How prepared is the world? Identifying weaknesses in existing assessment frameworks for global health security through a One Health approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed faults in the way we assess preparedness and response capacities for public health emergencies. Existing frameworks are limited in scope, and do not sufficiently consider complex social, economic, political, regulatory, and ecological factors. One Health, through its focus on the links among humans, animals, and ecosystems, is a valuable approach through which existing assessment frameworks can be analysed and new ways forward proposed. Although in the past few years advances have been made in assessment tools such as the International Health Regulations Joint External Evaluation, a rapid and radical increase in ambition is required. To sufficiently account for the range of complex systems in which health emergencies occur, assessments should consider how problems are defined across stakeholders and the wider sociopolitical environments in which structures and institutions operate. Current frameworks do little to consider anthropogenic factors in disease emergence or address the full array of health security hazards across the social-ecological system. A complex and interdependent set of challenges threaten human, animal, and ecosystem health, and we cannot afford to overlook important contextual factors, or the determinants of these shared threats. Health security assessment frameworks should therefore ensure that the process undertaken to prioritise and build capacity adheres to core One Health principles and that interventions and outcomes are assessed in terms of added value, trade-offs, and cobenefits across human, animal, and environmental health systems.

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control.

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

Basic Reproduction Number of Chikungunya Virus Transmitted by Aedes Mosquitoes.

We estimated the weighted mean basic reproduction number (R0) of chikungunya virus based on outbreak size. R0 was 3.4 (95% CI 2.4-4.2) and varied for 2 primary chikungunya mosquito vectors: 4.1 (95% CI 1.5-6.6) for Aedes aegypti and 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-3.8) for Ae. albopictus.

Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America.

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1-31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries.

The Global Health Security index and Joint External Evaluation score for health preparedness are not correlated with countries' COVID-19 detection response time and mortality outcome.

Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE) are two well-known health security and related capability indices. We hypothesised that countries with higher GHSI or JEE scores would have detected their first COVID-19 case earlier, and would experience lower mortality outcome compared to countries with lower scores. We evaluated the effectiveness of GHSI and JEE in predicting countries' COVID-19 detection response times and mortality outcome (deaths/million). We used two different outcomes for the evaluation: (i) detection response time, the duration of time to the first confirmed case detection (from 31st December 2019 to 20th February 2020 when every country's first case was linked to travel from China) and (ii) mortality outcome (deaths/million) until 11th March and 1st July 2020, respectively. We interpreted the detection response time alongside previously published relative risk of the importation of COVID-19 cases from China. We performed multiple linear regression and negative binomial regression analysis to evaluate how these indices predicted the actual outcome. The two indices, GHSI and JEE were strongly correlated (r = 0.82), indicating a good agreement between them. However, both GHSI (r = 0.31) and JEE (r = 0.37) had a poor correlation with countries' COVID-19-related mortality outcome. Higher risk of importation of COVID-19 from China for a given country was negatively correlated with the time taken to detect the first case in that country (adjusted R2 = 0.63-0.66), while the GHSI and JEE had minimal predictive value. In the negative binomial regression model, countries' mortality outcome was strongly predicted by the percentage of the population aged 65 and above (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.21) while overall GHSI score (IRR: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98-1.01)) and JEE (IRR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96-1.02)) were not significant predictors. GHSI and JEE had lower predictive value for detection response time and mortality outcome due to COVID-19. We suggest introduction of a population healthiness parameter, to address demographic and comorbidity vulnerabilities, and reappraisal of the ranking system and methods used to obtain the index based on experience gained from this pandemic.

Where backyard poultry raisers seek care for sick poultry: implications for avian influenza prevention in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, backyard poultry raisers lack awareness of avian influenza and infrequently follow government recommendations for its prevention. Identifying where poultry raisers seek care for their ill poultry might help the government better plan how to disseminate avian influenza prevention and control recommendations. METHODS: In order to identify where backyard poultry raisers seek care for their ill poultry, we conducted in-depth and informal interviews: 70 with backyard poultry raisers and six with local poultry healthcare providers in two villages, and five with government veterinary professionals at the sub-district and union levels in two districts during June-August 2009. RESULTS: Most (86% [60/70]) raisers sought care for their backyard poultry locally, 14% used home remedies only and none sought care from government veterinary professionals. The local poultry care providers provided advice and medications (n = 6). Four local care providers had shops in the village market where raisers sought healthcare for their poultry and the remaining two visited rural households to provide poultry healthcare services. Five of the six local care providers did not have formal training in veterinary medicine. Local care providers either did not know about avian influenza or considered avian influenza to be a disease common among commercial but not backyard poultry. The government professionals had degrees in veterinary medicine and experience with avian influenza and its prevention. They had their offices at the sub-district or union level and lacked staffing to reach the backyard raisers at the village level. CONCLUSIONS: The local poultry care providers provided front line healthcare to backyard poultry in villages and were a potential source of information for the rural raisers. Integration of these local poultry care providers in the government's avian influenza control programs is a potentially useful approach to increase poultry raisers' and local poultry care providers' awareness about avian influenza.

