Autoimmune conditions and gastric cancer risk in a population-based study in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Although overall incidence of gastric cancer is decreasing, incidence has been increasing among young people in some Western countries. This trend may stem from the increase in autoimmune conditions. METHODS: A nested case-control study of gastric cancer in UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Up to ten cancer-free controls were matched to cases by age and sex. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between analyzable autoimmune conditions (n = 34) and gastric cancer with Bonferroni correction. We evaluated associations between pernicious anaemia and other conditions. A meta-analysis of published prospective studies and ours was conducted. RESULTS: Among 6586 cases (1156 cardia, 1104 non-cardia, and 4334 overlapping/unspecified tumours) and 65,687 controls, any autoimmune condition was associated with gastric cancer (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01-1.20). Individuals with pernicious anaemia had higher gastric cancer risk than those without (OR = 2.75; 2.19-3.44). Among controls, pernicious anaemia was associated with seven other conditions (OR range: 2.21-29.80). The pooled estimate for any autoimmune condition and gastric cancer was 1.17 (1.14-1.21; n = 47,126 cases). CONCLUSION: Autoimmunity increases gastric cancer risk. Some autoimmune conditions may be indirectly associated with gastric cancer via pernicious anaemia. Pernicious anaemia could be considered for gastric cancer risk stratification and screening.

Telomere length and clonal chromosomal alterations in peripheral blood of patients with severe aplastic anaemia.

Severe aplastic anaemia (SAA) is a rare and life-threatening bone marrow failure disorder. We used data from the transplant outcomes in aplastic anaemia study to characterize mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs) in the peripheral blood of 738 patients with acquired SAA and evaluate their associations with telomere length (TL) and survival post-haematopoietic cell transplant (HCT). The median age at HCT was 20.4 years (range = 0.2-77.4). Patients with SAA had shorter TL than expected for their age (median TL percentile for age: 35.7th; range <1-99.99). mCAs were detected in 211 patients (28.6%), with chr6p copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (6p-CNLOH) in 15.9% and chr7 loss in 3.0% of the patients; chrX loss was detected in 4.1% of female patients. Negative correlations between mCA cell fraction and measured TL (r = -0.14, p = 0.0002), and possibly genetically predicted TL (r = -0.07, p = 0.06) were noted. The post-HCT 3-year survival probability was low in patients with chr7 loss (39% vs. 72% in patients with chr6-CNLOH, 60% in patients with other mCAs and 70% in patients with no mCAs; p-log rank = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, short TL (p = 0.01), but not chr7 loss (p = 0.29), was associated with worse post-HCT survival. TL may guide clinical decisions in patients with SAA.

Phenotypic and genetically predicted leucocyte telomere length and lung cancer risk in the prospective UK Biobank.

We investigated phenotypic leucocyte telomere length (LTL), genetically predicted LTL (gTL), and lung cancer risk among 371 890 participants, including 2829 incident cases, from the UK Biobank. Using multivariable Cox regression, we found dose-response relationships between longer phenotypic LTL (p-trendcontinuous=2.6×10-5), longer gTL predicted using a polygenic score with 130 genetic instruments (p-trendcontinuous=4.2×10-10), and overall lung cancer risk, particularly for adenocarcinoma. The associations were prominent among never smokers. Mendelian Randomization analyses supported causal associations between longer telomere length and lung cancer (HRper 1 SD gTL=1.87, 95% CI: 1.49 to 2.36, p=4.0×10-7), particularly adenocarcinoma (HRper 1 SD gTL=2.45, 95%CI: 1.69 to 3.57, p=6.5×10-6).

Genetic testing in severe aplastic anemia is required for optimal hematopoietic cell transplant outcomes.

Patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) can have an unrecognized inherited bone marrow failure syndrome (IBMFS) because of phenotypic heterogeneity. We curated germline genetic variants in 104 IBMFS-associated genes from exome sequencing performed on 732 patients who underwent hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) between 1989 and 2015 for acquired SAA. Patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants fitting known disease zygosity patterns were deemed unrecognized IBMFS. Carriers were defined as patients with a single P/LP variant in an autosomal recessive gene or females with an X-linked recessive P/LP variant. Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analysis with follow-up until 2017. We identified 113 P/LP single-nucleotide variants or small insertions/deletions and 10 copy number variants across 42 genes in 121 patients. Ninety-one patients had 105 in silico predicted deleterious variants of uncertain significance (dVUS). Forty-eight patients (6.6%) had an unrecognized IBMFS (33% adults), and 73 (10%) were carriers. No survival difference between dVUS and acquired SAA was noted. Compared with acquired SAA (no P/LP variants), patients with unrecognized IBMFS, but not carriers, had worse survival after HCT (IBMFS hazard ratio [HR], 2.13; 95% confidence interval[CI], 1.40-3.24; P = .0004; carriers HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.62-1.50; P = .86). Results were similar in analyses restricted to patients receiving reduced-intensity conditioning (n = 448; HR IBMFS = 2.39; P = .01). The excess mortality risk in unrecognized IBMFS attributed to death from organ failure (HR = 4.88; P < .0001). Genetic testing should be part of the diagnostic evaluation for all patients with SAA to tailor therapeutic regimens. Carriers of a pathogenic variant in an IBMFS gene can follow HCT regimens for acquired SAA.

HLA informs risk predictions after haploidentical stem cell transplantation with posttransplantation cyclophosphamide.

Hematopoietic cell transplantation from HLA-haploidentical related donors is increasingly used to treat hematologic cancers; however, characteristics of the optimal haploidentical donor have not been established. We studied the role of donor HLA mismatching in graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), disease recurrence, and survival after haploidentical donor transplantation with posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy) for 1434 acute leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome patients reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. The impact of mismatching in the graft-versus-host vector for HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1, and -DQB1 alleles, the HLA-B leader, and HLA-DPB1 T-cell epitope (TCE) were studied using multivariable regression methods. Outcome was associated with HLA (mis)matches at individual loci rather than the total number of HLA mismatches. HLA-DRB1 mismatches were associated with lower risk of disease recurrence. HLA-DRB1 mismatching with HLA-DQB1 matching correlated with improved disease-free survival. HLA-B leader matching and HLA-DPB1 TCE-nonpermissive mismatching were each associated with improved overall survival. HLA-C matching lowered chronic GVHD risk, and the level of HLA-C expression correlated with transplant-related mortality. Matching status at the HLA-B leader and HLA-DRB1, -DQB1, and -DPB1 predicted disease-free survival, as did patient and donor cytomegalovirus serostatus, patient age, and comorbidity index. A web-based tool was developed to facilitate selection of the best haploidentical-related donor by calculating disease-free survival based on these characteristics. In conclusion, HLA factors influence the success of haploidentical transplantation with PTCy. HLA-DRB1 and -DPB1 mismatching and HLA-C, -B leader, and -DQB1 matching are favorable. Consideration of HLA factors may help to optimize the selection of haploidentical related donors.

Genome-wide Association Study Identifies HLA-DPB1 as a Significant Risk Factor for Severe Aplastic Anemia.

