Development and validation of the ASGARD risk score for safe monitoring in asymptomatic nonsevere aortic stenosis.

AIMS: Current guidelines recommend serial echocardiography at minimum 1-2 year intervals for monitoring patients with nonsevere aortic valve stenosis (AS), which is costly and often clinically inconsequential.We aimed to develop and test whether the biomarker-based ASGARD risk score (Aortic Valve Stenosis Guarded by Amplified Risk Determination) can guide the timing of echocardiograms in asymptomatic patients with nonsevere AS. METHODS: The development cohort comprised 1,093 of 1,589 (69%) asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS who remained event-free one year after inclusion into the SEAS trial. Cox regression landmark analyses with a 2-year follow-up identified the model (ASGARD) with the lowest Akaike information criterion for association to AS-related composite outcome (heart failure hospitalization, aortic valve replacement, or cardiovascular death). Fine-Gray analyses provided cumulative event rates by ASGARD score quartiles. The ASGARD score was internally validated in the remaining 496 patients (31%) from the SEAS-cohort and externally in 71 asymptomatic outpatients with nonsevere AS from six Copenhagen hospitals. RESULTS: The ASGARD score comprises updated measurements of heart rate and age- and sex-adjusted N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide upon transaortic maximal velocity (Vmax) from the previous year. The ASGARD score had high predictive accuracy across all cohorts (external validation: area under the curve: 0.74 [95% CI, 0.62-0.86]), and similar to an updated Vmax measurement. An ASGARD score ≤50% was associated with AS-related event rates ≤5% for a minimum of 15 months. CONCLUSION: The ASGARD score could provide a personalized and safe surveillance alternative to routinely planned echocardiograms, so physicians can prioritize echocardiograms for high-risk patients.

In this study, we developed and examined the potential of the novel ASGARD risk score to tailor personalized follow-up intervals for diagnostic heart scans, incorporating updated heart rate and blood marker measurements along with the heart scan data from the previous year. Patients with the ASGARD risk score within the lowest 50% had a low annual risk of aortic valve-related events (less than 5%) for a minimum of 15 months.In clinical settings, the ASGARD score could provide a personalized and safe monitoring alternative to routine heart scans, prioritizing the diagnostic heart scans for high-risk patients.

Association of high-sensitivity troponin T with outcomes in asymptomatic non-severe aortic stenosis: a post-hoc substudy of the SEAS trial.

Background: High-sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT), a biomarker of cardiomyocyte overload and injury, relates to aortic valve replacement (AVR) and mortality in severe aortic stenosis (AS). However, its prognostic value remains unknown in asymptomatic patients with AS. We aimed to investigate if an hsTnT level >14 pg/mL (above upper limit of normal 99th percentile) is associated with echocardiographic AS-severity, subsequent AVR, ischaemic coronary events (ICE), and mortality in asymptomatic patients with non-severe AS. Methods: In this post-hoc sub-analysis of the multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled SEAS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00092677), we included asymptomatic patients with mild to moderate-severe AS. We ascertained baseline and 1-year hsTnT concentrations and examined the association between baseline levels and the risk of the primary composite endpoint, defined as the first event of all-cause mortality, isolated AVR (without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)), or ICE. Multivariable regressions and competing risk analyses examined associations of hsTnT level >14 pg/mL with clinical correlates and 5-year risk of the primary endpoint. Findings: Between January 6, 2003, and March 4, 2004, a total of 1873 patients were enrolled in the SEAS trial, and 1739 patients were included in this post-hoc sub-analysis. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 67.5 (9.7) years, 61.0% (1061) were men, 17.4% (302) had moderate-severe AS, and 26.0% (453) had hsTnT level >14 pg/mL. The median hsTnT difference from baseline to 1-year was 0.8 pg/mL (IQR, -0.4 to 2.3). In adjusted linear regression, log(hsTnT) did not correlate with echocardiographic AS severity (p = 0.36). In multivariable Cox regression, a hsTnT level >14 pg/mL vs. hsTnT ≤14 pg/mL was associated with an increased risk of the primary composite endpoint (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.18-1.70; p = 0.0002). In a competing risk model of first of the individual components of the primary endpoint, a hsTnT level >14 pg/mL was associated with ICE risk (HR 1.71; 95% CI, 1.23-2.38; p = 0.0013), but not with isolated AVR (p = 0.064) or all-cause mortality (p = 0.49) as the first event. Interpretation: hsTnT level is within the reference range (≤14 pg/mL) in 3 out of 4 non-ischaemic patients with asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS and remains stable during a 1-year follow-up regardless of AS-severity. An hsTnT level >14 pg/mL was mainly associated with subsequent ICE, which suggest that hsTnT concentration is primarily a risk marker of subclinical coronary atherosclerotic disease. Funding: Merck & Co., Inc., the Schering-Plough Corporation, the Interreg IVA program, Roche Diagnostics Ltd., and Gangstedfonden. Open access publication fee funding provided by prof. Olav W. Nielsen and Department of Cardiology, Bispebjerg University Hospital, Denmark.

