Embracing Challenges for Population Aging in China: Building Scientific Evidence to Inform Long-Term Care Policymaking and Practice.

In China, rapid aging of the population is driving up demand for healthcare and long-term care services for older adults. This special issue of the Journal of Aging & Social Policy features a collection of studies that provided timely analyses and fresh insights into a wide range of policy relevant topics concerning long-term care for older adults in China. In this introductory article, we orient readers to these studies organized under four themes: migration, caregiving, and elder care challenges; long-term care service users, frontline workers, and workforce challenges; unmet needs across the care span in healthcare, long-term care, and end of life care; and long-term care financing. We highlight major findings and contributions of each study and provide perspectives on key issues within China's evolving healthcare and social policy contexts. Collectively, these studies contribute to building scientific evidence where it is lacking and supporting evidence-based long-term care policymaking and practice to meet the mounting challenges of population aging in China.

Unmet Needs and Associated Factors among Community-living Older People with Disability in China: 2005-2014.

Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 2005 to 2014, this study estimated the prevalence and examined risk factors of under-met needs and completely unmet needs for assistance in activities of daily living (ADLs) among community-living older people with disability in China. As of 2014, over 50% of community-living Chinese elders with disability experienced under-met needs, and nearly 5% had completely unmet needs. From 2005 to 2014, the proportion with completely unmet needs doubled for all disabled elders. Significant risk factors of under-met needs included lower per capita annual household income, more ADL limitations, living alone, and fewer living children, and those of completely unmet needs included less ADL limitations and living alone. More policy attention should be paid to address the gap between long-term care services for older persons with severe disability and supportive services for those who are relatively healthy, toward ultimately establishing a care continuum for the elderly at all stages of their life course. In addition, family care for elders with severe functional impairments should be supplemented by professional long-term care services to best meet their needs.

China's Ambitious Policy Experiment with Social Long-Term Care Insurance: Promises, Challenges, and Prospects.

In 2016, China launched long-term care insurance (LTCI) pilot programs in 15 cities across the country. In this Commentary, we provide an overview of these pilots regarding the target insured population, sources of financing, beneficiary eligibility criteria, and benefit design. We offer perspectives on the strengths and limitations, implementation challenges, and future prospects of these ongoing pilots. Also, we highlight the needs for addressing several key policy issues and challenges before further expanding these programs toward national implementation. These include solidifying the LTCI financing pool for independence and self-sustainability, balancing national priorities and local needs in LTCI design, reducing coverage gaps and disparities, ensuring quality of care through pay-for-performance and regulatory oversight, and strengthening independent evaluation of LTCI implementation and impacts.

China is piloting public social insurance as its core long-term care financing strategy.Current long-term care insurance pilots vary greatly in program design across pilot sites.Long-term care insurance financing should move away from current over-reliance on existing health insurance funds toward independence and self-sustainability.While balancing national priorities, it is essential to design and implement appropriate long-term care insurance programs locally.China should dedicate time and resources to allow for sufficient policy learning, adaption, and evaluation through ongoing pilot programs.

CMS Initiative to Reduce Potentially Avoidable Hospitalizations Among Long-Stay Nursing Facility Residents: Lessons Learned.

Policy Points Misaligned incentives between Medicare and Medicaid may result in avoidable hospitalizations among long-stay nursing home residents. Providing nursing homes with clinical staff, such as nurse practitioners, was more effective in reducing resident hospitalizations than providing Medicare incentive payments alone. CONTEXT: In 2012, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services implemented the Initiative to Reduce Avoidable Hospitalizations Among Nursing Facility Residents. In Phase 1 (2012 to 2016), clinical or education-based interventions (Clinical-Only) aimed to reduce hospitalizations among long-stay nursing home residents. In Phase 2 (2016 to 2020), the Initiative also included a Medicare payment incentive for treating residents with certain conditions within the nursing home. Nursing homes participating in Phase 1 continued their previous interventions and received the incentive (Clinical + Payment) and others received the incentive only (Payment-Only). METHODS: Mixed methods were used to determine the effectiveness of the Initiative and explore facilitators of and barriers to implementation that participating nursing homes experienced. We used telephone and in-person interviews to investigate aspects of implementation and a difference-in-differences regression model framework comparing residents in participating and nonparticipating nursing homes to determine the effect of the Initiative on measures of utilization, expenditures, and quality. FINDINGS: Three key components were necessary for successful implementation of the Initiative-staff retention and leadership stability, leadership and staff support, and provider engagement and support. Nursing homes that lacked one or more of these three components experienced greater challenges. The Clinical-Only intervention in Phase 1 was successful in reducing hospitalizations. We did not find evidence that the Clinical + Payment or Payment-Only interventions were successful in reducing hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing hospitalizations among nursing home residents hinges upon the availability and support of clinical staff who can provide ongoing education to direct-care staff in the nursing home, as well as hands-on care. Use of Medicare payment incentives alone to encourage on-site treatment of residents was insufficient to reduce hospitalizations. Unless nursing homes are adequately staffed to treat residents with acute care needs, further reductions in hospitalizations will be difficult to achieve.

