Decreasing snow cover alters functional composition and diversity of Arctic tundra.

The Arctic is one of the least human-impacted parts of the world, but, in turn, tundra biome is facing the most rapid climate change on Earth. These perturbations may cause major reshuffling of Arctic species compositions and functional trait profiles and diversity, thereby affecting ecosystem processes of the whole tundra region. Earlier research has detected important drivers of the change in plant functional traits under warming climate, but studies on one key factor, snow cover, are almost totally lacking. Here we integrate plot-scale vegetation data with detailed climate and snow information using machine learning methods to model the responsiveness of tundra communities to different scenarios of warming and snow cover duration. Our results show that decreasing snow cover, together with warming temperatures, can substantially modify biotic communities and their trait compositions, with future plant communities projected to be occupied by taller plants with larger leaves and faster resource acquisition strategies. As another finding, we show that, while the local functional diversity may increase, simultaneous biotic homogenization across tundra communities is likely to occur. The manifestation of climate warming on tundra vegetation is highly dependent on the evolution of snow conditions. Given this, realistic assessments of future ecosystem functioning require acknowledging the role of snow in tundra vegetation models.

High-Intensity Functional Training Induces Superior Training Adaptations Compared With Traditional Military Physical Training.

ABSTRACT: Helén, J, Kyröläinen, H, Ojanen, T, Pihlainen, K, Santtila, M, Heikkinen, R, and Vaara, JP. High-intensity functional training induces superior training adaptations compared with traditional military physical training. J Strength Cond Res 37(12): 2477-2483, 2023-This study examined the effectiveness of concurrent strength and endurance training with an emphasis on high-intensity functional training (HIFT) during military service. Voluntary male conscripts (aged 18-28 years) were placed in either an experimental (EXP: n = 50-66) or a control (CON: n = 50-67) group. The training for the EXP group included HIFT using body mass, sandbags, and kettlebells. The CON group trained according to the current practice. Physical performance and body composition were assessed at baseline (PRE), at week 10 (MID), and after (POST) the 19-week training period. Significance was set at p < 0.05. The total distance covered in a 12-minute running test increased in both groups, but the change in EXP was superior to the change in CON (11.6%, ES: 0.79 vs. 5.7%, ES: 0.33; p = 0.027). Maximal strength and power characteristics increased in EXP (3.1-5.0%), whereas no improvements were observed in CON. Conscripts with the highest initial fitness showed no improvements in physical performance in either group. Body mass and waist circumference decreased in EXP, whereas CON showed an increase in muscle mass. These findings suggest that HIFT is an effective and time-efficient approach to improve soldiers' aerobic fitness during military service. For the optimal development of strength, the training equipment used may not have provided sufficient and progressive loading to yield considerable strength adaptations. More focus should be placed on sufficient intensity and volume in both strength and endurance training, especially for the most fit soldiers.

Developing fine-grained nationwide predictions of valuable forests using biodiversity indicator bird species.

The use of indicator species in forest conservation and management planning can facilitate enhanced preservation of biodiversity from the negative effects of forestry and other uses of land. However, this requires detailed and spatially comprehensive knowledge of the habitat preferences and distributions of selected focal indicator species. Unfortunately, due to limited resources for field surveys, only a small proportion of the occurrences of focal species is usually known. This shortcoming can be circumvented by using modeling techniques to predict the spatial distribution of suitable sites for the target species. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and other remote sensing (RS) techniques have the potential to provide useful environmental data covering systematically large areas for these purposes. Here, we focused on six bird of prey and woodpecker species known to be good indicators of boreal forest biodiversity values. We used known nest sites of the six indicator species based on nestling ringing records. Thus, the most suitable nesting sites of these species provide important information for biodiversity-friendly forest management and conservation planning. We developed fine-grained, that is, 96 × 96 m grid cell resolution, predictive maps across the whole of Finland of the suitable nesting habitats based on ALS and other RS data and spatial information on the distribution of important forest stands for the six studied biodiversity indicator bird species based on nesting-habitat suitability modeling, that is, the MaxEnt model. Habitat preferences of the study species, as determined by MaxEnt, were in line with the previous knowledge of species-habitat relations. The proportion of suitable habitats of these species in protected areas (PAs) was considerable, but our analysis also revealed many potentially high-quality forest stands outside PAs. However, many of these sites are increasingly threatened by logging because of increased pressures for using forests for bioeconomy and forest industry based on National Forest Strategy. Predicting habitat suitability based on information on the nest sites of indicator species provides a new tool for systematic conservation planning over large areas in boreal forests in Europe, and a corresponding approach would also be feasible and recommendable elsewhere where similar data are available.

