The antigenic anatomy of SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain.

Antibodies are crucial to immune protection against SARS-CoV-2, with some in emergency use as therapeutics. Here, we identify 377 human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) recognizing the virus spike and focus mainly on 80 that bind the receptor binding domain (RBD). We devise a competition data-driven method to map RBD binding sites. We find that although antibody binding sites are widely dispersed, neutralizing antibody binding is focused, with nearly all highly inhibitory mAbs (IC50 < 0.1 µg/mL) blocking receptor interaction, except for one that binds a unique epitope in the N-terminal domain. Many of these neutralizing mAbs use public V-genes and are close to germline. We dissect the structural basis of recognition for this large panel of antibodies through X-ray crystallography and cryoelectron microscopy of 19 Fab-antigen structures. We find novel binding modes for some potently inhibitory antibodies and demonstrate that strongly neutralizing mAbs protect, prophylactically or therapeutically, in animal models.

EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks.

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.

Evolution of pathogen virulence: Studying the complex interplay of pathogen interactions, virulence and transmission helps us understand how they evolve and spread.

Navigating the intricate interplay of competitive and co-operative interactions and the complex relationship between virulence and transmission pose challenges for our understanding of how pathogens evolve and spread.

Darwin review: the evolution of virulence in human pathogens.

By definition, all pathogens cause some level of harm to their hosts. If this harm occurs while the pathogen is transmitting, it can negatively affect the pathogen's fitness by shortening the duration over which transmission can occur. However, many of the factors that increase virulence (i.e. harm to host) also promote transmission, driving the pathogen population towards an optimal state of intermediate virulence. A wider spectrum of virulence may be maintained among pathogen populations which are structured into multiple discrete strains though direct resource and immune-mediated competition. These various evolutionary outcomes, and the effects of medical and public health interventions, are best understood within a framework that recognizes the complex relationship between transmission and virulence in the context of the antigenic diversity of the pathogen population.

Malaria hospitalisation in East Africa: age, phenotype and transmission intensity.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity. METHODS: Clinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models. RESULTS: 52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. RESULTS: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Convalescent plasma therapy for the treatment of patients with COVID-19: Assessment of methods available for antibody detection and their correlation with neutralising antibody levels.

INTRODUCTION: The lack of approved specific therapeutic agents to treat coronavirus disease (COVID-19) associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has led to the rapid implementation of convalescent plasma therapy (CPT) trials in many countries, including the United Kingdom. Effective CPT is likely to require high titres of neutralising antibody (nAb) in convalescent donations. Understanding the relationship between functional neutralising antibodies and antibody levels to specific SARS-CoV-2 proteins in scalable assays will be crucial for the success of a large-scale collection. We assessed whether neutralising antibody titres correlated with reactivity in a range of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) targeting the spike (S) protein, the main target for human immune response. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from 52 individuals with a previous laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These were assayed for SARS-CoV-2 nAbs by microneutralisation and pseudo-type assays and for antibodies by four different ELISAs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to further identify sensitivity and specificity of selected assays to identify samples containing high nAb levels. RESULTS: All samples contained SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, whereas neutralising antibody titres of greater than 1:20 were detected in 43 samples (83% of those tested) and >1:100 in 22 samples (42%). The best correlations were observed with EUROimmun immunoglobulin G (IgG) reactivity (Spearman Rho correlation coefficient 0.88; p < 0.001). Based on ROC analysis, EUROimmun would detect 60% of samples with titres of >1:100 with 100% specificity using a reactivity index of 9.1 (13/22). DISCUSSION: Robust associations between nAb titres and reactivity in several ELISA-based antibody tests demonstrate their possible utility for scaled-up production of convalescent plasma containing potentially therapeutic levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 nAbs.

Vaccination can drive an increase in frequencies of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

The bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major public health concern, being responsible for more than 1.5 million deaths annually through pneumonia, meningitis, and septicemia. Available vaccines target only a subset of serotypes, so vaccination is often accompanied by a rise in the frequency of nonvaccine serotypes. Epidemiological studies suggest that such a change in serotype frequencies is often coupled with an increase of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes. Building on previous multilocus models for bacterial pathogen population structure, we have developed a theoretical framework incorporating variation of serotype and antibiotic resistance to examine how their associations may be affected by vaccination. Using this framework, we find that vaccination can result in a rapid increase in the frequency of preexisting resistant variants of nonvaccine serotypes due to the removal of competition from vaccine serotypes.