Long-term care system for older adults in China: policy landscape, challenges, and future prospects.

In China, the population is rapidly ageing and the capacity of the system that cares for older people is increasingly a concern. In this Review, we provide a profile of the long-term care system and policy landscape in China. The long-term care system is characterised by rapid growth of the residential care sector, slow development of home and community-based services, and increasing involvement of the private sector. The long-term care workforce shortage and weak quality assurance are concerning. Public long-term care financing is minimal and largely limited to supporting welfare recipients and subsidising the construction of residential care beds and operating costs. China is piloting social insurance long-term care financing models and, concurrently, programmes for integrating health care and long-term care services in selected settings across the country; the effectiveness and sustainability of these pilots remain to be seen. Informed by international long-term care experiences, we offer policy recommendations to strengthen the evolving care system for older people in China.

Effects of Integrating Care for Medicare-Medicaid Dually Eligible Seniors in Minnesota.

Individuals dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid often receive fragmented and inefficient care. Using Minnesota fee-for-service claims, managed care encounters, and enrollment data for 2010-2012, we estimated the likely impact of Minnesota Senior Health Option (MSHO)-seen as the first statewide fully integrated Medicare-Medicaid model-on health care and long-term services and supports use, relative to Minnesota Senior Care Plus (MSC+), a Medicaid-only managed care plan with Medicare fee for service. Estimates suggest that MSHO enrollees had significantly higher use of primary care and, potentially, of community-based services, combined with lower use of hospital-based care than similar MSC+ enrollees. Adopting fully integrated care models like MSHO may have merit in other states.

Global Convergence: Aging and Long-Term Care Policy Challenges in the Developing World.

Aging around the world poses a global challenge in eldercare. This challenge is particularly felt in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where population aging outpaces the development of aged care policies and services. This Perspective highlights the phenomenon of global convergence in several unsettling trends and challenges shared across LMICs. These include the weakening of informal family care systems for the elderly, growing need for formal long-term care of the frail and disabled who can no longer be adequately supported by family members, and mounting pressures for policy responses to tackle these societal challenges. It is argued that policymakers should take a proactive stance. That is, when family care for the elderly falls short and family caregivers are increasingly under strain, the government should step in and step up support to fill in the gap by developing appropriate policies and a continuum of long-term care services that are accessible and affordable for the majority of older people in need. Three general principles are then suggested with regard to long-term care provision, financing, and quality assurance, which transcend national borders and can be used to guide long-term care policymaking across LMICs.

The origin and disposition of Medicare observation stays.

BACKGROUND: Growing use of hospital observation care continues unabated despite growing concerns from Medicare beneficiaries, patient advocacy groups, providers, and policy makers. Unlike inpatient stays, outpatient observation stays are subject to 20% coinsurance and do not count toward the 3-day stay required for Medicare coverage of skilled nursing facility (SNF) care. Despite the policy relevance, we know little about where patients originate or their discharge disposition following observation stays, making it difficult to understand the scope of unintended consequences for beneficiaries, particularly those needing postacute care in a SNF. OBJECTIVE: To determine Medicare beneficiaries' location immediately preceding and following an observation stay. RESEARCH DESIGN: We linked 100% Medicare Inpatient and Outpatient claims data with the Minimum Data Set for nursing home resident assessments. We then flagged observation stays and conducted a descriptive claims-based analysis of where beneficiaries were immediately before and after their observation stay. RESULTS: Most patients came from (92%) and were discharged to (90%) the community. Of >1 million total observation stays in 2009, just 7537 (0.75%) were at risk for high out-of-pocket expenses related to postobservation SNF care. Beneficiaries with longer observation stays were more likely to be discharged to SNF. CONCLUSIONS: With few at risk for being denied Medicare SNF coverage due to observation care, high out-of-pocket costs resulting from Medicare outpatient coinsurance requirements for observation stays seem to be of greater concern than limitations on Medicare coverage of postacute care. However, future research should explore how observation stay policy might decrease appropriate SNF use.

Effect of nursing home ownership on hospitalization of long-stay residents: an instrumental variables approach.

