Machine Learning Risk Prediction Model of 90-day Mortality After Gastrectomy for Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of 90-day mortality (90DM) using machine learning in a large multicenter cohort of patients undergoing gastric cancer resection with curative intent. BACKGROUND: The 90DM rate after gastrectomy for cancer is a quality of care indicator in surgical oncology. There is a lack of well-validated instruments for personalized prognosis of gastric cancer. METHODS: Consecutive patients with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent potentially curative gastrectomy between 2014 and 2021 registered in the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer Registry database were included. The 90DM for all causes was the study outcome. Preoperative clinical characteristics were tested in four 90DM predictive models: Cross Validated Elastic regularized logistic regression method (cv-Enet), boosting linear regression (glmboost), random forest, and an ensemble model. Performance was evaluated using the area under the curve by 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: A total of 3182 and 260 patients from 39 institutions in 6 regions were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The 90DM rate was 5.6% and 6.2%, respectively. The random forest model showed the best discrimination capacity with a validated area under the curve of 0.844 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.841-0.848] as compared with cv-Enet (0.796, 95% CI: 0.784-0.808), glmboost (0.797, 95% CI: 0.785-0.809), and ensemble model (0.847, 95% CI: 0.836-0.858) in the development cohort. Similar discriminative capacity was observed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A robust clinical model for predicting the risk of 90DM after surgery of gastric cancer was developed. Its use may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions.

International External Validation of Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality after Gastrectomy for Cancer Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Radical gastrectomy remains the main treatment for gastric cancer, despite its high mortality. A clinical predictive model of 90-day mortality (90DM) risk after gastric cancer surgery based on the Spanish EURECCA registry database was developed using a matching learning algorithm. We performed an external validation of this model based on data from an international multicenter cohort of patients. METHODS: A cohort of patients from the European GASTRODATA database was selected. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables in the original and validation cohorts were compared. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) for a random forest model. RESULTS: The validation cohort included 2546 patients from 24 European hospitals. The advanced clinical T- and N-category, neoadjuvant therapy, open procedures, total gastrectomy rates, and mean volume of the centers were significantly higher in the validation cohort. The 90DM rate was also higher in the validation cohort (5.6%) vs. the original cohort (3.7%). The AUC in the validation model was 0.716. CONCLUSION: The externally validated model for predicting the 90DM risk in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy with curative intent continues to be as useful as the original model in clinical practice.

Cost analysis of a patient blood management program for patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery.

Patient Blood Management (PBM) programs have probed to reduce blood transfusions and postoperative complications following gastric cancer resection, but evidence on their economic benefit is scarce. A recent prospective interventional study of our group described a reduction in transfusions, infectious complications and length of stay after implementation of a multicenter PBM program in patients undergoing elective gastric cancer resection with curative intent. The aim of the present study was to analyze the economic impact associated with these clinical benefits. The mean [and 95% CI] of total healthcare cost per patient was lower (-1955 [-3764, -119] €) after the PBM program implementation. The main drivers of this reduction were the hospital stay (-1847 [-3161, -553] €), blood transfusions (-100 [-145, -56] €), and post-operative complications (-162 [-718, 411] €). Total societal cost was reduced by -2243 [-4244, -210] € per patient. These findings highlight the potential economic benefit of PBM strategies.

Effect of Perioperative Blood Transfusions and Infectious Complications on Inflammatory Activation and Long-Term Survival Following Gastric Cancer Resection.

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of perioperative blood transfusion and infectious complications on postoperative changes of inflammatory markers, as well as on disease-free survival (DFS) in patients undergoing curative gastric cancer resection. Methods: Multicenter cohort study in all patients undergoing gastric cancer resection with curative intent. Patients were classified into four groups based on their perioperative course: one, no blood transfusion and no infectious complication; two, blood transfusion; three, infectious complication; four, both transfusion and infectious complication. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was determined at diagnosis, immediately before surgery, and 10 days after surgery. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to analyze the relationship of perioperative group and dynamic changes of NLR with disease-free survival. Results: 282 patients were included, 181 in group one, 23 in group two, 55 in group three, and 23 in group four. Postoperative NLR changes showed progressive increase in the four groups. Univariate analysis showed that NLR change > 2.6 had a significant association with DFS (HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.06−2.26; p = 0.025), which was maintained in multivariate analysis (HR 1.67; 95% CI 1.14−2.46; p = 0.009). Perioperative classification was an independent predictor of DFS, with a progressive difference from group one: group two, HR 0.80 (95% CI: 0.40−1.61; p = 0.540); group three, HR 1.42 (95% CI: 0.88−2.30; p = 0.148), group four, HR 2.85 (95% CI: 1.64−4.95; p = 0.046). Conclusions: Combination of perioperative blood transfusion and infectious complications following gastric cancer surgery was related to greater NLR increase and poorer DFS. These findings suggest that perioperative blood transfusion and infectious complications may have a synergic effect creating a pro-inflammatory activation that favors tumor recurrence.

