Protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, but management helps.

International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth's surface that is protected for nature1,2. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss3-6, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species' populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls7-13. Here we explore how 1,506 protected areas have affected the trajectories of 27,055 waterbird populations across the globe using a robust before-after control-intervention study design, which compares protected and unprotected populations in the years before and after protection. We show that the simpler study designs typically used to assess protected area effectiveness (before-after or control-intervention) incorrectly estimate effects for 37-50% of populations-for instance misclassifying positively impacted populations as negatively impacted, and vice versa. Using our robust study design, we find that protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, with a strong signal that areas managed for waterbirds or their habitat are more likely to benefit populations, and a weak signal that larger areas are more beneficial than smaller ones. Calls to conserve 30% of the Earth's surface by 2030 are gathering pace14, but we show that protection alone does not guarantee good biodiversity outcomes. As countries gather to agree the new Global Biodiversity Framework, targets must focus on creating and supporting well-managed protected and conserved areas that measurably benefit populations.

Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change.

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.

Global conservation of species' niches.

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive1. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations1-3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas4. Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally5-8-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots9, including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas1,2.

People's desire to be in nature and how they experience it are partially heritable.

Nature experiences have been linked to mental and physical health. Despite the importance of understanding what determines individual variation in nature experience, the role of genes has been overlooked. Here, using a twin design (TwinsUK, number of individuals = 2,306), we investigate the genetic and environmental contributions to a person's nature orientation, opportunity (living in less urbanized areas), and different dimensions of nature experience (frequency and duration of public nature space visits and frequency and duration of garden visits). We estimate moderate heritability of nature orientation (46%) and nature experiences (48% for frequency of public nature space visits, 34% for frequency of garden visits, and 38% for duration of garden visits) and show their genetic components partially overlap. We also find that the environmental influences on nature experiences are moderated by the level of urbanization of the home district. Our study demonstrates genetic contributions to individuals' nature experiences, opening a new dimension for the study of human-nature interactions.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

The benefits of contributing to the citizen science platform iNaturalist as an identifier.

As the number of observations submitted to the citizen science platform iNaturalist continues to grow, it is increasingly important that these observations can be identified to the finest taxonomic level, maximizing their value for biodiversity research. Here, we explore the benefits of acting as an identifier on iNaturalist.

The global distribution and trajectory of tidal flats.

Increasing human populations around the global coastline have caused extensive loss, degradation and fragmentation of coastal ecosystems, threatening the delivery of important ecosystem services1. As a result, alarming losses of mangrove, coral reef, seagrass, kelp forest and coastal marsh ecosystems have occurred1-6. However, owing to the difficulty of mapping intertidal areas globally, the distribution and status of tidal flats-one of the most extensive coastal ecosystems-remain unknown7. Here we present an analysis of over 700,000 satellite images that maps the global extent of and change in tidal flats over the course of 33 years (1984-2016). We find that tidal flats, defined as sand, rock or mud flats that undergo regular tidal inundation7, occupy at least 127,921 km2 (124,286-131,821 km2, 95% confidence interval). About 70% of the global extent of tidal flats is found in three continents (Asia (44% of total), North America (15.5% of total) and South America (11% of total)), with 49.2% being concentrated in just eight countries (Indonesia, China, Australia, the United States, Canada, India, Brazil and Myanmar). For regions with sufficient data to develop a consistent multi-decadal time series-which included East Asia, the Middle East and North America-we estimate that 16.02% (15.62-16.47%, 95% confidence interval) of tidal flats were lost between 1984 and 2016. Extensive degradation from coastal development1, reduced sediment delivery from major rivers8,9, sinking of riverine deltas8,10, increased coastal erosion and sea-level rise11 signal a continuing negative trajectory for tidal flat ecosystems around the world. Our high-spatial-resolution dataset delivers global maps of tidal flats, which substantially advances our understanding of the distribution, trajectory and status of these poorly known coastal ecosystems.

