A reference map of potential determinants for the human serum metabolome.

The serum metabolome contains a plethora of biomarkers and causative agents of various diseases, some of which are endogenously produced and some that have been taken up from the environment1. The origins of specific compounds are known, including metabolites that are highly heritable2,3, or those that are influenced by the gut microbiome4, by lifestyle choices such as smoking5, or by diet6. However, the key determinants of most metabolites are still poorly understood. Here we measured the levels of 1,251 metabolites in serum samples from a unique and deeply phenotyped healthy human cohort of 491 individuals. We applied machine-learning algorithms to predict metabolite levels in held-out individuals on the basis of host genetics, gut microbiome, clinical parameters, diet, lifestyle and anthropometric measurements, and obtained statistically significant predictions for more than 76% of the profiled metabolites. Diet and microbiome had the strongest predictive power, and each explained hundreds of metabolites-in some cases, explaining more than 50% of the observed variance. We further validated microbiome-related predictions by showing a high replication rate in two geographically independent cohorts7,8 that were not available to us when we trained the algorithms. We used feature attribution analysis9 to reveal specific dietary and bacterial interactions. We further demonstrate that some of these interactions might be causal, as some metabolites that we predicted to be positively associated with bread were found to increase after a randomized clinical trial of bread intervention. Overall, our results reveal potential determinants of more than 800 metabolites, paving the way towards a mechanistic understanding of alterations in metabolites under different conditions and to designing interventions for manipulating the levels of circulating metabolites.

Ethnic, gender and other sociodemographic biases in genome-wide association studies for the most burdensome non-communicable diseases: 2005-2022.

INTRODUCTION: Since 2005, disease-related human genetic diversity has been intensively characterized using genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Understanding how and by whom this work was performed may yield valuable insights into the generalizability of GWAS discoveries to global populations and how high-impact genetics research can be equitably sustained in the future. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We mined the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog (2005-2022) for the most burdensome non-communicable causes of death worldwide. We then compared (i) the geographic, ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics of study populations; (ii) the geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the regions within which researchers were located and (iii) the extent to which male and female investigators undertook and led the research. RESULTS: The research institutions leading the work are often US-based (37%), while the origin of samples is more diverse, with the Nordic countries having contributed as much data to GWAS as the United States (~17% of data). The majority of first (60%), senior (75%) and all (66%) authors are male; although proportions vary by disease and leadership level, male co-authors are the ubiquitous majority. The vast majority (91%) of complex trait GWAS has been performed in European ancestry populations, with cohorts and scientists predominantly located in medium-to-high socioeconomically ranked countries; apart from East Asians (~5%), other ethnicities rarely feature in published GWAS. See: https://hugofitipaldi.shinyapps.io/gwas_results/ to browse all results. CONCLUSION: Most GWAS cohorts are of European ancestry residing outside the United States, with a smaller yet meaningful proportion of East Asian ancestry. Papers describing GWAS research are predominantly authored by male scientists based in medium-to-high income countries.

Genomic editing of metformin efficacy-associated genetic variants in SLC47A1 does not alter SLC47A1 expression.

Several pharmacogenetics studies have identified an association between a greater metformin-dependent reduction in HbA1c levels and the minor A allele at rs2289669 in intron 10 of SLC47A1, encoding multidrug and toxin extrusion 1 (MATE1), a presumed metformin transporter. It is currently unknown if the rs2289669 locus is a cis-eQTL, which would validate its role as predictor of metformin efficacy. We looked at association between common genetic variants in the SLC47A1 gene region and HbA1c reduction after metformin treatment using locus-wise meta-analysis from the MetGen consortium. CRISPR-Cas9 was applied to perform allele editing of, or genomic deletion around, rs2289669 and of the closely linked rs8065082 in HepG2 cells. The genome-edited cells were evaluated for SLC47A1 expression and splicing. None of the common variants including rs2289669 showed significant association with metformin response. Genomic editing of either rs2289669 or rs8065082 did not alter SLC47A1 expression or splicing. Experimental and in silico analyses show that the rs2289669-containing haploblock does not appear to carry genetic variants that could explain its previously reported association with metformin efficacy.

