Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

The propagule doesn't fall far from the tree, especially after short-interval, high-severity fire.

Subalpine forests that historically burned every 100-300 yr are expected to burn more frequently as climate warms, perhaps before trees reach reproductive maturity or produce a serotinous seedbank. Tree regeneration after short-interval (<30-yr) high-severity fire will increasingly rely on seed dispersal from unburned trees, but how dispersal varies with age and structure of surrounding forest is poorly understood. We studied wind dispersal of three conifers (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa, and Pinus contorta var. latifolia, which can be serotinous and nonserotinous) after a stand-replacing fire that burned young (≤30 yr) and older (>100 yr) P. contorta forest in Grand Teton National Park (Wyoming, USA). We asked how propagule pressure varied with time since last fire, how seed delivery into burned forest varied with age and structure of live forest edges, what variables explained seed delivery into burned forest, and how spatial patterns of delivery across the burned area could vary with alternate patterns of surrounding live forest age. Seeds were collected in traps along 100-m transects (n = 18) extending from live forest edges of varying age (18, 30, and >100 yr) into areas of recent (2-yr) high-severity fire, and along transects in live forests to measure propagule pressure. Propagule pressure was low in 18-yr-old stands (~8 seeds/m2 ) and similarly greater in 30- and 100-yr-old stands (~32 seeds/m2 ). Mean dispersal distance was lowest from 18-yr-old edges and greatest from >100-yr-old edges. Seed delivery into burned forest declined with increasing distance and increased with height of trees at live forest edges, and was consistently higher for P. contorta than for other conifers. Empirical dispersal kernels revealed that seed delivery from 18-yr-old edges was very low (≤2.4 seeds/m2 ) and concentrated within 10 m of the live edge, whereas seed delivery from >100-yr-old edges was >4.9 seeds/m2 out to 80 m. When extrapolated throughout the burned landscape, estimated seed delivery was low (<49,400 seeds/ha) in >70% of areas that burned in short-interval fire (<30 yr). As fire frequency increases, immaturity risk will be compounded in short-interval fires because seed dispersal from surrounding young trees is limited.

Invasive rat control is an efficient, yet insufficient, method for recovery of the critically endangered Hawaiian plant hau kuahiwi (Hibiscadelphus giffardianus).

Biological invasions of rodents and other species have been especially problematic on tropical islands. Invasive Rattus rattus consumption of Hibiscadelphus giffardianus (Malvaceae; common Hawaiian name hau kuahiwi) fruit and seeds has been hypothesized to be the most-limiting factor inhibiting the critically endangered tree, but this has not been experimentally tested, and little is known about other factors affecting seed dispersal, germination, and seedling establishment. Thus, we do not know if rat removal is sufficient to increase hau kuahiwi recruitment. This study aims to evaluate the effect of rat population control on the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit and establish seedlings. We compared hau kuahiwi fruiting and seedling recruitment in a stand treated to reduce rat abundance and a neighbouring control stand. Fruit retention increased following treatment but seedling establishment did not. Although rat control improves the ability of hau kuahiwi to retain fruit, other, presently unknown inhibitors to seed dispersal, germination, and/or seedling development remain. Seed and seedling predation by other species, competition from numerous invasive plant species, unsuitable climate, and/or other factors may be primary inhibitors in the absence of rats, but we emphasize that progressive isolation of these factors at individual hau kuahiwi life stages may be necessary to identify the remaining threats to the conservation of this critically endangered plant.