Patterns of recovery in extant and extirpated seabirds after the world's largest multipredator eradication.

Eradicating invasive predators from islands can result in substantial recovery of seabirds, but the mechanisms that drive population changes remain poorly understood. Meta-analyses have recently revealed that immigration is surprisingly important to the recovery of philopatric seabirds, but it is not known whether dispersal and philopatry interact predictably to determine rates of population growth and changes of distribution. We used whole-island surveys and long-term monitoring plots to study the abundance, distribution, and trends of 4 burrowing seabird species on Macquarie Island, Australia, to examine the legacy impacts of invasive species and ongoing responses to the world's largest eradication of multiple species of vertebrates. Wekas (Gallirallus australis) were eradicated in 1988; cats (Felis catus) in 2001; and rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), black rats (Rattus rattus), and mice (Mus mus) in 2011-2014. We compared surveys from 1976-1979 and 2017-2018 and monitoring from the 1990s and 2000s onward. Antarctic prions (Pachyptila desolata) and white-headed petrels (Pterodroma lessonii) increased ∼1% per year. Blue petrels (Halobaena caerulea) and gray petrels (Procellaria cinerea) recolonized following extirpation from the main island in the 1900s but remained spatially and numerically rare in 2018. However, they increased rapidly at 14% and 10% per year, respectively, since cat eradication in 2001. Blue and gray petrel recolonization occurred on steep, dry, west-facing slopes close to ridgelines at low elevation (i.e., high-quality petrel habitat). They overlapped <5% with the distribution of Antarctic prion and white-headed petrels which occurred in suboptimal shallow, wet, east-facing slopes at high elevation. We inferred that the speed of population growth of recolonizing species was related to their numerically smaller starting size compared with the established species and was driven by immigration and selection of ideal habitat.

Patrones de recuperación en aves marinas existentes y extirpadas después de la mayor erradicación mundial de multidepredadores Resumen La erradicación de depredadores invasores en las islas puede derivar en la recuperación sustancial de aves marinas, aunque entendemos muy poco los mecanismos que causan los cambios poblacionales. Los metaanálisis recientes han revelado que la inmigración es de gran importancia para la recuperación de aves marinas filopátricas, aunque no sabemos si la dispersión y la filopatría interactúan de forma predecible para poder determinar las tasas de crecimiento poblacional y los cambios en la distribución. Aplicamos censos de isla completa y parcelas de monitoreo a largo plazo para estudiar la abundancia, distribución y tendencias de cuatro especies de aves marinas cavadoras en la Isla Macquarie, Australia, para analizar los impactos heredados de las especies invasoras y la respuesta continua a la mayor erradicación mundial de varias especies de vertebrados. El rascón weka (Gallirallus australis) se erradicó en 1988; los gatos (Felis catus) en 2001; y los conejos (Oryctolagus cuniculus), ratas (Rattus rattus) y ratones (Mus mus) entre 2011 y 2014. Comparamos los censos de 1976-1979 y 2017-2018 y el monitoreo realizado en los 90s y del año 2000 en adelante. El pato petrel antártico (Pachyptila desolata) y el petrel cabeciblanco (Pterodroma lessonii) incrementaron ∼1% por año. El petrel azulado (Halobaena caerulea) y la pardela gris (Procellaria cinerea) recolonizaron la isla después de su extirpación en la década de 1900, pero todavía eran especies raras espacial y numéricamente en 2018. Sin embargo, esta especie incrementó rápidamente en un 14% y 10% por año respectivamente desde que se erradicaron los gatos en 2001. La recolonización ocurrió desde las laderas empinadas, secas y con orientación al oeste en los sistemas montañosos de baja elevación (es decir, hábitats de gran calidad para los petreles). La distribución del petrel azulado y la pardela gris ocurrió en laderas someras subóptimas y húmedas con orientación al este a altas elevaciones. Esta distribución se traslapó menos del 5% con la del pato petrel antártico y la del petrel cabeciblanco. Inferimos que la velocidad del crecimiento poblacional de las especies que recolonizaron estuvo relacionada con el menor tamaño inicial en comparación con las especies establecidas y fue causada por la inmigración y la selección del hábitat ideal.

