Data-driven stochastic model for cross-interacting processes with different time scales.

In this work, we propose a new data-driven method for modeling cross-interacting processes with different time scales represented by time series with different sampling steps. It is a generalization of a nonlinear stochastic model of an evolution operator based on neural networks and designed for the case of time series with a constant sampling step. The proposed model has a more complex structure. First, it describes each process by its own stochastic evolution operator with its own time step. Second, it takes into account possible nonlinear connections within each pair of processes in both directions. These connections are parameterized asymmetrically, depending on which process is faster and which process is slower. They make this model essentially different from the set of independent stochastic models constructed individually for each time scale. All evolution operators and connections are trained and optimized using the Bayesian framework, forming a multi-scale stochastic model. We demonstrate the performance of the model on two examples. The first example is a pair of coupled oscillators, with the couplings in both directions which can be turned on and off. Here, we show that inclusion of the connections into the model allows us to correctly reproduce observable effects related to coupling. The second example is a spatially distributed data generated by a global climate model running in the middle 19th century external conditions. In this case, the multi-scale model allows us to reproduce the coupling between the processes which exists in the observed data but is not captured by the model constructed individually for each process.

Applying interval stability concept to empirical model of middle Pleistocene transition.

Interval stability is a novel method for the study of complex dynamical systems, allowing for the estimation of their stability to strong perturbations. This method describes how large perturbation should be to disrupt the stable dynamical regime of the system (attractor). In our work, interval stability is used for the first time to study the properties of a real natural system: to analyze the stability of the earth's climate system during the last 2.6×106 years. The main abrupt shift in global climate during this period is the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT), which occurred about 1×106 years ago as a change of the periodicity of glacial cycles from 41 to 100 kyr. On the basis of the empirical nonlinear stochastic model proposed in our recent work, we demonstrate that the global climate stability to any perturbations decreases throughout the Pleistocene period (including the MPT), enhancing its response to fast (with a millennial scale or less) internal disturbances.

Forced signal and predictability in a prototype climate model: Implications for fingerprinting based detection in the presence of multidecadal natural variability.

Advanced numerical models used for climate prediction are known to exhibit biases in their simulated climate response to variable concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols that force a non-uniform, in space and time, secular global warming. We argue here that these biases can be particularly pronounced due to misrepresentation, in these models, of the multidecadal internal climate variability characterized by large-scale, hemispheric-to-global patterns. This point is illustrated through the development and analysis of a prototype climate model comprised of two damped linear oscillators, which mimic interannual and multidecadal internal climate dynamics and are set into motion via a combination of stochastic driving, representing weather noise, and deterministic external forcing inducing a secular climate change. The model time series are paired with pre-specified patterns in the physical space and form, conceptually, a spatially extended time series of the zonal-mean near-surface temperature, which is further contaminated by a spatiotemporal noise simulating the rest of climate variability. The choices of patterns and model parameters were informed by observations and climate-model simulations of the 20th century near-surface air temperature. Our main finding is that the intensity and spatial patterns of the internal multidecadal variability associated with the slow-oscillator model component greatly affect (i) the ability of modern pattern-recognition/fingerprinting methods to isolate the forced response of the climate system in the 20th century ensemble simulations and (ii) climate-system predictability, especially decadal predictability, as well as the estimates of this predictability using climate models in which the internal multidecadal variability is underestimated or otherwise misrepresented.

[On the tactics of management and treatment of patients with congenital cerebral hernias in their localization in the maxillofacial region]. / O taktike vedeniya i lecheniya bol'nykh s vrozhdennymi mozgovymi gryzhami pri ikh lokalizatsii v chelyustno-litsevoi oblasti.

The analysis of the state of two patients with congenital cerebral hernias was carried out, which made it possible to establish differences in the effect of hernias on the state of the body. In the first case, the hernia is localized in the nasal cavity, and after its removal, the postoperative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage was stopped by a flap of the mucous membrane from the opposite side of the nasal septum. In the second case clinical analysis and computed tomography made it possible to state that the hernia was in the retromaxillary space and did not affect the patient's condition. Computed tomography shows signs of moderate blood pressure on the adjacent formations, and removal of the hernia and stopping the subsequent CSF leakage were impossible. The presented observations demonstrate an ambiguous approach to resolving the issue of surgical intervention in such cases.

