The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

The changing landscape of both causes and locations of death in a regional HIV population 2010-2021.

BACKGROUND: Although HIV-related deaths among people with HIV have dramatically decreased, deaths from other medical conditions and non-medical events have increased. The location of death among people with HIV remains underreported. OBJECTIVES: We reviewed the deaths, causes of death, and reported location of death (i.e. within or outside of medical settings) of all people with HIV with the Southern Alberta Cohort, Calgary, Canada, between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2022. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study reviewing all deaths within a comprehensive geographically defined HIV cohort over 11 years. RESULTS: Deaths from HIV-related causes decreased from 52% of all deaths in 2010 to 14% in 2021. In 2021, non-HIV medical deaths increased from 38% to 44%, and non-medical deaths (e.g. violence, suicide, drug overdose) increased from 0.5% to 39%. Of non-medical deaths, 67% resulted from substance use/overdose. Overall, deaths in any medical setting decreased from 91% in 2010 to 39% in 2021; 61% of all deaths occurred in a medical setting (e.g. hospital/emergency department or supported/long-term/hospice care), 27% in a residence, and 9% in the community. CONCLUSION: The shifting causes of death (i.e. fewer HIV-related deaths, more overdose deaths) and location of death (i.e. fewer in medical settings, more at home/in the community) requires close monitoring so future resources can be matched to predicted patient needs.

Evaluation of mean corpuscular volume among anemic people with HIV in North America following ART initiation.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is common and associated with increased morbidity among people with HIV (PWH). Classification of anemia using the mean corpuscular volume (MCV) can help investigate the underlying causative factors of anemia. We characterize anemia using MCV among PWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and identify the risk factors for normocytic, macrocytic, and microcytic anemias. METHODS: Including PWH with anemia (hemoglobin measure < 12.9 g/dL among men and < 11.9 g/dL among women) in the NA-ACCORD from 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017, we estimated the annual distribution of normocytic (80-100 femtolitre (fL)), macrocytic (> 100 fL) or microcytic (< 80 fL) anemia based on the lowest hemoglobin within each year. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations were used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors for macrocytic (vs. normocytic) and microcytic (vs. normocytic) anemia stratified by sex. RESULTS: Among 37,984 hemoglobin measurements that identified anemia in 14,590 PWH, 27,909 (74%) were normocytic, 4257 (11%) were microcytic, and 5818 (15%) were macrocytic. Of the anemic PWH included over the study period, 1910 (13%) experienced at least one measure of microcytic anemia and 3208 (22%) at least one measure of macrocytic anemia. Normocytic anemia was most common among both males and females, followed by microcytic among females and macrocytic among males. Over time, the proportion of anemic PWH who have macrocytosis decreased while microcytosis increased. Macrocytic (vs. normocytic) anemia is associated with increasing age and comorbidities. With increasing age, microcytic anemia decreased among females but not males. A greater proportion of PWH with normocytic anemia had CD4 counts ≤ 200 cells/mm3 and had recently initiated ART. CONCLUSION: In anemic PWH, normocytic anemia was most common. Over time macrocytic anemia decreased, and microcytic anemia increased irrespective of sex. Normocytic anemia is often due to chronic disease and may explain the greater risk for normocytic anemia among those with lower CD4 counts or recent ART initiation. Identified risk factors for type-specific anemias including sex, age, comorbidities, and HIV factors, can help inform targeted investigation into the underlying causes.

Neurologic infections in people with HIV: shifting epidemiological and clinical patterns.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to define the frequency, risk factors, and clinical outcomes of both AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining neurologic infections among people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study by linking the clinical database at the Southern Alberta HIV Clinic (SAC) with the regional hospital and microbiology databases to identify cases and the associated morbidity and mortality for these neurologic infections from 1995 to 2018. METHODS: Neurologic infections were categorized into AIDS-defining and non-AIDS defining. Annual incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated. Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals of risk factors for neurologic infections in PWH and mortality outcomes. RESULTS: Among 2910 PWH contributing 24 237 years of follow-up, 133 (4.6%) neurologic infections were identified; 107 (80%) were AIDS-defining and 26 (20%) non-AIDS defining. While the incidence of AIDS-defining neurologic infections declined over time, no change was seen in incidence of non-AIDS defining infections. The risk of having any neurologic infection was greater among black PWH (aHR = 2.5 [1.6-4.0]) (vs. white PWH) and those with a CD4 + T-cell nadir of less than 200 cells/µl (aHR = 6.6 [4.0-11.1]) (vs. ≥200 cells/µl). More AIDS-defining neurologic infections occurred in PWH with lower CD4 + T-cell counts and higher HIV viral loads. PWH with any neurologic infections experienced more seizures, strokes, all-cause mortality (aHR = 2.2 [1.5-3.2] and HIV-related mortality (aHR = 6.4 [3.9-10.7] (vs. no neurologic infection). CONCLUSION: Both AIDS and non-AIDS defining neurologic infections continue to occur in PWH resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. Early diagnosis and initiation of ART remain crucial in preventing neurological infections in PWH.