Mild Respiratory Illness Among Young Children Caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2011.

Background: In March 2011, a multidisciplinary team investigated 2 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection, detected through population-based active surveillance for influenza in Bangladesh, to assess transmission and contain further spread. Methods: We collected clinical and exposure history of the case patients and monitored persons coming within 1 m of a case patient during their infectious period. Nasopharyngeal wash specimens from case patients and contacts were tested with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction, and virus culture and isolates were characterized. Serum samples were tested with microneutralization and hemagglutination inhibition assays. We tested poultry, wild bird, and environmental samples from case patient households and surrounding areas for influenza viruses. Results: Two previously healthy case patients, aged 13 and 31 months, had influenzalike illness and fully recovered. They had contact with poultry 7 and 10 days before illness onset, respectively. None of their 57 contacts were subsequently ill. Clade 2.2.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses were isolated from the case patients and from chicken fecal samples collected at the live bird markets near the patients' dwellings. Conclusion: Identification of H5N1 cases through population-based surveillance suggests possible additional undetected cases throughout Bangladesh and highlights the importance of surveillance for mild respiratory illness among populations frequently exposed to infected poultry.

Investigating a crow die-off in January-February 2011 during the introduction of a new clade of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 into Bangladesh.

We investigated unusual crow mortality in Bangladesh during January-February 2011 at two sites. Crows of two species, Corvus splendens and C. macrorhynchos, were found sick and dead during the outbreaks. In selected crow roosts, morbidity was ~1 % and mortality was ~4 % during the investigation. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1 was isolated from dead crows. All isolates were closely related to A/duck/India/02CA10/2011 (H5N1) with 99.8 % and A/crow/Bangladesh/11rs1984-15/2011 (H5N1) virus with 99 % nucleotide sequence identity in their HA genes. The phylogenetic cluster of Bangladesh viruses suggested a common ancestor with viruses found in poultry from India, Myanmar and Nepal. Histopathological changes and immunohistochemistry staining in brain, pancreas, liver, heart, kidney, bursa of Fabricius, rectum, and cloaca were consistent with influenza virus infection. Through our limited investigation in domesticated birds near the crow roosts, we did not identify any samples that tested positive for influenza virus A/H5N1. However, environmental samples collected from live-bird markets near an outbreak site during the month of the outbreaks tested very weakly positive for influenza virus A/H5N1 in clade 2.3.2.1-specific rRT-PCR. Continuation of surveillance in wild and domestic birds may identify evolution of new avian influenza virus and associated public-health risks.

Risk factors associated with cutaneous anthrax outbreaks in humans in Bangladesh.

Objectives: To determine the risk factors associated with cutaneous anthrax infection in humans. Methods: During 2013-2016, we investigated total 26 anthrax outbreaks across the country. We additionally conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors by recruiting four controls for each enrolled case. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated to identify risk factors using multivariate logistic regression. Results: Over the study period, a total of 1,210 suspected cutaneous anthrax cases were identified in seven districts of Bangladesh. Most of the cases (61%, n = 744) were detected from Meherpur district. Cases were detected over the year, with the peak number of outbreaks occurring in May. The overall attack rate of suspected cutaneous anthrax cases for 16 outbreaks was 20%, with the highest rate occurring among individuals aged 40-49 years. Persons who had a cut injury (aOR 19.04, CI: 4.08-88.86), weighed raw meat (aOR 5.73, CI: 3.03-10.83), mixed bones and meat (aOR 4.64, CI: 3.03-7.09), observed livestock slaughtering (aOR 2.86, CI: 2.02-4.04), had direct contact to an anthrax suspected livestock (aOR 2.68, CI:1.61-4.45), slaughtered livestock (aOR 2.29, CI: 1.3-4.02), and who did not wash hands with soap and water after direct contact (aOR 2.57, CI: 1.89-3.5) were more likely to develop cutaneous anthrax than people who did not have these exposures. Conclusion: Prior cut injuries on exposed body areas during meat handling and slaughtering of sick livestock were identified as potential risk factors for cutaneous anthrax, highlighting the importance of preventing the slaughter of sick animals. However, stopping slaughtering sick livestock, handling meat and livestock by-products to reduce anthrax exposures from livestock to humans may be difficult to achieve given the associated financial incentives in Bangladesh. Interventions such as hand washing with soap during slaughtering and processing meat can be targeted to affected communities to ameliorate some risk.

Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000-2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics.

The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000-2010 vs. 2011-2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000-2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000-2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011-2022. The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 °C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.

Rabies control in Bangladesh and prediction of human rabies cases by 2030: a One Health approach.

Background: Bangladesh is making progress toward achieving zero dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, a global goal set in 2015. Methods: Drawing from multiple datasets, including patient immunisation record books and mass dog vaccination (MDV) databases, we conducted a comprehensive analysis between 2011 and 2023 to understand the effectiveness of rabies control programmes and predict human rabies cases in Bangladesh by 2030 using time-series forecasting models. We also compared rabies virus sequences from GenBank in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries. Findings: The estimated dog population in Bangladesh was determined to be 1,668,140, with an average dog population density of 12.83 dogs/km2 (95% CI 11.14-14.53) and a human-to-dog ratio of 86.70 (95% CI 76.60-96.80). The MDV campaign has led to the vaccination of an average of 21,295 dogs (95% CI 18,654-23,935) per district annually out of an estimated 26,065 dogs (95% CI 22,898-29,230). A declining trend in predicted and observed human rabies cases has been identified, suggesting that Bangladesh is poised to make substantial progress towards achieving the 'Zero by 30' goal, provided the current trajectory continues. The phylogenetic analysis shows that rabies viruses in Bangladesh belong to the Arctic-like-1 group, which differs from those in Bhutan despite sharing a common ancestor. Interpretation: Bangladesh's One Health approach demonstrated that an increase in MDV and anti-rabies vaccine (ARV) resulted in a decline in the relative risk of human rabies cases, indicating that eliminating dog-mediated human rabies could be achievable. Funding: The study was supported by the Communicable Disease Control (CDC) Division of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.

Global prioritization of endemic zoonotic diseases for conducting surveillance in domestic animals to protect public health.

Zoonotic diseases (zoonoses) originating from domestic animals pose a significant risk to people's health and livelihoods, in addition to jeopardizing animal health and production. Effective surveillance of endemic zoonoses at the animal level is crucial to assessing the disease burden and risk, and providing early warning to prevent epidemics in animals and spillover to humans. Here we aimed to prioritize and characterize zoonoses for which surveillance in domestic animals is important to prevent human infections at a global scale. A multi-criteria qualitative approach was used, where disease-specific information was obtained across literature of the leading international health organizations. Thirty-two zoonoses were prioritized, all of which have multi-regional spread, cause unexceptional human infections and have domestic animal hosts as important sources or sentinels of zoonotic infections. Most diseases involve multiple animal hosts and/or modes of zoonotic transmission, where a lack of specific clinical signs in animals further complicates surveillance. We discuss the challenges of animal health surveillance in endemic and resource-limited settings, as well as potential avenues for improvement such as the multi-disease, multi-sectoral and digital surveillance approaches. Our study will support global capacity-building efforts to strengthen the surveillance and control of endemic zoonoses at their animal sources. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Phenotypic and Genotypic Characteristics of Antimicrobial Resistance in Citrobacter freundii Isolated from Domestic Ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domesticus) in Bangladesh.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Citrobacter freundii poses a serious challenge as this species is one of the sources of nosocomial infection and causes diarrheal infections in humans. Ducks could be the potential source of multidrug-resistant (MDR) C. freundii; however, AMR profiles in C. freundii from non-human sources in Bangladesh have remained elusive. This study aimed to detect C. freundii in domestic ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domesticus) in Bangladesh and to determine their phenotypic and genotypic antibiotic susceptibility patterns. A total of 150 cloacal swabs of diseased domestic ducks were screened using culturing, staining, biochemical, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) to detect C. freundii. Phenotypic and genotypic antibiotic susceptibility patterns were done by the disk diffusion method and PCR, respectively. In total, 16.67% (25/150) of the samples were positive for C. freundii. C. freundii isolates showed a range of 20% to 96% resistance to cefotaxime, gentamicin, levofloxacin, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, tetracycline, ampicillin, and cephalexin. More than 60% of the isolates were phenotypically MDR, and the index of multiple antibiotic resistance ranged from 0.07 to 0.79. Genes encoding resistance to beta-lactams [blaTEM-1-88% (22/25), blaCMY-2-56% (14/25), blaCMY-9-8% (2/25), and blaCTX-M-14-20% (5/25)], sulfonamides [sul1-52% (13/25), sul2-24% (6/25)], tetracyclines [tetA-32% (8/25) and tetB-4% (1/25)], aminoglycosides [aacC4-16% (4/25)], and fluoroquinolones [qnrA-4% (1/25), qnrB-12% (3/25), and qnrS-4% (1/25)] were detected in the isolated C. freundii. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in Bangladesh to detect MDR C. freundii with their associated resistance genes from duck samples. We suggest addressing the burden of diseases in ducks and humans and associated AMR issues using the One Health approach.