Using social media records to inform conservation planning.

Citizen science plays a crucial role in helping monitor biodiversity and inform conservation. With the widespread use of smartphones, many people share biodiversity information on social media, but this information is still not widely used in conservation. Focusing on Bangladesh, a tropical megadiverse and mega-populated country, we examined the importance of social media records in conservation decision-making. We collated species distribution records for birds and butterflies from Facebook and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), grouped them into GBIF-only and combined GBIF and Facebook data, and investigated the differences in identifying critical conservation areas. Adding Facebook data to GBIF data improved the accuracy of systematic conservation planning assessments by identifying additional important conservation areas in the northwest, southeast, and central parts of Bangladesh, extending priority conservation areas by 4,000-10,000 km2 . Community efforts are needed to drive the implementation of the ambitious Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets, especially in megadiverse tropical countries with a lack of reliable and up-to-date species distribution data. We highlight that conservation planning can be enhanced by including available data gathered from social media platforms.

Registros de las redes sociales para guiar la planeación de la conservación Resumen La ciencia ciudadana es importante para monitorear la biodiversidad e informar la conservación. Con el creciente uso de los teléfonos inteligentes, muchas personas comparten información de la biodiversidad en redes sociales, pero todavía no se usa ampliamente en la conservación. Analizamos la importancia de los registros de las redes sociales para las decisiones de conservación enfocados en Bangladesh, un país tropical megadiverso y mega poblado. Cotejamos los registros de distribución de especies de aves y mariposas en Facebook y Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), las agrupamos en datos sólo de GBIF o datos combinados de Facebook y GBIF e investigamos las diferencias en la identificación de las áreas de conservación críticas. La combinación de los datos de Facebook con los de GBIF mejoró la precisión de las evaluaciones de la planeación de la conservación sistemática al identificar otras áreas importantes de conservación en el noroeste, sureste y centro de Bangladesh, extendiendo así las áreas prioritarias de conservación en unos 4,000-10,000 km2 . Se requieren esfuerzos comunitarios para impulsar la implementación de los objetivos ambiciosos del Marco Global de Biodiversidad Kunming-Montreal, especialmente en países tropicales que carecen de datos confiables y actuales sobre la distribución de las especies. Destacamos que la planeación de la conservación puede mejorarse si se incluye información tomada de las redes sociales.

Increasing biodiversity knowledge through social media: A case study from tropical Bangladesh.

Citizen science programs are becoming increasingly popular among naturalists but remain heavily biased taxonomically and geographically. However, with the explosive popularity of social media and the near-ubiquitous availability of smartphones, many post wildlife photographs on social media. Here, we illustrate the potential of harvesting these data to enhance our biodiversity understanding using Bangladesh, a tropical biodiverse country, as a case study. We compared biodiversity records extracted from Facebook with those from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), collating geospatial records for 1013 unique species, including 970 species from Facebook and 712 species from GBIF. Although most observation records were biased toward major cities, the Facebook records were more evenly spatially distributed. About 86% of the Threatened species records were from Facebook, whereas the GBIF records were almost entirely Of Least Concern species. To reduce the global biodiversity data shortfall, a key research priority now is the development of mechanisms for extracting and interpreting social media biodiversity data.

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds.

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.