Snack quality and snack timing are associated with cardiometabolic blood markers: the ZOE PREDICT study.

BACKGROUND: Snacking is a common diet behaviour which accounts for a large proportion of daily energy intake, making it a key determinant of diet quality. However, the relationship between snacking frequency, quality and timing with cardiometabolic health remains unclear. DESIGN: Demography, diet, health (fasting and postprandial cardiometabolic blood and anthropometrics markers) and stool metagenomics data were assessed in the UK PREDICT 1 cohort (N = 1002) (NCT03479866). Snacks (foods or drinks consumed between main meals) were self-reported (weighed records) across 2-4 days. Average snacking frequency and quality [snack diet index (SDI)] were determined (N = 854 after exclusions). Associations between snacking frequency, quality and timing with cardiometabolic blood and anthropometric markers were assessed using regression models (adjusted for age, sex, BMI, education, physical activity level and main meal quality). RESULTS: Participants were aged (mean, SD) 46.1 ± 11.9 years, had a mean BMI of 25.6 ± 4.88 kg/m2 and were predominantly female (73%). 95% of participants were snackers (≥ 1 snack/day; n = 813); mean daily snack intake was 2.28 snacks/day (24 ± 16% of daily calories; 203 ± 170 kcal); and 44% of participants were discordant for meal and snack quality. In snackers, overall snacking frequency and quantity of snack energy were not associated with cardiometabolic risk markers. However, lower snack quality (SDI range 1-11) was associated with higher blood markers, including elevated fasting triglycerides (TG (mmol/L) ß; - 0.02, P = 0.02), postprandial TGs (6hiAUC (mmol/L.s); ß; - 400, P = 0.01), fasting insulin (mIU/L) (ß; - 0.15, P = 0.04), insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; ß; - 0.04, P = 0.04) and hunger (scale 0-100) (ß; - 0.52, P = 0.02) (P values non-significant after multiple testing adjustments). Late-evening snacking (≥ 9 pm; 31%) was associated with lower blood markers (HbA1c; 5.54 ± 0.42% vs 5.46 ± 0.28%, glucose 2hiAUC; 8212 ± 5559 vs 7321 ± 4928 mmol/L.s, P = 0.01 and TG 6hiAUC; 11,638 ± 8166 vs 9781 ± 6997 mmol/L.s, P = 0.01) compared to all other snacking times (HbA1c remained significant after multiple testing). CONCLUSION: Snack quality and timing of consumption are simple diet features which may be targeted to improve diet quality, with potential health benefits. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NUMBER AND WEBSITE: NCT03479866, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03479866?term=NCT03479866&draw=2&rank=1.

Engineered allele substitution at PPARGC1A rs8192678 alters human white adipocyte differentiation, lipogenesis, and PGC-1α content and turnover.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: PPARGC1A encodes peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ coactivator 1-α (PGC-1α), a central regulator of energy metabolism and mitochondrial function. A common polymorphism in PPARGC1A (rs8192678, C/T, Gly482Ser) has been associated with obesity and related metabolic disorders, but no published functional studies have investigated direct allele-specific effects in adipocyte biology. We examined whether rs8192678 is a causal variant and reveal its biological function in human white adipose cells. METHODS: We used CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing to perform an allelic switch (C-to-T or T-to-C) at rs8192678 in an isogenic human pre-adipocyte white adipose tissue (hWAs) cell line. Allele-edited single-cell clones were expanded and screened to obtain homozygous T/T (Ser482Ser), C/C (Gly482Gly) and heterozygous C/T (Gly482Ser) isogenic cell populations, followed by functional studies of the allele-dependent effects on white adipocyte differentiation and mitochondrial function. RESULTS: After differentiation, the C/C adipocytes were visibly less BODIPY-positive than T/T and C/T adipocytes, and had significantly lower triacylglycerol content. The C allele presented a dose-dependent lowering effect on lipogenesis, as well as lower expression of genes critical for adipogenesis, lipid catabolism, lipogenesis and lipolysis. Moreover, C/C adipocytes had decreased oxygen consumption rate (OCR) at basal and maximal respiration, and lower ATP-linked OCR. We determined that these effects were a consequence of a C-allele-driven dysregulation of PGC-1α protein content, turnover rate and transcriptional coactivator activity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our data show allele-specific causal effects of the rs8192678 variant on adipogenic differentiation. The C allele confers lower levels of PPARGC1A mRNA and PGC-1α protein, as well as disrupted dynamics of PGC-1α turnover and activity, with downstream effects on cellular differentiation and mitochondrial function. Our study provides the first experimentally deduced insights on the effects of rs8192678 on adipocyte phenotype.

