A temporally stratified extension of space-for-time Cormack-Jolly-Seber for migratory animals.

Understanding drivers of temporal variation in demographic parameters is a central goal of mark-recapture analysis. To estimate the survival of migrating animal populations in migration corridors, space-for-time mark-recapture models employ discrete sampling locations in space to monitor marked populations as they move past monitoring sites, rather than the standard practice of using fixed sampling points in time. Because these models focus on estimating survival over discrete spatial segments, model parameters are implicitly integrated over the temporal dimension. Furthermore, modeling the effect of time-varying covariates on model parameters is complicated by unknown passage times for individuals that are not detected at monitoring sites. To overcome these limitations, we extended the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) framework to estimate temporally stratified survival and capture probabilities by including a discretized arrival time process in a Bayesian framework. We allow for flexibility in the model form by including temporally stratified covariates and hierarchical structures. In addition, we provide tools for assessing model fit and comparing among alternative structural models for the parameters. We demonstrate our framework by fitting three competing models to estimate daily survival, capture, and arrival probabilities at four hydroelectric dams for over 200 000 individually tagged migratory juvenile salmon released into the Snake River, USA.

Identifying resting locations of a small elusive forest carnivore using a two-stage model accounting for GPS measurement error and hidden behavioral states.

BACKGROUND: Studies of animal movement using location data are often faced with two challenges. First, time series of animal locations are likely to arise from multiple behavioral states (e.g., directed movement, resting) that cannot be observed directly. Second, location data can be affected by measurement error, including failed location fixes. Simultaneously addressing both problems in a single statistical model is analytically and computationally challenging. To both separate behavioral states and account for measurement error, we used a two-stage modeling approach to identify resting locations of fishers (Pekania pennanti) based on GPS and accelerometer data. METHODS: We developed a two-stage modelling approach to estimate when and where GPS-collared fishers were resting for 21 separate collar deployments on 9 individuals in southern Oregon. For each deployment, we first fit independent hidden Markov models (HMMs) to the time series of accelerometer-derived activity measurements and apparent step lengths to identify periods of movement and resting. Treating the state assignments as given, we next fit a set of linear Gaussian state space models (SSMs) to estimate the location of each resting event. RESULTS: Parameter estimates were similar across collar deployments. The HMMs successfully identified periods of resting and movement with posterior state assignment probabilities greater than 0.95 for 97% of all observations. On average, fishers were in the resting state 63% of the time. Rest events averaged 5 h (4.3 SD) and occurred most often at night. The SSMs allowed us to estimate the 95% credible ellipses with a median area of 0.12 ha for 3772 unique rest events. We identified 1176 geographically distinct rest locations; 13% of locations were used on > 1 occasion and 5% were used by > 1 fisher. Females and males traveled an average of 6.7 (3.5 SD) and 7.7 (6.8 SD) km/day, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that if auxiliary data are available (e.g., accelerometer data), a two-stage approach can successfully resolve both problems of latent behavioral states and GPS measurement error. Our relatively simple two-stage method is repeatable, computationally efficient, and yields directly interpretable estimates of resting site locations that can be used to guide conservation decisions.

Validation of diffuse correlation spectroscopic measurement of cerebral blood flow using phase-encoded velocity mapping magnetic resonance imaging.

Diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) is a novel optical technique that appears to be an excellent tool for assessing cerebral blood flow in a continuous and non-invasive manner at the bedside. We present new clinical validation of the DCS methodology by demonstrating strong agreement between DCS indices of relative cerebral blood flow and indices based on phase-encoded velocity mapping magnetic resonance imaging (VENC MRI) of relative blood flow in the jugular veins and superior vena cava. Data were acquired from 46 children with single ventricle cardiac lesions during a hypercapnia intervention. Significant increases in cerebral blood flow, measured both by DCS and by VENC MRI, as well as significant increases in oxyhemoglobin concentration, and total hemoglobin concentration, were observed during hypercapnia. Comparison of blood flow changes measured by VENC MRI in the jugular veins and by DCS revealed a strong linear relationship, R=0.88, p<0.001, slope=0.91±0.07. Similar correlations were observed between DCS and VENC MRI in the superior vena cava, R=0.77, slope=0.99±0.12, p<0.001. The relationship between VENC MRI in the aorta and DCS, a negative control, was weakly correlated, R=0.46, slope=1.77±0.45, p<0.001.