Estudio de los riesgos y beneficios de la flexibilidad en la ubicación de compensación de la biodiversidad en el estudio de caso de aves costeras migratorias Resumen Las compensaciones de la biodiversidad buscan contrabalancear el impacto residual que tiene el desarrollo sobre las especies y los ecosistemas. Los documentos guía recomiendan explícitamente que las acciones de estas compensaciones estén ubicadas cerca del lugar del impacto debido al potencial elevado de que haya condiciones ecológicas similares, aunque ya hay propuestas de una mayor flexibilidad espacial. Analizamos las circunstancias bajo las cuales las compensaciones alejadas del lugar de impacto tendrían mayor probabilidad de lograr pérdidas netas nulas o de proporcionar mejores resultados ecológicos que las compensaciones cercanas al área de impacto. Aplicamos un modelo gráfico para las aves costeras migratorias en el corredor aéreo asiático-australasiático del este como estudio de caso para estudiar los problemas que surgen cuando se incorpora la flexibilidad espacial a la planeación de las compensaciones. Las compensaciones espacialmente flexibles pueden mitigar los impactos más efectivamente que las compensaciones locales; sin embargo, los riesgos que esto involucra pueden ser considerables. En nuestro estudio de caso hubo datos insuficientes para concluir contundentemente sobre la efectividad y equivalencia de las compensaciones basadas en los hábitats distantes para las aves costeras migratorias. Las decisiones en torno a la ubicación de las compensaciones deberían estar impulsadas por el potencial para obtener resultados ecológicos equivalentes; sin embargo, al considerar compensaciones más alejadas, existe la necesidad de evaluar el incremento probable de riesgos junto a los beneficios potenciales. Aunque las compensaciones espacialmente flexibles tienen el potencial para proporcionar resultados más rentables y más beneficios colaterales, nuestro estudio de caso mostró la dificultad para demostrar estos beneficios en la práctica y los riesgos potenciales que necesitan considerarse para asegurar una ubicación efectiva de las compensaciones.

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity.

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km2 of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations' resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.

Retención de la vegetación natural para salvaguardar la biodiversidad y la humanidad Resumen Hoy en día hay muy poca integración de los esfuerzos mundiales para alcanzar los objetivos internacionales de reducción de las emisiones de carbono, impedimento de la pérdida de biodiversidad y conservación de los servicios ambientales esenciales. Estos objetivos dependen parcialmente de la conservación de los bosques, selvas y praderas naturales (por ejemplo, nativos y en su mayoría sin alteraciones) y seminaturales (por ejemplo, de uso humano sostenible o de baja intensidad). Obtuvimos de manera empírica objetivos espacialmente explícitos, cuantitativos y basados en áreas para la conservación de la vegetación terrestre natural y seminatural (por ejemplo, nativa) en todo el mundo para mostrar cómo unificar los objetivos internacionales. Usamos un mapa de 250 m de resolución de la cubierta vegetal natural y seminatural y, a partir de él, seleccionamos las áreas identificadas como importantes en diferentes acuerdos internacionales para alcanzar los objetivos globales de biodiversidad, carbono, suelo y agua. Al menos 67 millones de km2 de la vegetación terrestre de la Tierra (∼79% de la superficie de vegetación restante) requieren ser conservados para contribuir a los objetivos de conservación de la biodiversidad, el clima, el suelo y el agua dulce en virtud de cuatro de las resoluciones de las Naciones Unidas. Esto equivale a conservar la vegetación natural y seminatural en al menos el 50% de la superficie terrestre total de la Tierra (sin contar a la Antártida). Los esfuerzos de retención podrían contribuir a alcanzar múltiples objetivos simultáneamente, especialmente en donde la vegetación natural y seminatural puede gestionarse para lograr beneficios colaterales para la biodiversidad, el almacenamiento de carbono y la provisión de servicios ambientales. Esta gestión puede y debe ser impulsada y llevada a cabo por las personas que viven en y dependen de los lugares donde la vegetación natural y gestionada de forma sostenible permanece in situ y debe complementarse con la restauración y la gestión adecuada de entornos modificados por el hombre si se quieren alcanzar los objetivos globales.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Using video-based examiner score comparison and adjustment (VESCA) to compare the influence of examiners at different sites in a distributed objective structured clinical exam (OSCE).

