PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n = 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n = 1,218) were performed. RESULTS: Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. METHODS: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC. METHODS: The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort. RESULTS: A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. METHODS: We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n = 772) or TDF (n = 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. RESULTS: The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p = 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.038). CONCLUSION: In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. LAY SUMMARY: In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction beyond year 5 of oral therapy in a large cohort of Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop in patients with chronic hepatitis (CHB) even after 5 years of oral therapy and cannot be easily predicted. We assessed predictors of HCC development and the need for HCC surveillance in this setting. METHODS: Of 1,951 adult Caucasians with CHB included in the PAGE-B cohort, 1,427 (73%) had completed >5 years of follow-up under therapy without developing HCC by year 5. Median follow-up was 8.4 years from treatment onset. Points-based risk scores were developed to predict HCC risk after year 5. RESULTS: In years 5-12, HCC was diagnosed in 33/1,427 (2.3%) patients with cumulative incidences of 2.4%, 3.2% and 3.8% at 8, 10 and 12 years, respectively. Older age or age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness (LSM) ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased HCC risk. The HCC incidence was lower in non-cirrhotics than cirrhotics at baseline with year-5 LSM <12; among cirrhotics at baseline, it was lower in those with year-5 LSM <12 than ≥12 kPa. CAGE-B score was based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 and SAGE-B score was based only on age and LSM at year 5 (c-index = 0.809-0.814, 0.805-0.806 after bootstrap validation). Both scores offered 100% negative predictive values for HCC development in their low risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: In Caucasians with CHB, the HCC risk after the first 5 years of antiviral therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and LSM at year 5. CAGE-B and particularly SAGE-B represent simple and reliable risk scores for HCC prediction and surveillance beyond year 5 of therapy. LAY SUMMARY: In Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and liver stiffness at year 5, which can provide simple and reliable risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction and surveillance beyond year 5. In patients with cirrhosis at baseline, liver stiffness <12 kPa at year 5 is associated with lower HCC risk, but surveillance may be still required.

Eight-year survival in chronic hepatitis B patients under long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy is similar to the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The effects of long-term antiviral therapy on survival have not been adequately assessed in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In this 10-centre, ongoing cohort study, we evaluated the probability of survival and factors affecting survival in Caucasian CHB patients who received long-term entecavir/tenofovir therapy. METHODS: We included 1,951 adult Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at baseline, who received entecavir/tenofovir for ≥12 months (median, six years). Kaplan-Meier estimates of cumulative survival over time were obtained. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by comparing death rates with those in the Human Mortality Database. RESULTS: The one-, five-, and eight-year cumulative probabilities were 99.7, 95.9, and 94.1% for overall survival, 99.9, 98.3, and 97.4% for liver-related survival, and 99.9, 97.8, and 95.8% for transplantation-free liver-related survival, respectively. Overall mortality was independently associated with older age and HCC development, liver-related mortality was associated with HCC development only, and transplantation-free liver-related mortality was independently associated with HCC development and lower platelet levels at baseline. Baseline cirrhosis was not independently associated with any type of mortality. Compared with the general population, in all CHB patients mortality was not significantly different (SMR 0.82), whereas it was lower in patients without HCC regardless of baseline cirrhosis (SMR 0.58) and was higher in patients who developed HCC (SMR 3.09). CONCLUSION: Caucasian patients with CHB and compensated liver disease who receive long-term entecavir/tenofovir therapy have excellent overall and liver-related eight-year survival, which is similar to that of the general population. HCC is the main factor affecting their overall mortality, and is the only factor affecting their liver-related mortality. LAY SUMMARY: Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B with or without compensated cirrhosis who receive long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy have excellent overall eight-year survival, which is similar to that of the general population. Hepatocellular carcinoma is the main factor affecting their overall mortality, and is the only factor affecting liver-related mortality in this setting.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma decreases after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir in Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B.

