Trawl impacts on the relative status of biotic communities of seabed sedimentary habitats in 24 regions worldwide.

Bottom trawling is widespread globally and impacts seabed habitats. However, risks from trawling remain unquantified at large scales in most regions. We address these issues by synthesizing evidence on the impacts of different trawl-gear types, seabed recovery rates, and spatial distributions of trawling intensity in a quantitative indicator of biotic status (relative amount of pretrawling biota) for sedimentary habitats, where most bottom-trawling occurs, in 24 regions worldwide. Regional average status relative to an untrawled state (=1) was high (>0.9) in 15 regions, but <0.7 in three (European) regions and only 0.25 in the Adriatic Sea. Across all regions, 66% of seabed area was not trawled (status = 1), 1.5% was depleted (status = 0), and 93% had status > 0.8. These assessments are first order, based on parameters estimated with uncertainty from meta-analyses; we recommend regional analyses to refine parameters for local specificity. Nevertheless, our results are sufficiently robust to highlight regions needing more effective management to reduce exploitation and improve stock sustainability and seabed environmental status-while also showing seabed status was high (>0.95) in regions where catches of trawled fish stocks meet accepted benchmarks for sustainable exploitation, demonstrating that environmental benefits accrue from effective fisheries management. Furthermore, regional seabed status was related to the proportional area swept by trawling, enabling preliminary predictions of regional status when only the total amount of trawling is known. This research advances seascape-scale understanding of trawl impacts in regions around the world, enables quantitative assessment of sustainability risks, and facilitates implementation of an ecosystem approach to trawl fisheries management globally.

Trade-offs between bycatch and target catches in static versus dynamic fishery closures.

While there have been recent improvements in reducing bycatch in many fisheries, bycatch remains a threat for numerous species around the globe. Static spatial and temporal closures are used in many places as a tool to reduce bycatch. However, their effectiveness in achieving this goal is uncertain, particularly for highly mobile species. We evaluated evidence for the effects of temporal, static, and dynamic area closures on the bycatch and target catch of 15 fisheries around the world. Assuming perfect knowledge of where the catch and bycatch occurs and a closure of 30% of the fishing area, we found that dynamic area closures could reduce bycatch by an average of 57% without sacrificing catch of target species, compared to 16% reductions in bycatch achievable by static closures. The degree of bycatch reduction achievable for a certain quantity of target catch was related to the correlation in space and time between target and bycatch species. If the correlation was high, it was harder to find an area to reduce bycatch without sacrificing catch of target species. If the goal of spatial closures is to reduce bycatch, our results suggest that dynamic management provides substantially better outcomes than classic static marine area closures. The use of dynamic ocean management might be difficult to implement and enforce in many regions. Nevertheless, dynamic approaches will be increasingly valuable as climate change drives species and fisheries into new habitats or extended ranges, altering species-fishery interactions and underscoring the need for more responsive and flexible regulatory mechanisms.

Is the long-tailed macaque at risk of extinction?

We review the evidence that long-tailed macaques are at risk of extinction and find that papers supporting this argument present no data supporting a hypothesized decline in abundance. These papers contain numerous misrepresentations of the published literature. Long-tailed macaques thrive in human-altered habitats, are listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature as an invasive species of concern, and have shown the ability to increase by 7%-10% per year from low numbers, making the probability of extinction very low.

Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status.

Marine fish stocks are an important part of the world food system and are particularly important for many of the poorest people of the world. Most existing analyses suggest overfishing is increasing, and there is widespread concern that fish stocks are decreasing throughout most of the world. We assembled trends in abundance and harvest rate of stocks that are scientifically assessed, constituting half of the reported global marine fish catch. For these stocks, on average, abundance is increasing and is at proposed target levels. Compared with regions that are intensively managed, regions with less-developed fisheries management have, on average, 3-fold greater harvest rates and half the abundance as assessed stocks. Available evidence suggests that the regions without assessments of abundance have little fisheries management, and stocks are in poor shape. Increased application of area-appropriate fisheries science recommendations and management tools are still needed for sustaining fisheries in places where they are lacking.

Evaluating impacts of forage fish abundance on marine predators.