Sexual function in male long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Infertility, poor semen quality, and gonadal dysfunction are well recognized long-term sequelae in male survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). However, few studies have investigated adult sexual functioning in these survivors. METHODS: The authors studied 52 male survivors of childhood ALL at a median age of 28.5 years (range, 25-38 years) ≥ 10 years after diagnosis. In addition, 56 men without a history of cancer were recruited for an age-matched control group. The participants completed the Derogatis Interview for Sexual Functioning self-report. To analyze predictive factors for sexual dysfunction, variables assessing sociodemographic background, antileukemia treatment, testicular size, laboratory variables from current serum and semen samples, self-reported depressive symptoms, and self-reported physical functioning were included in multiple regression analyses. RESULTS: ALL survivors had significantly poorer sexual functioning, as measured by the Derogatis Interview for Sexual Functioning self-report, compared with the control group. Survivors had a similar frequency of sexual fantasies, autoerotic acts, and full erection during these activities as the control group, but they had less frequent sexual activity with a sexual partner, poorer self-rated orgasms, and lower satisfaction with their sex life. Predictive factors for poorer sexual functioning were depressive symptoms, the absence of a relationship, and, to a lesser extent, testicular size as an indication of gonadal damage from childhood antileukemia therapy. Older survivors experienced a deeper decline in sexual functioning compared with men in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Decline in sexual functioning at an early adult age can be regarded as 1 of the late effects of childhood cancer. Monitoring these survivors' sexual health is indicated. Cancer 2016;122:2268-76. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming.

Exercise self-efficacy remains unaltered during military service.

Background: Exercise self-efficacy is a crucial aspect of adopting and maintaining a physically active lifestyle. Regular physical activity may enhance exercise self-efficacy. This study aimed to investigate the baseline associations of physical fitness, physical activity, and body composition with exercise self-efficacy and the effects of military service on exercise self-efficacy. Methods: The sample consisted of healthy young Finnish conscripts (n = 243) undergoing military service. The participants were divided into two groups: an intervention group undergoing a high-intensity functional training program (n = 113) and a control group undergoing traditional physical training within their military service (n = 130). Exercise self-efficacy (adoption and barrier) and aerobic and muscular fitness were measured thrice (baseline, month 3, and month 5). Self-reported leisure-time physical activity and measured fat percentage were collected at baseline. Results: Adoption and barrier exercise self-efficacy correlated positively with aerobic and muscular fitness and leisure time physical activity (r = 0.33-0.59, p < 0.001), and barrier self-efficacy negatively with fat percentage (r = -0.15, p < 0.05) at baseline. No changes in adoption (time p = 0.912) and barrier self-efficacy (time p = 0.441) occurred during the military service. There were no differences between groups in these changes (group × time interaction p = 0.643 for adoption self-efficacy and p = 0.872 for barrier self-efficacy). Change in muscular fitness correlated positively with change in barrier self-efficacy in the high-intensity functional training group (r = 0.35, p < 0.05). Conclusions: Exercise self-efficacy is positively associated with physical fitness and physical activity among young males. However, military service, whether it involves high-intensity functional physical training or more diverse traditional physical training, does not improve exercise self-efficacy.

Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche.

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

Bioclimate change across the protected area network of Finland.

