Complete cancer prevalence in Europe in 2020 by disease duration and country (EUROCARE-6): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survivors-people living with and beyond cancer-are a growing population with different health needs depending on prognosis and time since diagnosis. Despite being increasingly necessary, complete information on cancer prevalence is not systematically available in all European countries. We aimed to fill this gap by analysing population-based cancer registry data from the EUROCARE-6 study. METHODS: In this population-based study, using incidence and follow-up data up to Jan 1, 2013, from 61 cancer registries, complete and limited-duration prevalence by cancer type, sex, and age were estimated for 29 European countries and the 27 countries in the EU (EU27; represented by 22 member states that contributed registry data) using the completeness index method. We focused on 32 malignant cancers defined according to the third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, and only the first primary tumour was considered when estimating the prevalence. Prevalence measures are expressed in terms of absolute number of prevalent cases, crude prevalence proportion (reported as percentage or cases per 100 000 resident people), and age-standardised prevalence proportion based on the European Standard Population 2013. We made projections of cancer prevalence proportions up to Jan 1, 2020, using linear regression. FINDINGS: In 2020, 23 711 thousand (95% CI 23 565-23 857) people (5·0% of the population) were estimated to be alive after a cancer diagnosis in Europe, and 22 347 thousand (95% CI 22 210-22 483) in EU27. Cancer survivors were more frequently female (12 818 thousand [95% CI 12 720-12 917]) than male (10 892 thousand [10 785-11 000]). The five leading tumours in female survivors were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uterine cancer, skin melanoma, and thyroid cancer (crude prevalence proportion from 2270 [95%CI 2248-2292] per 100 000 to 301 [297-305] per 100 000). Prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, urinary bladder cancer, skin melanoma, and kidney cancer were the most common tumours in male survivors (from 1714 [95% CI 1686-1741] per 100 000 to 255 [249-260] per 100 000). The differences in prevalence between countries were large (from 2 to 10 times depending on cancer type), in line with the demographic structure, incidence, and survival patterns. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of prevalent cases increased by 3·5% per year (41% overall), partly due to an ageing population. In 2020, 14 850 thousand (95% CI 14 681-15 018) people were estimated to be alive more than 5 years after diagnosis and 9099 thousand (8909-9288) people were estimated to be alive more than 10 years after diagnosis, representing an increasing proportion of the cancer survivor population. INTERPRETATION: Our findings are useful at the country level in Europe to support evidence-based policies to improve the quality of life, care, and rehabilitation of patients with cancer throughout the disease pathway. Future work includes estimating time to cure by stage at diagnosis in prevalent cases. FUNDING: European Commission.

Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy.

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study.

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynaecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate Net Survival (NS), Cure Fraction, Time To Cure (5-year conditional NS>95%), Cure Prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and Already Cured (living longer than Time to Cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121,704) of Italian women were alive after corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52,551) after cervical, and 0.2% (52,153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (Cure Prevalence). Women with gynaecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% after 5 years since diagnosis. The Cure Fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time To Cure was ≤10 years for women with gynaecological cancers aged <55 years. 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were Already Cured. These results will contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynaecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones.

Autoimmune gastritis: long-term natural history in naïve Helicobacter pylori-negative patients.