Investigating the causal relationships between excess adiposity and cardiometabolic health in men and women.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Excess adiposity is differentially associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic disease in men and women, according to observational studies. Causal inference studies largely assume a linear relationship between BMI and cardiometabolic outcomes, which may not be the case. In this study, we investigated the shapes of the causal relationships between BMI and cardiometabolic diseases and risk factors. We further investigated sex differences within the causal framework. METHODS: To assess causal relationships between BMI and the outcomes, we used two-stage least-squares Mendelian randomisation (MR), with a polygenic risk score for BMI as the instrumental variable. To elucidate the shapes of the causal relationships, we used a non-linear MR fractional polynomial method, and used piecewise MR to investigate threshold relationships and confirm the shapes. RESULTS: BMI was associated with type 2 diabetes (OR 3.10; 95% CI 2.73, 3.53), hypertension (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.44, 1.62) and coronary artery disease (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.08, 1.33), but not chronic kidney disease (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.67, 1.72) or stroke (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.92, 1.28). The data suggest that these relationships are non-linear. For cardiometabolic risk factors, BMI was positively associated with glucose, HbA1c, triacylglycerol levels and both systolic and diastolic BP. BMI had an inverse causal relationship with total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol. The data suggest a non-linear causal relationship between BMI and BP and other biomarkers (p<0.001) except lipoprotein A. The piecewise MR results were consistent with the fractional polynomial results. The causal effect of BMI on coronary artery disease, total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol was different in men and women, but this sex difference was only significant for LDL-cholesterol after controlling for multiple testing (p<0.001). Further, the causal effect of BMI on coronary artery disease varied by menopause status in women. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We describe the shapes of causal effects of BMI on cardiometabolic diseases and risk factors, and report sex differences in the causal effects of BMI on LDL-cholesterol. We found evidence of non-linearity in the causal effect of BMI on diseases and risk factor biomarkers. Reducing excess adiposity is highly beneficial for health, but there is greater need to consider biological sex in the management of adiposity.

Interaction between plasma phospholipid odd-chain fatty acids and GAD65 autoantibodies on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Islet autoimmunity may progress to adult-onset diabetes. We investigated whether circulating odd-chain fatty acids (OCFA) 15:0 and 17:0, which are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, interact with autoantibodies against GAD65 (GAD65Ab) on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes. METHODS: We used the European EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study including 11,124 incident adult-onset diabetes cases and a subcohort of 14,866 randomly selected individuals. Adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox regression estimated HRs and 95% CIs of diabetes in relation to 1 SD lower plasma phospholipid 15:0 and/or 17:0 concentrations or their main contributor, dairy intake, among GAD65Ab-negative and -positive individuals. Interactions between tertiles of OCFA and GAD65Ab status were estimated by proportion attributable to interaction (AP). RESULTS: Low concentrations of OCFA, particularly 17:0, were associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset diabetes in both GAD65Ab-negative (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.48, 1.64]) and GAD65Ab-positive (HR 1.69 [95% CI 1.34, 2.13]) individuals. The combination of low 17:0 and high GAD65Ab positivity vs high 17:0 and GAD65Ab negativity conferred an HR of 7.51 (95% CI 4.83, 11.69), with evidence of additive interaction (AP 0.25 [95% CI 0.05, 0.45]). Low dairy intake was not associated with diabetes incidence in either GAD65Ab-negative (HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.94, 1.02]) or GAD65Ab-positive individuals (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.79, 1.18]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Low plasma phospholipid 17:0 concentrations may promote the progression from GAD65Ab positivity to adult-onset diabetes.

