Early prediction of hospital admission for emergency department patients: a comparison between patients younger or older than 70 years.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop models that predict hospital admission to ED of patients younger and older than 70 and compare their performance. METHODS: Prediction models were derived in a retrospective observational study of all patients≥18 years old visiting the ED of a university hospital during the first 6 months of 2012. Patients were stratified into two age groups (<70 years old and ≥70 years old). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of hospital admission among factors available immediately after patient arrival to the ED. Validation of the prediction models was performed on patients presenting to the ED during the second half of the year 2012. RESULTS: 10 807 patients were included in the derivation and 10 480 in the validation cohorts. The strongest independent predictors of hospital admission among the 8728 patients <70 years old were age, sex, triage category, mode of arrival, performance of blood tests, chief complaint, ED revisit, type of specialist, phlebotomised blood sample and all vital signs. The area under the curve (AUC) of the validation cohort for those <70 years old was 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87). Among the 2079 patients ≥70 years, the same factors were predictive, except for gender, type of specialist and heart rate; the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.79). The prediction models could identify a group of 10% of patients with the highest risk in whom hospital admission was predicted at ED triage, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in younger patients and PPV of 87% (95% CI 81% to 92%) in older patients. CONCLUSION: Demographic and clinical factors readily available early in the ED visit can be useful in identifying patients who are likely to be admitted to the hospital. While the model for the younger patients had a higher AUC, the model for older patients had a higher PPV in identifying the patients at highest risk for admission. Of note, heart rate was not a useful predictor in the older patients.

Prediction of 90-day mortality in older patients after discharge from an emergency department: a retrospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Older people frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and have a high risk of poor outcome as compared to their younger counterparts. Our aim was to study routinely collected clinical parameters as predictors of 90-day mortality in older patients attending our ED. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the Leiden University Medical Center (The Netherlands) among patients aged 70 years or older attending the ED in 2012. Predictors were age, gender, time and way of arrival, presenting complaint, consulting medical specialty, vital signs, pain score and laboratory testing. Cox regression analyses were performed to analyse the association between these predictors and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: Three thousand two hundred one unique patients were eligible for inclusion. Ninety-day mortality was 10.5 % for the total group. Independent predictors of mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.04-1.08), referral from another hospital (HR 2.74, 95 % CI 1.22-6.11), allocation to a non-surgical specialty (HR: 1.55, 95 % CI 1.13-2.14), increased respiration rate (HR up to 2.21, 95 % CI 1.25-3.92), low oxygen saturation (HR up to 1.96, 95 % CI 1.19-3.23), hypothermia (HR 2.27, 95 % CI 1.28-4.01), fever (HR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.24-0.75), high pain score (HR 1.55, 95 % CI 1.03-2.32) and the indication to perform laboratory testing (HR 3.44, 95 % CI 2.13-5.56). CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected parameters at the ED can predict 90-day mortality in older patients presenting to the ED. This study forms the first step towards creating a new and simple screening tool to predict and improve health outcome in acutely presenting older patients.

End-of-Life Trajectories of Patients With Hematological Malignancies and Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors Visiting the Emergency Department: The Need for a Proactive Integrated Care Approach.

PURPOSE: Patients with hematological malignancies (HM) have more unpredictable disease trajectories compared to patients with advanced solid tumors (STs) and miss opportunities for a palliative care approach. They often undergo intensive disease-directed treatments until the end of life with frequent emergency department (ED) visits and in-hospital deaths. Insight into end-of-life trajectories and quality of end-of-life care can support arranging appropriate care according to patients' wishes. METHOD: Mortality follow-back study to compare of end-of-life trajectories of HM and ST patients who died <3 months after their ED visit. Five indicators based on Earle et al. for quality of end-of-life care were assessed: intensive anticancer treatment <3 months, ED visits <6 months, in-hospital death, death in the intensive care unit (ICU), and in-hospice death. RESULTS: We included 78 HM patients and 420 ST patients, with a median age of 63 years; 35% had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 3-4. At the ED, common symptoms were dyspnea (22%), pain (18%), and fever (11%). After ED visit, 91% of HM patients versus 76% of ST patients were hospitalized (P = .001). Median survival was 17 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15-19): 15 days in HM patients (95% CI: 10-20) versus 18 days in ST patients (95% CI: 15-21), P = .028. Compared to ST patients, HM patients more often died in hospital (68% vs 30%, P < .0001) and in the ICU or ED (30% vs 3%, P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Because end-of-life care is more aggressive in HM patients compared to ST patients, a proactive integrated care approach with early start of palliative care alongside curative care is warranted. Timely discussions with patients and family about advance care planning and end-of-life choices can avoid inappropriate care at the end of life.