Forage fish-small, low trophic level, pelagic fish such as herrings, sardines, and anchovies-are important prey species in marine ecosystems and also support large commercial fisheries. In many parts of the world, forage fish fisheries are managed using precautionary principles that target catch limits below the maximum sustainable yield. However, there are increasing calls to further limit forage fish catch to safeguard their fish, seabird, and marine mammal predators. The effectiveness of these extra-precautionary regulations, which assume that increasing prey abundance increases predator productivity, are under debate. In this study, we used prey-linked population models to measure the influence of forage fish abundance on the population growth rates of 45 marine predator populations representing 32 fish, seabird, and mammal species from 5 regions around the world. We used simulated data to confirm the ability of the statistical model to accurately detect prey influences under varying levels of influence strength and process variability. Our results indicate that predator productivity was rarely influenced by the abundance of their forage fish prey. Only 6 predator populations (13% of the total) were positively influenced by increasing prey abundance and the model exhibited high power to detect prey influences when they existed. These results suggest that additional limitation of forage fish harvest to levels well below sustainable yields would rarely result in detectable increases in marine predator populations.

Evaluación de los Efectos de la Abundancia de Peces Forrajeros sobre los Depredadores Marinos Resumen Los peces forrajeros-peces pequeños, pelágicos y de bajo nivel trófico como el arenque, las sardinas y las anchoas-son especies presa importantes en los ecosistemas marinos y además mantienen a grandes pesquerías comerciales. En muchas partes del mundo, las pesquerías de los peces forrajeros son manejadas mediante el uso de principios precautorios que se enfocan en los límites de captura por debajo de la producción máxima sostenible. Sin embargo, cada vez hay más peticiones para incrementar la limitación de la captura de peces forrajeros para salvaguardar a las especies depredadoras de peces, aves y mamíferos marinos asociadas a estos peces. La efectividad de estas regulaciones, que están basadas en el supuesto de que al incrementar la abundancia de presas incrementa la productividad de los depredadores, está en debate. Usamos modelos poblacionales vinculados a la presa para medir la influencia de la abundancia de los peces forrajeros sobre las tasas de crecimiento poblacional de 45 poblaciones de depredadores marinos (28 peces, 10 aves marinas y 7 mamíferos) en cinco regiones alrededor del mundo. Usamos datos simulados para confirmar la habilidad del modelo estadístico para detectar certeramente las influencias de la presa bajo niveles variantes de fuerza de influencia y de proceso de variabilidad. La productividad del depredador rara vez afectó a la abundancia de su presa forrajera. Sólo seis poblaciones de depredadores (13% del total) estuvieron afectadas positivamente por la creciente abundancia de la presa y el modelo exhibió un poder alto para detectar las influencias de la presa cuando estuvieron presentes. Estos resultados sugieren que las limitaciones sobre la pesca de peces forrajeros a niveles muy por debajo de la productividad sostenible pocas veces resultarían en incrementos detectables en las poblaciones de depredadores marinos.

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3-7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23-148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was -7% (90% credible interval: -31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.

Las áreas marinas protegidas (AMPs) cubren entre 3-7% de los océanos del planeta y las organizaciones internacionales piden una cobertura del 30% para el 2030. Aunque numerosos estudios muestran que las AMPs producen beneficios de conservación dentro de sus límites, muchas de estas áreas también están justificadas por otorgarles beneficios de conservación a las poblaciones conectadas que abarcan más allá de sus fronteras. Una red de AMPs que cubre aproximadamente el 20% del Santuario Marino Nacional de las Islas del Canal fue establecida en 2003 con el objetivo de proporcionar beneficios para la conservación y las pesquerías regionales. Usamos un modelo de simulación bioeconómica espacialmente explícito y una regresión bayesiana de diferencia-en-diferencia para examinar las condiciones bajo las que las AMPs pueden proporcionar beneficios de conservación a nivel poblacional dentro y fuera de sus límites y para evaluar las evidencias de esos beneficios en las Islas del Canal. Hasta el 2017, estimamos que la densidad de la biomasa de los peces focalizados tuvo un valor medio de 81% (90% intervalo creíble 23-148) dentro de las AMPs de las Islas del Canal que fuera de ellas. Sin embargo, no encontramos un efecto claro de estas AMPs sobre la densidad de biomasa total promedio a nivel poblacional; el efecto medio estimado fue de -7% (90% intervalo creíble -31 - 23) entre 2015 y 2017. Nuestro modelo de simulación mostró que los tamaños del efecto de las AMPs menores al 30% tenían mayor probabilidad de ser difíciles de detectar (incluso cuando estaban presentes); los tamaños de efecto más pequeños (que es probable que sean comunes) fueron incluso más difíciles de detectar. Claramente, es muy importante comunicar las expectativas e incertidumbres en torno a las AMPs para asegurar que éstas sean efectivas. Proporcionamos una evaluación novedosa de los efectos a nivel poblacional de una red extensa de AMPs para muchas especies de peces focalizados y nuestros resultados ofrecen una guía para las comunidades encargadas de monitorear y adaptar las AMPs.