Agent-Based Simulation of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Russia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health emergency in Russia and across the world. The wavelike spread of the new coronavirus infection, caused by newly emerging variants of the coronavirus, has led to a high incidence rate in all subjects of the Russian Federation. It is becoming extremely topical to get the opportunity to manage the development of the epidemic and assess the impact of certain regulatory measures on this process. This will help government agencies make informed decisions to control the burden on healthcare organizations. It is often impossible to obtain such assessments without using modern mathematical models.

Repeat instability in the 27-39 CAG range of the HD gene in the Venezuelan kindreds: Counseling implications.

The instability of the CAG repeat size of the HD gene when transmitted intergenerationally has critical implications for genetic counseling practices. In particular, CAG repeats between 27 and 35 have been the subject of debate based on small samples. To address this issue, we analyzed allelic instability in the Venezuelan HD kindreds, the largest and most informative families ascertained for HD. We identified 647 transmissions. Our results indicate that repeats in the 27-35 CAG range are highly stable. Out of 69 transmitted alleles in this range, none expand into any penetrant ranges. Contrastingly, 14% of alleles transmitted from the incompletely penetrant range (36-39 CAGs) expand into the completely penetrant range, characterized by alleles with 40 or more CAG repeats. At least 12 of the 534 transmissions from the completely penetrant range contract into the incompletely penetrant range of 36-39 CAG repeats. In these kindreds, none of the individuals with 27-39 CAGs were symptomatic, even though they ranged in age from 11 to 82 years. We expect these findings to be helpful in updating genetic counseling practices.

Thalamic metabolism and symptom onset in preclinical Huntington's disease.

The neural basis for the transition from preclinical to symptomatic Huntington's disease (HD) is unknown. We used serial positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in preclinical HD gene carriers (p-HD) to assess the metabolic changes that occur during this period. Twelve p-HD subjects were followed longitudinally with [11C]-raclopride and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose PET imaging, with scans at baseline, 18 and 44 months. Progressive declines in striatal D2-receptor binding were correlated with concurrent changes in regional metabolism and in the activity of an HD-related metabolic network. We found that striatal D2 binding declined over time (P < 0.005). The activity of a reproducible HD-related metabolic covariance pattern increased between baseline and 18 months (P < 0.003) but declined at 44 months (P < 0.04). These network changes coincided with progressive declines in striatal and thalamic metabolic activity (P < 0.01). Striatal metabolism was abnormally low at all time points (P < 0.005). By contrast, thalamic metabolism was elevated at baseline (P < 0.01), but fell to subnormal levels in the p-HD subjects who developed symptoms. These findings were confirmed with an MRI-based atrophy correction for each individual PET scan. Increases in network expression and thalamic glucose metabolism may be compensatory for early neuronal losses in p-HD. Declines in these measures may herald the onset of symptoms in gene carriers.

Implicit and explicit aspects of sequence learning in pre-symptomatic Huntington's disease.

Learning deficits may be part of the early symptoms of Huntington's disease (HD). Here we characterized implicit and explicit aspects of sequence learning in 11 pre-symptomatic HD gene carriers (pHD) and 11 normal controls. Subjects moved a cursor on a digitizing tablet and performed the following tasks: SEQ: learning to anticipate the appearance of a target sequence in two blocks; VSEQ: learning a sequence by attending to the display without moving for one block, and by moving to the sequence in a successive block (VSEQ test). Explicit learning was measured with declarative scores and number of anticipatory movements. Implicit learning was measured as a strategy change reflected in movement time. By the end of SEQ, pHD had a significantly lower number of correct anticipatory movements and lower declarative scores than controls, while in VSEQ and VSEQ test these indices improved. During all three tasks, movement time changed in controls, but not in pHD. These results suggest that both explicit and implicit aspects of sequence learning may be impaired before the onset of motor symptoms. However, when attentional demands decrease, explicit, but not implicit, learning may improve.