A nutritional biomarker score of the Mediterranean diet and incident type 2 diabetes: Integrated analysis of data from the MedLey randomised controlled trial and the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.

Plasma protein N-glycome composition associates with postprandial lipaemic response.

BACKGROUND: A dysregulated postprandial metabolic response is a risk factor for chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The plasma protein N-glycome is implicated in both lipid metabolism and T2DM risk. Hence, we first investigate the relationship between the N-glycome and postprandial metabolism and then explore the mediatory role of the plasma N-glycome in the relationship between postprandial lipaemia and T2DM. METHODS: We included 995 individuals from the ZOE-PREDICT 1 study with plasma N-glycans measured by ultra-performance liquid chromatography at fasting and triglyceride, insulin, and glucose levels measured at fasting and following a mixed-meal challenge. Linear mixed models were used to investigate the associations between plasma protein N-glycosylation and metabolic response (fasting, postprandial (Cmax), or change from fasting). A mediation analysis was used to further explore the relationship of the N-glycome in the prediabetes (HbA1c = 39-47 mmol/mol (5.7-6.5%))-postprandial lipaemia association. RESULTS: We identified 36 out of 55 glycans significantly associated with postprandial triglycerides (Cmax ß ranging from -0.28 for low-branched glycans to 0.30 for GP26) after adjusting for covariates and multiple testing (padjusted < 0.05). N-glycome composition explained 12.6% of the variance in postprandial triglycerides not already explained by traditional risk factors. Twenty-seven glycans were also associated with postprandial glucose and 12 with postprandial insulin. Additionally, 3 of the postprandial triglyceride-associated glycans (GP9, GP11, and GP32) also correlate with prediabetes and partially mediate the relationship between prediabetes and postprandial triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive overview of the interconnections between plasma protein N-glycosylation and postprandial responses, demonstrating the incremental predictive benefit of N-glycans. We also suggest a considerable proportion of the effect of prediabetes on postprandial triglycerides is mediated by some plasma N-glycans.

Precision medicine in complex diseases-Molecular subgrouping for improved prediction and treatment stratification.

Complex diseases are caused by a combination of genetic, lifestyle, and environmental factors and comprise common noncommunicable diseases, including allergies, cardiovascular disease, and psychiatric and metabolic disorders. More than 25% of Europeans suffer from a complex disease, and together these diseases account for 70% of all deaths. The use of genomic, molecular, or imaging data to develop accurate diagnostic tools for treatment recommendations and preventive strategies, and for disease prognosis and prediction, is an important step toward precision medicine. However, for complex diseases, precision medicine is associated with several challenges. There is a significant heterogeneity between patients of a specific disease-both with regards to symptoms and underlying causal mechanisms-and the number of underlying genetic and nongenetic risk factors is often high. Here, we summarize precision medicine approaches for complex diseases and highlight the current breakthroughs as well as the challenges. We conclude that genomic-based precision medicine has been used mainly for patients with highly penetrant monogenic disease forms, such as cardiomyopathies. However, for most complex diseases-including psychiatric disorders and allergies-available polygenic risk scores are more probabilistic than deterministic and have not yet been validated for clinical utility. However, subclassifying patients of a specific disease into discrete homogenous subtypes based on molecular or phenotypic data is a promising strategy for improving diagnosis, prediction, treatment, prevention, and prognosis. The availability of high-throughput molecular technologies, together with large collections of health data and novel data-driven approaches, offers promise toward improved individual health through precision medicine.