Hepatitis B virus seroepidemiology data for Africa: Modelling intervention strategies based on a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: International Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection set ambitious targets for 2030. In African populations, infant immunisation has been fundamental to reducing incident infections in children, but overall population prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection remains high. In high-prevalence populations, adult catch-up vaccination has sometimes been deployed, but an alternative Test and Treat (T&T) approach could be used as an intervention to interrupt transmission. Universal T&T has not been previously evaluated as a population intervention for HBV infection, despite high-profile data supporting its success with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We set out to investigate the relationship between prevalence of HBV infection and exposure in Africa, undertaking a systematic literature review in November 2019. We identified published seroepidemiology data representing the period 1995-2019 from PubMed and Web of Science, including studies of adults that reported prevalence of both hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg; prevalence of HBV infection) and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc; prevalence of HBV exposure). We identified 96 studies representing 39 African countries, with a median cohort size of 370 participants and a median participant age of 34 years. Using weighted linear regression analysis, we found a strong relationship between the prevalence of infection (HBsAg) and exposure (anti-HBc) (R2 = 0.45, p < 0.001). Region-specific differences were present, with estimated CHB prevalence in Northern Africa typically 30% to 40% lower (p = 0.007) than in Southern Africa for statistically similar exposure rates, demonstrating the need for intervention strategies to be tailored to individual settings. We applied a previously published mathematical model to investigate the effect of interventions in a high-prevalence setting. The most marked and sustained impact was projected with a T&T strategy, with a predicted reduction of 33% prevalence by 20 years (95% CI 30%-37%) and 62% at 50 years (95% CI 57%-68%), followed by routine neonatal vaccination and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT; at 100% coverage). In contrast, the impact of catch-up vaccination in adults had a negligible and transient effect on population prevalence. The study is constrained by gaps in the published data, such that we could not model the impact of antiviral therapy based on stratification by specific clinical criteria and our model framework does not include explicit age-specific or risk-group assumptions regarding force of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The unique data set collected in this study highlights how regional epidemiology data for HBV can provide insights into patterns of transmission, and it provides an evidence base for future quantitative research into the most effective local interventions. In combination with robust neonatal immunisation programmes, ongoing PMTCT efforts, and the vaccination of high-risk groups, diagnosing and treating HBV infection is likely to be of most impact in driving advances towards elimination targets at a population level.

Detection of neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 to determine population exposure in Scottish blood donors between March and May 2020.

BackgroundThe progression and geographical distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere is unknown because typically only symptomatic individuals are diagnosed. We performed a serological study of blood donors in Scotland in the spring of 2020 to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 as a marker of past infection and epidemic progression.AimOur objective was to determine if sera from blood bank donors can be used to track the emergence and progression of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.MethodsA pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay was used to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The study comprised samples from 3,500 blood donors collected in Scotland between 17 March and 18 May 2020. Controls were collected from 100 donors in Scotland during 2019.ResultsAll samples collected on 17 March 2020 (n = 500) were negative in the pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay. Neutralising antibodies were detected in six of 500 donors from 23 to 26 March. The number of samples containing neutralising antibodies did not significantly rise after 5-6 April until the end of the study on 18 May. We found that infections were concentrated in certain postcodes, indicating that outbreaks of infection were extremely localised. In contrast, other areas remained comparatively untouched by the epidemic.ConclusionAlthough blood donors are not representative of the overall population, we demonstrated that serosurveys of blood banks can serve as a useful tool for tracking the emergence and progression of an epidemic such as the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence, titres and neutralising activity in an antenatal cohort, United Kingdom, 14 April to 15 June 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 IgG screening of 1,000 antenatal serum samples in the Oxford area, United Kingdom, between 14 April and 15 June 2020, yielded a 5.3% seroprevalence, mirroring contemporaneous regional data. Among the 53 positive samples, 39 showed in vitro neutralisation activity, correlating with IgG titre (Pearson's correlation p<0.0001). While SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in pregnancy cohorts could potentially inform population surveillance, clinical correlates of infection and immunity in pregnancy, and antenatal epidemiology evolution over time need further study.