The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world.

Objectives: The global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods: A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results: By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions: Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.

Human Exposure to Bats, Rodents and Monkeys in Bangladesh.

Bats, rodents and monkeys are reservoirs for emerging zoonotic infections. We sought to describe the frequency of human exposure to these animals and the seasonal and geographic variation of these exposures in Bangladesh. During 2013-2016, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a nationally representative sample of 10,002 households from 1001 randomly selected communities. We interviewed household members about exposures to bats, rodents and monkeys, including a key human-bat interface-raw date palm sap consumption. Respondents reported observing rodents (90%), bats (52%) and monkeys (2%) in or around their households, although fewer reported direct contact. The presence of monkeys around the household was reported more often in Sylhet division (7%) compared to other divisions. Households in Khulna (17%) and Rajshahi (13%) were more likely to report drinking date palm sap than in other divisions (1.5-5.6%). Date palm sap was mostly consumed during winter with higher frequencies in January (16%) and February (12%) than in other months (0-5.6%). There was a decreasing trend in drinking sap over the three years. Overall, we observed substantial geographic and seasonal patterns in human exposure to animals that could be sources of zoonotic disease. These findings could facilitate targeting emerging zoonoses surveillance, research and prevention efforts to areas and seasons with the highest levels of exposure.

Occurrence of tuberculosis among people exposed to cattle in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) has been an important public health concern in Bangladesh. The most common cause of human TB is Mycobacterium tuberculosis, while bovine TB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of TB in individuals with occupational exposure to cattle and to detect Mycobacterium bovis among cattle in slaughterhouses in Bangladesh. METHODS: Between August 2014 and September 2015, an observational study was conducted in two government chest disease hospitals, one cattle market, and two slaughterhouses. [Correction added on 27 June 2023, after first online publication: In the preceding sentence, the year "2014" has been added after the word "August".] Sputum samples were collected from individuals who met the criteria for suspected TB and had been exposed to cattle. Tissue samples were collected from cattle that had low body condition score(s). Both humans and cattle samples were screened for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) by Ziehl-Neelsen (Z-N) staining and cultured for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC). Region of difference (RD) 9-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was also performed to identify Mycobacterium spp. We also conducted Spoligotyping to identify the specific strain of Mycobacterium spp. RESULTS: Sputum was collected from a total of 412 humans. The median age of human participants was 35 (IQR: 25-50) years. Twenty-five (6%) human sputum specimens were positive for AFB, and 44 (11%) were positive for MTC by subsequent culture. All (N = 44) culture-positive isolates were confirmed as Mycobacterium tuberculosis by RD9 PCR. Besides, 10% of cattle workers were infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the cattle market. Of all TB (caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis) infected individuals, 6.8% of individuals were resistant to one or two anti-TB drugs. The majority of the sampled cattle (67%) were indigenous breeds. No Mycobacterium bovis was detected in cattle. CONCLUSIONS: We did not detect any TB cases caused by Mycobacterium bovis in humans during the study. However, we detected TB cases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in all humans, including cattle market workers.

Current sampling and sequencing biases of Lassa mammarenavirus limit inference from phylogeography and molecular epidemiology in Lassa fever endemic regions.