Markov chain Monte Carlo method in Bayesian reconstruction of dynamical systems from noisy chaotic time series.

The impossibility to use the MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods for long noisy chaotic time series (TS) (due to high computational complexity) is a serious limitation for reconstruction of dynamical systems (DSs). In particular, it does not allow one to use the universal Bayesian approach for reconstruction of a DS in the most interesting case of the unknown evolution operator of the system. We propose a technique that makes it possible to use the MCMC methods for Bayesian reconstruction of a DS from noisy chaotic TS of arbitrary long duration.

Visuospatial exploration and art therapy intervention in patients with Parkinson's disease: an exploratory therapeutic protocol.

Though abnormalities of visuospatial function occur in Parkinson's disease, the impact of such deficits on functional independence and psychological wellbeing has been historically under- recognized, and effective treatments for this impairment are unknown. These symptoms can be encountered at any stage of the disease, affecting many activities of daily living, and negatively influencing mood, self-efficacy, independence, and overall quality of life. Furthermore, visuospatial dysfunction has been recently linked to gait impairment and falls, symptoms that are known to be poor prognostic factors. Here, we aim to present an original modality of neurorehabilitation designed to address visuospatial dysfunction and related symptoms in Parkinson's disease, known as "Art Therapy". Art creation relies on sophisticated neurologic mechanisms including shape recognition, motion perception, sensory-motor integration, abstraction, and eye-hand coordination. Furthermore, art therapy may enable subjects with disability to understand their emotions and express them through artistic creation and creative thinking, thus promoting self-awareness, relaxation, confidence and self-efficacy. The potential impact of this intervention on visuospatial dysfunction will be assessed by means of combined clinical, behavioral, gait kinematic, neuroimaging and eye tracking analyses. Potential favorable outcomes may drive further trials validating this novel paradigm of neurorehabilitation.

Modified Bayesian approach for the reconstruction of dynamical systems from time series.

Some recent papers were concerned with applicability of the Bayesian (statistical) approach to reconstruction of dynamic systems (DS) from experimental data. A significant merit of the approach is its universality. But, being correct in terms of meeting conditions of the underlying theorem, the Bayesian approach to reconstruction of DS is hard to realize in the most interesting case of noisy chaotic time series (TS). In this work we consider a modification of the Bayesian approach that can be used for reconstruction of DS from noisy TS. We demonstrate efficiency of the modified approach for solution of two types of problems: (1) finding values of parameters of a known DS by noisy TS; (2) classification of modes of behavior of such a DS by short TS with pronounced noise.

The properties of ion channels formed by the coumarin antibiotic, novobiocin, in lipid bilayers.

The coumarin antibiotic novobiocin forms ion channels of varying conductances in lipid bilayers. The conductances (about 20, 22, 14, 7 and 2 pS for 100 mM NH4Cl, CsCl, KCl, NaCl and LiCl, respectively) and selectivities (cation transference numbers in the range of 0.97-0.98) of one type of novobiocin-induced channel are similar to those found for channels formed by gramicidin A, an antibiotic of very different structure. The conductance of novobiocin channels of this type was independent of the species of the membrane lipid. This observation suggests that novobiocin molecules directly form these channels, and that channels are not formed through defects in lipid structure. The similarity in conductance and ion selectivity between channels induced by novobiocin and those formed by gramicidin A suggests that these structurally different molecules form channels with comparable internal diameter and internal surface charge distribution. Using HPLC purification we argue that the channel-forming activity of novobiocin is related to the activity of the novobiocin molecule itself, and not to a contaminant of the commercially available novobiocin sodium salt preparation.

The effect of sterols on the sensitivity of membranes to the channel-forming antifungal antibiotic, syringomycin E.

