Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US.

Importance: In the US, states enacted nonpharmaceutical interventions, including school closure, to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). All 50 states closed schools in March 2020 despite uncertainty if school closure would be effective. Objective: To determine if school closure and its timing were associated with decreased COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: US population-based observational study conducted between March 9, 2020, and May 7, 2020, using interrupted time series analyses incorporating a lag period to allow for potential policy-associated changes to occur. To isolate the association of school closure with outcomes, state-level nonpharmaceutical interventions and attributes were included in negative binomial regression models. States were examined in quartiles based on state-level COVID-19 cumulative incidence per 100 000 residents at the time of school closure. Models were used to derive the estimated absolute differences between schools that closed and schools that remained open as well as the number of cases and deaths if states had closed schools when the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was in the lowest quartile compared with the highest quartile. Exposures: Closure of primary and secondary schools. Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19 daily incidence and mortality per 100 000 residents. Results: COVID-19 cumulative incidence in states at the time of school closure ranged from 0 to 14.75 cases per 100 000 population. School closure was associated with a significant decline in the incidence of COVID-19 (adjusted relative change per week, -62% [95% CI, -71% to -49%]) and mortality (adjusted relative change per week, -58% [95% CI, -68% to -46%]). Both of these associations were largest in states with low cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the time of school closure. For example, states with the lowest incidence of COVID-19 had a -72% (95% CI, -79% to -62%) relative change in incidence compared with -49% (95% CI, -62% to -33%) for those states with the highest cumulative incidence. In a model derived from this analysis, it was estimated that closing schools when the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was in the lowest quartile compared with the highest quartile was associated with 128.7 fewer cases per 100 000 population over 26 days and with 1.5 fewer deaths per 100 000 population over 16 days. Conclusions and Relevance: Between March 9, 2020, and May 7, 2020, school closure in the US was temporally associated with decreased COVID-19 incidence and mortality; states that closed schools earlier, when cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was low, had the largest relative reduction in incidence and mortality. However, it remains possible that some of the reduction may have been related to other concurrent nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Increasing Physician Reporting of Diagnostic Learning Opportunities.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 10% of Americans experience a diagnostic error annually, yet little is known about pediatric diagnostic errors. Physician reporting is a promising method for identifying diagnostic errors. However, our pediatric hospital medicine (PHM) division had only 1 diagnostic-related safety report in the preceding 4 years. We aimed to improve attending physician reporting of suspected diagnostic errors from 0 to 2 per 100 PHM patient admissions within 6 months. METHODS: Our improvement team used the Model for Improvement, targeting the PHM service. To promote a safe reporting culture, we used the term diagnostic learning opportunity (DLO) rather than diagnostic error, defined as a "potential opportunity to make a better or more timely diagnosis." We developed an electronic reporting form and encouraged its use through reminders, scheduled reflection time, and monthly progress reports. The outcome measure, the number of DLO reports per 100 patient admissions, was tracked on an annotated control chart to assess the effect of our interventions over time. We evaluated DLOs using a formal 2-reviewer process. RESULTS: Over the course of 13 weeks, there was an increase in the number of reports filed from 0 to 1.6 per 100 patient admissions, which met special cause variation, and was subsequently sustained. Most events (66%) were true diagnostic errors and were found to be multifactorial after formal review. CONCLUSIONS: We used quality improvement methodology, focusing on psychological safety, to increase physician reporting of DLOs. This growing data set has generated nuanced learnings that will guide future improvement work.