Severe aplastic anemia (SAA) is a rare disorder characterized by hypoplastic bone marrow and progressive pancytopenia. The etiology of acquired SAA is not understood but is likely related to abnormal immune responses and environmental exposures. We conducted a genome-wide association study of individuals with SAA genetically matched to healthy controls in discovery (359 cases, 1,396 controls) and validation sets (175 cases, 1,059 controls). Combined analyses identified linked SNPs in distinct blocks within the major histocompatibility complex on 6p21. The top SNP encodes p.Met76Val in the P4 binding pocket of the HLA class II gene HLA-DPB1 (rs1042151A>G, odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50-2.03, p = 1.94 × 10-13) and was associated with HLA-DP cell surface expression in healthy individuals (p = 2.04 × 10-6). Phylogenetic analyses indicate that Val76 is not monophyletic and likely occurs in conjunction with different HLA-DP binding groove conformations. Imputation of HLA-DPB1 alleles revealed increased risk of SAA associated with Val76-encoding alleles DPB1∗03:01, (OR 1.66, p = 1.52 × 10-7), DPB1∗10:01 (OR 2.12, p = 0.0003), and DPB1∗01:01 (OR 1.60, p = 0.0008). A second SNP near HLA-B, rs28367832G>A, reached genome-wide significance (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.22-1.78, p = 7.27 × 10-9) in combined analyses; the association remained significant after excluding cases with clonal copy-neutral loss-of-heterozygosity affecting class I HLA genes (8.6% of cases and 0% of controls). SNPs in the HLA class II gene HLA-DPB1 and possibly class I (HLA-B) are associated with SAA. The replacement of Met76 to Val76 in certain HLA-DPB1 alleles might influence risk of SAA through mechanisms involving DP peptide binding specificity, expression, and/or other factors affecting DP function.

The distribution and accumulation of the shortest telomeres in telomere biology disorders.

Individuals with telomere biology disorders (TBDs) have very short telomeres, high risk of bone marrow failure (BMF), and reduced survival. Using data from TBD patients, a mean leukocyte Southern blot telomere length (TL) of 5 kilobases (kb) was estimated as the 'telomere brink' at which human survival is markedly reduced. However, the shortest telomere, not the mean TL, signals replicative senescence. We used the Telomere Shortest Length Assay (TeSLA) to tally TL of all 46 chromosomes in blood-derived DNA and examined its relationship with TBDs. Patients (n = 18) had much shorter mean TL (TeSmTL) (2.54 ± 0.41 kb vs. 4.48 ± 0.52 kb, p < 0.0001) and more telomeres <3 kb than controls (n = 22) (70.43 ± 8.76% vs. 33.05 ± 6.93%, p < 0.0001). The proportion of ultrashort telomeres (<1.6 kb) was also higher in patients than controls (39.29 ± 10.69% vs. 10.40 ± 4.09%, p < 0.0001). TeS <1.6 kb was associated with severe (n = 11) compared with non-severe (n = 7) BMF (p = 0.027). Patients with multi-organ manifestations (n = 10) had more telomeres <1.6 kb than those with one affected organ system (n = 8) (p = 0.029). Findings suggest that TBD clinical manifestations are associated with a disproportionately higher number of haematopoietic cell telomeres reaching a telomere brink, whose length at the single telomere level is yet to be determined.

Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of biliary tract cancers.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a female predominance, whereas the other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance, suggesting that sex hormones may be involved in carcinogenesis. We sought to evaluate the association between menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and the risk of BTC in women. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This nested case-control study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2017 with incident primary cancers of the gallbladder (GBC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), ampulla of Vater (AVC), and mixed type were matched to 5 controls on birth year, diagnosis year, and years in the general practice using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% CIs for associations between MHT use and BTC type. The sample consisted of 1,682 BTC cases (483 GBC, 870 CCA, 105 AVC, and 224 mixed) and 8,419 matched controls with a mean age of 73 (SD, 11) years. Combined formulations (estrogen-progesterone) were associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.08, 3.59). Orally administered MHT was associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.24, 4.17). Estrogen-only formulations (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.93) and cream or suppository administrations (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.95) were associated with decreased CCA risk. The number of prescriptions, dose, duration of use, and time since last use were not associated with GBC or CCA risk. MHT use was not associated with risk of AVC or mixed cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Combination MHT formulations and oral administrations were associated with increased GBC risk, whereas estrogen-only formulations were associated with a lower CCA risk. MHT formulation and administration should be carefully considered when prescribing.

The mutational landscape in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia and its impact on allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation outcomes: a Center for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Research (CIBMTR) analysis.