The ability of three sterols of different structure to influence the interaction of syringomycin E (an antifungal antibiotic that forms voltage dependent channels in planar lipid bilayers) with a planar lipid bilayer was evaluated. The rate of increase of bilayer conductance induced by syringomycin E was about 1000-times less in bilayers containing 50 mol% of cholesterol compared to bilayers without sterols. The effect of ergosterol (the primary sterol of fungal cells) on the sensitivity of bilayers to syringomycin E was much weaker than that of cholesterol, while stigmasterol (one of the main sterols of plant cells) did not significantly influence the ability of syringomycin E to induce a conductance increase in the bilayer. None of the sterols altered the single channel conductance properties of syringomycin E. These observations suggest that cholesterol affects the sensitivity of target membranes to syringomycin E by enlarging the energy barrier for channel formation rather than participating in channel formation itself.

Reticulocyte cytosol activator protein: effects on the stimulatory and inhibitory regulatory proteins of adenylate cyclase.

Rat reticulocytes contain a cytosol activator protein (RCAP) that augments hormone-sensitive adenylate cyclase activity in the rat reticulocyte and other systems. In a previous publication, using a highly purified preparation of RCAP, we reported that the stimulatory guanine nucleotide-binding protein (Ns) was required for the actions of RCAP. We investigated this possibility by studying the actions of RCAP on cholera toxin-dependent ADP ribosylation of Ns. RCAP decreased cholera toxin-dependent ADP ribosylation of the 42,000-dalton subunit of Ns of reticulocyte [40.2 +/- 3.7 (+/-SEM) to 26.5 +/- 3.8 fmol/mg; n = 10; P less than 0.001], S49 wild-type (33.9 +/- 2.4 to 24.9 +/- 2.8 fmol/mg; n = 9; P less than 0.01), and UNC (25.3 +/- 3.5 vs. 17.6 +/- 3.1; n = 5; P less than 0.02) membranes. In contrast, pertussis toxin-dependent ADP-ribosylation of the inhibitory guanine nucleotide binding protein, Ni in reticulocyte, S49 wild-type lymphoma, and its UNC and cyc- variant membranes were all significantly augmented by RCAP. Moreover, when reticulocyte Ni was functionally ablated by exposure to pertussis toxin, RCAP no longer enhanced isoproterenol-responsive adenylate cyclase activity in reticulocyte membranes. These results suggest that RCAP stimulates adenylate cyclase activity by inhibiting Ni function, thus permitting enhanced Ns coupling to the adenylate cyclase enzyme (C).

Cytosol activator protein from rat reticulocytes requires the stimulatory guanine nucleotide-binding protein for its actions on adenylate cyclase.

Rat reticulocytes contain a cytosol activator protein (RCAP) that augments catecholamine-sensitive adenylate cyclase activity in reticulocyte membranes. A highly purified preparation of RCAP, obtained by Sephacryl S-200 chromatography, was used to elucidate further its mechanism of action. The specific activity of the S-200 fraction to augment isoproterenol responsiveness was increased approximately 1,100-fold over the starting material, from 1.2 to 1,300 nmol cAMP formed per mg RCAP. The mol wt of RCAP is approximately 20,000. The effect of RCAP to enhance isoproterenol responsiveness was apparent within 20 sec, virtually abolishing the normal lag time of hormone-activated adenylate cyclase. In addition to its effects on catecholamine-responsive adenylate cyclase, RCAP significantly increased basal [21 +/- 3 (+/- SEM) to 41 +/- 4 pmol/mg protein X 30 min; P less than 0.02], guanyl-5'-yl-imidodiphosphate-associated (3173 +/- 213 to 4339 +/- 365 pmol/mg X 30 min; P less than 0.03), and fluoride-associated (5152 +/- 64 to 5807 +/- 58 pmol/mg X 30 min; P less than 0.05) adenylate cyclase activities. RCAP also altered the characteristics of agonist binding to the beta-adrenergic receptor of reticulocyte membranes, causing an increase in the apparent IC50 for isoproterenol from 0.7 +/- 0.2 to 7.9 +/- 1.6 microM (P less than 0.001). Similar to its effects on reticulocytes, RCAP enhanced isoproterenol- and prostaglandin E2-sensitive adenylate cyclase activity in the wild-type S49 lymphoma cell and shifted the binding isotherm for isoproterenol rightward. In cyc-, the mutant that lacks the stimulatory guanine nucleotide-binding protein (Ns) and in UNC, the mutant in which receptors are uncoupled from N, RCAP was ineffective. Moreover, RCAP decreased agonist affinity for the beta-adrenergic receptor in wild-type S49 cells, but not in cyc- or UNC cells. These observations suggest that RCAP requires a functional Ns unit for its effects on hormone-sensitive adenylate cyclase activity.