Hospitalizations among nursing home residents are frequent, expensive, and often associated with further deterioration of resident condition. The literature indicates that a substantial fraction of admissions is potentially preventable and that nonprofit nursing homes are less likely to hospitalize their residents. However, the correlation between ownership and hospitalization might reflect unobserved resident differences rather than a causal relationship. Using national minimum data set assessments linked with Medicare claims, we use a national cohort of long-stay residents who were newly admitted to nursing homes within an 18-month period spanning January 1, 2004 and June 30, 2005. After instrumenting for ownership status, we found that IV estimates of the effect of nonprofit ownership on hospitalization are at least as large as the non-instrumented effects, indicating that selection bias does not explain the observed relationship. We also found evidence suggesting the lower rate of hospitalizations among nonprofits was due to a different threshold for transfer.

Outcomes for Long-Stay Nursing Facility Residents Following On-Site Acute Care under a CMS Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to describe outcomes of long-term nursing facility (NF) residents treated for one of 6 conditions on-site in the NF and to compare outcomes to those treated for the same conditions in the hospital. DESIGN: Cross-sectional retrospective study. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Initiative to Reduce Avoidable Hospitalizations among Nursing Facility Residents-Payment Reform enabled participating NFs to bill Medicare for providing on-site care to eligible long-stay residents meeting specified severity criteria due to any of 6 medical conditions, as an alternative to hospitalization. For billing purposes, residents were required to meet clinical criteria severe enough to warrant hospitalization. METHODS: We used the Minimum Data Set assessments to identify eligible long-stay NF residents. We used Medicare data to identify residents who were treated, either on-site or in the hospital, for the 6 conditions and measure outcomes including subsequent hospitalization and death. To compare residents treated in the 2 modes, we used logistic regression models and adjusted for demographics, functional and cognitive status, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Among residents treated on-site for the 6 conditions, 13.6% were subsequently hospitalized and 7.8% died, within 30 days, compared to 26.5% and 17.0%, respectively, among those treated in the hospital. Based on multivariate analysis, those treated in the hospital were more likely to be readmitted (OR = 1.666, P < .001) or to die (OR = 2.251, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Although unable to fully account for differences in unobserved severity of illness between residents treated on-site vs in the hospital, our results do not indicate any harm, but rather a possible benefit, to being treated on-site.

Rates of nursing home closures were relatively stable over the past decade, but warrant continuous monitoring.

For years, nursing home closures have been a concern for the industry, policymakers, consumer advocates, and other stakeholders. We analyzed data from 2011 through 2021 and did not find persistent increases in the closure rates. Closures were relatively stable from 2011 to 2017, averaging 118 facilities (0.79%) per year and increasing to 143 (0.96%) in 2018 and 200 (1.34%) in 2019. Closures decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, averaging 133 facilities in 2020 and 2021 (0.90%). Medicaid-only nursing facilities had higher closure rates than Medicare-only skilled-nursing facilities and dually certified nursing homes. The Census regions (divisions) of the South (West South Central) and Northeast (New England) had the highest closure rates, while the South (South Atlantic and East South Central) had the lowest rates. Facility characteristics associated with increased closure risk included smaller size, lower occupancy rate, urban location, no ownership changes, lower inspection survey ratings, higher staffing ratings, higher percentages of non-White residents and Medicaid residents, lower percentages of Medicare residents and residents with severe acuity, and location in states with more nursing home alternatives. Additional research should examine the impact of closures on resident outcomes and access to care.

Implementation of a CMS Nursing Facility Initiative: Differences by Racial Minority Resident Population.

Objectives: The CMS Initiative to Reduce Avoidable Hospitalizations Among Nursing Facility Residents: Payment Reform (NFI 2) provided billing opportunities to incentivize participating facilities to keep long-stay residents onsite for acute care, rather than hospitalizing them. We examined cross-facility differences in NFI 2 implementation by racial composition of facility resident populations. Methods: We analyzed Medicare claims in conjunction with in-person and telephone interviews among facility staff to assess NFI 2 engagement in relation to racial minority resident population. Results: Participating facilities with larger racial minority resident populations faced additional barriers to NFI 2 implementation. These facilities submitted fewer NFI 2 claims, reported more challenges engaging resident families, and experienced greater facility staff and leadership instability, compared to facilities with predominantly white resident populations. Discussion: Addressing structural differences within facilities with larger populations of racial minority residents may encourage future development of targeted programs to support diverse nursing facilities.

Improving direct-care compensation in nursing homes: Medicaid wage pass-through adoption, 1999-2004.