Protected areas (PAs) are crucial in conserving biodiversity under climate change. In boreal regions, trends of biologically relevant climate variables (i.e., bioclimate) in PAs have remained unquantified. We investigated the changes and variability of 11 key bioclimatic variables across Finland during the period 1961-2020 based on gridded climatology. Our results suggest significant changes in annual mean and growing season temperatures over the entire study area, whereas, e.g., annual precipitation sum and April-September water balance have increased especially in the central and northern parts of Finland. We found substantial variation in bioclimatic changes over the 631 studied PAs; in the northern boreal zone (NB) the number of snow-covered days has decreased on average by 5.9 days between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, while in the southern boreal zone (SB) the corresponding decrease has been 16.1 days. The number of frost days in spring with absent snow cover has decreased in the NB (on average -0.9 days) while increasing in the SB (0.5 days), reflecting the changing exposure of biota to frost. The observed increases in accumulation of heat in the SB and more frequent rain-on-snow events in the NB can affect drought tolerance and winter survival of species, respectively. Principal component analysis suggested that the main dimensions of bioclimate change in PAs vary across vegetation zones; for example, in the SB the changes are related to annual and growing season temperatures, whereas in the middle boreal zone the changes are linked to altered moisture and snow conditions. Our results highlight the substantial spatial variation in bioclimatic trends and climate vulnerability across the PAs and vegetation zones. These findings provide a basis for the understanding of the multifaceted changes the boreal PA network is facing and help to develop and direct conservation and management.

Effects of 36-hour recovery on marksmanship and hormone concentrations during strenuous winter military survival training.

OBJECTIVES: Survival training can provide a unique setting for scientific examination of human stress responses and physical performance in a realistic operational military context. The aim of the present study was to observe effects of a 36-h recovery period on serum hormone concentrations, salivary cortisol, and marksmanship during 10-day winter military survival training in north of the Arctic Circle. DESIGN AND METHODS: Sixty-eight male soldiers were randomly divided into two groups; EXP (n = 26) and CON (n = 42). While CON performed the whole exercise phase in the field, EXP had 36-h recovery period between days 6 and 8. Several hormones were measured during the study to investigate recovery. RESULTS: Subjective physical and mental demand as well as catabolic hormone levels increased and anabolic hormones decreased in CON (p < 0.05), whereas in EXP, recovery period attenuated negative effects of survival training. Prone shooting performance decreased (87.5 ± 6.5 vs. 76.3 ± 8.8, points out of 100, p < 0.05) between days 6 and 8 in CON while EXP was able to maintain shooting performance throughout the study. CONCLUSION: A short recovery during a strenuous training can prevent the degradation in psychophysiological state and shooting performance in soldiers, which can be crucial for survival in demanding operational winter environment. In the present study, 36-h rest period during the field training seems to enhance recovery but the duration of the period was inadequate for full recovery from the accumulated operative stress. In conclusion, appropriate recovery periods should be implemented in order to optimize occupational performance during high operative stress.

Energy Balance, Hormonal Status, and Military Performance in Strenuous Winter Training.

Severe energy deficit may impair hormonal regulation and physical performance in military trainings. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between energy intake, expenditure, and balance, hormones and military performance during a winter survival training. Two groups were studied: the FEX group (n = 46) had 8-day garrison and field training, whereas the RECO group (n = 26) had a 36-h recovery period after the 6-day garrison and field training phase. Energy intake was assessed by food diaries, expenditure via heart rate variability, body composition by bioimpedance, and hormones by blood samples. Strength, endurance and shooting tests were done for evaluating military performance. PRE 0 d, MID 6 d, POST 8 d measurements were carried out. Energy balance was negative in PRE and MID (FEX -1070 ± 866, -4323 ± 1515; RECO -1427 ± 1200, -4635 ± 1742 kcal·d-1). In POST, energy balance differed between the groups (FEX -4222 ± 1815; RECO -608 ± 1107 kcal·d-1 (p < 0.001)), as well as leptin, testosterone/cortisol ratio, and endurance performance (p = 0.003, p < 0.001, p = 0.003, respectively). Changes in energy intake and expenditure were partially associated with changes in leptin and the testosterone/cortisol ratio, but not with physical performance variables. The 36-h recovery restored energy balance and hormonal status after strenuous military training, but these outcomes were not associated with strength or shooting performance.

Relationships between psychosocial well-being and leisure time physical activity among 160.000 young Finnish men: a cross-sectional study during 2015-2021.