Who's onboard? A predictive analysis of cooperative formation in commercial fisheries.

Fishing cooperatives around the world have increasingly taken on co-management of commercial fisheries in recent decades, with generally positive results in meeting management targets and increasing economic value. To better understand which commercial fisheries or fleets are likely to form cooperative associations in the future, we utilized a database of management and fleet-level attributes for 106 fisheries-mainly industrial fisheries from the United States, New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom-to develop a predictive model. We considered two alternative definitions of cooperatives: a legal, operational definition that classified 51 of the fisheries as cooperatives, and a more stringent proactive definition that classified 35 of the fisheries as cooperatives. Random forest classification analyses showed that cooperatives of both types were most likely to form in fisheries with greater boat cost, greater level of participation in industry associations, and in fisheries with bycatch limits; strong regional effects were also observed. Cross-validation prediction accuracy levels were high: using 10 predictor variables, 86% and 91% of fisheries were correctly classified under the operational and proactive cooperative definitions, respectively. These predictions suggest which fisheries may be next to create cooperative fishing associations or engage in more proactive arrangements within cooperatives. These results point to which regulatory reforms, such as flexible bycatch restrictions, could lead to more cooperative behavior in fisheries.

Managing salmon for wildlife: Do fisheries limit salmon consumption by bears in small Alaskan streams?

Ecosystem-based management requires consideration of overlapping resource use between humans and other consumers. Pacific salmon are an important resource for both fisheries and populations of wildlife around the Pacific rim, including coastal brown bears (Ursus arctos); salmon consumption has been positively linked to bear density, body size, and reproductive rate. As a case study within the broader context of human-wildlife competition for food, we used 16-22 yr of empirical data in four different salmon-bearing systems in southwestern Alaska to explore the relationship between sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) availability and consumption by bears. We found a negative relationship between the annual biomass of salmon available to bears and the fraction of biomass consumed per fish, and a saturating relationship between salmon availability and the total annual biomass of salmon consumed by bears. Under modeled scenarios, bear consumption of salmon was predicted to increase only with dramatic (on the order of 50-100%) increases in prey availability. Even such large increases in salmon abundance were estimated to produce relatively modest increases in per capita salmon consumption by bears (2.4-4.8 kg·bear-1 ·d-1 , 15-59% of the estimated daily maximum per capita intake), in part because bears did not consume salmon entirely, especially when salmon were most available. Thus, while bears catching salmon in small streams may be limited by salmon harvest in some years, current management of the systems we studied is sufficient for bear populations to reach maximum salmon consumption every 2-4 yr. Consequently, allocating more salmon for brown bear conservation would unlikely result in an ecologically significant response for bears in these systems, though other ecosystem components might benefit. Our results highlight the need for documenting empirical relationships between prey abundance and consumption, particularly in systems with partial consumption, when evaluating the ecological response of managing prey resources for wildlife populations.

Fisheries management impacts on target species status.

