Decision making framework for application of forest countermeasures in the long term after the Chernobyl accident.

After the ChNPP accident a very large part of the territories covered by natural and artificial forests are contaminated with long-lived radionuclides, especially 137Cs. To protect people against exposure associated with forest contamination in the most affected regions of the NIS countries, countermeasures have been developed and recommended for the forest management. The paper presents a decision making framework to optimise forest countermeasures in the long term after the ChNPP accident. The approach presented is based on the analysis of the main exposure pathways and application of radiological, socio-economical and ecological criteria for the selection of optimal countermeasures strategies. Because of the diversity of these criteria modern decision support technologies based on multi-attributive analysis were applied. The results of the application of this approach are presented in a selected study area (Novozybkov district, Bryansk region, Russian Federation). The results prove and emphasize the need for a flexible technique to provide the optimised forest countermeasures taking into account radioecological, social and economic features of contaminated forests.

Comparative radiation impact on biota and man in the area affected by the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

A methodological approach for a comparative assessment of ionising radiation effects on man and non-human species, based on the use of Radiation Impact Factor (RIF) - ratios of actual exposure doses to biota species and man to critical dose is described. As such doses, radiation safety standards limiting radiation exposure of man and doses at which radiobiological effects in non-human species were not observed after the Chernobyl accident, were employed. For the study area within the 30km ChNPP zone dose burdens to 10 reference biota groups and the population (with and without evacuation) and the corresponding RIFs were calculated. It has been found that in 1986 (early period after the accident) the emergency radiation standards for man do not guarantee adequate protection of the environment, some species of which could be affected more than man. In 1991 RIFs for man were considerably (by factor of 20.0-1.1 x 10(5)) higher compared with those for selected non-human species. Thus, for the long term after the accident radiation safety standards for man are shown to ensure radiation safety for biota as well.

[Prediction of 137Cs behaviour in the soil-plant system in the territory of Semipalatinsk test site].

A mathematical model of 137Cs behaviour in the soil-plant system is presented. The model has been parameterized for the area adjacent to the testing area Ground Zero of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The model describes the main processes responsible for the changes in 137Cs content in the soil solution and, thereby, dynamics of the radionuclide uptake by vegetation. The results are taken from predictive and retrospective calculations that reflect the dynamics of 137Cs distribution by species in soil after nuclear explosions. The importance of factors governing 137Cs accumulation in plants within the STS area is assessed. The analysis of sensitivity of the output model variable to changes in its parameters revealed that the key soil properties significantly influence the results of prediction of 137Cs content in plants.

[Prediction of 137Cs accumulation in animal products in the territory of Semipalatinsk test site].

The paper describes mathematical models for 137Cs behavior in the organism of horses and sheep pasturing on the bording area to the testing area "Ground Zero" of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The models are parameterized on the base of the data from an experiment with the breeds of animals now commonly encountered within the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The predictive calculations with the models devised have shown that 137Cs concentrations in milk of horses and sheep pasturingon the testing area to "Ground Zero" can exceed the adopted standards during a long period of time.

[The simulation of 137Cs distribution in forest ecosystems and prediction of its accumulation by forest products]. / Modelirovanie povedeniia 137Cs v lesnykh ékosistemakh i prognozirovanie ego nakopleniia v lesnoi produktsii.

A mathematical model of 137Cs migration in forest ecosystem is presented, which describes the behaviour of this radionuclide in the forest litter-soil system, trees, understory and forest animals. The model's parameters for different types of forest ecosystems are estimated and model's adequacy is tested through the use of independent experimental data. The sensitivity of the model's output variables is analyzed to variations in the most significant parameters. The differences in the seasonal and mean annual dynamics of 137Cs concentration in muscles of roe deers and mooses are shown to be defined by specific features of the diets of these animals and variations in 137Cs content in the main diet components.

[Development of a strategy for countermeasures application aimed at remediation of consequences of radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems]. / Razrabotka strategii provedeniia zashchitnykh meropriiatii, napravlennykh na ustranenie posledstvii radioaktivnogo zagriazneniia lesnykh ékosistem.

The radiation situation has been assessed in forest ecosystems of the most affected by the Chernobyl accident region of the Russian Federation--Novozybkov district of the Bryansk region. Using a set of migration models and methods for estimating doses of external and internal irradiation of the population, predictive calculations have been made that demonstrated a need to implement countermeasures in forest ecosystems of the region. A strategy of countermeasures application was developed based on a conservative approach, which postulates priority of observance of the sanitary-hygienic standard--permissible exposure level for the population and need for invoking the economic indicators to optimize countermeasure option. The effectiveness of countermeasures has been assessed based on a multicriterium approach using a system of decision making PRIME Decisions. The derived results have been formalized as indices of countermeasures effectiveness for different combinations of criteria.

[A comparative analysis of the impact on biota and man in the 30 km zone of the Chernobyl NPP]. / Sravnitel'naia otsenka radiatsionnogo vozdeistviia na biotu i cheloveka v 30-kilometrovoi zone Chernobol'skoi AES.

A methodological approach is described for a comparative assessment of ionizing radiation effects on man and biota, based on the use of indices of radiation impact--ratios of actual exposure doses to environmental objects (including humans) and critical ones. As such doses, standards limiting radiation exposure and doses at which phenotypical effects were absent after the Chernobyl accident were employed, respectively for man and biota. For the test site chosen within the 30 km ChNPP zone (region of the Borshchovka settlement), dose burdens to reference biota species and the population (with and without evacuation) and the corresponding radiation impact indices were calculated. For the long term period after the accident radiation safety standards for man are shown to ensure radiation safety for biota as well. At the same time in the early period after the accident the emergency regulations do not guarantee adequate protection of nature, some species of which can be subject to irradiation more than man, even if countermeasures like evacuation are not applied. A conclusion has been made on the necessity of a more detailed and comprehensive analysis of situations when the anthropocentric principle "if radiation standards protect man then biota are also adequately protected" is violated.

Analysis of the contribution of forest pathways to the radiation exposure of different population groups in the Bryansk region of Russia.

The experience gained in the aftermath of serious radiation accidents shows that forests are an important source of external and internal exposure of the affected population. This paper presents the results of an assessment of the major radiological consequences for forests of Russia, most heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (ChNPP) accident. Illustrated in the Novozybkovsky district of the Russian Federation, the significance of different forest exposure pathways is estimated and the doses resulting from forest pathways are compared with the doses from agricultural products. It has been found that the contribution of mushrooms and berries to the internal doses of the population, relative to the doses from agricultural products, varied from 10-15% in 1987 to 40-45% in 1996. The results indicate large differences in internal exposure of members of the "critical groups" and "normal population", increasing with time after deposition. Data are presented that give information on the contribution of forests to the collective doses of inhabitants of the area under consideration. It has been shown that for 10 years after the accident (1987-1996), the contribution of forest products to the collective dose of the rural population living in contaminated forests of the Novozybkovsky district, amounts to about 20% (213 person Sv) of the total collective dose of internal and external exposures. However, a potential impact of these products including the dose from exported products is much higher and might reach 659 person Sv. It has been found that in the long-term after the ChNPP accident, serious attention should be given to forest countermeasures, and restoration strategies should be selected on the basis of a combined analysis of the effectiveness of forest and agricultural countermeasures.