Evidence on the relationship between psychosocial well-being and physical activity (PA) is insufficient, especially in young adults between 18 and 29 years. Identifying protective factors for psychosocial well-being as well as factors that may promote PA behaviour in this specific age group is crucial.The aim of the present study was to explore the association between self-reported leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and a number of measures of psychosocial well-being in a large sample of Finnish young men. The sample used for this study is based on registers of the Finnish Defence Forces and consist of questionnaire-based data collected from 159,776 young healthy men (18-29 years, mean age 19 years) who started their military service during the period from 2015 to 2021. Sum scores were calculated for self-esteem and prosocial behaviour. Physical activity, number of friends and the relationship with the parents were each measured with a single question. Unadjusted and adjusted (education, financial situation of the family, family structure) logistic regression models were calculated.A multinominal logistic regression analysis showed that a higher level of LTPA was associated with a higher level of both prosocial behaviour (OR 6.12, 95% CI 5.88-6.36) and self-esteem (OR 4.41 95% CI 4.28-4.54). Further, LTPA had a positive relationship with good social relations, both with peers and parents. The odds ratio for participation in any LTPA weekly was higher (OR 2.74; CI 2.27-3.20) among those who had a close and trustworthy relationship with their parents compared to those men with more challenging relationships with their parents (OR 1.77; CI 1.46-2.14). An inactive lifestyle (PA less than once a week) seemed to be most common among men with no friends. About one third (31%) of men with no friends reported to engage in LTPA less than once a week, while only 10% of men with very many good friends reported to engage in similarly inactive LTPA behaviour.LTPA seems to be positively associated with self-esteem, prosocial behaviour and good social relations among young adult men. Actions aimed at promoting LTPA may have a positive impact on psychosocial well-being among young men, or vice versa. The relationship between PA and psychosocial well-being is complex and interrelated.

Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale.

Forest management methods and harvest intensities influence wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. We devised different management scenarios by means of stakeholder analysis and incorporated them in the forest growth simulator PREBAS. To analyse impacts of harvest intensity, we used constraints on total harvest: business as usual, low harvest, intensive harvest and no harvest. We carried out simulations on a wall-to-wall grid in Finland until 2050. Our objectives were to (1) test how the management scenarios differed in their projections, (2) analyse the potential wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under the different harvest levels, and (3) compare different options of allocating the scenarios and protected areas. Harvest level was key to carbon stocks and fluxes regardless of management actions and moderate changes in proportion of strictly protected forest. In contrast, biodiversity was more dependent on other management variables than harvesting levels, and relatively independent of carbon stocks and fluxes.

Role of data uncertainty when identifying important areas for biodiversity and carbon in boreal forests.

Forest conservation plays a central role in meeting national and international biodiversity and climate targets. Biodiversity and carbon values within forests are often estimated with models, introducing uncertainty to decision making on which forest stands to protect. Here, we explore how uncertainties in forest variable estimates affect modelled biodiversity and carbon patterns, and how this in turn introduces variability in the selection of new protected areas. We find that both biodiversity and carbon patterns were sensitive to alterations in forest attributes. Uncertainty in features that were rare and/or had dissimilar distributions with other features introduced most variation to conservation plans. The most critical data uncertainty also depended on what fraction of the landscape was being protected. Forests of highest conservation value were more robust to data uncertainties than forests of lesser conservation value. Identifying critical sources of model uncertainty helps to effectively reduce errors in conservation decisions.

Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection.

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.

Changes in Body Composition, Energy Metabolites and Electrolytes During Winter Survival Training in Male Soldiers.

The aim of this study was to examine changes in body composition, energy metabolites and electrolytes during a 10-day winter survival training period. Two groups of male soldiers were examined: the REC group (n = 26; age 19.7 ± 1.2 years; BMI 23.9 ± 2.7) had recovery period between days 6 and 8 in the survival training, whereas the EXC group (n = 42; age 19.6 ± 0.8 years; BMI 23.1 ± 2.8) did not. The following data were collected: body composition (bioimpedance), energy balance (food diaries, heart rate variability measurements), and biomarkers (blood samples). In survival training, estimated energy balance was highly negative: -4,323 ± 1,515 kcal/d (EXC) and -4,635 ± 1,742 kcal/d (REC). Between days 1 and 10, body mass decreased by 3.9% (EXC) and 3.0% (REC). On day 6, free fatty acid and urea levels increased, whereas leptin, glucose and potassium decreased in all. Recovery period temporarily reversed some of the changes (body mass, leptin, free fatty acids, and urea) toward baseline levels. Survival training caused a severe energy deficit and reductions in body mass. The early stage of military survival training seems to alter energy, hormonal and fluid metabolism, but these effects disappear after an active recovery period.