Somatic mutations are recognized as an important prognostic factor in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). However, limited data are available regarding their impact on outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). In this registry analysis conducted in collaboration with the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplantation Registry database/sample repository, we identified 313 adult patients with CMML (median age: 64 years, range, 28- 77) who underwent allogeneic HCT during 2001-2017 and had an available biospecimen in the form of a peripheral blood sample obtained prior to the start of conditioning. In multivariate analysis, a CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) score of intermediate-2 (HR=1.46, P=0.049) or high (HR=3.22, P=0.0004) correlated significantly with overall survival. When the molecularly informed CPSS-Mol prognostic model was applied, a high CPSS-Mol score (HR=2 P=0.0079) correlated significantly with overall survival. The most common somatic mutations were in ASXL1 (62%), TET2 (35%), KRAS/NRAS (33% combined), and SRSF2 (31%). DNMT3A and TP53 mutations were associated with decreased overall survival (HR=1.70 [95% CI: 1.11-2.60], P=0.0147 and HR=2.72 [95% CI: 1.37-5.39], P=0.0042, respectively) while DNMT3A, JAK2, and TP53 mutations were associated with decreased disease-free survival (HR=1.66 [95% CI: 1.11-2.49], P=0.0138, HR=1.79 [95% CI: 1.06-3.03], P=0.0293, and HR=2.94 [95% CI: 1.50-5.79], P=0.0018, respectively). The only mutation associated with increased relapse was TP53 (HR=2.94, P=0.0201). Nonetheless, the impact of TP53 mutations specifically should be interpreted cautiously given their rarity in CMML. We calculated the goodness of fit measured by Harrell's C-index for both the CPSS and CPSS-Mol, which were very similar. In summary, via registry data we have determined the mutational landscape in patients with CMML who underwent allogeneic HCT, and demonstrated an association between CPSS-Mol and transplant outcomes although without major improvement in the risk prediction beyond that provided by the CPSS.

Survival Modelling For Data From Combined Cohorts: Opening the Door to Meta Survival Analyses and Survival Analysis using Electronic Health Records.

Non-parametric estimation of the survival function using observed failure time data depends on the underlying data generating mechanism, including the ways in which the data may be censored and/or truncated. For data arising from a single source or collected from a single cohort, a wide range of estimators have been proposed and compared in the literature. Often, however, it may be possible, and indeed advantageous, to combine and then analyze survival data that have been collected under different study designs. We review non-parametric survival analysis for data obtained by combining the most common types of cohort. We have two main goals: (i) To clarify the differences in the model assumptions, and (ii) to provide a single lens through which some of the proposed estimators may be viewed. Our discussion is relevant to the meta analysis of survival data obtained from different types of study, and to the modern era of electronic health records.

Bile acid synthesis, modulation, and dementia: A metabolomic, transcriptomic, and pharmacoepidemiologic study.