Association of Annual N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide Measurements With Clinical Events in Patients With Asymptomatic Nonsevere Aortic Stenosis: A Post Hoc Substudy of the SEAS Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Recent studies have questioned the presumed low-risk status of patients with asymptomatic nonsevere aortic stenosis (AS). Whether annual N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements are useful for risk assessment is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of annual NT-proBNP measurements with clinical outcomes in patients with nonsevere AS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of annual NT-proBNP concentrations in the multicenter, double-blind Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) randomized clinical trial was performed. SEAS was conducted from January 6, 2003, to April 1, 2008. Blood samples were analyzed in 2016, and data analysis was performed from February 10 to October 10, 2021. SEAS included 1873 patients with asymptomatic AS not requiring statin therapy with transaortic maximal flow velocity from 2.5 to 4.0 m/s and preserved ejection fraction. This substudy included 1644 patients (87.8%) with available blood samples at baseline and year 1. EXPOSURES: Increased age- and sex-adjusted NT-proBNP concentrations at year 1 and a 1.5-fold or greater relative NT-proBNP concentration change from baseline to year 1. Moderate AS was defined as baseline maximal flow velocity greater than or equal to 3.0 m/s. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Aortic valve events (AVEs), which are a composite of aortic valve replacement, cardiovascular death, or incident heart failure due to AS progression, were noted. Landmark analyses from year 1 examined the association of NT-proBNP concentrations with outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1644 patients, 996 were men (60.6%); mean (SD) age was 67.5 (9.7) years. Adjusted NT-proBNP concentrations were within the reference range (normal) in 1228 of 1594 patients (77.0%) with NT-proBNP values available at baseline and in 1164 of 1644 patients (70.8%) at year 1. During the next 2 years of follow-up, the AVE rates per 100 patient-years for normal vs increased adjusted NT-proBNP levels at year 1 were 1.39 (95% CI, 0.86-2.23) vs 7.05 (95% CI, 4.60-10.81) for patients with mild AS (P < .01), and 10.38 (95% CI, 8.56-12.59) vs 26.20 (95% CI, 22.03-31.15) for those with moderate AS (P < .01). Corresponding all-cause mortality rates were 1.05 (95% CI, 0.61-1.81) vs 4.17 (95% CI, 2.42-7.19) for patients with mild AS (P < .01), and 1.60 (95% CI, 0.99-2.57) vs 4.78 (95% CI, 3.32-6.87) for those with moderate AS (P < .01). In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, the combination of a 1-year increased adjusted NT-proBNP level and 1.5-fold or greater NT-proBNP level change from baseline was associated with the highest AVE rates in both patients with mild AS (hazard ratio, 8.12; 95% CI, 3.53-18.66; P < .001) and those with moderate AS (hazard ratio, 4.05; 95% CI, 2.84-5.77; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this study suggest that normal NT-proBNP concentrations at 1-year follow-up are associated with low AVE and all-cause mortality rates in patients with asymptomatic nonsevere AS. Conversely, an increased 1-year NT-proBNP level combined with a 50% or greater increase from baseline may be associated with high AVE rates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00092677.