Long-COVID fatigue is not predicted by pre-pandemic plasma IL-6 levels in mild COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: Fatigue is a prominent symptom in the general population and may follow viral infection, including SARS-CoV2 infection which causes COVID-19. Chronic fatigue lasting more than three months is the major symptom of the post-COVID syndrome (known colloquially as long-COVID). The mechanisms underlying long-COVID fatigue are unknown. We hypothesized that the development of long-COVID chronic fatigue is driven by the pro-inflammatory immune status of an individual prior to COVID-19. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We analyzed pre-pandemic plasma levels of IL-6, which plays a key role in persistent fatigue, in N = 1274 community dwelling adults from TwinsUK. Subsequent COVID-19-positive and -negative participants were categorized based on SARS-CoV-2 antigen and antibody testing. Chronic fatigue was assessed using the Chalder Fatigue Scale. RESULTS: COVID-19-positive participants exhibited mild disease. Chronic fatigue was a prevalent symptom among this population and significantly higher in positive vs. negative participants (17% vs 11%, respectively; p = 0.001). The qualitative nature of chronic fatigue as determined by individual questionnaire responses was similar in positive and negative participants. Pre-pandemic plasma IL-6 levels were positively associated with chronic fatigue in negative, but not positive individuals. Raised BMI was associated with chronic fatigue in positive participants. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing increased IL-6 levels may contribute to chronic fatigue symptoms, but there was no increased risk in individuals with mild COVID-19 compared with uninfected individuals. Elevated BMI also increased the risk of chronic fatigue in mild COVID-19, consistent with previous reports.

Exploring the relationship between social jetlag with gut microbial composition, diet and cardiometabolic health, in the ZOE PREDICT 1 cohort.

PURPOSE: In this study, we explore the relationship between social jetlag (SJL), a parameter of circadian misalignment, and gut microbial composition, diet and cardiometabolic health in the ZOE PREDICT 1 cohort (NCT03479866). METHODS: We assessed demographic, diet, cardiometabolic, stool metagenomics and postprandial metabolic measures (n = 1002). We used self-reported habitual sleep (n = 934) to calculate SJL (difference in mid-sleep time point of ≥ 1.5 h on week versus weekend days). We tested group differences (SJL vs no-SJL) in cardiometabolic markers and diet (ANCOVA) adjusting for sex, age, BMI, ethnicity, and socio-economic status. We performed comparisons of gut microbial composition using machine learning and association analyses on the species level genome bins present in at least 20% of the samples. RESULTS: The SJL group (16%, n = 145) had a greater proportion of males (39% vs 25%), shorter sleepers (average sleep < 7 h; 5% vs 3%), and were younger (38.4 ± 11.3y vs 46.8 ± 11.7y) compared to the no-SJL group. SJL was associated with a higher relative abundance of 9 gut bacteria and lower abundance of 8 gut bacteria (q < 0.2 and absolute Cohen's effect size > 0.2), in part mediated by diet. SJL was associated with unfavourable diet quality (less healthful Plant-based Diet Index), higher intakes of potatoes and sugar-sweetened beverages, and lower intakes of fruits, and nuts, and slightly higher markers of inflammation (GlycA and IL-6) compared with no-SJL (P < 0.05 adjusted for covariates); rendered non-significant after multiple testing adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: Novel associations between SJL and a more disadvantageous gut microbiome in a cohort of predominantly adequate sleepers highlight the potential implications of SJL for health.