PURPOSE: Ensuring equivalence of examiners' judgements within distributed objective structured clinical exams (OSCEs) is key to both fairness and validity but is hampered by lack of cross-over in the performances which different groups of examiners observe. This study develops a novel method called Video-based Examiner Score Comparison and Adjustment (VESCA) using it to compare examiners scoring from different OSCE sites for the first time. MATERIALS/ METHODS: Within a summative 16 station OSCE, volunteer students were videoed on each station and all examiners invited to score station-specific comparator videos in addition to usual student scoring. Linkage provided through the video-scores enabled use of Many Facet Rasch Modelling (MFRM) to compare 1/ examiner-cohort and 2/ site effects on students' scores. RESULTS: Examiner-cohorts varied by 6.9% in the overall score allocated to students of the same ability. Whilst only a tiny difference was apparent between sites, examiner-cohort variability was greater in one site than the other. Adjusting student scores produced a median change in rank position of 6 places (0.48 deciles), however 26.9% of students changed their rank position by at least 1 decile. By contrast, only 1 student's pass/fail classification was altered by score adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst comparatively limited examiner participation rates may limit interpretation of score adjustment in this instance, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using VESCA for quality assurance purposes in large scale distributed OSCEs.

Using modern portfolio theory to enhance ecosystem service delivery: A case study from China.

：Land management strategies often prioritize agricultural supply services at the expense of other ecosystem services. To achieve a high and steady supply of multiple ecosystem services, it is essential to optimize land management practices in areas suitable for agriculture. However, many studies on land management tend to focus on their benefits to ecosystem service delivery without adequately considering the potential risks to other services that might be involved. Here we use modern portfolio theory to quantitatively measure benefits and risks from land management strategies to enhance ecosystem services. We create seven land management scenarios that balance different kinds of ecosystem services in different ways in the agricultural production area of Maoming, Guangdong Province, China. The method yielded optimal portfolios of land management patterns that enhanced ecosystem services while reducing risk as much as possible. This includes a scenario delivering a 22% increase in agricultural production service, while simultaneously increasing the provision of nature-related ecosystem services by 2%. However, no optimization scenario was perfect, and there was always a trade-off between gaining certain ecosystem service benefits and creating a risk of losing others. Our portfolio theory approach reveals that it is essential to consider both the benefits and risks of land management strategies.

An emerging coastal wetland management dilemma between mangrove expansion and shorebird conservation.

Coastal wetlands around the world have been degraded by human activities. Global declines in the extent of important habitats including mangroves, salt marsh and tidal flats necessitate mitigation and restoration efforts, however some well-meaning management actions, particularly mangrove afforestation and breakwater construction, can inadvertently cause further loss and degradation if these actions are not planned carefully. In particular, there is a potential conflict between mangrove and shorebird conservation, because mangrove afforestation and restoration may occur at the expense of bare tidal flats, which form the main foraging habitats for threatened coastal migratory shorebirds as well as supporting other coastal organisms. Here, we present several case studies that illustrate the trade-off between mangroves and bare tidal flats. To investigate whether these examples reflect an emerging broad-scale issue, we use satellite imagery to develop a detailed quantification of the change in mangrove habitat extent in 22 important shorebird areas in mainland China between 2000 and 2015. Our results indicate that 1) the extent of mangroves across all sites expanded significantly between 2000 and 2015 (p < 0.01, n = 14) while tidal flat extent in the same areas declined significantly within the same period (p < 0.01, n = 21); 2) among the 14 sites where mangroves were present, the dual threat of mangrove expansion and tidal flat loss have considerably reduced shorebird habitat in eight of these sites. To ensure effective conservation of both mangroves and shorebirds, we propose a decision tree framework for resolving this emerging dilemma between mangrove afforestation and shorebird protection, which requires careful consideration of alternative management strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Effects of anthropogenic landscapes on population maintenance of waterbirds.