BACKGROUND: While Alzheimer disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD) may be accelerated by hypercholesterolemia, the mechanisms underlying this association are unclear. We tested whether dysregulation of cholesterol catabolism, through its conversion to primary bile acids (BAs), was associated with dementia pathogenesis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a 3-step study design to examine the role of the primary BAs, cholic acid (CA), and chenodeoxycholic acid (CDCA) as well as their principal biosynthetic precursor, 7α-hydroxycholesterol (7α-OHC), in dementia. In Step 1, we tested whether serum markers of cholesterol catabolism were associated with brain amyloid accumulation, white matter lesions (WMLs), and brain atrophy. In Step 2, we tested whether exposure to bile acid sequestrants (BAS) was associated with risk of dementia. In Step 3, we examined plausible mechanisms underlying these findings by testing whether brain levels of primary BAs and gene expression of their principal receptors are altered in AD. Step 1: We assayed serum concentrations CA, CDCA, and 7α-OHC and used linear regression and mixed effects models to test their associations with brain amyloid accumulation (N = 141), WMLs, and brain atrophy (N = 134) in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA). The BLSA is an ongoing, community-based cohort study that began in 1958. Participants in the BLSA neuroimaging sample were approximately 46% male with a mean age of 76 years; longitudinal analyses included an average of 2.5 follow-up magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) visits. We used the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (N = 1,666) to validate longitudinal neuroimaging results in BLSA. ADNI is an ongoing, community-based cohort study that began in 2003. Participants were approximately 55% male with a mean age of 74 years; longitudinal analyses included an average of 5.2 follow-up MRI visits. Lower serum concentrations of 7α-OHC, CA, and CDCA were associated with higher brain amyloid deposition (p = 0.041), faster WML accumulation (p = 0.050), and faster brain atrophy mainly (false discovery rate [FDR] p = <0.001-0.013) in males in BLSA. In ADNI, we found a modest sex-specific effect indicating that lower serum concentrations of CA and CDCA were associated with faster brain atrophy (FDR p = 0.049) in males.Step 2: In the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) dataset, covering >4 million registrants from general practice clinics in the United Kingdom, we tested whether patients using BAS (BAS users; 3,208 with ≥2 prescriptions), which reduce circulating BAs and increase cholesterol catabolism, had altered dementia risk compared to those on non-statin lipid-modifying therapies (LMT users; 23,483 with ≥2 prescriptions). Patients in the study (BAS/LMT) were approximately 34%/38% male and with a mean age of 65/68 years; follow-up time was 4.7/5.7 years. We found that BAS use was not significantly associated with risk of all-cause dementia (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.72-1.46, p = 0.88) or its subtypes. We found a significant difference between the risk of VaD in males compared to females (p = 0.040) and a significant dose-response relationship between BAS use and risk of VaD (p-trend = 0.045) in males.Step 3: We assayed brain tissue concentrations of CA and CDCA comparing AD and control (CON) samples in the BLSA autopsy cohort (N = 29). Participants in the BLSA autopsy cohort (AD/CON) were approximately 50%/77% male with a mean age of 87/82 years. We analyzed single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-Seq) data to compare brain BA receptor gene expression between AD and CON samples from the Religious Orders Study and Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP) cohort (N = 46). ROSMAP is an ongoing, community-based cohort study that began in 1994. Participants (AD/CON) were approximately 56%/36% male with a mean age of 85/85 years. In BLSA, we found that CA and CDCA were detectable in postmortem brain tissue samples and were marginally higher in AD samples compared to CON. In ROSMAP, we found sex-specific differences in altered neuronal gene expression of BA receptors in AD. Study limitations include the small sample sizes in the BLSA cohort and likely inaccuracies in the clinical diagnosis of dementia subtypes in primary care settings. CONCLUSIONS: We combined targeted metabolomics in serum and amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) and MRI of the brain with pharmacoepidemiologic analysis to implicate dysregulation of cholesterol catabolism in dementia pathogenesis. We observed that lower serum BA concentration mainly in males is associated with neuroimaging markers of dementia, and pharmacological lowering of BA levels may be associated with higher risk of VaD in males. We hypothesize that dysregulation of BA signaling pathways in the brain may represent a plausible biologic mechanism underlying these results. Together, our observations suggest a novel mechanism relating abnormalities in cholesterol catabolism to risk of dementia.

Measurement of Telomere Length for Longitudinal Analysis: Implications of Assay Precision.

Researchers increasingly wish to test hypotheses concerning the impact of environmental or disease exposures on telomere length (TL), and they use longitudinal study designs to do so. In population studies, TL is usually measured with a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-based method. This method has been validated by calculating its correlation with a gold standard method such as Southern blotting (SB) in cross-sectional data sets. However, in a cross-section, the range of true variation in TL is large, and measurement error is introduced only once. In a longitudinal study, the target variation of interest is small, and measurement error is introduced at both baseline and follow-up. In this paper, we present results from a small data set (n = 20) in which leukocyte TL was measured twice 6.6 years apart by means of both qPCR and SB. The cross-sectional correlations between qPCR and SB were high at both baseline (r = 0.90) and follow-up (r = 0.85), yet their correlation for TL change was poor (r = 0.48). Moreover, the qPCR data but not the SB data showed strong signatures of measurement error. Through simulation, we show that the statistical power gain from performing a longitudinal analysis is much greater for SB than for qPCR. We discuss implications for optimal study design and analysis.