Cognitive performance and regional brain volume in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

BACKGROUND: Brain atrophy has been reported to occur in advancing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, particularly in patients with HIV-related dementia. Atrophy of the caudate region, as assessed by magnetic resonance imaging measures, has been reported to correlate with cognitive impairment in patients with HIV infection; however, differences in the severity of HIV-induced immunosuppression may have contributed to these findings. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between regional brain volumes and cognitive performance in individuals with HIV infection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We evaluated 11 patients with advanced HIV disease by using neuropsychologic tests and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging volume analysis. SETTING: University hospital, involving patients from a clinical trial. RESULTS: Caudate volume, expressed as a ratio of total intracranial volume, correlated with performance on the Trails A and Grooved Pegboard tests, but not with other tests of memory, motor speed, or mood (adjusted for age and education). Hippocampal volume did not correlate with any of the neuropsychologic tests. CONCLUSIONS: Caudate volume in patients with advanced HIV disease is associated with poor performance on neuropsychologic tests of complex motor and sequencing skills. Hippocampal volume does not appear to be related to impairment on neuropsychologic tests. These findings are independent of the degree of immunosuppression and the overall extent of brain atrophy; however, these results must be interpreted with some caution, given the limited sample size.

The metabolic anatomy of Tourette's syndrome.

The functional brain networks underlying the clinical manifestations of Gilles de la Tourette's syndrome (TS) are currently unknown. To identify these networks, we studied TS patients and normal subjects with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and PET employing a statistical model of regional metabolic covariation. We studied 10 TS patients (mean age, 41.5 +/- 12.7 years) who were either drug naive or medication free for at least 2 years. Ten normal volunteers (mean age, 42.5 +/- 11.5) served as controls. We used quantitative FDG/PET to calculate global, regional, and normalized rates of glucose metabolism (GMR, rCMRGlc, and rCMRGlc/GMR) in all subjects. The Scaled Subprofile Model (SSM) was used to identify specific patterns of regional metabolic covariation associated with TS. We found that global and regional metabolic rates were normal in TS. SSM analysis identified two TS-related brain networks. One pattern (15.8% variance accounted for, VAF) was characterized by covariate bilateral metabolic increases in lateral premotor and supplementary motor association cortices and in the midbrain. Individual patient expression of this pattern (subject score) was abnormally increased in the TS group (p < 0.01). A second pattern (10.5% VAF) was characterized by covariate decreases in caudate and thalamic metabolism associated with smaller reductions in lentiform and hippocampal metabolic activity. Subject scores for this pattern correlated with Tourette Syndrome Global Scale (TSGS) global ratings (r = 0.85, p < 0.005). We conclude that the metabolic landscape of TS is characterized by a nonspecific pattern of increased motor cortical activity identified in other hyperkinetic disorders. TS is also associated with a specific brain network characterized by a reduction in the activity of limbic basal ganglia-thalamocortical projection systems.