Because states play such a prominent role in the U.S. health care system, they have long grappled with how to best control health care costs while maintaining high quality of care. There are many policy tools available to address efficiency and quality concerns--from pure state regulation to market-oriented competition designs. Given public discourse and official party platforms, one would assume that states controlled by Democrats would be more likely to adopt regulatory reforms. This study examines whether party control, as well as other economic and political factors, is associated with adopting wage pass-through (WPT) policies, which direct a portion of Medicaid reimbursement or its increase toward nursing home staff in an effort to reduce staff turnover, thereby increasing efficiency and the quality of care provided. Contrary to expectations, results indicate that states with Republican governors were against WPT adoption only when for-profit industry pressure increased; otherwise, they were more likely to favor adoption than their Democratic counterparts. This suggests a more complex relationship between partisanship and state-level policy adoption than is typically assumed. Results also indicate that state officials reacted predictably to prevailing political and economic conditions affecting state fiscal-year decisions but required sufficient governing capacity to successfully integrate WPTs into existing reimbursement system arrangements. This suggests that WPTs represent a hybrid between comprehensive and incremental policy change.

Treating in Place: Acute Care for Long-Stay Residents in Nursing Facilities Under a CMS Initiative.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Nursing facility (NF) residents are commonly hospitalized, and many of these hospitalizations may be avoidable. A Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) initiative enables participating NFs to bill Medicare for providing on-site acute care to long-stay residents diagnosed with one of six ambulatory care sensitive conditions (pneumonia, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dehydration, skin infection, and urinary tract infection) that account for many avoidable hospitalizations. This study describes the frequency of initiative-related treatment for the six conditions, both on site and in the hospital, and the health status of residents who were treated. DESIGN: We used the Minimum Data Set V3.0 and Medicare data to identify eligible residents, detect on-site treatment under the initiative as well as in-hospital treatment both before and during the initiative, and measure health status. SETTING: Participating NFs during fiscal years 2017 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: There were 47,202 long-stay NF residents from 260 facilities in seven states. INTERVENTION: CMS initiative to reduce avoidable hospitalizations among NF residents-payment reform. MEASUREMENTS: Percentage per year who received on-site treatment (2017-2018), and who received in-hospital treatment (2014-2018), for the six conditions. RESULTS: Each year, approximately 20% of residents received treatment on site during 2017 to 2018, and under 10% received treatment in the hospital during 2014 to 2018, with little change over these years. Residents treated on site had less chronic illness than those treated in the hospital. CONCLUSION: Although the initiative sought to reduce hospitalizations, in-hospital treatment for the six conditions did not substantially change after initiative implementation, despite substantial new billing for on-site treatment for those conditions. These findings suggest that many residents treated on site would likely not have been hospitalized even absent the initiative. The residents treated on site tended to have fewer chronic conditions than those treated in the hospital.

Aiming Higher: Advancing Public Social Insurance for Longterm Care to Meet the Global Aging Challenge Comment on "Financing Long-term Care: Lessons From Japan".

Globally, aging populations are driving the demand for long-term care (LTC) services for a growing number of older people with disabilities or chronic illnesses. A key challenge for policy-makers in all countries is to find a comprehensive solution to financing LTC services to make them widely accessible, affordable, and equitable for all in need. In this commentary, we make a case for LTC policy-makers and reformers across countries to take a long-term vision toward establishing a public, mandatory social insurance model of LTC financing. We first take a hard look at the LTC financing problems and the limitations of existing financing options. We then argue for a public social insurance approach to LTC financing and offer insights into several top-level insurance design features that are key to successful implementation of a public social insurance model, building on the experiences and lessons learned from Japan and other countries that have already "gotten there." We conclude with additional thoughts on the future of public LTC insurance in a global context, including the prospect of spreading this model to middle-income countries.