OBJECTIVE: Autoimmune gastritis (AIG) is an immunomediated disease targeting parietal cells, eventually resulting in oxyntic-restricted atrophy. This long-term follow-up study aimed at elucidating the natural history, histological phenotype(s), and associated cancer risk of patients with AIG consistently tested H. pylori-negative (naïve H. pylori-negative subjects). DESIGN: Two-hundred eleven naïve H. pylori-negative patients (tested by serology, histology, molecular biology) with AIG (F:M=3.15:1; p<0.001) were prospectively followed up with paired biopsies (T1 vs T2; mean follow-up years:7.5 (SD:4.4); median:7). Histology distinguished non-atrophic versus atrophic AIG. Atrophy was further subtyped/scored as non-metaplastic versus metaplastic (pseudopyloric (PPM) and intestinal (IM)). Enterochromaffin-like-cell (ECL) status was categorised as diffuse versus adenomatoid hyperplasia/dysplasia, and type 1 neuroendocrine tumours (Type1-NETs). RESULTS: Over the long-term histological follow-up, AIG consistently featured oxyntic-predominant-mononuclear inflammation. At T1, PPM-score was greater than IM (200/211 vs 160/211, respectively); IM scores increased from T1 to T2 (160/211 to 179/211), with no changes in the PPM prevalence (T1=200/211; T2=201/211). At both T1/T2, the prevalence of OLGA-III-stage was <5%; no Operative Link on Gastritis Assessment (OLGA)-IV-stage occurred. ECL-cell-status progressed from diffuse to adenomatoid hyperplasia/dysplasia (T1=167/14 vs T2=151/25). Type1-NETs (T1=10; T2=11) always coexisted with extensive oxyntic-atrophy, and ECL adenomatoid-hyperplasia/dysplasia. No excess risk of gastric or other malignancies was found over a cumulative follow-up time of 10 541 person years, except for (marginally significant) thyroid cancer (SIR=3.09; 95% CI 1.001 to 7.20). CONCLUSIONS: Oxyntic-restricted inflammation, PPM (more than IM), and ECL-cell hyperplasia/neoplasia are the histological AIG hallmarks. Compared with the general population, corpus-restricted inflammation/atrophy does not increase the GC risk. The excess of GC risk reported in patients with AIG could plausibly result from unrecognised previous/current H. pylori comorbidity.

Non-compliance with colonoscopy after a positive faecal immunochemical test doubles the risk of dying from colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) among subjects with a positive faecal immunochemical test (FIT) who do not undergo a colonoscopy is unknown. We estimated whether non-compliance with colonoscopy after a positive FIT is associated with increased CRC incidence and mortality. METHODS: The FIT-based CRC screening programme in the Veneto region (Italy) invited persons aged 50 to 69 years with a positive FIT (>20 µg Hb/g faeces) for diagnostic colonoscopy at an endoscopic referral centre. In this retrospective cohort study, we compared the 10-year cumulative CRC incidence and mortality among FIT positives who completed a diagnostic colonoscopy within the programme (compliers) and those who did not (non-compliers), using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox-Aalen models. RESULTS: Some 88 013 patients who were FIT positive complied with colonoscopy (males: 56.1%; aged 50-59 years: 49.1%) while 23 410 did not (males: 54.6%; aged 50-59 years: 44.9%).The 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC was 44.7 per 1000 (95% CI, 43.1 to 46.3) among colonoscopy compliers and 54.3 per 1000 (95% CI, 49.9 to 58.7) in non-compliers, while the cumulative mortality for CRC was 6.8 per 1000 (95% CI, 5.9 to 7.6) and 16.0 per 1000 (95% CI, 13.1 to 18.9), respectively. The risk of dying of CRC among non-compliers was 103% higher than among compliers (adjusted HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.68 to 2.44). CONCLUSION: The excess risk of CRC death among those not completing colonoscopy after a positive faecal occult blood test should prompt screening programmes to adopt effective interventions to increase compliance in this high-risk population.

Excess risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: Results from the first Italian population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about late effects in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors is scarce. This study assessed the risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) to identify the most common SMNs to be considered in follow-up care. METHODS: Population-based cancer registries retrospectively identified first primary tumors (between 1976 and 2013) and SMNs in AYAs (15-39 years old at their cancer diagnosis). AYA cancer survivors were those alive at least 5 years after their first cancer diagnosis. The excess risk of SMNs was measured as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risk together with the cumulative incidence of SMNs. RESULTS: The cohort included 67,692 AYA cancer survivors. The excess risk of developing any SMN (SIR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-1.7) was 60%. The excess risk of SMNs was significantly high for survivors of lymphomas; cancers of the breast, thyroid, female genital tract, digestive organs, gonads, and urinary tract; and melanomas. The cumulative incidence of all SMNs in AYA cancer survivors within 25 years of their first cancer diagnosis was approximately 10%. Subsequent tumors contributing to approximately 60% of all SMNs were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer in females and colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and lymphomas in males. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the need to personalize follow-up strategies for AYA cancer survivors.

[Update of survival of cancer patients in Italy: geographical comparisons and focus on patients with cancers targeted by screening programmes, childhood cancers, and smoking-associated cancers]. / Aggiornamento della sopravvivenza dei pazienti con tumore in Italia: confronti geografici e focus su pazienti con tumori oggetto di screening, pediatrici e associati al fumo.