Impact of insufficient sleep on dysregulated blood glucose control under standardised meal conditions.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Sleep, diet and exercise are fundamental to metabolic homeostasis. In this secondary analysis of a repeated measures, nutritional intervention study, we tested whether an individual's sleep quality, duration and timing impact glycaemic response to a breakfast meal the following morning. METHODS: Healthy adults' data (N = 953 [41% twins]) were analysed from the PREDICT dietary intervention trial. Participants consumed isoenergetic standardised meals over 2 weeks in the clinic and at home. Actigraphy was used to assess sleep variables (duration, efficiency, timing) and continuous glucose monitors were used to measure glycaemic variation (>8000 meals). RESULTS: Sleep variables were significantly associated with postprandial glycaemic control (2 h incremental AUC), at both between- and within-person levels. Sleep period time interacted with meal type, with a smaller effect of poor sleep on postprandial blood glucose levels when high-carbohydrate (low fat/protein) (pinteraction = 0.02) and high-fat (pinteraction = 0.03) breakfasts were consumed compared with a reference 75 g OGTT. Within-person sleep period time had a similar interaction (high carbohydrate: pinteraction = 0.001, high fat: pinteraction = 0.02). Within- and between-person sleep efficiency were significantly associated with lower postprandial blood glucose levels irrespective of meal type (both p < 0.03). Later sleep midpoint (time deviation from midnight) was found to be significantly associated with higher postprandial glucose, in both between-person and within-person comparisons (p = 0.035 and p = 0.051, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Poor sleep efficiency and later bedtime routines are associated with more pronounced postprandial glycaemic responses to breakfast the following morning. A person's deviation from their usual sleep pattern was also associated with poorer postprandial glycaemic control. These findings underscore sleep as a modifiable, non-pharmacological therapeutic target for the optimal regulation of human metabolic health. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03479866.

Polygenic scores, diet quality, and type 2 diabetes risk: An observational study among 35,759 adults from 3 US cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which there is a synergistic effect of the 2 factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the joint associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data from 35,759 men and women in the United States participating in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I (1986 to 2016) and II (1991 to 2017) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986 to 2016) with available genetic data and who did not have diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Genetic risk was characterized using both a global polygenic score capturing overall genetic risk and pathway-specific polygenic scores denoting distinct pathophysiological mechanisms. Diet quality was assessed using the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI). Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes after adjusting for potential confounders. With over 902,386 person-years of follow-up, 4,433 participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The relative risk of type 2 diabetes was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25, 1.32; P < 0.001) per standard deviation (SD) increase in global polygenic score and 1.13 (1.09, 1.17; P < 0.001) per 10-unit decrease in AHEI. Irrespective of genetic risk, low diet quality, as compared to high diet quality, was associated with approximately 30% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (Pinteraction = 0.69). The joint association of low diet quality and increased genetic risk was similar to the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction = 0.30). Limitations of this study include the self-report of diet information and possible bias resulting from inclusion of highly educated participants with available genetic data. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence for the independent associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes and suggest that a healthy diet is associated with lower diabetes risk across all levels of genetic risk.

GWAS in people of Middle Eastern descent reveals a locus protective of kidney function-a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is one of the leading causes of chronic kidney failure, which increases globally and represents a significant threat to public health. People from the Middle East represent one of the largest immigrant groups in Europe today. Despite poor glucose regulation and high risk for early-onset insulin-deficient type 2 diabetes, they have better kidney function and lower rates of all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality compared with people of European ancestry. Here, we assessed the genetic basis of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and other metabolic traits in people of Iraqi ancestry living in southern Sweden. METHODS: Genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses were performed in 1201 Iraqi-born residents of the city of Malmö for eGFR and ten other metabolic traits using linear mixed-models to account for family structure. RESULTS: The strongest association signal was detected for eGFR in CST9 (rs13037490; P value = 2.4 × 10-13), a locus previously associated with cystatin C-based eGFR; importantly, the effect (major) allele here contrasts the effect (minor) allele in other populations, suggesting favorable selection at this locus. Additional novel genome-wide significant loci for eGFR (ERBB4), fasting glucose (CAMTA1, NDUFA10, TRIO, WWC1, TRAPPC9, SH3GL2, ABCC11), quantitative insulin-sensitivity check index (METTL16), and HbA1C (CAMTA1, ME1, PAK1, RORA) were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The genetic effects discovered here may help explain why people from the Middle East have better kidney function than those of European descent. Genetic predisposition to preserved kidney function may also underlie the observed survival benefits in Middle Eastern immigrants with type 2 diabetes.