Longitudinal trends in causes of death among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America from 1996 to 2020: a collaboration of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates among people with HIV have fallen since 1996 following the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patterns of cause-specific mortality are evolving as the population with HIV ages. We aimed to investigate longitudinal trends in cause-specific mortality among people with HIV starting ART in Europe and North America. METHODS: In this collaborative observational cohort study, we used data from 17 European and North American HIV cohorts contributing data to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We included data for people with HIV who started ART between 1996 and 2020 at the age of 16 years or older. Causes of death were classified into a single cause by both a clinician and an algorithm if International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision data were available, or independently by two clinicians. Disagreements were resolved through panel discussion. We used Poisson models to compare cause-specific mortality rates during the calendar periods 1996-99, 2000-03, 2004-07, 2008-11, 2012-15, and 2016-20, adjusted for time-updated age, CD4 count, and whether the individual was ART-naive at the start of each period. FINDINGS: Among 189 301 people with HIV included in this study, 16 832 (8·9%) deaths were recorded during 1 519 200 person-years of follow-up. 13 180 (78·3%) deaths were classified by cause: the most common causes were AIDS (4203 deaths; 25·0%), non-AIDS non-hepatitis malignancy (2311; 13·7%), and cardiovascular or heart-related (1403; 8·3%) mortality. The proportion of deaths due to AIDS declined from 49% during 1996-99 to 16% during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality per 1000 person-years decreased from 16·8 deaths (95% CI 15·4-18·4) during 1996-99 to 7·9 deaths (7·6-8·2) during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality declined with time: the average adjusted mortality rate ratio per calendar period was 0·85 (95% CI 0·84-0·86). Rates of cause-specific mortality also declined: the most pronounced reduction was for AIDS-related mortality (0·81; 0·79-0·83). There were also reductions in rates of cardiovascular-related (0·83, 0·79-0·87), liver-related (0·88, 0·84-0·93), non-AIDS infection-related (0·91, 0·86-0·96), non-AIDS-non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancy-related (0·94, 0·90-0·97), and suicide or accident-related mortality (0·89, 0·82-0·95). Mortality rates among people who acquired HIV through injecting drug use increased in women (1·07, 1·00-1·14) and decreased slightly in men (0·96, 0·93-0·99). INTERPRETATION: Reductions of most major causes of death, particularly AIDS-related deaths among people with HIV on ART, were not seen for all subgroups. Interventions targeted at high-risk groups, substance use, and comorbidities might further increase life expectancy in people with HIV towards that in the general population. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Incidence of non-AIDS defining comorbidities among young adults with perinatally acquired HIV in North America.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to describe the incidence of diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM), hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) from 2000 to 2019 among North American adults with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) aged 18-30 years. DESIGN: Description of outcomes based on electronic health records for a cohort of 375 young adults with PHIV enrolled in routine HIV care at clinics contributing data to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: We estimated overall, sex, and race-stratified cumulative incidences using Turnbull estimation, and incidence rates using quasi-Poisson regression. T2DM was defined as glycosylated hemoglobin more than 6.5% or based on clinical diagnosis and medication use. Hypercholesterolemia was based on medication use or total cholesterol at least 200 mg/dl. Hypertriglyceridemia was based on medication use or fasting triglyceride at least 150 mg/dl or nonfasting at least 200 mg/dl. Hypertension was based on clinical diagnosis. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rates less than 90 ml/mi|1.73 m 2 for at least 3 months. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence by age 30 and incidence rates from age 18 to 30 (per 100 person-years) were T2DM: 19%, 2.9; hypercholesterolemia: 40%, 4.6; hypertriglyceridemia: 50%, 5.6; hypertension: 22%, 2.0; and CKD: 25%, 3.3. Non-Black women had the highest incidence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia, Black adults had the highest hypertension incidence, and Black men had the highest CKD incidence. CONCLUSION: There was a high incidence of five chronic comorbidities among people with PHIV. Earlier screening at younger ages might be considered for this unique population to strengthen prevention strategies and initiate treatment in a timely way.