Metabolic correlates of levodopa response in Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of levodopa on resting-state brain metabolism in PD. BACKGROUND: In previous studies the authors used [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and PET to quantify regional metabolic abnormalities in PD. They found that this disease is characterized reproducibly by a specific abnormal PD-related pattern (PDRP). In this study the authors used IV levodopa infusion to quantify the effects of dopamine replacement on regional metabolism and PDRP network activity. They tested the hypothesis that clinical response to dopaminergic therapy correlates with these metabolic changes. METHODS: The authors used FDG/PET to measure resting-state regional brain metabolism in seven patients with PD (age, 59.4 +/- 4.2 years; Hoehn and Yahr stage, 1.9 +/- 0.7, mean +/- SD); subjects were scanned both off levodopa and during an individually titrated constant-rate IV levodopa infusion. The authors used statistical parametric mapping to identify significant changes in regional brain metabolism that occurred with this intervention. They also quantified levodopa-induced changes in PDRP expression. Metabolic changes with levodopa correlated with clinical improvement as measured by changes in Unified PD Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor scores. RESULTS: Levodopa infusion improved UPDRS motor ratings (30.6% +/- 12.0%, p < 0.002) and significantly decreased regional glucose metabolism in the left putamen, right thalamus, bilateral cerebellum, and left primary motor cortex (p < 0.001). Changes in pallidal metabolism correlated significantly with clinical improvement in UPDRS motor ratings (p < 0.01). Levodopa infusion also resulted in a significant (p = 0.01) decline in PDRP expression. The changes in PDRP activity mediated by levodopa correlated significantly with clinical improvement in UPDRS motor ratings (r = -0.78, p < 0.04). CONCLUSION: Levodopa reduces brain metabolism in the putamen, thalamus, and cerebellum in patients with PD. Additionally, levodopa reduces PD-related pattern activity, and the degree of network suppression correlates with clinical improvement. The response to dopaminergic therapy in Patients with PD may be determined by the modulation of cortico-striato-pallido-thalamocortical pathways.

A controlled trial of deprenyl in children with Tourette's syndrome and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

We conducted a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover study to assess the efficacy of deprenyl for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents with comorbid Tourette's syndrome (TS). Twenty-four subjects (21 boys, 3 girls; mean age 12 years) were enrolled at two sites (University of Rochester and Baylor College of Medicine). The design included two 8-week treatment periods separated by a 6-week washout period. The primary outcome measures for ADHD and tic severity were total scores on the DuPaul Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Scale (DADHS) and the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS). Fifteen subjects completed the study. The primary analysis revealed no statistically significant beneficial effect of deprenyl on the DADHS (mean improvement 1.3; 95% CI, -2.7 to 5.3; p = 0.50). Further post-hoc analyses revealed, however, that the effect of deprenyl in the first period was substantial (p = 0.02). There was a marginally statistically significant beneficial effect of deprenyl on the YGTSS total score (p = 0.06). Deprenyl may improve both ADHD and tics in children with TS and warrants further study.

Effects of levodopa infusion on motor activation responses in Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Clinical improvement with levodopa therapy for PD is associated with specific regional changes in cerebral glucose metabolism. However, it is unknown how these effects of treatment in the resting state relate to alterations in brain function that occur during movement. In this study, the authors used PET to assess the effects of levodopa on motor activation responses and determined how these changes related to on-line recordings of movement speed and accuracy. METHODS: Seven right-handed PD patients were scanned with H(2)15O/PET while performing a predictable paced sequence of reaching movements and while observing the same screen displays and tones. PET studies were performed during "on" and "off" states with an individually titrated constant rate levodopa infusion; movements were kinematically controlled across treatment conditions. RESULTS: Levodopa improved "off" state UPDRS motor ratings (34%; p < 0.006) and movement time (18%; p = 0.001). Spatial errors worsened during levodopa infusion (24%; p = 0.02). Concurrent regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) recordings revealed significant enhancement of motor activation responses in the posterior putamen bilaterally (p < 0.001), left ventral thalamus (p < 0.002), and pons (p < 0.005). Movement time improvement with treatment correlated with rCBF increases in the left globus pallidus and left ventral thalamus (p < 0.01). By contrast, the increase in spatial errors correlated with rCBF increases in the cerebellar vermis (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that levodopa infusion may improve aspects of motor performance while worsening others. Different components of the motor cortico-striato-pallido-thalamo-cortical loop and related pathways may underlie motor improvement and adverse motoric effects of levodopa therapy for PD.