OBJECTIVES: to update the Italian estimates of survival for patients with a paediatric cancer, tobacco smoke-associated cancers, and cancers targeted by screening; to assess geographical differences. DESIGN: population-based descriptive study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: incident cancer cases diagnosed in 2010-2014, with follow-up to 2018, from 17 Italian cancer registries (covering 31% of the national population; 43% of the population residing in the North-Centre of the country and 8% of the population living in the South and Islands). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: age-standardized 5-year net survival (NS) by cancer site or type, sex, age, and geographical area. RESULTS: NS of patients aged ≥15 years with breast, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancers was higher in the North-Centre than in the South and Islands. The overall survival of people diagnosed with cancer in childhood (0-14 years) was 84.3%, with similar values among the geographical macro-areas and between males and females. Women with breast cancer within the current target age of the screening programmes and those in the younger age groups (45-49 years) show similar survival values; the same is true for women with colorectal cancer. In both cases, survival decreased in the age groups after the age of cessation of screening programmes. Survival of patients with tobacco smoke-associated cancers varies according to cancer site (from 11.1% for patients with pancreatic cancer to 79.7% for those with bladder cancer). For most cancer sites, women have higher survival than men. CONCLUSIONS: for adults, a geographical survival gap persists. The results may contribute to the debate on extending the target age for screening programmes and to support initiatives to encourage tobacco smoking cessation even after cancer diagnosis. For patients who receive a cancer diagnosis in childhood, survival similar to highest values internationally.

Colonoscopy-related adverse events and mortality in an Italian organized colorectal cancer screening program.

BACKGROUND: Post-colonoscopy adverse events are a key quality indicator in population-based colorectal cancer screening programs, and affect safety and costs. This study aimed to assess colonoscopy-related adverse events and mortality in a screening setting. METHODS: We retrieved data from patients undergoing colonoscopy within a screening program (fecal immunochemical test every 2 years, 50-69-year-olds, or post-polypectomy surveillance) in Italy between 2002 and 2014, to assess the rate of post-colonoscopy adverse events and mortality. Any admission within 30 days of screening colonoscopy was reviewed to capture possible events. Mortality registries were also matched with endoscopy databases to investigate 30-day post-colonoscopy mortality. Association of each outcome with patient-/procedure-related variables was assessed using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 117 881 screening colonoscopies (66 584, 56.5 %, with polypectomy) were included. Overall, 497 (0.42 %) post-colonoscopy adverse events occurred: 281 (0.24 %) bleedings (3.69‰/0.68‰, operative/diagnostic procedures) and 65 (0.06 %) perforations (0.75‰/0.29‰, respectively). At multivariable analysis, bleeding was associated with polyp size (≥ 20 mm: odds ratio [OR] 16.29, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 9.38-28.29), proximal location (OR 1.46, 95 %CI 1.14-1.87), and histology severity (high risk adenoma: OR 5.6, 95 %CI 2.43-12.91), while perforation was associated with endoscopic resection (OR 2.91, 95 %CI 1.62-5.22), polyp size (OR 4.34, 95 %CI 1.46-12.92), and proximal location (OR 1.94, 95 %CI 1.12-3.37). Post-colonoscopy mortality occurred in 15 /117 881 cases (1.27/10 000 colonoscopies). CONCLUSIONS: In an organized screening program, post-colonoscopy adverse events were rare but not negligible. The most frequent event was post-polypectomy bleeding, especially after resection of large (≥ 20 mm) and proximal lesions.