Whether there is a change of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in chronic hepatitis B patients under long-term therapy with potent nucleos(t)ide analogues is currently unclear. We therefore assessed the HCC incidence beyond year 5 of entecavir/tenofovir (ETV/TDF) therapy and tried to determine possible factors associated with late HCC occurrence. This European, 10-center, cohort study included 1,951 adult Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients without HCC at baseline who received ETV/TDF for ≥1 year. Of them, 1,205 (62%) patients without HCC within the first 5 years of therapy have been followed for 5-10 (median, 6.8) years. HCCs have been diagnosed in 101/1,951 (5.2%) patients within the first 5 years and 17/1,205 (1.4%) patients within 5-10 years. The yearly HCC incidence rate was 1.22% within and 0.73% after the first 5 years (P = 0.050). The yearly HCC incidence rate did not differ within and after the first 5 years in patients without cirrhosis (0.49% versus 0.47%, P = 0.931), but it significantly declined in patients with cirrhosis (3.22% versus 1.57%, P = 0.039). All HCCs beyond year 5 developed in patients older than 50 years at ETV/TDF onset. Older age, lower platelets at baseline and year 5, and liver stiffness ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with more frequent HCC development beyond year 5 in multivariable analysis. No patient with low Platelets, Age, Gender-Hepatitis B score at baseline or year 5 developed HCC. CONCLUSION: The HCC risk decreases beyond year 5 of ETV/TDF therapy in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients, particularly in those with compensated cirrhosis; older age (especially ≥50 years), lower platelets, and liver stiffness ≥12 kPa at year 5 represent the main risk factors for late HCC development. (Hepatology 2017;66:1444-1453).

Prognostic Models for Survival in Patients with Stable Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Two models are mostly used to predict survival in cirrhosis: the Child-Pugh score (CP score) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD score). AIMS: The aim of this study is to evaluate the CP score and the MELD score for short- and long-term prognosis in cirrhosis, as well as CP-creatinine score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score. METHODS: One thousand and forty-seven patients from five referral centers were included: men/women: 620/427, median age: 58 years (IQR 48-66), median follow-up: 33 months (IQR 12-74), CP (A/B/C): 493/357/147, CP score: 7 (IQR 5-9), MELD score: 12 (IQR 9-16). The performance of each score was evaluated by the Cox hazard model in terms of their: discrimination ability (C-index and Somer's D) and calibration (3, 12 months). Internal validation was done with bootstrapping (100 samples). RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-two patients (33.6%) died. All scores were significantly associated with overall mortality, when assessed by univariate Cox analysis. CP-creatinine score performed significantly better than all other scores [bootstrap C-index 0.672, 95% CI 0.642-0.703, bootstrap Somer's D 0.344 (0.285-0.401)], apart from CP score, which showed similar performance. Inclusion in the multivariable Cox model of age together with CP-creatinine score improved the discriminative ability of the model [bootstrap C-index (95% CI) 0.700 (0.661-0.740)]. In terms of calibration, CP-creatinine score was the best for both 3- and 12-month survival in the total population. CONCLUSIONS: CP score and CP-creatinine score have better prognostic value compared to MELD score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with stable cirrhosis.