Diabetes, metformin and cancer risk in myotonic dystrophy type I.

Myotonic dystrophy type I (DM1) is an autosomal dominant multisystem disorder characterized by myotonia and muscle weakness. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cancer have been shown to be part of the DM1 phenotype. Metformin, a well-established agent for the management of T2D, is thought to have cancer-preventive effects in the general population. In our study, we aimed to assess the association between T2D, metformin use and the risk of cancer in DM1 patients. We identified a cohort of 913 DM1 patients and an age-, sex- and clinic-matched cohort of 12,318 DM1-free controls from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a large primary care records database. We used Cox regression models to assess cancer risk in T2D patients who were metformin users or nonusers compared to patients without T2D. Separate analyses were conducted for DM1 patients and controls. T2D was more prevalent in DM1 than in controls (8% vs. 3%, p < 0.0001). DM1 patients with T2D, compared to those without T2D, were more likely to develop cancer (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-10.97; p = 0.02), but not if they were treated with metformin (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.06-3.35; p = 0.42). Among controls, we observed no significant associations between T2D and cancer risk in either users or nonusers of Metformin (HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 0.91-1.79; p = 0.16 and HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.72-1.79; p = 0.59, respectively). These results show an association between T2D and cancer risk in DM1 patients and may provide new insights into the possible benefits of Metformin use in DM1.

Population Frequency of Fanconi Pathway Gene Variants and Their Association with Survival After Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Severe Aplastic Anemia.

Severe aplastic anemia (SAA) is most frequently immune-mediated; however, rare inherited bone marrow failure syndromes, such as Fanconi anemia (FA), may be causal and can present as aplastic anemia (AA). FA is primarily an autosomal recessive disorder caused by the presence of 2 pathogenic variants in a single FA/BRCA DNA repair pathway gene. Patients with SAA often undergo genetic testing during clinical evaluation that may identify single deleterious alleles in FA pathway genes. We quantified the rate of germline single deleterious alleles in 22 FA genes using both a general population database (3234 variants, 125,748 exomes) and in a cohort of patients with SAA undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) (21 variants in 730 patients). The variants were classified as deleterious using in silico tools (REVEL, MetaSVM, VEP) and database resources (ClinVar, LOVD-FA). We found similar rates of single deleterious alleles in FA genes in both groups (2.6% and 2.9%). The presence of a single deleterious variant in a gene for FA in SAA HCT recipients did not affect the overall survival after HCT (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.37 to 1.95; P  = 0.71), or post-HCT cancer risk (P = 0.52). Our results demonstrate that the identification of a germline monoallelic deleterious variant in an FA gene in patients with idiopathic SAA does not influence the outcome of HCT. Our findings suggest that there is no need for special treatment considerations for patients with SAA and a single deleterious FA allele identified on genetic testing.

A Personalized Prediction Model for Outcomes after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant in Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) remains the only potentially curative option for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Mortality after HCT is high, with deaths related to relapse or transplant-related complications. Thus, identifying patients who may or may not benefit from HCT is clinically important. We identified 1514 patients with MDS enrolled in the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Registry and had their peripheral blood samples sequenced for the presence of 129 commonly mutated genes in myeloid malignancies. A random survival forest algorithm was used to build the model, and the accuracy of the proposed model was assessed by concordance index. The median age of the entire cohort was 59 years. The most commonly mutated genes were ASXL1(20%), TP53 (19%), DNMT3A (15%), and TET2 (12%). The algorithm identified the following variables prior to HCT that impacted overall survival: age, TP53 mutations, absolute neutrophils count, cytogenetics per International Prognostic Scoring System-Revised, Karnofsky performance status, conditioning regimen, donor age, WBC count, hemoglobin, diagnosis of therapy-related MDS, peripheral blast percentage, mutations in RAS pathway, JAK2 mutation, number of mutations/sample, ZRSR2, and CUX1 mutations. Different variables impacted the risk of relapse post-transplant. The new model can provide survival probability at different time points that are specific (personalized) for a given patient based on the clinical and mutational variables that are listed above. The outcomes' probability at different time points may aid physicians and patients in their decision regarding HCT.