Anthropogenic impacts have reduced natural areas but increased the area of anthropogenic landscapes. There is debate about whether anthropogenic landscapes (e.g., farmlands, orchards, and fish ponds) provide alternatives to natural habitat and under what circumstances. We considered whether anthropogenic landscapes can mitigate population declines for waterbirds. We collected data on population trends and biological traits of 1203 populations of 579 species across the planet. Using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models, we tested whether the ability of a species to use an anthropogenic landscape can predict population trends of waterbird globally and of species of conservation concern. Anthropogenic landscapes benefited population maintenance of common but not less-common species. Conversely, the use of anthropogenic landscapes was associated with population declines for threatened species. Our findings delineate some limitations to the ability of anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate population declines, suggesting that the maintenance of global waterbird populations depends on protecting remaining natural areas and improving the habitat quality in anthropogenic landscapes. Article impact statement: Protecting natural areas and improving the quality of anthropogenic landscapes as habitat are both needed to achieve effective conservation.

Efectos de los Paisajes Antropogénicos sobre la Conservación de Poblaciones de Aves Acuáticas Resumen Los impactos antropogénicos han reducido las áreas naturales, pero han incrementado el área de los paisajes antropogénicos. Existe un debate sobre si los paisajes antropogénicos (p. ej.: campos de cultivo, huertos, estanques de peces) proporcionan alternativas al hábitat natural y bajo cuáles circunstancias. Consideramos si los paisajes antropogénicos pueden mitigar las declinaciones poblacionales de las aves acuáticas. Recolectamos datos sobre las tendencias poblacionales y las características biológicas de 1203 poblaciones de 579 especies de aves de todo el mundo. Mediante modelos bayesianos generalizados lineales mixtos, analizamos si la habilidad de una especie para usar un paisaje antropogénico puede pronosticar las tendencias poblacionales de las aves acuáticas a nivel mundial y de las especies de interés para la conservación. Los paisajes antropogénicos beneficiaron a la conservación de las poblaciones de especies comunes, pero no para las especies menos comunes. Por otro lado, el uso de paisajes antropogénicos estuvo asociado con las declinaciones poblacionales en las especies amenazadas. Nuestros descubrimientos delinean algunas limitaciones que tienen los paisajes antropogénicos para mitigar las declinaciones poblacionales, lo que sugiere que la conservación mundial de las poblaciones de aves acuáticas depende de la protección de las áreas naturales remanentes y del mejoramiento de la calidad del hábitat en los paisajes antropogénicos.

Determining influence, interaction and causality of contrast and sequence effects in objective structured clinical exams.

INTRODUCTION: Differential rater function over time (DRIFT) and contrast effects (examiners' scores biased away from the standard of preceding performances) both challenge the fairness of scoring in objective structured clinical exams (OSCEs). This is important as, under some circumstances, these effects could alter whether some candidates pass or fail assessments. Benefitting from experimental control, this study investigated the causality, operation and interaction of both effects simultaneously for the first time in an OSCE setting. METHODS: We used secondary analysis of data from an OSCE in which examiners scored embedded videos of student performances interspersed between live students. Embedded video position varied between examiners (early vs. late) whilst the standard of preceding performances naturally varied (previous high or low). We examined linear relationships suggestive of DRIFT and contrast effects in all within-OSCE data before comparing the influence and interaction of 'early' versus 'late' and 'previous high' versus 'previous low' conditions on embedded video scores. RESULTS: Linear relationships data did not support the presence of DRIFT or contrast effects. Embedded videos were scored higher early (19.9 [19.4-20.5]) versus late (18.6 [18.1-19.1], p < 0.001), but scores did not differ between previous high and previous low conditions. The interaction term was non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this instance, the small DRIFT effect we observed on embedded videos can be causally attributed to examiner behaviour. Contrast effects appear less ubiquitous than some prior research suggests. Possible mediators of these finding include the following: OSCE context, detail of task specification, examiners' cognitive load and the distribution of learners' ability. As the operation of these effects appears to vary across contexts, further research is needed to determine the prevalence and mechanisms of contrast and DRIFT effects, so that assessments may be designed in ways that are likely to avoid their occurrence. Quality assurance should monitor for these contextually variable effects in order to ensure OSCE equivalence.