OLGA Gastritis Staging for the Prediction of Gastric Cancer Risk: A Long-term Follow-up Study of 7436 Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Gastritis OLGA-staging ranks the risk for gastric cancer (GC) in progressive stages (0-IV). This long-term follow-up study quantifies the GC risk associated with each OLGA stage. METHODS: Consecutive patients (7436) underwent esophagogastroscopy (T-0), with mapped gastric biopsies, OLGA staging, and H. pylori status assessment. Patients with neoplastic lesion (invasive or non-invasive) at the index endoscopy (and/or within 12 months) were excluded. All patients were followed-up (T-1) by combining different sources of clinical/pathological information (Regional Registries of: (i) esophagogastroduodenoscopies; (ii) pathology reports; (iii) cancer, (iv) mortality). The endpoint was histologically documented development of gastric epithelial neoplasia. RESULTS: At T-0, the patients' distribution by OLGA stage was: Stage 0 = 80.8%; Stage I = 12.6%; Stage II = 4.3%; Stage III = 2.0%; Stage IV = 0.3%; H. pylori infection was detected in 25.9% of patients. At the end of the follow-up (mean/median = 6.3/6.6 years), 28 incident neoplasia were documented (overall prevalence = 0.60 per 103/person-years; low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia = 17/28; high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia = 4/28; GC = 7/28). By OLGA stage at the enrollment, the rate of incident neoplasia was: Stage 0 = 1 case; rate/103 person-years = 0.03; 95%CI: 0.004-0.19; Stage I = 2 cases; rate/103 person-years = 0.34; 95%CI: 0.09-1.36; Stage II = 3 cases; rate/103 person-years = 1.48; 95%CI: 0.48-4.58; Stage III = 17 cases; rate/103 person-years = 19.1; 95%CI: 11.9-30.7; Stage IV = 5 cases; rate/103 person-years = 41.2; 95%CI: 17.2-99.3. Multivariate analysis including gender, age, H. pylori status, and OLGA stage at enrollment only disclosed OLGA stage as predictor of neoplastic progression (OLGA stage III: HR = 712.4, 95%CI = 92.543-5484.5; OLGA stage IV: HR = 1450.7, 95%CI = 166.7-12626.0). CONCLUSIONS: Among 7436 patients, OLGA stages at the enrollment correlated significantly with different risk for gastric neoplasia. Based on the obtained results, gastritis staging is a critical adjunct in endoscopy follow-up protocols aimed at GC secondary prevention.

Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. RESULTS: In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

An estimate of the number of people in Italy living after a childhood cancer.

Cancers diagnosed in children below the age of 15 years represent 1.2% of all cancer cases, and survival after a childhood cancer has greatly improved over the past 40 years in all high income countries. This study aims to estimate the number of people living in Italy after a childhood cancer for all cancers combined and for a selection of cancer types. We computed 15-year prevalence using data from 15 Italian population-based cancer registries (covering 19% of Italian population) and estimated complete prevalence for Italy by using the CHILDPREV method, implemented in the COMPREV software. A total of 44,135 persons were alive at January 1st, 2010 after a cancer diagnosed during childhood. This number corresponds to a proportion of 73 per 100,000 Italians and to about 2% of all prevalent cases. Among them, 54% were males and 64% had survived after being diagnosed before 1995, the start of the observation period. A quarter of all childhood prevalent cases were diagnosed with brain and central nervous system tumors, a quarter with acute lymphoid leukemia, and 7% with Hodgkin lymphoma. Nearly a quarter of prevalent patients were aged 40 years and older. Information about the number of people living after a childhood cancer in Italy by cancer type and their specific health care needs may be helpful to health-care planners and clinicians in the development of guidelines aimed to reduce the burden of late effect of treatments during childhood.

Impact on colorectal cancer mortality of screening programmes based on the faecal immunochemical test.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes based on the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) reduce CRC-specific mortality. Several studies have shown higher sensitivity with the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) compared with gFOBT. We carried out an ecological study to evaluate the impact of FIT-based screening programmes on CRC mortality. DESIGN: In the Veneto Region (Italy), biennial FIT-based screening programmes that invited 50-69-year-old residents were introduced in different areas between 2002 and 2009. We compared CRC mortality rates from 1995 to 2011 between the areas where screening started in 2002-2004 (early screening areas (ESA)) and areas that introduced the screening in 2008-2009 (late screening areas (LSA)) using Poisson regression models. We also compared available data on CRC incidence rates (1995-2007) and surgical resection rates (2001-2012). RESULTS: Before the introduction of screening, CRC mortality and incidence rates in the two areas were similar. Compared with 1995-2000, 2006-2011 mortality rates were 22% lower in the ESA than in the LSA (rate ratio (RR)=0.78; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89). The reduction was larger in women (RR=0.64; CI 0.51 to 0.80) than in men (RR=0.87; CI 0.73 to 1.04). In the ESA, incidence and surgery rates peaked during the introduction of the screening programme and then returned to the baseline (2006-2007 incidence) or dropped below initial values (surgery after 2007). CONCLUSIONS: FIT-based screening programmes were associated with a significant reduction in CRC mortality. This effect took place much earlier than reported by gFOBT-based trials and observational studies.