Risk Factors for Graft-versus-Host Disease in Haploidentical Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Using Post-Transplant Cyclophosphamide.

Post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) has significantly increased the successful use of haploidentical donors with a relatively low incidence of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Given its increasing use, we sought to determine risk factors for GVHD after haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation (haplo-HCT) using PTCy. Data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research on adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia, acute lymphoblastic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, or chronic myeloid leukemia who underwent PTCy-based haplo-HCT (2013 to 2016) were analyzed and categorized into 4 groups based on myeloablative (MA) or reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) and bone marrow (BM) or peripheral blood (PB) graft source. In total, 646 patients were identified (MA-BM = 79, MA-PB = 183, RIC-BM = 192, RIC-PB = 192). The incidence of grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD at 6 months was highest in MA-PB (44%), followed by RIC-PB (36%), MA-BM (36%), and RIC-BM (30%) (P = .002). The incidence of chronic GVHD at 1 year was 40%, 34%, 24%, and 20%, respectively (P < .001). In multivariable analysis, there was no impact of stem cell source or conditioning regimen on grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD; however, older donor age (30 to 49 versus <29 years) was significantly associated with higher rates of grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 2.12; P = .01). In contrast, PB compared to BM as a stem cell source was a significant risk factor for the development of chronic GVHD (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.62; P = .01) in the RIC setting. There were no differences in relapse or overall survival between groups. Donor age and graft source are risk factors for acute and chronic GVHD, respectively, after PTCy-based haplo-HCT. Our results indicate that in RIC haplo-HCT, the risk of chronic GVHD is higher with PB stem cells, without any difference in relapse or overall survival.

Pre-transplant short telomeres are associated with high mortality risk after unrelated donor haematopoietic cell transplant for severe aplastic anaemia.

Telomeres are essential for chromosomal stability and markers of biological age. We evaluated the effect of pre-transplant short (<10th percentile-for-age) or very short (<5th or <1st percentile-for-age) leucocyte telomere length on survival after unrelated donor haematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acquired severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). Patient pre-transplant blood samples and clinical data were available at the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. We used quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction to measure relative telomere length (RTL) in 490 SAA patients who received HCT between 1990 and 2013 (median age = 20 years). One hundred and twelve patients (22·86%) had pre-HCT RTL <10th percentile-for-age, with the majority below the 5th percentile (N = 80, 71·43%). RTL <10th percentile-for-age was associated with a higher risk of post-HCT mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1·78, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1·18-2·69, P = 0·006) compared with RTL ≥50th percentile; no survival differences were noted in longer RTL categories (P > 0·10). Time-dependent effects for post-HCT mortality were only observed in relation to very short RTL; HR comparing RTL <5th versus ≥5th percentile = 1·38, P = 0·15 for the first 12 months after HCT, and HR = 3·91, P < 0·0001, thereafter, P-heterogeneity = 0·008; the corresponding HRs for RTL <1st versus ≥1st percentile = 1·29, P = 0·41, and HR = 5·18, P < 0·0001, P-heterogeneity = 0·005. The study suggests a potential role for telomere length in risk stratification of SAA patients in regard to their HCT survival.

Risk factors for inflammatory and non-inflammatory breast cancer in North Africa.