CAM-ICU may not be the optimal screening tool for early delirium screening in older emergency department patients: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is a frequent problem among older patients in the emergency department (ED) and early detection is important to prevent its associated adverse outcomes. Several screening tools for delirium have been proposed for the ED, such as the 6-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT) and the Confusion Assessment Method-ICU (CAM-ICU). Previous validation of the CAM-ICU for use in the ED showed varying results, possibly because it was administered at different or unknown time points. The aim was to study the prevalence of delirium in older ( ≥ 70 years) ED patients using the CAM-ICU and 6-CIT. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study was carried out in one tertiary care and one secondary care hospital in the Netherlands. Patients aged 70 years and older attending the ED were included. Delirium screening was performed within 1 h after ED registration using the CAM-ICU. The 6-CIT was determined for comparison using a cut-off point of at least 14 points indicating possible delirium. RESULTS: A total of 997 patients were included in the study, with a median age of 78 years (interquartile range 74-84). Delirium as assessed with CAM-ICU was positive in only 13 (1.3%, 95% confidence interval: 0.8-2.2) patients. Ninety-five (9.5% 95% confidence interval: 7.9-11.5) patients had 6-CIT more than or equal to 14. CONCLUSION: We found a delirium prevalence of 1.3% using the CAM-ICU, which was much lower than the expected prevalence of around 10% as being frequently reported in the literature and what we found when using the 6-CIT. On the basis of these results, caution is warranted to use the CAM-ICU for early screening in the ED.

Independent determinants of prolonged emergency department length of stay in a tertiary care centre: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a potential threat for patient safety. We searched for independent determinants of prolonged ED length of stay (LOS) with the aim to identify factors which can be targeted to reduce ED LOS, which may help in preventing overcrowding. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included consecutive ED patients in a Dutch tertiary care centre. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent determinants of ED LOS > 4 h, including patient characteristics (demographics, referral type, acuity, (number of) presenting complaints and comorbidity), treating specialty, diagnostic testing, consultations, number of patients in the ED and disposition. Furthermore, we quantified the absolute time delays (measured in real-time) associated with the most important independent determinants of prolonged ED LOS. RESULTS: In 1434 included patients independent determinants of prolonged ED LOS were number and type of presenting complaints, specialty, laboratory/radiology testing and consultations, and ICU admission. Modifiable determinants with the largest impact were blood testing; Adjusted odds ratio (AOR (95%-CI)); 3.45 (1.95-6.11), urine testing; 1.79 (1.21-2.63), radiology imaging; 3.02 (2.13-4.30), and consultation; 5.90 (4.08-8.54). Combined with the laboratory/radiology testing and/or consultations (requested in 1123 (78%) patients) the decision-making and discharge process consumed between 74 (42%) and 117 (66%) minutes of the total ED LOS of 177 (IQR: 129-225) minutes. CONCLUSIONS: In tertiary care EDs, ED LOS can be reduced if the process of laboratory/radiology testing and consulting is optimized and the decision-making and discharge procedures are accelerated.

Predictors and Outcomes of Revisits in Older Adults Discharged from the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVES: To study predictors of emergency department (ED) revisits and the association between ED revisits and 90-day functional decline or mortality. DESIGN: Multicenter cohort study. SETTING: One academic and two regional Dutch hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults discharged from the ED (N=1,093). MEASUREMENTS: At baseline, data on demographic characteristics, illness severity, and geriatric parameters (cognition, functional capacity) were collected. All participants were prospectively followed for an unplanned revisit within 30 days and for functional decline and mortality 90 days after the initial visit. RESULTS: The median age was 79 (interquartile range 74-84), and 114 participants (10.4%) had an ED revisit within 30 days of discharge. Age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.92-0.99), male sex (HR=1.61, 95% CI=1.05-2.45), polypharmacy (HR=2.06, 95% CI=1.34-3.16), and cognitive impairment (HR=1.71, 95% CI=1.02-2.88) were independent predictors of a 30-day ED revisit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict an ED revisit was 0.65 (95% CI=0.60-0.70). In a propensity score-matched analysis, individuals with an ED revisit were at higher risk (odds ratio=1.99 95% CI=1.06-3.71) of functional decline or mortality. CONCLUSION: Age, male sex, polypharmacy, and cognitive impairment were independent predictors of a 30-day ED revisit, but no useful clinical prediction model could be developed. However, an early ED revisit is a strong new predictor of adverse outcomes in older adults.

Predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients: a retrospective cohort study.

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presentation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive performance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in the Acute Medical Unit of the Leiden University Medical Center, the Netherlands in 2012. We developed a prediction model for 90-day mortality that combines vital signs and laboratory test results reflecting severity of disease with geriatric factors, represented by comorbidities and number of medications. Among 517 patients, 94 patients (18.2 %) died within 90 days after admission. Six predictors of mortality were included in a model for mortality: oxygen saturation, Charlson comorbidity index, thrombocytes, urea, C-reactive protein and non-fasting glucose. The prediction model performs satisfactorily with an 0.738 (0.667-0.798). Using this model, 53 % of the patients in the highest risk decile (N = 51) were deceased within 90 days. In conclusion, we are able to predict 90-day mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients using a model with directly available clinical data describing disease severity and geriatric factors. After further validation, such a model might be used in clinical decision making in older patients.

[Thrombolysis not always necessary in patients with acute pulmonary embolism]. / Trombolyse niet altijd nodig bij acute longembolie.

International guidelines suggest that patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism should be given routine thrombolysis on top of heparin. There is debate as to whether patients with acute pulmonary embolism who present in a haemodynamically stable condition, yet have signs of right ventricular dysfunction and increased troponin, actually need thrombolytic therapy. The results of the Pulmonary Embolism Thrombolysis study (PEITHO) show that in this particular patient group routine thrombolysis led to less haemodynamic decompensation or collapse, but that this advantage came with significantly higher incidences of haemorrhagic stroke and major extracranial bleeding. These results argue against routine thrombolysis in these patients. It is recommended that anticoagulation with heparin and vitamin K antagonists be given and patients be carefully monitored in hospital, particularly during the first three days.