Reducing Transfers among Long-Stay Nursing Facility Residents to Acute Care Settings: Effect of the 2013‒2016 Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: From 2013 to 2016, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Initiative to Reduce Avoidable Hospitalizations among Nursing Facility Residents ("the Initiative") tested a series of clinical interventions and care models, through organizations called Enhanced Care and Coordination Providers (ECCPs), with the goal of reducing avoidable inpatient hospital admissions among long-stay nursing home residents. We identify the effect of the Initiative on the probability and count of acute care transfers [capturing any transfer to the hospital, including hospitalizations (inpatient stays), emergency department visits, and observation stays]. DESIGN: We evaluate the effect of the Initiative on the probability and count of all-cause acute care transfers and potentially avoidable acute care transfers and estimate the average effect of the Initiative per resident per year. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We use 2011-2016 data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Minimum Data Set, version 3.0, nursing home resident assessments linked with Medicare eligibility and enrollment data and Medicare inpatient and outpatient hospital claims. Our sample is limited to Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in participating ECCP facilities and a comparison group of long-stay nursing facility residents. METHODS: We evaluate the effect of the Initiative on both the probability and count of all-cause acute care transfers and potentially avoidable acute care transfers using difference-in-differences regression models controlling for both resident-level clinical and demographic characteristics as well as facility-level characteristics. RESULTS: We found statistically significant evidence of a reduction in both the probability and count of all-cause and potentially avoidable acute care transfers among long-stay nursing facility residents who participated in the Initiative, relative to comparison group residents. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The clinical interventions and care models implemented by the ECCPs show that by using staff education, facility leadership and physician engagement, and/or clinical assessment and treatment of residents who experienced a change in condition, it is possible to reduce acute care transfers of nursing facility residents. This could lead to better outcomes and reduced cost of care for this vulnerable patient population.

The costs of turnover in nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: Turnover rates in nursing homes have been persistently high for decades, ranging upwards of 100%. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the net costs associated with turnover of direct care staff in nursing homes. DATA AND SAMPLE: Nine hundred two nursing homes in California in 2005. Data included Medicaid cost reports, the Minimum Data Set, Medicare enrollment files, Census, and Area Resource File. RESEARCH DESIGN: We estimated total cost functions, which included in addition to exogenous outputs and wages, the facility turnover rate. Instrumental variable limited information maximum likelihood techniques were used for estimation to deal with the endogeneity of turnover and costs. RESULTS: The cost functions exhibited the expected behavior, with initially increasing and then decreasing returns to scale. The ordinary least square estimate did not show a significant association between costs and turnover. The instrumental variable estimate of turnover costs was negative and significant (P = 0.039). The marginal cost savings associated with a 10% point increase in turnover for an average facility was $167,063 or 2.9% of annual total costs. CONCLUSION: The net savings associated with turnover offer an explanation for the persistence of this phenomenon over the last decades, despite the many policy initiatives to reduce it. Future policy efforts need to recognize the complex relationship between turnover and costs.

Determinants of performance failure in the nursing home industry.

This study investigates the determinants of performance failure in U.S. nursing homes. The sample consisted of 91,168 surveys from 10,901 facilities included in the Online Survey Certification and Reporting system from 1996 to 2005. Failed performance was defined as termination from the Medicare and Medicaid programs. Determinants of performance failure were identified as core structural change (ownership change), peripheral change (related diversification), prior financial and quality of care performance, size and environmental shock (Medicaid case mix reimbursement and prospective payment system introduction). Additional control variables that could contribute to the likelihood of performance failure were included in a cross-sectional time series generalized estimating equation logistic regression model. Our results support the contention, derived from structural inertia theory, that where in an organization's structure change occurs determines whether it is adaptive or disruptive. In addition, while poor prior financial and quality performance and the introduction of case mix reimbursement increases the risk of failure, larger size is protective, decreasing the likelihood of performance failure.

Use of physical restraints and antipsychotic medications in nursing homes: a cross-national study.

OBJECTIVES: This study compares inter- and intra-country differences in the prevalence of physical restraints and antipsychotic medications in nursing homes, and examines aggregated resident conditions and organizational characteristics correlated with these treatments. METHODS: Population-based, cross-sectional data were collected using a standardized Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI) from 14,504 long-term care facilities providing nursing home level services in five countries participating in the interRAI consortium, including Canada, Finland, Hong Kong (Special Administrative Region, China), Switzerland, and the United States. Facility-level prevalence rates of physical restraints and antipsychotic use were examined both between and within the study countries. RESULTS: The prevalence of physical restraint use varied more than five-fold across the study countries, from an average 6% in Switzerland, 9% in the US, 20% in Hong Kong, 28% in Finland, and over 31% in Canada. The prevalence of antipsychotic use ranged from 11% in Hong Kong, between 26-27% in Canada and the US, 34% in Switzerland, and nearly 38% in Finland. Within each country, substantial variations existed across facilities in both physical restraint and antipsychotic use rates. In all countries, neither facility case mix nor organizational characteristics were particularly predictive of the prevalence of either treatment. CONCLUSIONS: There exists large, unexplained variability in the prevalence of physical restraint and antipsychotic use in nursing home facilities both between and within countries. Since restraints and antipsychotics are associated with adverse outcomes, it is important to understand the idiosyncratic factors specific to each country that contribute to variation in use rates.