Geographical and temporal differences in gastric and oesophageal cancer registration by subsite and morphology in Europe.

Background: Gastric and oesophageal cancers pose a serious public health concern. In 2020 a total of 189,031 incident cases (136,038 stomach, 52,993 oesophagus) and 142,508 deaths (96,997 stomach, 45,511 oesophagus) were estimated in Europe. Oesophago-gastric cancers are a heterogeneous disease, with different aetiology and epidemiology for the various topographic subsites and main histopathological types. Topography subsite and morphology is key information to allow differentiating oesophago-gastric cancers. Correct registration and coding of such variables are fundamental in allowing proper description of the epidemiology of different subsites and histopathological types of oesophago-gastric cancers. The aim of this article is to highlight geographical and temporal variability in topography and morphology of oesophago-gastric cancers observed in Europe in the considered period. Methods: Data collected in the framework of the ENCR-JRC (European Commission's Joint Research Centre) data call and feeding the European Cancer Information System (ECIS) were used to assess the variability of topography and morphology registration of gastric and oesophageal cancer in Europe in the period 1995-2014. Malignant cancers of the stomach and the oesophagus were selected following, respectively, topography codes C16 and C15 of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3). Analyses were performed by subsite, morphology group, year, sex, and European region. Results: A total of 840,464 incident cases occurring in the period 1995-2014 - 579,264 gastric (67.2%) and 276,260 (32.8%) oesophageal carcinomas - was selected for the analysis. Data was recorded by 53 PBCRs (9 based in Northern Europe, 14 in Western Europe, 3 in Eastern Europe and 27 in Southern Europe) from 19 countries. Conclusion: A wide variability in oesophago-gastric cancers topographic subsites and histopathological types patterns was observed, with a corresponding improvement in accuracy of registration in the analysis period. PBCRs are ideally placed to guide the epidemiological evaluations of such a complex group of diseases, in collaboration with clinicians, patients and other public health stakeholders.

Cancer incidence in immigrants by geographical area of origin: data from the Veneto Tumour Registry, Northeastern Italy.

Objective: We investigated whether there are differences in cancer incidence by geographical area of origin in North-eastern Italy. Methods: We selected all incident cases recorded in the Veneto Tumour Registry in the period 2015-2019. Subjects were classified, based on the country of birth, in six geographical areas of origin (Italy, Highly Developed Countries-HDC, Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, South-central America). Age-standardized incidence rates and incidence rate ratio (IRR) were calculated, for all cancer sites and for colorectal, liver, breast and cervical cancer separately. Results: We recorded 159,486 all-site cancer cases; 5.2% cases occurred in subjects born outside Italy, the majority from High Migratory Pressure Countries (HMPC) (74.3%). Incidence rates were significantly lower in subjects born in HMPC in both sexes. Immigrants, in particular born in Asia and Africa, showed lower rates of all site cancer incidence. The lowest IRR for colorectal cancer was observed in males from South-Central America (IRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.09-0.44) and in females from Asia (IRR 0.32, 95%CI 0.18-0.70). The IRR of breast cancer appeared significantly lower than Italian natives in all female populations, except for those coming from HDC. Females from Eastern Europe showed a higher IRR for cervical cancer (IRR 2.02, 95%CI 1.57-2.61). Conclusion: Cancer incidence was found lower in subjects born outside Italy, with differences in incidence patterns depending on geographical area of origin and the cancer type in question. Further studies, focused on the country of birth of the immigrant population, would help to identify specific risk factors influencing cancer incidence.

Cost profiles of colorectal cancer patients in Italy based on individual patterns of care.