PAGE-B predicts the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B on 5-year antiviral therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developed in Asians offer poor-moderate predictability in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This nine center cohort study aimed to develop and validate an accurate HCC risk score in Caucasian CHB patients treated with the current oral antivirals, entecavir/tenofovir. METHODS: We included 1815 adult Caucasians with CHB and no HCC at baseline who received entecavir/tenofovir for ⩾12 months. Using data from eight centers (derivation dataset, n=1325), a HCC risk score was developed based on multivariable Cox models and points system for simplification. Harrell's c-index was used as discrimination, bootstrap for internal validation and the data from the 9(th) and largest center (validation dataset, n=490) for external validation. RESULTS: The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 5.7% and 8.4% in the derivation and validation dataset, respectively. In the derivation dataset, age, gender, platelets and cirrhosis were independently associated with HCC. The PAGE-B score was developed based on age, gender and platelets (c-index=0.82, 0.81 after bootstrap validation). The addition of cirrhosis did not substantially improve the discrimination (c-index=0.84). The predictability of PAGE-B score was similar (c-index=0.82) in the validation dataset. Patients with PAGE-B ⩽9, 10-17, ⩾18 had 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates of 0%, 3%, 17% in the derivation and 0%, 4%, 16% in the validation dataset. CONCLUSION: PAGE-B, which is based only on baseline patients' age, gender and platelets, represents a simple and reliable score for prediction of the 5-year HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir/tenofovir.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TDF), is unclear. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of HCC and the accuracy of existing HCC risk scores in Caucasian CHB patients receiving ETV/TDF. METHODS: This large, multicentre, retrospective cohort study included 1666 adult Caucasian CHB patients under ETV/TDF for 39 months. CHB without cirrhosis, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis were present in 67%, 39%, and 3% of patients, respectively. The predictability of baseline parameters and three risk scores (GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, and REACH-B), developed in Asian patients, was assessed. RESULTS: The cumulative probability of HCC was 1.3%, 3.4%, and 8.7% at year-1, year-3, and year-5 after ETV/TDF onset. Older age and lower platelets were strong independent HCC predictors in the total population and in the subgroups of cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, while liver disease severity was an independent HCC predictor in the total population and in the cirrhotics. GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, and REACH-B risk scores were associated with HCC development only in the univariable but not in the multivariable analyses and offered poor to modest predictability. CONCLUSIONS: HCC can still develop in Caucasian CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF. Besides the well-known predictors of HCC, such as older age, male gender and more advanced liver disease, lower platelets represent an independent factor of higher HCC risk. The applicability and predictability of HCC risk scores developed in Asian patients are poor or modest in Caucasian CHB patients, for whom different risk scores are required.

Anti-SLA/LP alone or in combination with anti-Ro52 and fine specificity of anti-Ro52 antibodies in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antibodies (Abs) to soluble liver antigen/liver pancreas (anti-SLA/LP) are considered markers of worse prognosis and outcome in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) although this assumption has recently been attributed to their frequent co-expression with Abs against Ro52 (anti-Ro52). To assess the clinical significance of anti-SLA/LP Abs alone or in combination with anti-Ro52 in AIH patients and determine the immunodominant Ro52 epitopes according to the anti-SLA/LP status. METHODS: Twenty-three anti-SLA/LP-positive and 106 anti-SLA/LP-negative AIH patients were included. Anti-SLA/LP were determined by ELISA using recombinant antigen, and confirmed by immunoblot using cytosolic rat liver fraction or HuH-7 extract. Anti-Ro52 Abs were determined by ELISA using recombinant antigen. Epitope mapping was assessed by ELISA using overlapping peptides covering the whole Ro52 protein in 26 AIH patients and 12 patients with Sjögren's syndrome. RESULTS: Anti-SLA/LP positivity was not associated with the clinical, laboratory or histological characteristics of AIH patients. Treatment response, corticosteroid withdrawal, relapse after stopping treatment and outcome, were not associated with the presence of anti-SLA/LP, anti-Ro52 or double reactivity. Moreover, Ro52 epitope mapping revealed new epitopes unique for AIH and independent from anti-SLA/LP positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Neither anti-SLA/LP nor anti-Ro52 Abs or their combination could specify a distinct group of AIH patients in terms of clinical characteristics, treatment response and outcome. Further studies are needed to clarify whether the newly discovered immunodominant epitopes of Ro52 antigen which were associated specifically with AIH have any clinical or pathogenetic significance in AIH.

