RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Between 2010 and 2020, the New Zealand (NZ) Government increased tobacco excise tax by inflation plus 10% each year. We reviewed market structure changes and examined whether NZ tobacco companies shifted excise tax increases to maintain the affordability of lower priced cigarette brands. METHODS: We cluster-analysed market data that tobacco companies supply to the NZ Ministry of Health, created four price partitions and examined the size and share of these over time. For each partition, we analysed cigarette brand numbers and market share, calculated the volume-weighted real stick price for each year and compared this price across different price partitions. We calculated the net real retail price (price before tax) for each price partition and compared these prices before and after plain packaging took effect. RESULTS: The number and market share of Super Value and Budget brands increased, while those of Everyday and Premium brands decreased. Differences between the price of Premium and Super Value brands increased, as did the net retail price difference for these partitions. Following plain packaging's implementation, Super Value brand numbers more than doubled; contrary to industry predictions, the price difference between these and higher priced brands did not narrow. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2010 and 2020, NZ tobacco companies introduced more Super Value cigarette brands and shifted excise tax increases to reduce the impact these had on low-priced brands. Setting a minimum retail price for cigarettes could curtail tobacco companies' ability to undermine tobacco taxation policies designed to reduce smoking.
RESUMO
On-pack tobacco warnings typically feature long-term health risks, which many young adults rationalize or reject. We examined the emotions generated by more proximal warnings to see if we could identify common features among the most effective warnings. Respondents in a sample of 474 smokers and 476 susceptible non-smokers used a modified Geneva Emotion Wheel (GEW) to assess cigarette packs displaying 12 test warnings and one current warning. The strongest emotions aroused in smokers were disgust, disappointment, and regret. Three warnings showing the effect of smoking on babies and animals had significantly higher emotional potency scores than a current health warning. Among susceptible non-smokers, warnings showing harm to animals, child labor, and a dying smoker had the highest emotional potency. Stronger negative emotions were elicited from both smokers and susceptible non-smokers by warnings that featured more proximal outcomes than are typically shown in on-pack tobacco warnings. On-pack warnings that resonate with young people, the group most at risk of smoking and most likely to benefit from quitting, could promote cessation and deter initiation more effectively than warnings depicting long-term health outcomes. The GEW could be used to screen potential warning images to identify those most likely to be worth evaluating.