Fisheries management systems around the world are highly diverse in their design, operation, and effectiveness at meeting objectives. A variety of management institutions, strategies, and tactics are used across disparate regions, fishing fleets, and taxonomic groups. At a global level, it is unclear which particular management attributes have greatest influence on the status of fished populations, and also unclear which external factors affect the overall success of fisheries management systems. We used expert surveys to characterize the management systems by species of 28 major fishing nations and examined influences of economic, geographic, and fishery-related factors. A Fisheries Management Index, which integrated research, management, enforcement, and socioeconomic attributes, showed wide variation among countries and was strongly affected by per capita gross domestic product (positively) and capacity-enhancing subsidies (negatively). Among 13 management attributes considered, three were particularly influential in whether stock size and fishing mortality are currently in or trending toward desirable states: extensiveness of stock assessments, strength of fishing pressure limits, and comprehensiveness of enforcement programs. These results support arguments that the key to successful fisheries management is the implementation and enforcement of science-based catch or effort limits, and that monetary investment into fisheries can help achieve management objectives if used to limit fishing pressure rather than enhance fishing capacity. Countries with currently less-effective management systems have the greatest potential for improving long-term stock status outcomes and should be the focus of efforts to improve fisheries management globally.

Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries.

There is growing awareness of the need for fishery management policies that are robust to changing environmental, social, and economic pressures. Here we use conventional bioeconomic theory to demonstrate that inherent biological constraints combined with nonlinear supply-demand relationships can generate threshold effects due to harvesting. As a result, increases in overall demand due to human population growth or improvement in real income would be expected to induce critical transitions from high-yield/low-price fisheries to low-yield/high-price fisheries, generating severe strains on social and economic systems as well as compromising resource conservation goals. As a proof of concept, we show that key predictions of the critical transition hypothesis are borne out in oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) that have experienced substantial increase in fishing pressure over the past 60 y. A hump-shaped relationship between price and historical harvest returns, well demonstrated in these empirical examples, is particularly diagnostic of fishery degradation. Fortunately, the same heuristic can also be used to identify reliable targets for fishery restoration yielding optimal bioeconomic returns while safely conserving resource abundance.

Global analysis of depletion and recovery of seabed biota after bottom trawling disturbance.

Bottom trawling is the most widespread human activity affecting seabed habitats. Here, we collate all available data for experimental and comparative studies of trawling impacts on whole communities of seabed macroinvertebrates on sedimentary habitats and develop widely applicable methods to estimate depletion and recovery rates of biota after trawling. Depletion of biota and trawl penetration into the seabed are highly correlated. Otter trawls caused the least depletion, removing 6% of biota per pass and penetrating the seabed on average down to 2.4 cm, whereas hydraulic dredges caused the most depletion, removing 41% of biota and penetrating the seabed on average 16.1 cm. Median recovery times posttrawling (from 50 to 95% of unimpacted biomass) ranged between 1.9 and 6.4 y. By accounting for the effects of penetration depth, environmental variation, and uncertainty, the models explained much of the variability of depletion and recovery estimates from single studies. Coupled with large-scale, high-resolution maps of trawling frequency and habitat, our estimates of depletion and recovery rates enable the assessment of trawling impacts on unprecedented spatial scales.

Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes.

Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

Modeling the impacts of two age-related portfolio effects on recruitment variability with and without a marine reserve.

Many rockfish species are long-lived and thought to be susceptible to being overfished. Hypotheses about the importance of older female rockfish to population persistence have led to arguments that marine reserves are needed to ensure the sustainability of rockfish populations. However, the implications of these hypotheses for rockfish population dynamics are still unclear. We modeled two mechanisms by which reducing the proportion of older fish in a population has been hypothesized to influence sustainability, and explored whether these mechanisms influenced mean population dynamics and recruitment variability. We explored whether populations with these mechanisms could be managed more sustainably with a marine reserve in addition to a constant fishing mortality rate (F) than with a constant F alone. Both hypotheses can be seen as portfolio effects whereby risk of recruitment failure is spread over a "portfolio" of maternal ages. First, we modeled a spawning window effect whereby mothers of different ages spawned in different times or locations (windows) with local environmental conditions. Second, we modeled an offspring size effect whereby older mothers produced larger offspring than younger mothers, where length of a starvation period over which offspring could survive increased with maternal age. Recruitment variability resulting from both models was 55-65% lower than for models without maternal age-related portfolio effects in the absence of fishing and increased with increases in Fs for both models. An offspring size effect caused lower output reproductive rates such that the specified reproductive rate input as a model parameter was no longer the realized rate measured as the reproductive rate observed in model results; this quirk is not addressed in previous analyses of offspring size effects. We conducted a standardization such that offspring size effect and control models had the same observed reproductive rates. A comparison of long-term catch, the probability of falling below a biomass threshold, and recruitment variability over a range of exploitation rates for models with an age-related portfolio effect showed no benefit of a marine reserve implemented in addition to a constant F (as compared to a constant F alone) for populations with sedentary adults and sedentary or mobile larvae.

