detection and increased endoscopic treatment of asymptomatic benign biliary strictures.

The role of serology, liver function tests and imaging in screening of primary sclerosing cholangitis: the HelPSCreen score.

OBJECIVES: At present, no sensitive or specific screening test exists for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). PSC screening is mainly based on elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to produce a screening score based on laboratory tests to predict the likelihood of PSC. Moreover, we evaluated the additional roles of liver histology and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) in the diagnosis of PSC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data of 385 patients who came for their first endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) to confirm PSC diagnosis were retrieved from the PSC registry of the Helsinki University Hospital. Overall, 69 patients referred for ERC with suspected PSC, in whom PSC was excluded by ERC or liver biopsy and MRCP, served as controls. We included patients' demographics and 13 laboratory test results in the analysis. Variables with significant odds ratios were selected for multivariate logistic regression, which was used to create a novel scoring system for PSC. The presence of IBD, serum perinuclear anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies, and ALP levels demonstrated the highest predictive value for PSC. A score was assigned for each statistically significant predictor. RESULTS: The optimal cut-off point for the score was ≥3, with an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.78-0.88). The addition of liver histology or MRCP findings to the score did not add a predictive value. CONCUSIONS: In conclusion, we created a novel, simple scoring system to screen the probability of PSC. The HelPSCreen-score may help to assess the disease prevalence and to target further investigations in patients suspected of PSC.

PRIMIS: design of a pivotal, randomized, phase 3 study evaluating the safety and efficacy of the nonsteroidal farnesoid X receptor agonist cilofexor in noncirrhotic patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic progressive liver disease leading to biliary fibrosis and cirrhosis. Cilofexor is a nonsteroidal farnesoid X receptor agonist that demonstrated significant improvements in liver biochemistry and markers of cholestasis in patients with PSC in a phase 2 study. We describe here the rationale, design, and implementation of the phase 3 PRIMIS trial, the largest placebo-controlled trial in PSC. METHODS: Adults with large-duct PSC without cirrhosis are randomized 2:1 to receive oral cilofexor 100 mg once daily or placebo for up to 96 weeks during the blinded phase. Patients completing the blinded phase are eligible to receive open-label cilofexor 100 mg daily for up to 96 weeks. The primary objective is to evaluate whether cilofexor reduces the risk of fibrosis progression compared with placebo. Liver biopsy is performed at screening and Week 96 of the blinded phase for histologic assessment of fibrosis. The primary endpoint-chosen in conjunction with guidance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration-is the proportion of patients with ≥ 1-stage increase in fibrosis according to Ludwig histologic classification at week 96. Secondary objectives include evaluation of changes in liver biochemistry, serum bile acids, liver fibrosis assessed by noninvasive methods, health-related quality of life, and safety of cilofexor. CONCLUSION: The phase 3 PRIMIS study is the largest randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in PSC to date and will allow for robust evaluation of the efficacy and safety of cilofexor in noncirrhotic patients with large-duct PSC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03890120; registered 26/03/2019.

Automated image analysis of keratin 7 staining can predict disease outcome in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease that obstructs the bile ducts and causes liver cirrhosis and cholangiocarcinoma. Efficient surrogate markers are required to measure disease progression. The cytokeratin 7 (K7) load in a liver specimen is an independent prognostic indicator that can be measured from digitalized slides using artificial intelligence (AI)-based models. METHODS: A K7-AI model 2.0 was built to measure the hepatocellular K7 load area of the parenchyma, portal tracts, and biliary epithelium. K7-stained PSC liver biopsy specimens (n = 295) were analyzed. A compound endpoint (liver transplantation, liver-related death, and cholangiocarcinoma) was applied in Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to measure AUC values and positive likelihood ratios for each histological variable detected by the model. RESULTS: The K7-AI model 2.0 was a better prognostic tool than plasma alkaline phosphatase, the fibrosis stage evaluated by Nakanuma classification, or K7 score evaluated by a pathologist based on the AUC values of measured variables. A combination of parameters, such as portal tract volume and area of K7-positive hepatocytes analyzed by the model, produced an AUC of 0.81 for predicting the compound endpoint. Portal tract volume measured by the model correlated with the histological fibrosis stage. CONCLUSIONS: The K7 staining of histological liver specimens in PSC provides significant information on disease outcomes through objective and reproducible data, including variables that cannot be measured by a human pathologist. The K7-AI model 2.0 could serve as a prognostic tool for clinical endpoints and as a surrogate marker in drug trials.

Development and validation of a model to predict incident chronic liver disease in the general population: The CLivD score.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Current screening strategies for chronic liver disease focus on detection of subclinical advanced liver fibrosis but cannot identify those at high future risk of severe liver disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident chronic liver disease in the general population based on widely available factors. METHODS: Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to develop prediction models for liver-related outcomes with and without laboratory measures (Modellab and Modelnon-lab) in 25,760 individuals aged 40-70 years. Their data were sourced from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 (derivation cohort). The models were externally validated in the Whitehall II (n = 5,058) and Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) (n = 3,049) cohorts. RESULTS: The absolute rate of incident liver outcomes per 100,000 person-years ranged from 53 to 144. The final prediction model included age, sex, alcohol use (drinks/week), waist-hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, and Modellab also included gamma-glutamyltransferase values. Internally validated Wolbers' C-statistics were 0.77 for Modellab and 0.75 for Modelnon-lab, while apparent 15-year AUCs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.93) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.91). The models identified a small proportion (<2%) of the population with >10% absolute 15-year risk for liver events. Of all liver events, only 10% occurred in participants in the lowest risk category. In the validation cohorts, 15-year AUCs were 0.78 (Modellab) and 0.65 (Modelnon-lab) in the CCHS cohort, and 0.78 (Modelnon-lab) in the Whitehall II cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Based on widely available risk factors, the Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) score can be used to predict risk of future advanced liver disease in the general population. LAY SUMMARY: Liver disease often progresses silently without symptoms and thus the diagnosis is often delayed until severe complications occur and prognosis becomes poor. In order to identify individuals in the general population who have a high risk of developing severe liver disease in the future, we developed and validated a Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk prediction score, based on age, sex, alcohol use, waist-hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, with or without measurement of the liver enzyme gamma-glutamyltransferase. The CLivD score can be used as part of health counseling, and for planning further liver investigations and follow-up.