Lassa fever (LF) is a potentially lethal viral haemorrhagic infection of humans caused by Lassa mammarenavirus (LASV). It is an important endemic zoonotic disease in West Africa with growing evidence for increasing frequency and sizes of outbreaks. Phylogeographic and molecular epidemiology methods have projected expansion of the Lassa fever endemic zone in the context of future global change. The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the predominant LASV reservoir, with few studies investigating the role of other animal species. To explore host sequencing biases, all LASV nucleotide sequences and associated metadata available on GenBank (n = 2,298) were retrieved. Most data originated from Nigeria (54%), Guinea (20%) and Sierra Leone (14%). Data from non-human hosts (n = 703) were limited and only 69 sequences encompassed complete genes. We found a strong positive correlation between the number of confirmed human cases and sequences at the country level (r = 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval = 0.71-0.98), p < 0.001) but no correlation exists between confirmed cases and the number of available rodent sequences (r = -0.019 (95% C.I. -0.71-0.69), p = 0.96). Spatial modelling of sequencing effort highlighted current biases in locations of available sequences, with increased sequencing effort observed in Southern Guinea and Southern Nigeria. Phylogenetic analyses showed geographic clustering of LASV lineages, suggestive of isolated events of human-to-rodent transmission and the emergence of currently circulating strains of LASV from the year 1498 in Nigeria. Overall, the current study highlights significant geographic limitations in LASV surveillance, particularly, in non-human hosts. Further investigation of the non-human reservoir of LASV, alongside expanded surveillance, are required for precise characterisation of the emergence and dispersal of LASV. Accurate surveillance of LASV circulation in non-human hosts is vital to guide early detection and initiation of public health interventions for future Lassa fever outbreaks.

The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities.

Bangladesh reported the highest number of annual deaths (n = 281) related to dengue virus infection in 2022 since the virus reappeared in the country in 2000. Earlier studies showed that >92% of the annual cases occurred between the months of August and September. The 2022 outbreak is characterized by late onset of dengue cases with unusually higher deaths in colder months, that is, October-December. Here we present possible hypotheses and explanations for this late resurgence of dengue cases. First, in 2022, the rainfall started late in the season. Compared to the monthly average rainfall for September and October between 2003 and 2021, there was 137 mm of additional monthly rainfall recorded in September and October 2022. Furthermore, the year 2022 was relatively warmer with a 0.71°C increased temperature than the mean annual temperature of the past 20 yr. Second, a new dengue virus serotype, DENV-4, had recently reintroduced/reappeared in 2022 and become the dominant serotype in the country for a large naïve population. Third, the post-pandemic return of normalcy after 2 yr of nonpharmaceutical social measures facilitates extra mosquito breeding habitats, especially in construction sites. Community engagement and regular monitoring and destruction of Aedes mosquitoes' habitats should be prioritized to control dengue virus outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Rift Valley fever seropositivity in humans and domestic ruminants and associated risk factors in Sengerema, Ilala, and Rufiji districts, Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: Data on Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) prevalence in urban settings and pastoral areas of Tanzania are scarce. We performed a cross-sectional study of RVFV seroprevalence and determinants in humans and animals from Ilala, Rufiji, and Sengerema districts of Tanzania. METHODS: Blood samples from the study participants were tested for anti-RVFV immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Logistic regression was used to determine association between exposure risk practices and RVFV seropositivity. RESULTS: The study involved 664 humans, 361 cattle, 394 goats, and 242 sheep. The overall anti-RVFV IgG seroprevalence in humans and animals was 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.04) and 9.5% (n = 95, 95% CI 0.08-0.12), respectively. Seroprevalence in humans in Rufiji, Ilala, and Sengerema was 3.0% (n = 225, 95% CI 0.01-0.06), 1.8% (n = 230, 95% CI-0.005- 0.04), and 1.4% (n = 209, 95% CI 0.01-0.04), respectively (P >0.05). Seroprevalence in animals in Sengerema, Rufiji, and Ilala was 12.1% (n = 40, 95% CI 0.09-0.16), 11.1% (n = 37, 95% CI 0.08-0.15), and 5.4% (n = 18, 95% CI 0.03-0.08), respectively (P = 0.006). Handling of carcasses increased the odds of RVFV seropositivity 12-fold (odds ratio 11.84, 95% CI 1.97-71.16). CONCLUSION: The study confirms previous occurrence of RVFV in multiple species in the study districts. Animal handling practices appear to be essential determinants of seropositivity.