Osborn waves following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest-Effect of level of temperature management and risk of arrhythmia and death.

BACKGROUND: The Osborn or J-wave, an upright deflection of the J-point on the electrocardiogram (ECG), is often observed during severe hypothermia. A possible relation between Osborn waves (OW) and increased risk of ventricular arrhythmia has been reported. We sought to determine whether the level of targeted temperature management (TTM) following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) affects the prevalence of OW and to assess the associations between OW and risk of ventricular arrhythmia and death. METHODS AND RESULTS: The present study is part of the TTM-trial ECG-substudy (including OHCA-patients randomized to TTM at 33 °C vs. 36 °C from 24 of 36 sites). Serial 12-lead ECGs from 680 (94%) patients were analysed and stratified by OW at predefined time-points (0, 4, 28, 36, 72-h after admission). On admission, the overall prevalence of OW was 16%, increasing to 32% at target temperature, with higher prevalence in the 33 °C-group (40% vs. 23%, p < 0.0001). No difference in prevalence was found between the 33 °C- and 36 °C-groups on admission (18% vs. 14%, p = .11) or after rewarming (13% vs. 10%, p = .44). OW were not associated with increased risk of ventricular arrhythmia (Odds ratio = 0.78 (0.51-1.20), p = .26), but associated with significantly lower 180-day mortality as compared to no OW (38% vs. 52%, plog-rank = 0.001) in univariable analyses only. CONCLUSION: OW are frequent during TTM, particularly in patients treated with 33 °C. OW are not associated with increased risk of ventricular arrhythmia, and may be considered a benign physiological phenomenon, associated with lower mortality in univariable analyses.

Plasma Concentration of Biomarkers Reflecting Endothelial Cell- and Glycocalyx Damage are Increased in Patients With Suspected ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients developing cardiogenic shock (CS) during hospitalization is high. Catecholamines, ischemia, and inflammation (parameters present in CS) affect the endothelium. We hypothesized that plasma level of biomarkers reflecting endothelial damage would be associated with CS and mortality. METHODS: In 96% of 1467 consecutive patients with suspected STEMI, biomarkers reflecting endothelial cell- (soluble thrombomodulin, sTM) and glycocalyx- (syndecan-1) damage were measured on admission. Patients were stratified by CS development or not. CS-Patients were substratified by CS on admission (admission-CS), CS developed in the catheterization laboratory (cath. lab.-CS), or late CS. RESULTS: STEMI patients with admission-CS (n = 85) and cath.lab.-CS (n = 25) had higher levels of sTM and syndecan-1 compared with no-CS patients (n = 1,299). Late CS-patients (n = 58) had higher levels of sTM (median (25th; 75th percentile) 8.8 (7.0; 11.6) vs. 7.4 (6.0; 9.0) ng/mL, P = 0.0004) but not Syndecan-1 (P = 0.26) compared with no-CS patients. sTM was, however, not independently associated with late CS development (OR (95% CI) 1.07 (0.99-1.16), P = 0.09). Patients with the highest level of sTM and syndecan-1 had the highest 30-day mortality (Plogrank<0.0001). However, neither sTM nor Syndecan-1 was independently associated with 30-day mortality (HR (95% CI) sTM: 1.06 (0.996-1.12), P = 0.07; Syndecan-1: 1.04 (0.99-1.08), P = 0.12). CONCLUSION: Patients with suspected STEMI patients and admission-CS/cath.lab.-CS had elevated admission levels of sTM and Syndecan-1 compared with no CS patients. Patients developing late CS had higher sTM plasma concentration compared with patients without shock. However, the biomarker levels were not independently associated with late CS and mortality.