PURPOSE: Studies of the etiology of inflammatory breast cancer (IBC), a rare but aggressive breast cancer, have been hampered by limited risk factor information. We extend previous studies by evaluating a broader range of risk factors. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2015, we conducted a case-control study of IBC at six centers in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco; enrolled were 267 IBC cases and for comparison 274 non-IBC cases and 275 controls, both matched on age and geographic area to the IBC cases. We administered questionnaires and collected anthropometric measurements for all study subjects. We used multiple imputation methods to account for missing values and calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using polytomous logistic regression comparing each of the two case groups to the controls, with statistical tests for the difference between the coefficients for the two case groups. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, a livebirth within the previous 2 years (OR 4.6; 95% CI 1.8 to 11.7) and diabetes (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.0) were associated with increased risk of IBC, but not non-IBC (OR 0.9; 95% CI 0.3 to 2.5 and OR 0.9; 95% CI 0.5 to 1.6 for livebirth and diabetes, respectively). A family history of breast cancer, inflammatory-like breast problems, breast trauma, and low socioeconomic status were associated with increased risk of both tumor types. CONCLUSIONS: We identified novel risk factors for IBC and non-IBC, some of which preferentially increased risk of IBC compared to non-IBC. Upon confirmation, these findings could help illuminate the etiology and aid in prevention of this aggressive cancer.

Donor telomere length and causes of death after unrelated hematopoietic cell transplantation in patients with marrow failure.

Previous studies have suggested that longer donor leukocyte telomere length (TL) is associated with improved survival after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in severe aplastic anemia (SAA). This study aimed to determine whether cell-specific lymphocyte TL is associated with certain post-HCT causes of death. We used flow cytometry and fluorescence in situ hybridization to measure TL in donor total lymphocytes and subsets: naïve enriched T cells (CD45RA+CD20-), memory enriched T cells (CD45RA-CD20-), natural killer (NK) fully differentiated T cells (CD45RA+CD57+), and B cells (CD45RA+CD20+). Competing risk survival regression was used for cause-specific death analyses. Clinical data and biospecimens were available from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database and biorepository. The study included 197 patients who underwent unrelated-donor HCT for SAA between 1988 and 2004. The median age at HCT was 15 years (range, 0.5-40 years), and the median follow-up was 5 years (range, <1 month to 20.7 years). Longer donor TL in all cell subsets was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (P < .01). In cause-specific mortality analyses, longer TL in B cells (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.87; P = .006) and possibly NK fully differentiated T cells (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.97; P = .03) was associated with lower risk of infection-related death. Donor TL in other tested lymphocyte subsets was not statistically significantly associated with death resulting from graft-versus-host disease or graft failure (P > .05). However, a trend toward excess risk of graft-versus-host mortality was noted (HR for total lymphocyte TL, 1.26; P = .15). In conclusion, longer donor TL was associated with reduced rate of infection-related deaths after HCT for SAA.

The role of 5α-reductase inhibitors in gastro-oesophageal cancer risk: A nested case-control study.

PURPOSE: The strong male predominance of gastro-oesophageal cancer suggests that sex hormones play an important role. 5α-Reductase (5AR) inhibitors have antiandrogen effects and have been shown to decrease cancer cell proliferation and metastasis. We conducted the first epidemiologic investigation into the association between 5AR inhibitor use and gastro-oesophageal cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within the Scottish Primary Care Clinical Information Unit Research database. Male cases diagnosed with oesophageal or gastric cancer between 1999 and 2011 were matched to up to five male controls based on birth year, diagnosis year, and general practice. We used electronic prescribing records to ascertain medication use. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between 5AR inhibitor use and cancer risk, after adjusting for comorbidities and aspirin, statin, or proton pump inhibitor use. RESULTS: The study included 2003 gastro-oesophageal cancer cases and 9650 controls. There was some evidence of reduced gastro-oesophageal cancer risk among 5AR inhibitor users (adjusted OR = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.56-1.02), particularly for finasteride (adjusted OR = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.94). These decreases were more marked among those who received at least 3 years of 5AR inhibitors (adjusted OR = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.27-1.05; P value = .071) or finasteride (adjusted OR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.24-0.99; P value = .046). CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of reduced gastro-oesophageal cancer risk among users of 5AR inhibitors, particularly finasteride. However, larger epidemiological studies are required before randomised controlled trials are considered.