Technology enhanced assessment: Ottawa consensus statement and recommendations.

INTRODUCTION: In 2011, a consensus report was produced on technology-enhanced assessment (TEA), its good practices, and future perspectives. Since then, technological advances have enabled innovative practices and tools that have revolutionised how learners are assessed. In this updated consensus, we bring together the potential of technology and the ultimate goals of assessment on learner attainment, faculty development, and improved healthcare practices. METHODS: As a material for the report, we used the scholarly publications on TEA in both HPE and general higher education, feedback from 2020 Ottawa Conference workshops, and scholarly publications on assessment technology practices during the Covid-19 pandemic. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The group identified areas of consensus that remained to be resolved and issues that arose in the evolution of TEA. We adopted a three-stage approach (readiness to adopt technology, application of assessment technology, and evaluation/dissemination). The application stage adopted an assessment 'lifecycle' approach and targeted five key foci: (1) Advancing authenticity of assessment, (2) Engaging learners with assessment, (3) Enhancing design and scheduling, (4) Optimising assessment delivery and recording learner achievement, and (5) Tracking learner progress and faculty activity and thereby supporting longitudinal learning and continuous assessment.

Determining the influence of different linking patterns on the stability of students' score adjustments produced using Video-based Examiner Score Comparison and Adjustment (VESCA).

BACKGROUND: Ensuring equivalence of examiners' judgements across different groups of examiners is a priority for large scale performance assessments in clinical education, both to enhance fairness and reassure the public. This study extends insight into an innovation called Video-based Examiner Score Comparison and Adjustment (VESCA) which uses video scoring to link otherwise unlinked groups of examiners. This linkage enables comparison of the influence of different examiner-groups within a common frame of reference and provision of adjusted "fair" scores to students. Whilst this innovation promises substantial benefit to quality assurance of distributed Objective Structured Clinical Exams (OSCEs), questions remain about how the resulting score adjustments might be influenced by the specific parameters used to operationalise VESCA. Research questions, How similar are estimates of students' score adjustments when the model is run with either: fewer comparison videos per participating examiner?; reduced numbers of participating examiners? METHODS: Using secondary analysis of recent research which used VESCA to compare scoring tendencies of different examiner groups, we made numerous copies of the original data then selectively deleted video scores to reduce the number of 1/ linking videos per examiner (4 versus several permutations of 3,2,or 1 videos) or 2/examiner participation rates (all participating examiners (76%) versus several permutations of 70%, 60% or 50% participation). After analysing all resulting datasets with Many Facet Rasch Modelling (MFRM) we calculated students' score adjustments for each dataset and compared these with score adjustments in the original data using Spearman's correlations. RESULTS: Students' score adjustments derived form 3 videos per examiner correlated highly with score adjustments derived from 4 linking videos (median Rho = 0.93,IQR0.90-0.95,p < 0.001), with 2 (median Rho 0.85,IQR0.81-0.87,p < 0.001) and 1 linking videos (median Rho = 0.52(IQR0.46-0.64,p < 0.001) producing progressively smaller correlations. Score adjustments were similar for 76% participating examiners and 70% (median Rho = 0.97,IQR0.95-0.98,p < 0.001), and 60% (median Rho = 0.95,IQR0.94-0.98,p < 0.001) participation, but were lower and more variable for 50% examiner participation (median Rho = 0.78,IQR0.65-0.83, some ns). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst VESCA showed some sensitivity to the examined parameters, modest reductions in examiner participation rates or video numbers produced highly similar results. Employing VESCA in distributed or national exams could enhance quality assurance or exam fairness.