Quantitative trait loci, G×E and G×G for glycemic traits: response to metformin and placebo in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP).

The complex genetic architecture of type-2-diabetes (T2D) includes gene-by-environment (G×E) and gene-by-gene (G×G) interactions. To identify G×E and G×G, we screened markers for patterns indicative of interactions (relationship loci [rQTL] and variance heterogeneity loci [vQTL]). rQTL exist when the correlation between multiple traits varies by genotype and vQTL occur when the variance of a trait differs by genotype (potentially flagging G×G and G×E). In the metformin and placebo arms of the DPP (n = 1762) we screened 280,965 exomic and intergenic SNPs, for rQTL and vQTL patterns in association with year one changes from baseline in glycemia and related traits (insulinogenic index [IGI], insulin sensitivity index [ISI], fasting glucose and fasting insulin). Significant (p < 1.8 × 10-7) rQTL and vQTL generated a priori hypotheses of individual G×E tests for a SNP × metformin treatment interaction and secondarily for G×G screens. Several rQTL and vQTL identified led to 6 nominally significant (p < 0.05) metformin treatment × SNP interactions (4 for IGI, one insulin, and one glucose) and 12G×G interactions (all IGI) that exceeded experiment-wide significance (p < 4.1 × 10-9). Some loci are directly associated with incident diabetes, and others are rQTL and modify a trait's relationship with diabetes (2 diabetes/glucose, 2 diabetes/insulin, 1 diabetes/IGI). rs3197999, an ISI/insulin rQTL, is a possible gene damaging missense mutation in MST1, is associated with ulcerative colitis, sclerosing cholangitis, Crohn's disease, BMI and coronary artery disease. This study demonstrates evidence for context-dependent effects (G×G & G×E) and the complexity of these T2D-related traits.

A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: This article investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviours and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March to July 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household. METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96 053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21 804) and confirmed cases (n = 48 984)-to estimate the effects of the policy. RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1800-2700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification. CONCLUSIONS: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.

Blue poo: impact of gut transit time on the gut microbiome using a novel marker.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gut transit time is a key modulator of host-microbiome interactions, yet this is often overlooked, partly because reliable methods are typically expensive or burdensome. The aim of this single-arm, single-blinded intervention study is to assess (1) the relationship between gut transit time and the human gut microbiome, and (2) the utility of the 'blue dye' method as an inexpensive and scalable technique to measure transit time. METHODS: We assessed interactions between the taxonomic and functional potential profiles of the gut microbiome (profiled via shotgun metagenomic sequencing), gut transit time (measured via the blue dye method), cardiometabolic health and diet in 863 healthy individuals from the PREDICT 1 study. RESULTS: We found that gut microbiome taxonomic composition can accurately discriminate between gut transit time classes (0.82 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and longer gut transit time is linked with specific microbial species such as Akkermansia muciniphila, Bacteroides spp and Alistipes spp (false discovery rate-adjusted p values <0.01). The blue dye measure of gut transit time had the strongest association with the gut microbiome over typical transit time proxies such as stool consistency and frequency. CONCLUSIONS: Gut transit time, measured via the blue dye method, is a more informative marker of gut microbiome function than traditional measures of stool consistency and frequency. The blue dye method can be applied in large-scale epidemiological studies to advance diet-microbiome-health research. Clinical trial registry website https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03479866 and trial number NCT03479866.