BACKGROUND: Due to changes in cancer-related risk factors, improvements in diagnostic procedures and treatments, and the aging of the population, in most developed countries cancer accounts for an increasing proportion of health care expenditures. The analysis of cancer-related costs is a topic of several economic and epidemiological studies and represents a research area of great interest to public health planners and policy makers. In Italy studies are limited either to some specific types of expenditures or to specific groups of cancer patients. Aim of the paper is to estimate the distribution of cancer survivors and associated health care expenditures according to a disease pathway which identifies three clinically relevant phases: initial (one year following diagnosis), continuing (between initial and final) and final (one year before death). METHODS: The methodology proposed is based on the reconstruction of patterns of care at individual level by combining different data sources, surveillance data and administrative data, in areas covered by cancer registration. RESULTS: A total colorectal cancer-related expenditure of 77.8 million Euros for 18012 patients (corresponding to about 4300 Euros per capita) is estimated in 2006 in two Italian areas located in Tuscany and Veneto regions, respectively. Cost of care varies according to the care pathway: 11% of patients were in the initial phase, and consumed 34% of total expenditure; patients in the final (6%) and in the continuing (83%) phase consumed 23% and 43% of the budget, respectively. There is an association between patterns of care/costs and patients characteristics such as stage and age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This paper represents the first attempt to attribute health care expenditures in Italy to specific phases of disease, according to varying treatment approaches, surveillance strategies and management of relapses, palliative care. The association between stage at diagnosis, profile of therapies and costs supports the idea that primary prevention and early detection play an important role in a public health perspective. Results from this pilot study encourage the use of such analyses in a public health perspective, to increase understanding of patient outcomes and economic consequences of differences in policies related to cancer screening, treatment, and programs of care.

A method for differentiating cancer prevalence according to health status, exemplified using a population-based sample of Italian colorectal cancer cases.

UNLABELLED: Cancer prevalence is the proportion of a population diagnosed with cancer. We present a method for differentiating prevalence into the proportions expected to survive without relapse, die of cancer within a year, and die of cancer within 10 years or survive with relapse at the end of the 10th year. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The method was applied to samples of colorectal cancer cases, randomly extracted from four Italian cancer registries (CRs). The CRs collected data on treatments, local relapses, distant relapses, and causes of death: 1) over the entire follow-up to 31 December 2007 for 601 cases diagnosed in 2002 (cohort approach); 2) over a single year (2007) for five cohorts of cases defined by year of diagnosis (from 1997 to 2001), alive at 1 January 2007 (total 298 cases). The cohorts were combined into a fictitious cohort with 10 years survival experience. For each year j after diagnosis the health status of cases alive at the beginning of j was estimated at the end of the 10th year. From these estimates the 10-year colorectal cancer prevalence was differentiated. RESULTS: We estimated: 74.7% alive without relapse or not undergoing treatment at the end of 10 years; 8.1% had died of colorectal cancer within a year; 11.4% had died of colorectal cancer 1-10 years after diagnosis or had relapsed or were undergoing treatment at the end of the 10th year; and 5.8% had died of other causes. CONCLUSIONS: We have introduced a new method for estimating the healthcare and rehabilitation demands of cancer survivors based on CR data plus treatment and relapse data specifically collected for samples of cases archived by CRs.

Projecting cancer prevalence by phase of care: a methodological approach for health service planning.

Background: In most developed countries, the number of cancer survivors is expected to increase in the coming decades because of rising incidence and survival rates and an aging population. These patients are heterogeneous in terms of health service demands: from recently diagnosed patients requiring first-course therapy to patients with extensive care needs and severe disabilities to long-term survivors who only need minimal care. Therefore, in terms of providing healthcare planners and policymakers with useful indicators for addressing policies according to health service demands, it is worth supplying updated measures of prevalence for groups of patients based on the level of care they require. The aim of this paper is to illustrate a new method for estimating short-term projections of cancer prevalence by phase of care that applies to areas covered by cancer registration. Methods: The proposed method combines linear regression models to project limited duration prevalence derived from cancer registry data and a session of the freely available software COMPREV to estimate the projected complete prevalence into three distinct clinically relevant phases of care: initial, continuing, and final. The method is illustrated and validated using data from the Veneto region in Italy for breast, colorectal, and lung cancers. Results: Prevalence is expected to increase in 2015-2026 for all considered cancer sites and sexes, with average annual variations spanning from 2.6% for women with lung cancer to 0.5% for men with colorectal cancer. The only exception is lung cancer prevalence in men, which shows an average annual decrease of 1.9%. The majority of patients are in the continuing phase of care, followed by the initial and final phases, except for lung cancer, where the final phase of care prevails over the initial one. Discussion: The paper proposes a method for estimating (short-term) future cancer healthcare needs that is based on user-friendly and freely available software and linear regression models. Validation results confirm the applicability of our method to the most frequent cancer types, provided that cancer registry data with at least 15 years of registration are available. Evidence from this method is addressed to policymakers for planning future cancer care, thus improving the cancer survivorship experience for patients and caregivers.