Changes of HBsAg and interferon-inducible protein 10 serum levels in naive HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients under 4-year entecavir therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Serum HBsAg levels might represent an important predictor of sustained off-treatment response in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We evaluated the changes of HBsAg and interferon-inducible protein 10 (IP10) serum levels in HBeAg-negative CHB patients treated with entecavir. METHODS: 114 patients received entecavir for a median of 4.3 years. HBsAg levels were determined at baseline, 6 and 12 months and every year thereafter until year-4. IP10 levels were measured at baseline and annually until year-4 in 76 patients. RESULTS: Virological remission rates were high (year-1: 94%, after year-2: 97-98%). Compared to baseline, HBsAg levels decreased by a median of 0.03, 0.13, 0.17, 0.22, and 0.32 log10 IU/ml at 6 months and 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, respectively (p≤0.001 for all comparisons). The proportions of patients with HBsAg decline of ≥0.5 or ≥1 log10 IU/ml were 9% or 6% at year-1 and 21% or 10% at the last visit. Median IP10 levels (pg/ml) did not change from baseline to year-1 or -2 (245 vs. 229 or 251), but increased at year-3 and -4 (275 and 323, p<0.030). HBsAg drop ≥0.5 log10 was associated with baseline IP10 or IP10 >350 pg/ml (p≤0.002). HBsAg loss occurred in 4/114 (3.5%) patients or in 1/2, 3/21, and 0/91 patients with baseline HBsAg <100, 100-1000 and >1000 IU/ml, respectively (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In HBeAg-negative CHB patients, 4-year entecavir therapy decreases serum HBsAg levels, but the rate of decline is rather slow. Serum IP10 levels represent a promising predictor of HBsAg decline in this setting.

Glomerular filtration rate is an independent factor of mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

AIM: Although serum creatinine is included in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, it is an inaccurate marker of renal function, namely, of glomerular filtration rate ("true" GFR) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Our aim was to investigate the impact of MELD score and "true" GFR as determinants of survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We included all consecutive patients with decompensated cirrhosis who were admitted to our department. Renal function was assessed by creatinine- and cystatin-based estimated GFR and "true" GFR using (51) Cr-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid. The independent factors associated with survival were evaluated. The discriminative ability of the prognostic scores (MELD and modifications of MELD score) were evaluated by using the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC). RESULTS: One hundred and ten consecutive patients (77 men, aged 56 ± 12 years); at the end of follow up (8 months; range, 6-18), 92 patients (84%) were alive and 18 (16%) had died. In multivariate analysis, serum bilirubin (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.26; P = 0.020) and "true" GFR (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.98; P = 0.003) were the only independent factors significantly associated with the outcome. The derived new prognostic model had high discriminative ability (AUC, 0.90), which was confirmed in the validation sample of 77 patients. CONCLUSION: In our cohort of patients with decompensated cirrhosis, "true" GFR and bilirubin were the independent factors of the outcome.

Association between ratio of sodium to potassium in random urine samples and renal dysfunction and mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are used to assess renal function and are an independent prognostic factor for patients with decompensated cirrhosis, but are impractical for routine use. We investigated whether the ratio of sodium to potassium in randomly collected urine samples (UNa/K) is associated with mortality and renal dysfunction in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites. METHODS: We assessed data from 126 consecutive patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites (93 men; age, 56 ± 12 y; 55% with viral-related disease) admitted to the Hippokration General Hospital of Thessaloniki, Greece, from September 2010 through January 2012. At admission, clinical and laboratory variables were recorded, including GFR, measured with (51)Cr-EDTA. Urine samples were collected, and UNa/K was determined. We evaluated the association between UNa/K and patient mortality using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: Forty-one patients (32%; group 1) had a GFR less than 60 mL/min, and 85 patients (68%; group 2) had a GFR of 60 mL/min or greater. In the multivariable analysis, 3 variables were associated independently with the presence of severe renal dysfunction (GFR, <60 mL/min): age (odds ratio [OR], 0.93; P = .008), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.05; P = .022), and UNa/K (OR, 1.5; P = .025). A UNa/K less than 1.0 had high sensitivity and a negative predictive value for the presence of GFR less than 60 mL/min (79% and 87%, respectively) and mortality (68% and 91%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites, a ratio of sodium to potassium of less than 1 in randomly collected urine samples was associated with renal dysfunction and short-term mortality. These findings require confirmation in additional studies.

HERACLIS-TAF: a multi-centre prospective cohort study on 2-year safety and efficacy of tenofovir alafenamide in patients with chronic hepatitis B with renal and/or bone disorders or risks.