Impact or No Impact for Women With Mild Knee Osteoarthritis: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Two Randomized Controlled Trials With Contrasting Interventions.

OBJECTIVE: To predict the probability of a benefit from 2 contrasting exercise programs for women with a new diagnosis of mild knee osteoarthritis, and to estimate the short- and long-term effects of aquatic resistance training (ART) and high-impact aerobic land training (HLT) compared with a control. METHODS: Original data sets from 2 previously conducted randomized controlled trials were combined and used in a Bayesian meta-analysis. Group differences in multiple response variables were estimated. Variables included cardiorespiratory fitness, dynamic maximum leg muscle power, maximal isometric knee extension and flexion force, pain, other symptoms, and quality of life. The statistical model included a latent commitment variable for each female participant. RESULTS: ART had a 55-71% probability of benefits in the outcome variables, and as the main effect, the intervention outperformed the control in cardiorespiratory fitness, with a probability of 71% immediately after the intervention period. HLT had a 46-63% probability of benefits after intervention with the outcome variables, but differently from ART; the positive effects of physical performance fade away during the follow-up period. Overall, the differences between groups were small, and the variation in the predictions between individuals was high. CONCLUSION: Both interventions had benefits, but ART has a slightly higher probability of long-term benefits on physical performance. Because of high individual variation and no clear advantage of one training method over the other, personal preferences should be considered in the selection of the exercise program to ensure highest commitment to training.

Habitat fragmentation causes immediate and time-delayed biodiversity loss at different trophic levels.

Intensification or abandonment of agricultural land use has led to a severe decline of semi-natural habitats across Europe. This can cause immediate loss of species but also time-delayed extinctions, known as the extinction debt. In a pan-European study of 147 fragmented grassland remnants, we found differences in the extinction debt of species from different trophic levels. Present-day species richness of long-lived vascular plant specialists was better explained by past than current landscape patterns, indicating an extinction debt. In contrast, short-lived butterfly specialists showed no evidence for an extinction debt at a time scale of c. 40 years. Our results indicate that management strategies maintaining the status quo of fragmented habitats are insufficient, as time-delayed extinctions and associated co-extinctions will lead to further biodiversity loss in the future.

Can Physiological and Psychological Factors Predict Dropout from Intense 10-Day Winter Military Survival Training?

Background: In the military context, high levels of physiological and psychological stress together can compromise individual's ability to complete given duty or mission and increase dropout rates. The purpose of this study was to investigate if baseline physical fitness, body composition, hormonal and psychological factors could predict dropout from a 10-day intense winter military survival training. Methods: 69 conscripts volunteered to participate in the study. Physical fitness (muscle strength and power, muscle endurance, and aerobic fitness), body composition and hormonal variables (BDNF, testosterone, cortisol, SHBG, DHEAS, IGF-1) together with self-reported psychological factors (short five personality, hardiness, sense of coherence, stress, depression) were assessed prior the survival training. Results: During the survival training, 20 conscripts (29%) dropped out. Baseline aerobic fitness (hazard ratio, HR: 0.997, 95% CI: 0.994-0.999, p = 0.006) and serum cortisol (HR: 1.0006, 95% CI: 1.001-1.011, p = 0.017) predicted dropout in Cox regression model. Each 10 m increase in the 12 min running test decreased the risk for dropout by 3%. Conclusion: Although most of the physiological and psychological variables at the baseline did not predict dropout during a short-term winter survival military training, baseline information of aerobic fitness and serum cortisol concentration may be useful to target support for individuals at higher potential risk for dropout.

Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change.

Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.

Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.