Leadership, social capital and incentives promote successful fisheries.

One billion people depend on seafood as their primary source of protein and 25% of the world's total animal protein comes from fisheries. Yet a third of fish stocks worldwide are overexploited or depleted. Using individual case studies, many have argued that community-based co-management should prevent the tragedy of the commons because cooperative management by fishers, managers and scientists often results in sustainable fisheries. However, general and multidisciplinary evaluations of co-management regimes and the conditions for social, economic and ecological success within such regimes are lacking. Here we examine 130 co-managed fisheries in a wide range of countries with different degrees of development, ecosystems, fishing sectors and type of resources. We identified strong leadership as the most important attribute contributing to success, followed by individual or community quotas, social cohesion and protected areas. Less important conditions included enforcement mechanisms, long-term management policies and life history of the resources. Fisheries were most successful when at least eight co-management attributes were present, showing a strong positive relationship between the number of these attributes and success, owing to redundancy in management regulations. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of prominent community leaders and robust social capital, combined with clear incentives through catch shares and conservation benefits derived from protected areas, for successfully managing aquatic resources and securing the livelihoods of communities depending on them. Our study offers hope that co-management, the only realistic solution for the majority of the world's fisheries, can solve many of the problems facing global fisheries.

Space-time investigation of the effects of fishing on fish populations.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important statistical tools for obtaining ecological insight into species-habitat relationships and providing advice for natural resource management. Many SDMs have been developed over the past decades, with a focus on space- and more recently, time-dependence. However, most of these studies have been on terrestrial species and applications to marine species have been limited. In this study, we used three large spatio-temporal data sources (habitat maps, survey-based fish density estimates, and fishery catch data) and a novel space-time model to study how the distribution of fishing may affect the seasonal dynamics of a commercially important fish species (Pacific Dover sole, Microstomus pacificus) off the west coast of the USA. Dover sole showed a large scale change in seasonal and annual distribution of biomass, and its distribution shifted from mid-depth zones to inshore or deeper waters during late summer/early fall. In many cases, the scale of fishery removal was small compared to these broader changes in biomass, suggesting that seasonal dynamics were primarily driven by movement and not by fishing. The increasing availability of appropriate data and space-time modeling software should facilitate extending this work to many other species, particularly those in marine ecosystems, and help tease apart the role of growth, natural mortality, recruitment, movement, and fishing on spatial patterns of species distribution in marine systems.

Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited species.

One of the most pervasive themes in ecology is that biological diversity stabilizes ecosystem processes and the services they provide to society, a concept that has become a common argument for biodiversity conservation. Species-rich communities are thought to produce more temporally stable ecosystem services because of the complementary or independent dynamics among species that perform similar ecosystem functions. Such variance dampening within communities is referred to as a portfolio effect and is analogous to the effects of asset diversity on the stability of financial portfolios. In ecology, these arguments have focused on the effects of species diversity on ecosystem stability but have not considered the importance of biologically relevant diversity within individual species. Current rates of population extirpation are probably at least three orders of magnitude higher than species extinction rates, so there is a pressing need to clarify how population and life history diversity affect the performance of individual species in providing important ecosystem services. Here we use five decades of data from Oncorhynchus nerka (sockeye salmon) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, to provide the first quantification of portfolio effects that derive from population and life history diversity in an important and heavily exploited species. Variability in annual Bristol Bay salmon returns is 2.2 times lower than it would be if the system consisted of a single homogenous population rather than the several hundred discrete populations it currently consists of. Furthermore, if it were a single homogeneous population, such increased variability would lead to ten times more frequent fisheries closures. Portfolio effects are also evident in watershed food webs, where they stabilize and extend predator access to salmon resources. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of maintaining population diversity for stabilizing ecosystem services and securing the economies and livelihoods that depend on them. The reliability of ecosystem services will erode faster than indicated by species loss alone.