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) has exhibited a favourable safety profile on estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) and bone mineral density (BMD), but has not been extensively studied in patients with renal impairment and/or BMD disorders. AIMS: To assess predictors of eGFR changes and other safety and efficacy outcomes during 24-month TAF therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B with renal and/or BMD disorders/risks. METHODS: Adult patients who started TAF at 13 clinics throughout Greece were prospectively included. Main exclusion criteria were hepatitis D, active malignancy and bisphosphonates recent use. MDRD formula was used for eGFR estimation. RESULTS: TAF was initiated in 176 patients (91% switched from another agent). At 12 and 24 months, HBV DNA was undetectable in 97% and 100%, and ALT was normal in 96% and 95% of patients. Median ALT decreased from baseline to month 12/24 (p < 0.001). Mean eGFR decreased from previous treatment initiation to baseline (p < 0.001), increased at 12 months and remained stable at 24 months (p ≤ 0.001). An increase in eGFR of >3 ml/min at 12 month was observed in 50% of patients and was associated mainly with baseline eGFR 30-60 ml/min. In patients with baseline phosphate <2.5 mg/dl, mean serum phosphate increased at month-12/24 (p < 0.001). Median BMD did not change significantly from baseline to 12 months but improved at 24 months (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In mostly switched patients with renal and/or BMD disorders/risks, eGFR improved after 12-24 months of TAF treatment, especially in patients with baseline eGFR 30-60 ml/min. TAF may also improve low serum phosphate, BMD and ALT, whereas it maintains or induces virological suppression.

Hepatitis B immunoglobulin and/or nucleos(t)ide analogues for prophylaxis against hepatitis b virus recurrence after liver transplantation: a systematic review.

A combination of hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) and nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) is currently recommended as prophylaxis against the recurrence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) after liver transplantation (LT), but the optimal protocol is a matter of controversy. The aim of this study was the identification of factors associated with post-LT HBV recurrence in patients receiving HBIG and NUCs. We searched MEDLINE and PubMed for studies in English about the effectiveness of HBIG and NUCs [lamivudine (LAM) and/or adefovir dipivoxil (ADV)] against post-LT HBV recurrence (January 1998 to June 2010). Forty-six studies, which included 2162 HBV LT recipients, met the selection criteria. Patients receiving HBIG and LAM experienced HBV recurrence more frequently than patients receiving HBIG and ADV with or without LAM [6.1% (115/1889) versus 2.0% (3/152), P = 0.024], although they also were more frequently treated with indefinite HBIG prophylaxis (90% versus 57%, P < 0.001). For patients receiving HBIG and LAM, a lower frequency of HBV recurrence was associated with a high HBIG dosage (≥10,000 IU/day) versus a low HBIG dosage (<10,000 IU/day) during the first week after LT [3.2% (14/440) versus 6.5% (80/1233), P = 0.016], but the HBIG protocol had no impact on HBV recurrence in patients receiving HBIG and ADV. In conclusion, in comparison with the combination of HBIG and LAM, the combination of HBIG and ADV is associated with a lower rate of HBV recurrence after LT. Patients receiving HBIG and LAM should be given a high dosage of HBIG during the first week after LT, but a lower dosage can be used safely in patients receiving HBIG and ADV. Further studies with newer and more potent anti-HBV agents are definitely required.

Monitoring and comorbidities in patients with chronic hepatitis B currently treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs.

BACKGROUND: Long-term monotherapy with nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) represents the treatment option for the majority of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), an aging population with a greater likelihood of comorbidities. We assessed the prevalence of concurrent non-hepatic diseases and the safety monitoring in a large cohort of CHB patients receiving NAs and their potential impact on disease outcomes. METHODS: We included 500 consecutive CHB patients from 5 major tertiary Greek centers, under long-term therapy with an NA. Epidemiological/clinical characteristics and data on concomitant disease, drug use and investigations ordered were collected. RESULTS: The mean age was 58 years and 66% were male. Most patients were receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF, 60%) or entecavir (ETV, 37%) monotherapy. Decompensated cirrhosis at baseline was present in 10%, while hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) under therapy developed in 21 patients. The median duration of total NA therapy was 56 and of latest therapy 42 months. The most common (prevalence >10%) comorbidities were hypertension (28%), non-HCC cancer(s) (12%), and diabetes (11%). Patients with a longer duration of latest therapy (≥4 vs. <4 years) were older (mean age: 58 vs. 56 years, P=0.004), had more frequent history of prior use of NA(s) (53% vs. 35%, P<0.001), and less frequent liver decompensation (5% vs. 13%, P=0.008) and non-HCC cancers (8% vs. 15%, P=0.020). HCC developed more frequently in patients with than in those without diabetes (11% vs. 3%, P=0.022). CONCLUSION: Greek CHB patients currently treated with NAs, almost exclusively ETV or TDF, are often older than 60 years, have several comorbidities, and thus require careful management.

Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC. METHODS: We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively. RESULTS: HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78-0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3-100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%. CONCLUSIONS: In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease. LAY SUMMARY: Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

Noninvasive tests for evaluation of fibrosis in HCV recurrence after liver transplantation: a systematic review.

Noninvasive tests (NIT) for evaluation of hepatic fibrosis have not been evaluated extensively in liver transplantation. We systematically reviewed the literature regarding NIT after liver transplantation. We identified 14 studies evaluating NIT based on serum markers and/or liver imaging techniques: 10 studies assessed NIT in recipients with recurrent HCV infection for fibrosis and four studies evaluated predictors of progression of fibrosis in recurrent HCV. Transient Elastography (TE) had good discrimination for significant fibrosis (median AUROC: 0.88). Among the serum NIT, APRI had good performance (median AUROC: 0.75). TE performed better than serum (direct and indirect) NIT for significant fibrosis with median AUROC 0.88 (vs. 0.66, P < 0.001), median sensitivity 0.86 (vs. 0.56, P = 0.002), median NPV 0.90 (vs. 0.74, P = 0.05) and median PPV 0.80 (vs. 0.63, P = 0.02). TE compared to indirect serum NIT, had better performance, but was not superior to APRI score. Finally, direct, compared to indirect NIT, were not significantly different except for specificity: median: 0.83 vs. 0.69, respectively, P = 0.04. In conclusion, NIT could become an important tool in clinical management of liver transplant recipients, but whether they can improve clinical practice needs further evidence. Their optimal combination with liver biopsy and assessment of collagen content requires investigation.

Persistence and adherence to nucleos(t)ide analogues in chronic hepatitis B: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence and persistence to long-term therapy with nucleos(t)ides analogues are crucial to the outcome of treatment in chronic hepatitis B. Our aim was to determine the persistence and adherence rates to nucleos(t)ides analogues in chronic hepatitis B patients under maintenance therapy and to identify relative to prediction of adherence factors. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed electronic prescription data of patients (2011-2016; n = 400) with chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleos(t)ides analogues at 4 tertiary liver centers in Greece. RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-six of 400 patients were under or initiated treatment in 2011-2012 (existing patients), while the remainder initiated or switched medication from January 2013 and onward (new patients). The median adherence rate was 99%, with 89.7% achieving adherence >80% during a mean follow-up of 28 ± 14 months. The overall 12-month persistence rate was 57%, with no difference between patients receiving tenofovir, entecavir or double therapy (57.8%, 52.8% and 68.4%, respectively, P = 0.399). The decline in persistence was more pronounced during the first 3 months of follow-up and in existing patients (P = 0.057). Overall, 80% and 55.1% of nonpersistent patients succeeded adherence to nucleos(t)ides analogues >80% and >90%, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that existing (vs. new) patients were less likely to have >80% adherence (odds ratio: 0.324, P = 0.44) and persistence (odds ratio: 0.562, P = 0.057) to nucleos(t)ides analogues therapy. CONCLUSION: In this real-world cohort of chronic hepatitis B patients, high adherence to nucleos(t)ides analogues was coupled with suboptimal persistence with prescribing the medication. Our data indicate that persistence and adherence are distinct measures that should be approached separately in educational programs targeting to improve medication-taking behavior in chronic hepatitis B.