Biomarker panels may be superior over single molecules in prediction of renal flares in systemic lupus erythematosus: an exploratory study.

OBJECTIVE: Recent evidence suggests that some urinary biomarkers, namely Vascular Cell Adhesion Molecule-1 (VCAM-1), Intercellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1), Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein 1 (MCP-1), Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalcin and Lipocalin-type Prostaglandin D-Synthetase (L-PGDS), might discriminate SLE patients with ongoing renal activity from those with stable disease. The objective of this study was to assess the role of these markers in predicting renal flares in comparison with conventional biomarkers and to derive a biomarker panel which may improve diagnostic accuracy. METHODS: Eligible participants were SLE patients prospectively followed at our clinic. Urinary biomarker levels were measured in urinary sample by ELISA assay and were compared by the unpaired Student's t test or the Mann-Whitney U test as appropriate. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve. Cox regression was used to identify independent factors associated with disease flares. RESULTS: Urine was collected from 61 patients. During 8 months' follow-up, eight patients experienced a renal flare. Urinary L-PGDS, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels were significantly increased in the patients who subsequently experienced a renal flare with respect to the remaining 53. At Cox regression analysis, L-PGDS, ICAM-1, VCAM-1, hypocomplementemia and anti-dsDNA antibodies were factors associated with renal flares. Based on receiver operating characteristic analysis, a combination of novel and conventional biomarkers demonstrated an excellent ability for accurately identifying a flare. CONCLUSION: This study might suggest the usefulness of a novel biomarker panel in predicting a renal flare in SLE.

Predictors of mortality in atypical antipsychotic-treated community-dwelling elderly patients with behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia: a prospective population-based cohort study from Italy.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effect of a broad range of covariates on the survival of a real-life long-term follow-up cohort of community-dwelling patients with behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia who were new users of atypical antipsychotic medications (APMs). METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 1,618 subjects aged ≥65 years with dementia and BPSD ("behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia") who were new users of atypical APMs and registered in a Dementia Evaluation Unit of Campania Region (Italy) from September 2006 to March 2010. The potential of baseline features to predict mortality was assessed with the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The average follow-up was 309 days. Of the 1,618 new users of atypical antipsychotics, 9.3 % experienced at least one adverse event, including death (5.1 %), drug therapeutic failure (3.0 %), extrapyramidal symptoms (0.5 %) and stroke (0.2 %). The crude all-cause mortality rate was 6.0 per 100 person-years [95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.8-7.4]; the rate was higher in patients aged >85 years (9.0 per 100 person-years, 95 % CI 6.4-12.7) and among male patients (7.5 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 5.3-10.6). In the multivariate analysis, only age was associated to all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.1; 95 % CI 1.0-1.1 and HR 1.4; 95 % CI: 0.9-2.2, respectively). In contrast, hallucination (HR 0.4; 95 % CI 0.2-0.6) and dosage change (HR 0.4; 95 % CI 0.2-0.78) were significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among our patient cohort, the mortality rate of patients with BPSD receiving long-term treatment with atypical APMs was lower than that reported in other studies, and only age was found to be significant predictor factor of mortality.