THE ASSOCIATION OF ANEMIA WITH SURVIVAL AMONG PEOPLE WITH HIV FOLLOWING ANTIRETROVIRAL INITIATION IN THE NA-ACCORD 2007-2016.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is an independent predictor of mortality, which may be utilized as a signal of deteriorating health. We estimated the association between anemia severity categories and mortality following the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV (PWH) in North America. METHODS: Within the NA-ACCORD, annual median hemoglobin measurements between 01/01/2007-12/31/2016 were categorized using World Health Organization criteria into mild (11.0-12.9g/dL men, 11.0-11.9g/dL women), moderate (8.0-10.9g/dL men/women) and severe (<8.0g/dL men/women) anemia. Discrete time-to-event analyses using complementary log-log link models estimated mortality hazards ratios adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and HIV clinical markers with 95% confidence intervals for the association between anemia and mortality. RESULTS: Among 67,228 PWH contributing a total of 320,261 annual median hemoglobin measurements, 257,293 (80%) demonstrated no anemia, 44,041 (14%) mild, 18,259 (6%) moderate, and 668 (0.2%) severe anemia during follow-up. Mortality risk was 5.6-fold higher among PWH with (vs. without) anemia. The association was greater among males (aHR=5.8 [5.4, 6.2]) versus females (aHR=4.1 [3.2, 5.4]). Mortality risk was 3.8-fold higher among PWH with mild anemia, 13.7-fold higher with moderate anemia, and 34.5-fold higher with severe anemia (vs. no anemia). Median hemoglobin levels significantly declined within 4 years prior to death, with the maximum decrease the year prior to death. Macrocytic anemia was associated with an increased and microcytic anemia a decreased mortality risk (vs. normocytic anemia). CONCLUSIONS: Anemia among PWH who have initiated ART is an important predictive marker for mortality with macrocytic anemia having an increased and microcytic anemia a decreased association with mortality compared with normocytic anemia.

Care interruptions and mortality among adults in Europe and North America.

OBJECTIVE: Interruptions in care of people with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are associated with adverse outcomes, but most studies have relied on composite outcomes. We investigated whether mortality risk following care interruptions differed from mortality risk after first starting ART. DESIGN: Collaboration of 18 European and North American HIV observational cohort studies of adults with HIV starting ART between 2004 and 2019. METHODS: Care interruptions were defined as gaps in contact of ≥365 days, with a subsequent return to care (distinct from loss to follow-up), or ≥270 days and ≥545 days in sensitivity analyses. Follow-up time was allocated to no/preinterruption or postinterruption follow-up groups. We used Cox regression to compare hazards of mortality between care interruption groups, adjusting for time-updated demographic and clinical characteristics and biomarkers upon ART initiation or re-initiation of care. RESULTS: Of 89 197 PWH, 83.4% were male and median age at ART start was 39 years [interquartile range (IQR): 31-48)]. 8654 PWH (9.7%) had ≥1 care interruption; 10 913 episodes of follow-up following a care interruption were included. There were 6104 deaths in 536 334 person-years, a crude mortality rate of 11.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.1-11.7] per 1000 person-years. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio (HR) for the postinterruption group was 1.72 (95% CI: 1.57-1.88) compared with the no/preinterruption group. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses assuming ≥270-day (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.40-1.60) and ≥545-day (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.48-1.88) interruptions. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality was higher among PWH reinitiating care following an interruption, compared with when PWH initially start ART, indicating the importance of uninterrupted care.

Discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Cause-specific Mortality Among Persons With HIV in Europe and North America.

Background: Predicting cause-specific mortality among people with HIV (PWH) could facilitate targeted care to improve survival. We assessed discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 in predicting cause-specific mortality among PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods: Using Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration data for PWH who initiated ART between 2000 and 2018, VACS Index 2.0 scores (higher scores indicate worse prognosis) were calculated around a randomly selected visit date at least 1 year after ART initiation. Missingness in VACS Index 2.0 variables was addressed through multiple imputation. Cox models estimated associations between VACS Index 2.0 and causes of death, with discrimination evaluated using Harrell's C-statistic. Absolute mortality risk was modelled using flexible parametric survival models. Results: Of 59 741 PWH (mean age: 43 years; 80% male), the mean VACS Index 2.0 at baseline was 41 (range: 0-129). For 2425 deaths over 168 162 person-years follow-up (median: 2.6 years/person), AIDS (n = 455) and non-AIDS-defining cancers (n = 452) were the most common causes. Predicted 5-year mortality for PWH with a mean VACS Index 2.0 score of 38 at baseline was 1% and approximately doubled for every 10-unit increase. The 5-year all-cause mortality C-statistic was .83. Discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths resulting from AIDS (0.91), liver-related (0.91), respiratory-related (0.89), non-AIDS infections (0.87), and non-AIDS-defining cancers (0.83), and lowest for suicides/accidental deaths (0.65). Conclusions: For deaths among PWH, discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths with measurable physiological causes and was lowest for suicide/accidental deaths.