Diet quality and risk and severity of COVID-19: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Poor metabolic health and unhealthy lifestyle factors have been associated with risk and severity of COVID-19, but data for diet are lacking. We aimed to investigate the association of diet quality with risk and severity of COVID-19 and its interaction with socioeconomic deprivation. DESIGN: We used data from 592 571 participants of the smartphone-based COVID-19 Symptom Study. Diet information was collected for the prepandemic period using a short food frequency questionnaire, and diet quality was assessed using a healthful Plant-Based Diet Score, which emphasises healthy plant foods such as fruits or vegetables. Multivariable Cox models were fitted to calculate HRs and 95% CIs for COVID-19 risk and severity defined using a validated symptom-based algorithm or hospitalisation with oxygen support, respectively. RESULTS: Over 3 886 274 person-months of follow-up, 31 815 COVID-19 cases were documented. Compared with individuals in the lowest quartile of the diet score, high diet quality was associated with lower risk of COVID-19 (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and severe COVID-19 (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.74). The joint association of low diet quality and increased deprivation on COVID-19 risk was higher than the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction=0.005). The corresponding absolute excess rate per 10 000 person/months for lowest vs highest quartile of diet score was 22.5 (95% CI 18.8 to 26.3) among persons living in areas with low deprivation and 40.8 (95% CI 31.7 to 49.8) among persons living in areas with high deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: A diet characterised by healthy plant-based foods was associated with lower risk and severity of COVID-19. This association may be particularly evident among individuals living in areas with higher socioeconomic deprivation.

Replication and cross-validation of type 2 diabetes subtypes based on clinical variables: an IMI-RHAPSODY study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Five clusters based on clinical characteristics have been suggested as diabetes subtypes: one autoimmune and four subtypes of type 2 diabetes. In the current study we replicate and cross-validate these type 2 diabetes clusters in three large cohorts using variables readily measured in the clinic. METHODS: In three independent cohorts, in total 15,940 individuals were clustered based on age, BMI, HbA1c, random or fasting C-peptide, and HDL-cholesterol. Clusters were cross-validated against the original clusters based on HOMA measures. In addition, between cohorts, clusters were cross-validated by re-assigning people based on each cohort's cluster centres. Finally, we compared the time to insulin requirement for each cluster. RESULTS: Five distinct type 2 diabetes clusters were identified and mapped back to the original four All New Diabetics in Scania (ANDIS) clusters. Using C-peptide and HDL-cholesterol instead of HOMA2-B and HOMA2-IR, three of the clusters mapped with high sensitivity (80.6-90.7%) to the previously identified severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD) and mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD) clusters. The previously described ANDIS mild age-related diabetes (MARD) cluster could be mapped to the two milder groups in our study: one characterised by high HDL-cholesterol (mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol [MDH] cluster), and the other not having any extreme characteristic (mild diabetes [MD]). When these two milder groups were combined, they mapped well to the previously labelled MARD cluster (sensitivity 79.1%). In the cross-validation between cohorts, particularly the SIDD and MDH clusters cross-validated well, with sensitivities ranging from 73.3% to 97.1%. SIRD and MD showed a lower sensitivity, ranging from 36.1% to 92.3%, where individuals shifted from SIRD to MD and vice versa. People belonging to the SIDD cluster showed the fastest progression towards insulin requirement, while the MDH cluster showed the slowest progression. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Clusters based on C-peptide instead of HOMA2 measures resemble those based on HOMA2 measures, especially for SIDD, SIRD and MOD. By adding HDL-cholesterol, the MARD cluster based upon HOMA2 measures resulted in the current clustering into two clusters, with one cluster having high HDL levels. Cross-validation between cohorts showed generally a good resemblance between cohorts. Together, our results show that the clustering based on clinical variables readily measured in the clinic (age, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol, BMI and C-peptide) results in informative clusters that are representative of the original ANDIS clusters and stable across cohorts. Adding HDL-cholesterol to the clustering resulted in the identification of a cluster with very slow glycaemic deterioration.