HBV vaccination and PMTCT as elimination tools in the presence of HIV: insights from a clinical cohort and dynamic model.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goals set a challenge for the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as a public health concern by the year 2030. Deployment of a robust prophylactic vaccine and enhanced interventions for prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) are cornerstones of elimination strategy. However, in light of the estimated global burden of 290 million cases, enhanced efforts are required to underpin optimisation of public health strategy. Robust analysis of population epidemiology is particularly crucial for populations in Africa made vulnerable by HIV co-infection, poverty, stigma and poor access to prevention, diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: We here set out to evaluate the current and future role of HBV vaccination and PMTCT as tools for elimination. We first investigated the current impact of paediatric vaccination in a cohort of children with and without HIV infection in Kimberley, South Africa. Second, we used these data to inform a new parsimonious model to simulate the ongoing impact of preventive interventions. By applying these two approaches in parallel, we are able to determine both the current impact of interventions, and the future projected outcome of ongoing preventive strategies over time. RESULTS: Existing efforts have been successful in reducing paediatric prevalence of HBV infection in this setting to < 1%, demonstrating the success of the existing vaccine campaign. Our model predicts that, if consistently deployed, combination efforts of vaccination and PMTCT can significantly reduce population prevalence (HBsAg) by 2030, such that a major public health impact is possible even without achieving elimination. However, the prevalence of HBV e-antigen (HBeAg)-positive carriers will decline more slowly, representing a persistent population reservoir. We show that HIV co-infection significantly reduces titres of vaccine-mediated antibody, but has a relatively minor role in influencing the projected time to elimination. Our model can also be applied to other settings in order to predict impact and time to elimination based on specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Through extensive deployment of preventive strategies for HBV, significant positive public health impact is possible, although time to HBV elimination as a public health concern is likely to be substantially longer than that proposed by current goals.

Detecting signatures of past pathogen selection on human HLA loci: are there needles in the haystack?

Human leucocyte antigens (HLAs) are responsible for the display of peptide fragments for recognition by T-cell receptors. The gene family encoding them is thus integral to human adaptive immunity, and likely to be under strong pathogen selection. Despite this, it has proved difficult to demonstrate specific examples of pathogen-HLA coevolution. Selection from multiple pathogens simultaneously could explain why the evolutionary signatures of particular pathogens on HLAs have proved elusive. Here, we present an individual-based model of HLA evolution in the presence of two mortality-causing pathogens. We demonstrate that it is likely that individual pathogen species causing high mortality have left recognizable signatures on the HLA genomic region, despite more than one pathogen being present. Such signatures are likely to exist at the whole-population level, and involve haplotypic combinations of HLA genes rather than single loci.

Vaccination Drives Changes in Metabolic and Virulence Profiles of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

The bacterial pathogen, Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus), is a leading cause of life-threatening illness and death worldwide. Available conjugate vaccines target only a small subset (up to 13) of >90 known capsular serotypes of S. pneumoniae and, since their introduction, increases in non-vaccine serotypes have been recorded in several countries: a phenomenon termed Vaccine Induced Serotype Replacement (VISR). Here, using a combination of mathematical modelling and whole genome analysis, we show that targeting particular serotypes through vaccination can also cause their metabolic and virulence-associated components to transfer through recombination to non-vaccine serotypes: a phenomenon we term Vaccine-Induced Metabolic Shift (VIMS). Our results provide a novel explanation for changes observed in the population structure of the pneumococcus following vaccination, and have important implications for strain-targeted vaccination in a range of infectious disease systems.

Contact between bird species of different lifespans can promote the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza strains.

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) cause considerable economic losses to the poultry industry and also pose a threat to human life. The possibility that one of these strains will evolve to become transmissible between humans, sparking a major influenza pandemic, is a matter of great concern. Most studies so far have focused on assessing these odds from the perspective of the intrinsic mutability of AIV rather than the ecological constraints to invasion faced by the virus population. Here we present an alternative multihost model for the evolution of AIV in which the mode and tempo of mutation play a limited role, with the emergence of strains being determined instead principally by the prevailing profile of population-level immunity. We show that (i) many of the observed differences in influenza virus dynamics among species can be captured by our model by simply varying host lifespan and (ii) increased contact between species of different lifespans can promote the emergence of potentially more virulent strains that were hitherto suppressed in one of the species.

Reproduction, infection and killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptor haplotype evolution.

Killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) are encoded by one of the most polymorphic families in the human genome. KIRs are expressed on natural killer (NK) cells, which have dual roles: (1) in fighting infection and (2) in reproduction, regulating hemochorial placentation. Uniquely among primates, human KIR genes are arranged into two haplotypic combinations: KIR A and KIR B. It has been proposed that KIR A is specialized to fight infection, whilst KIR B evolved to help ensure successful reproduction. Here we demonstrate that a combination of infectious disease selection and reproductive selection can drive the evolution of KIR B-like haplotypes from a KIR A-like founder haplotype. Continued selection to survive and to reproduce maintains a balance between KIR A and KIR B.

Larger mammalian body size leads to lower retroviral activity.

Retroviruses have been infecting mammals for at least 100 million years, leaving descendants in host genomes known as endogenous retroviruses (ERVs). The abundance of ERVs is partly determined by their mode of replication, but it has also been suggested that host life history traits could enhance or suppress their activity. We show that larger bodied species have lower levels of ERV activity by reconstructing the rate of ERV integration across 38 mammalian species. Body size explains 37% of the variance in ERV integration rate over the last 10 million years, controlling for the effect of confounding due to other life history traits. Furthermore, 68% of the variance in the mean age of ERVs per genome can also be explained by body size. These results indicate that body size limits the number of recently replicating ERVs due to their detrimental effects on their host. To comprehend the possible mechanistic links between body size and ERV integration we built a mathematical model, which shows that ERV abundance is favored by lower body size and higher horizontal transmission rates. We argue that because retroviral integration is tumorigenic, the negative correlation between body size and ERV numbers results from the necessity to reduce the risk of cancer, under the assumption that this risk scales positively with body size. Our model also fits the empirical observation that the lifetime risk of cancer is relatively invariant among mammals regardless of their body size, known as Peto's paradox, and indicates that larger bodied mammals may have evolved mechanisms to limit ERV activity.

Observed and expected frequencies of structural hemoglobin variants in newborn screening surveys in Africa and the Middle East: deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

PURPOSE: Our objective was to compare observed and expected genotype proportions from newborn screening surveys of structural hemoglobin variants. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of newborn screening surveys of hemoglobins S and C in Africa and the Middle East. We compared observed frequencies to those expected assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). Significant deviations were identified by an exact test. The fixation index FIS was calculated to assess excess homozygosity. We compared newborn estimates corrected and uncorrected for HWE deviations using demographic data. RESULTS: Sixty samples reported genotype counts for hemoglobin variants in Africa and the Middle East. Observed and expected counts matched in 27%. The observed number of sickle cell anemia (SCA) individuals was higher than expected in 42 samples, reaching significance (P < 0.05) in 24. High FIS values were common across the study regions. The estimated total number of newborns with SCA, corrected based on FIS, was 33,261 annual births instead of 24,958 for the 38 samples across sub-Saharan Africa and 1,109 annual births instead of 578 for 12 samples from the Middle East. CONCLUSION: Differences between observed and expected genotype frequencies are common in surveys of hemoglobin variants in the study regions. Further research is required to identify and quantify factors responsible for such deviations. Estimates based on HWE might substantially underestimate the annual number of SCA-affected newborns (up to one-third in sub-Saharan Africa and one-half in the Middle East).

Sickle haemoglobin, haemoglobin C and malaria mortality feedbacks.

BACKGROUND: Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) and haemoglobin C (HbC) are both caused by point mutations in the beta globin gene, and both offer substantial malaria protection. Despite the fact that the blood disorder caused by homozygosity for HbC is much less severe than that caused by homozygosity for HbS (sickle cell anaemia), it is the sickle mutation which has come to dominate many old-world malarious regions, whilst HbC is highly restricted in its geographical distribution. It has been suggested that this discrepancy may be due to sickle cell heterozygotes enjoying a higher level of malaria protection than heterozygotes for HbC. A higher fitness of sickle cell heterozygotes relative to HbC heterozygotes could certainly have allowed the sickle cell allele to spread more rapidly. However, observations that carrying either HbC or HbS enhances an individual's capacity to transmit malaria parasites to mosquitoes could also shed light on this conundrum. METHODS: A population genetic model was used to investigate the evolutionary consequences of the strength of malaria selection being correlated with either HbS frequency or HbC frequency. RESULTS: If the selection pressure from malaria is positively correlated with the frequency of either HbS or HbC, it is easier for HbS to succeed in the competitive interaction between the two alleles. CONCLUSIONS: A feedback process whereby the presence of variant haemoglobins increases the level of malaria selection in a population could have contributed to the global success of HbS relative to HbC, despite the former's higher blood disorder cost.