Risk factors and prediction model for delayed bleeding after cold snare polypectomy: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Delayed bleeding (DB) is a serious complication after cold snare polypectomy (CSP) for polyps in the colon. The present study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of DB after CSP and to develop a risk-scoring model for predicting DB. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in four Chinese medical institutions. 10650 patients underwent CSP from June 2019 to May 2023. The study analyzed the rate of DB and extracted the general clinical information and polyp-related information of patients with postoperative DB. As a control, non-DB patients who received CSP at the same 4 hospitals were analyzed. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction model. The model was further validated using a Kaplan-Meier log-rank analysis, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) plot and risk plot. RESULTS: In our study, we found a 0.24% rate of DB and the risk factors were history of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, antithrombotics use, antiplatelet use, anticoagulant use, abdominal operation, sigmoid colon lesion, hematoma, cold snare defect protrusion, polyp size, wound size, the grade of wound bleeding, and morphology of Ip. These factors were incorporated into the prediction model for DB after CSP. For 1, 3, and 5 days of bleeding, the AUC of the ROC curve was 0.912, 0.939, and 0.923, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the high-risk group had a significantly higher risk of DB than the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: This study screened the risk factors and established a prediction model of DB after CSP. The results may help preventing and reducing the DB rate after CSP of colorectal polyps.

Effect of endoscopic full-thickness resection assisted by distal serosal turnover with floss traction for gastric submucosal masses.

BACKGROUND: Complex and high-risk surgical complications pose pressing challenges in the clinical implementation and advancement of endoscopic full-thickness resection (EFTR). Successful perforation repair under endoscopy, thereby avoiding surgical intervention and postoperative complications such as peritonitis, are pivotal for effective EFTR. AIM: To investigate the effectiveness and safety of EFTR assisted by distal serosal inversion under floss traction in gastric submucosal tumors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patients with gastric and duodenal submucosal tumors treated with EFTR assisted by the distal serosa inversion under dental floss traction from January 2023 to January 2024 was conducted. The total operation time, tumor dissection time, wound closure time, intraoperative bleeding volume, length of hospital stay and incidence of complications were analyzed. RESULTS: There were 93 patients, aged 55.1 ± 12.1 years. Complete tumor resection was achieved in all cases, resulting in a 100% success rate. The average total operation time was 67.4 ± 27.0 min, with tumor dissection taking 43.6 ± 20.4 min. Wound closure times varied, with gastric body closure time of 24.5 ± 14.1 min and gastric fundus closure time of 16.6 ± 8.7 min, showing a significant difference (P < 0.05). Intraoperative blood loss was 2.3 ± 4.0 mL, and average length of hospital stay was 5.7 ± 1.9 d. There was no secondary perforation after suturing in all cases. The incidence of delayed bleeding was 2.2%, and the incidence of abdominal infection was 3.2%. No patient required other surgical intervention during and after the operation. CONCLUSION: Distal serosal inversion under dental-floss-assisted EFTR significantly reduced wound closure time and intraoperative blood loss, making it a viable approach for gastric submucosal tumors.

Establishment and Verification of Scoring System for Colorectal Adenoma Recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to establish and verify a risk-scoring system for colorectal adenoma recurrence. METHODS: A total of 359 patients with colorectal adenoma who underwent polypectomy from October 2017 to December 2018 were included in this retrospective study. Information including taking traditional Chinese medicine, demographic characteristics, adenoma characteristics were collected. The patients will review the colonoscopy one year after surgery. The patients were divided into a modeling cohort (216 cases) and a model validation cohort (143 cases) according to the ratio of 6:4. Modeling and model verification were performed by logistic regression, ROC curve, nomogram (calibration chart) and other methods. RESULTS: After adjusting for confounding factors by logistic regression, it was found that taking Chinese medicine, the number, size, site, pathological type and morphology of adenoma were independent influencing factors for the recurrence of colorectal adenoma. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) in the model validation cohort of established risk scoring system was 0.771 (95% CI: 0.694-0.847), indicating that there was good consistency. CONCLUSION: The established risk prediction model of colorectal adenoma recurrence and its risk scoring system performed well and had high predictive value.

Establishment and Evaluation of a Time Series Model for Predicting the Seasonality of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish and evaluate a time series model for predicting the seasonality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). METHODS: Patients with acute UGIB who were admitted to the Emergency Department and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center of Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2013 to December 2019 were enrolled in the present study. The incidence trend of UGIB was analyzed by seasonal decomposition method. Then, exponential smoothing model and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to establish the model and forecast, respectively. RESULTS: Finally, the exponential smoothing model with better fitting and prediction effect was selected. The smooth R2 was 0.586, and the Ljung-Box Q (18) statistic value was 22.272 (P = 0.135). The incidence of UGIB had an obvious seasonal trend, with a peak in annual January and a seasonal factor of 140%. After that, the volatility had gradually declined, with a trough in August and a seasonal factor of 67.8%. Since then, it had gradually increased. CONCLUSION: The prediction effect of exponential smoothing model is better, which can provide prevention and treatment strategies for UGIB, and provide objective guidance for more medical staff in Emergency Department and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center during the peak period of UGIB.