Laryngeal and Pharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Antireflux Surgery in the 5 Nordic Countries.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify whether antireflux surgery prevents laryngeal and pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) seems to increase the risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: All-Nordic (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) population-based cohort study of adults with documented GERD in 1980 to 2014. First, cancer risk after antireflux surgery was compared to the expected risk in the corresponding background population by calculating standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Second, cancer risk among antireflux surgery patients was compared to nonoperated GERD patients using multivariable Cox regression, providing hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CIs, adjusted for sex, age, calendar period, and diagnoses related to tobacco smoking, obesity, and alcohol overconsumption. RESULTS: Among 814,230 GERD patients, 47,016 (5.8%) underwent antireflux surgery. The overall SIRs and HRs of the combined outcome laryngeal or pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (n=39) were decreased after antireflux surgery [SIR=0.62 (95% CI 0.44-0.85) and HR=0.55 (95% CI 0.38-0.80)]. The point estimates were further decreased >10 years after antireflux surgery [SIR=0.48 (95% CI 0.26-0.80) and HR=0.47 (95% CI 0.26-0.85)]. The risk estimates of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma were particularly decreased >10 years after antireflux surgery [SIR=0.28 (95% CI 0.08-0.72) and HR=0.23 (95% CI 0.08-0.69)], whereas no such decrease over time after surgery was found for pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Analyses of patients with severe GERD (reflux esophagitis or Barrett esophagus) showed similar results. CONCLUSION: Antireflux surgery may decrease the risk of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and possibly also of pharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Mortality, Reoperation, and Hospital Stay Within 90 Days of Primary and Secondary Antireflux Surgery in a Population-Based Multinational Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Absolute rates and risk factors of short-term outcomes after antireflux surgery remain largely unknown. We aimed to clarify absolute risks and risk factors for poor 90-day outcomes of primary laparoscopic and secondary antireflux surgery. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included patients who had primary laparoscopic or secondary antireflux surgery in the 5 Nordic countries in 2000-2018. In addition to absolute rates, we analyzed age, sex, comorbidity, hospital volume, and calendar period in relation to all-cause 90-day mortality (main outcome), 90-day reoperation, and prolonged hospital stay (≥2 days over median stay). Multivariable logistic regression provided odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Among 26,193 patients who underwent primary laparoscopic antireflux surgery, postoperative 90-day mortality and 90-day reoperation rates were 0.13% (n = 35) and 3.0% (n = 750), respectively. The corresponding rates after secondary antireflux surgery (n = 1 618) were 0.19% (n = 3) and 6.2% (n = 94). Higher age (56-80 years vs 18-42 years: OR, 2.66; 95% CI 1.03-6.85) and comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥2 vs 0: OR, 6.25; 95% CI 2.42-16.14) increased risk of 90-day mortality after primary surgery, and higher hospital volume suggested a decreased risk (highest vs lowest tertile: OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.22-1.57). Comorbidity increased the risk of 90-day reoperation. Higher age and comorbidity increased risk of prolonged hospital stay after both primary and secondary surgery. Higher annual hospital volume decreased the risk of prolonged hospital stay after primary surgery (highest vs lowest tertile: OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that laparoscopic antireflux surgery has an overall favorable safety profile in the treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease, particularly in younger patients without severe comorbidity who undergo surgery at high-volume centers.

Novel histological scoring for predicting disease outcome in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive cholestatic liver disease that may lead to liver cirrhosis or cholangiocarcinoma. Liver histology and fibrosis stage are predictive markers of disease progression, and histological cirrhosis is defined as a significant endpoint. PSC-specific histological scoring methods are lacking at present. We aimed to develop a tailored classification system for PSC, the PSC histoscore, based on histological features associated with disease progression. METHODS: In total, 300 PSC patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2018 were enrolled; their data were collected from the PSC registry (Helsinki University Hospital), and liver specimens were obtained from the Biobank of Helsinki. Five histological features included in the adapted Nakanuma scoring system and three additional parameters typical for PSC histology were evaluated and compared with the clinical and laboratory data. A compound endpoint consisting of liver transplantation, development of cholangiocarcinoma, or death was used as outcome measurement. RESULTS: Stage (fibrosis, bile duct loss, ductular reaction, and chronic cholestasis) and grade (portal inflammation, portal edema, hepatitis activity, and cholangitis activity) parameters were found to be independent predictive risk factors for the compound endpoint (P < 0.001). High disease grade (2-6) and stage (2-4) better correlated with clinical endpoints when evaluated with the PSC histoscore system compared to the adapted Nakanuma classification. The risk for disease progression in sequential endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) examinations was increased with elevated total PSC histoscores. CONCLUSION: The PSC histoscore is a novel histological classification system for PSC. Our findings support the applicability of liver histology as a marker for disease progression.