Textbook outcome and survival after gastric cancer resection with curative intent: A population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The concept of textbook outcome (TO) has been proposed for analyzing quality of surgical care. This study assessed the incidence of TO among patients undergoing curative gastric cancer resection, predictors for TO achievement, and the association of TO with survival. METHOD: All patients with gastric and gastroesophageal junction cancers undergoing curative gastrectomy between January 2014-December 2017 were identified from a population-based database (Spanish EURECCA Registry). TO included: macroscopically complete resection at the time of operation, R0 resection, ≥15 lymph nodes removed and examined, no serious postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥II), no re-intervention, hospital stay ≤14 days, no 30-day readmissions and no 90-day mortality. Logistic regression was used to assess the adjusted achievement of TO. Cox survival regression was used to compare conditional adjusted survival across groups. RESULTS: In total, 1293 patients were included, and TO was achieved in 541 patients (41.1%). Among the criteria, "macroscopically complete resection" had the highest compliance (96.5%) while "no serious complications" had the lowest compliance (63.7%). Age (OR 0.53 for the 65-74 years and OR 0.34 for the ≥75 years age group), Charlson comorbidity index ≥3 (OR 0.53, 95%CI 0.34-0.82), neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (OR 0.24, 95%CI 0.08-0.70), multivisceral resection (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.33-0.91), and surgery performed in a community hospital (OR 0.65, CI95% 0.46-0.91) were independently associated with not achieving TO. TO was independently associated with conditional survival (HR 0.67, 95%CI 0.55-0.83). CONCLUSION: TO was achieved in 41.1% of patients who underwent gastric cancer resection with curative intent and was associated with longer survival.

Improved postoperative outcomes and reduced transfusion rates after implementation of a Patient Blood Management program in gastric cancer surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Gastric cancer patients are often transfused with red blood cells, with negative impact on postoperative course. This multicenter prospective interventional cohort study aimed to determine whether implementation of a Patient Blood Management (PBM) program, was associated with a decrease in transfusion rate and improvements in clinical outcomes in gastric cancer surgery. METHODS: We compared transfusion practices and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing elective gastric cancer resection before and after implementing a PBM program, including strategies to detect and treat anemia and restrictive transfusion practice (2014-2018). Primary outcome was transfusion rate (TR). Secondary outcomes were complications, reoperations, length of stay, readmissions, 90-day mortality and failure-to-rescue. Differences were adjusted by confounding factors. RESULTS: Some 789 patients were included (496 pre- and 293 post-PBM). TR decreased from 39.1% to 27.0% (adjusted difference -9.1, 95% CI -15.2 to -2.9), being reduction particularly significant in patients with anemia, ASA score 3-4, locally advanced tumors, undergoing open surgery and total gastrectomy. Infectious complications diminished from 25% to 16.4% (-6.1, 95%CI -11.5 to -0.7), reoperations from 8.1% to 6.1% (-2.2, 95%CI -5.1 to +0.6), median length of stay from 11 [IQR 8-18] to 8 [7-12] days (p < 0.001), hospital readmission from 14.1% to 8.9% (-5.4, 95%CI -9.6 to -1.1), mortality from 7.9% to 4.8% (-2.4, 95%CI -4.7 to -0.01), and failure-to rescue from 62.7% to 32.7% (-23.1, 95%CI -37.7 to -8.5). CONCLUSION: Implementation of a PBM program was associated with a reduction in transfusion rate and improvement in postoperative outcomes in gastric cancer patients undergoing curative resection.

Perioperative transfusion management in gastric cancer surgery: Analysis of the Spanish subset of the EURECCA oesophago-gastric cancer registry. / Conducta transfusional perioperatoria en la cirugía del cáncer gástrico: análisis del registro del grupo español EURECCA de cáncer esófago-gástrico.

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated allogenic packed red blood cell (aPRBC) transfusion rates in patients undergoing resection for gastric cancer and the implementation of blood-saving protocols (BSP). METHODS: Retrospective study of all gastric cancer patients operated on with curative intent in Catalonia and Navarra (2011-2013) and included in the Spanish subset of the EURECCA Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Registry. Hospitals with BSP were defined as those with a preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) optimisation circuit associated with restrictive transfusion strategies. Predictors of aPRBC transfusion were identified by multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 652 patients were included, 274 (42.0%) of which received aPRBC transfusion. Six of the 19 participating hospitals had BSP and treated 145 (22.2%) patients. Low Hb level at diagnosis (10 vs 12.4g/dL), ASA score III/IV, pT3-4, open surgery, associated visceral resection, and having being operated on in a hospital without BSP were predictors of aPRBC transfusion, while low Hb level, associated visceral resection, and non-BSP hospital remained predictors in the multivariate analysis. In case of comparable risk factors for aPRBC transfusion, there was a higher use of preoperative intravenous iron treatment (26.2% vs 13.2%) and a lower percentage of transfusions (31.7% vs 45%) in hospitals with BSP. CONCLUSIONS: The perioperative transfusion rate in gastric cancer was 42%. Hospitals with BSP showed a significant reduction of blood transfusions but treated only 22% of patients. Main predictors of aPRBC were low Hb level, associated visceral resection, and undergoing surgery at a hospital without BSP.

Video-assisted surgery in gastric cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The present study presents the initial results of the use of video-assisted surgery in the curative intent treatment of gastric cancer in a specialised unit of esophago-gastric pathology. METHODS: Since December 2002 we have substituted laparotomy for video-assisted surgery for the surgical treatment of gastric cancer. We report our initial experience in 28 patients. In 20 we performed a total gastrectomy with Roux Y esophago-jejunum reconstruction. In another 8 cases we performed subtotal gastrectomy with Roux Y reconstruction. The anastomoses in total gastrectomy were performed with laparoscopy with the EEA head descending via the endo-esophageal route. The resected piece is extracted via minimum laparotomy. The associated complete lympadenectomy D2 was performed in the tumours of the gastric antrum and D1 plus the lymph node groups 7, 8, 9 and proximal 11 at the second level in the gastric body and fundus. RESULTS: The mean duration of intervention was 222 minutes and the mean blood loss was 185 ml. Mortality was 3.7% and morbidity was 19%. There was a reduction in post-operative analgesia requirements and the mean hospital stay was 11 days. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric resection and related lympadenectomy can be performed using video-assisted surgery in a manner that is as safe as conventional surgery and, further, has considerable advantages. The greater complexity requires that the surgical team is better trained in the use of the laparoscopy technique. In the few studies on the theme, there appears to be no oncological inconveniences associated with the technique.